Tomorrow's trading on the ASX?

[Dona Ferentes]

drum roll ....

becoming a cacophony...

This is it! Surely tomorrow is the day ... at the very least make a new all time high on the S&P/ASX 200.

and a pictorial representation

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 stacks tidy gain to crack record, let the good times roll!

A shiny new record high close for the S&P ASX 200 – and in emphatic fashion too. Gold, Real Estate, and Consumer Discretionary stocks led the way with just one sector, Technology, falling behind.

www.marketindex.com.au

 

[debtfree]

Market Index - Monday Morning Wrap

ASX 200 futures are trading 51 points higher, up 0.64% as of 8:30 am AEST.

Small caps continued to run higher overnight while megacap tech stocks staged a small bounce after steep losses from the previous session, the market is almost certain we'll see a 25 bp Fed rate cut in September, Trump calls for the US to stand united after assassination attempt and UBS says a rotation in to small caps could persist for as long as four weeks.
Let's dive in.

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 to cross 8,000 for the first time, Dow tops 40,000, Investors pile into small caps

ASX 200 futures are trading 51 points higher, up 0.64% as of 8:30 am AEST.

www.marketindex.com.au

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and about time for a rotation to small caps.

 

[eskys]

• Market continued to rotate into cyclicals like small-caps, heavily shorted stocks, retailers, yield-sensitive sectors and commodities
• When the market experiences a significant one-day rotation from large to small caps, this trend tends to persist for the following four weeks, according to UBS
• Weekly benchmark recap: Russell 2000 (+6.0%), Dow (+1.59%), S&P 500 (+0.87%) and Nasdaq (+0.25%)
• Earnings expected to grow at fastest rate since Q4-21, sets up high bar this earnings season (Bloomberg)

 

[eskys]

Industry ETFs​

Mon 15 Jul 24, 8:21am (AEST)

Name	Value	% Chg
Commodities
Copper Miners	47.97	+1.48%
Lithium & Battery Tech	41.42	+1.37%
Strategic Metals	45.29	+1.30%
Steel	69.178	+1.14%
Gold Miners	38.17	+0.21%
Uranium	31.18	-0.26%
Silver	28.12	-1.95%

 

[debtfree]

Market Index - Monday Evening Wrap

The S&P/ASX 200 closed 58.3 points higher, up 0.73%.

It was a strong performance from Aussie stocks today, its third in a row, and enough to close the S&P/ASX200 above the psychological 8,000 mark for the first time.
Interest rates remain the key driver, with key benchmark yields tumbling Friday and helping the likes of Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate.
Metals and Energy stocks also prospered today, modestly, but this is perhaps a bonus considering falls in key commodities markets.
The spotlight on earnings is growing, with several big moves on FY24 guidance (Aussie Broadband (ABB) tanked vs Nanosonics (NAN) popped). Elsewhere, Lifestyle Communities (LIC) was battered on some very bad press.
For all of these big moves...and the rest...
Let's dive in!

Evening Wrap: ASX 200 smashes through 8,000 on rising tech, consumer, and property stocks

It was a strong performance from Aussie stocks today, with Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Real Estate driving gains. The spotlight was on Aussie Broadband (ABB), (NAN) and Lifestyle Communities (LIC).

www.marketindex.com.au

 

[BossMan.]

Keen to see what happens in the USA overnight as we head into tomorrow morning. As many commentators have outlined the assassination attempt pretty much cements Trump as extremely likely to win in November, off the back treasury yields rise, bad for equities.

Hope we don't lose all of todays gains in tomorrows trading if the above is how the big money interprets it.

 

[divs4ever]

Keen to see what happens in the USA overnight as we head into tomorrow morning. As many commentators have outlined the assassination attempt pretty much cements Trump as extremely likely to win in November, off the back treasury yields rise, bad for equities.

Hope we don't lose all of todays gains in tomorrows trading if the above is how the big money interprets it.

three UP days ( including a Friday , two new record highs

i will be prepared for some profit taking

if it doesn't happen my portfolio looks better as a consolation

watch for increased activity on 'reverse index stocks ' for signs traders are hedging their bets

cheers

 

[Dona Ferentes]

and the Quarterlies are starting to roll in..
.
ASX 200 futures are trading 4 points lower, down 0.05%..

Major US benchmarks ticked higher overnight but finished well-below best levels, the 'Trump Trade' – which includes a stronger US dollar, lower yields – gathers momentum after shooting. Powell says Q2 data is encouraging but won't offer any signals about upcoming policy decisions.

Morning Wrap: ASX 200 futures flat, Small caps extend gains, Trump-victory trades soar

ASX 200 futures are trading 4 points lower, down 0.05% as of 8:30 am AEST.

www.marketindex.com.au

 

[debtfree]

Now that was quick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Now that was quick

every so often a small victory

 

[TimeISmoney]

I reckon some analysts need a kick in the teeth to say Trump will cause deflation in the markets.

If anyone, Trump will help people in business because he's pro business, he'll give out millions to them.

Reversing climate control policies will free up millions in energy costs, which will counteract some of the inflation he'll cause.



Trump's last predentary period on the Dow Jones.
DYOR

 

[divs4ever]

I reckon some analysts need a kick in the teeth to say Trump will cause deflation in the markets.

If anyone, Trump will help people in business because he's pro business, he'll give out millions to them.

Reversing climate control policies will free up millions in energy costs, which will counteract some of the inflation he'll cause.



Trump's last predentary period on the Dow Jones.
DYOR

View attachment 180822

i expect Trump to put on more tariffs on selected imported goods ( which is still a stealth tax on consumers )

sure it might help ambitious US manufacturing and industry , but the consumer will still feel it in the wallet

 

[TimeISmoney]

i expect Trump to put on more tariffs on selected imported goods ( which is still a stealth tax on consumers )

sure it might help ambitious US manufacturing and industry , but the consumer will still feel it in the wallet

It's swings and roundabouts, a major transformation in US manufacturing is just all electoral talk, he'll free up corporate taxes, and business will prosper. You watch if he gets in, he'll help all his buddies in big business.

What's crippling the world ATM, is its energy prices because everyone wants to go green energy.

I'm not a big fan of Trump but It's just market manipulation by the big boys.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I reckon some analysts need a kick in the teeth to say Trump will cause deflation in the markets.
If anyone, Trump will help people in business because he's pro business, he'll give out millions to them.

Reversing climate control policies will free up millions in energy costs, which will counteract some of the inflation he'll cause.

definitely not deflationary. Anything but.

Overnight the market digested a higher chance of a Trump presidency and various ramifications. Markets perceive Trump as ultimately inflationary due to tariffs and restrictions imposed almost immediately with executive orders to put America first. This includes expansionary fiscal policy and will most certainly put pressure on the FED to cut. As an ex-property developer, you’ll recall Trump’s continuous pressure on Janet Yellen to cut rates during his last reign so expect the same on Powell if and when.

 

[divs4ever]

It's swings and roundabouts, a major transformation in US manufacturing is just all electoral talk, he'll free up corporate taxes, and business will prosper. You watch if he gets in, he'll help all his buddies in big business.

What's crippling the world ATM, is its energy prices because everyone wants to go green energy.

I'm not a big fan of Trump but It's just market manipulation by the big boys.

yes , despite i have my areas of disagreement , i would like to have seen the US citizens given a real view of RFK jr as a choice

would he have been different enough , who knows

but personally i will still be focusing my international investments on Asia ( with a reduced focus on China and Japan ) , NZ ( only a small puddle but easy to buy dominant market share ) with a watchful eye for opportunities in Africa and PNG

BTW i class India as part of Asia

but the BIG corporations ( and donors ) have controlled the major Western parties for decades

little will change until voters vote with their wallets ( boycott , reduce spending etc etc etc )

 

[TimeISmoney]

definitely not deflationary. Anything but.

Overnight the market digested a higher chance of a Trump presidency and various ramifications. Markets perceive Trump as ultimately inflationary due to tariffs and restrictions imposed almost immediately with executive orders to put America first. This includes expansionary fiscal policy and will most certainly put pressure on the FED to cut. As an ex-property developer, you’ll recall Trump’s continuous pressure on Janet Yellen to cut rates during his last reign so expect the same on Powell if and when.

I'm talking about deflating the stock market, analysts are reporting that Trump will cause (economic inflation) by making the prices of goods go up by introducing a tariff on cheap Chinese imported goods and trying to manufacture them at higher prices in the US.

 

[BossMan.]

It's swings and roundabouts, a major transformation in US manufacturing is just all electoral talk, he'll free up corporate taxes, and business will prosper. You watch if he gets in, he'll help all his buddies in big business.

What's crippling the world ATM, is its energy prices because everyone wants to go green energy.

I'm not a big fan of Trump but It's just market manipulation by the big boys.

What happens if trump gets in (not that im against it):
Phase 1: China tariffs lead to tariffs being placed back on the USA, excess supply from China flows to Europe
Phase 2: Excess supply in Europe leads to deflation resulting in the ECB dropping rates faster
Phase 3: Strong USD due to rate parity, increase in costs of items in USA as a result of tariffs = inflation (also decreases demand for US Exports)
Phase 4: Tax Cuts are inflationary in there very nature injects demand into the economy

If either of the candidates get in we are on the same trajectory of high deficits lots of spending and a bigger national debt. I think its important to highlight that tax cuts are inflationary, thats just a fact.

The reason the market was bullish under trump was because he was inflationary, at a time where inflation was below target

It's also important to note that the markets saw extreme growth off the back of QE which has ultimately f***ed every country and led us to our high rate environment.

If Trump gets in higher deficit, if Biden gets in higher deficit, both are inflationary, both are ****. Neither is better or worse for the markets.

 

[divs4ever]

I'm talking about deflating the stock market, analysts are reporting that Trump will cause (economic inflation) by making the prices of goods go up by introducing a tariff on cheap Chinese imported goods and trying to manufacture them at higher prices in the US.

yes but those increases will create more actual ( not government ) jobs and inflation because the ( actual ) economy is growing

i consider that 'healthy growth '; unlike the current pattern

also it should be better for small and medium businesses

and anyway the US stock market seems to be just 10 giant corporations they had to come back to realistic valuations eventually

 

[divs4ever]

What happens if trump gets in (not that im against it):
Phase 1: China tariffs lead to tariffs being placed back on the USA, excess supply from China flows to Europe
Phase 2: Excess supply in Europe leads to deflation resulting in the ECB dropping rates faster
Phase 3: Strong USD due to rate parity, increase in costs of items in USA as a result of tariffs = inflation (also decreases demand for US Exports)
Phase 4: Tax Cuts are inflationary in there very nature injects demand into the economy

If either of the candidates get in we are on the same trajectory of high deficits lots of spending and a bigger national debt. I think its important to highlight that tax cuts are inflationary, thats just a fact.

The reason the market was bullish under trump was because he was inflationary, at a time where inflation was below target

It's also important to note that the markets saw extreme growth off the back of QE which has ultimately f***ed every country and led us to our high rate environment.

If Trump gets in higher deficit, if Biden gets in higher deficit, both are inflationary, both are ****. Neither is better or worse for the markets.

if Trump returns the major change should be broader-based growth/inflation , now it that good or bad .. that depends on your strategy

some love capital gains others love returns on investment