- Joined
- 15 April 2007
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Thanks SGB. I printed this out and tried to follow it and can see what you mean [I think].
Is it unfair / fair to use a different timeframe or is there a "recommended" period? For example, if you read / analyse the chart from mid-April, or after TOL made their Virgin announcement, then do you get a different analytical outcome? Or is this non-TA think? [I suspect it is].
unfair/fair[QUOTE/],do you get a different analytical outcome? [QUOTE/], my prospective will be completly different to an invester as I trade in the here and now.
I hope this helps
SGB
Hi TB,
I don't own the stock nor do I know the fundamentals of TOLL, I actually trade this stock, but I can't help but comment on your $7.56 value price.(and please don't take this as being rude or aggressive, I can only see what I see.)
Firstly, the long term trend is down... dont fight it.
Secondly, it just got belted down through a Major Support area around $ 8.00 and its next Major Support area is around $6.00 where it began its Long Term bull run at the beginning of 2003 and 2006.
If there isn't any positive news or fundamental aspect to get it bullish again it might struggle to get through $ 8.00 again in the short term.
I hope it doesgo up again for long term investors because as I mentioned I'll trade this stock whichever direction it chooses to go.
Just be careful
SGB
i dont own any either but when i say i think around $7.50 is good value as someone who works in the industry i know what a great stock tol is long long term...know this by 2020 the freight task is set to double from current levels.
i havent looked lately at the price but it does seem its getting screwed real good as the fuel price surges(surely thats gotta be a short soon)as i said if it got lower then if you own then its a good time to average down..
i have said the patricks deal was a big mistake by toll trying to be too big headed instead of sticking to trucks,look at the virgin stake now not worth...could have bought some really good transport companies with only about half the 6b they paid for patricks..
the 2 toll should have bought are linfox & k&s(ksc) plus its half owners other company scotts of mt gambier(biggest b/double fleet on the eastern seaboard)...tb
k&s are only small BUT a new container park is being built next to their sydney yard soon.(they are like a division of scotts(private)..)
i understand were you come from on a short term trading basis whereas myself for toll i look at it as a very long term whether its $7.50 or $6.00..
cheers tb
http://www.linfox.com/linfox
http://www.ksgroup.com.au/corp/
Hey TB and others
Anyone know whats Tolls position RE: the upcoming Carbon trading scheme.
Depending on the final rules...Toll and all the transport operators will be very
exposed to downside risk if they fail to adapt to the new business conditions.
Has Toll done anything to lessen the downside risks?
All the down side risks are still there.
- Impact of carbon trading.
- Margins squeezed by fuel prices.
- Economic slow down
- Market sentiment
So its not hard to make a case for further SP falls....still on the upside all
transport operators are in the same boat (truck) so TOL as a market
leader is in a better position to weather the storm and come out on top.
Last week In the Industrial park where i work, a small transport company (10 trucks)
went under and called in the receivers....as the slowdown continues, its the small
players that will fold and the big operators left to carry on.
Do you have any further info on this by anychance as in a time frame and costs, likely hood of it actually happening ect
Copyright 2003 Toll Transport Pty Ltd Trading as Extra Transport Group Pty Ltd
I see toll back to the $7.50 level i spoke about some months ago,watched closely as the bad news of the $700m loss loomed & punters sent it down to $5.90,what a sensational buy it was at that price for very long termers like myself,as predicted the virgin stake was off loaded & now there is nothing to hold it back.
...tb
Yer,,,, Nice call TB.
I hope you picked some up at that bargain price.
Good luck with it.
SGB
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