Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

TOL - Toll Holdings

On two occasions recently I've had truck drivers (employees of large freight companies) tell me pretty much the same thing. Freight yards are "empty" and there isn't much being transported apart from Coles / Woolworths and specific bulk commodities.

Getting investment advice from truck drivers is probably a bit like the proverbial taxi driver giving advice, but I've no reason to doubt their observations about the business they are directly employed in. It's apparent from just dealing with them too - they're not in a hurry to drop things off and get going these days like they always used to be.

I really wonder why that is. With the advent of online shopping, you'd think there'd be more goods being transported.
 
I really wonder why that is. With the advent of online shopping, you'd think there'd be more goods being transported.
I took it to be a reflection of a downturn in general.

Construction industry is down that's easy to spot, and it means less building materials being transported from brick works, timber mills etc.

Retail seems to be struggling too - things get transported whether it's to Myer / David Jones or from overseas. It all goes on a truck at some point.

That's just two examples which come to mind.
 
I started buying TOL a few weeks ago with a longer-term view - hence the weekly chart.
Could have bought a few cents lower, but as long as it holds that long-term support at $4.25, I intend to stick around and treat last week's dip as a side effect of general market jitters.

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The Daily chart confirms the somehow better opportunity - isn't hindsight great! :cautious:
The inviting gaps overhead also suggest more upside potential if the falling trendline resistance can be overcome.

TOL am 19-11-12.gif
 
Some positive news out on TOL today.
Always find it interesting that the stock price moves up days before the news comes out :rolleyes:
 

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I think with the increasing pressure on companies, to extract profit in a tighter market, transport of product will be outsourced.
Toll may capitalise on this, if they are nimble, which they haven't displayed in the past.IMO:D

I do hold, would like to add, but am yet to be convinced.:rolleyes:
 
TOL closing above $6.00 gives me a warm fuzzy feeling that the Aussie economic outlook might be improving.

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TOL closing above $6.00

Perhaps all the parcels I've had delivered by Toll in my post-xmas spending spree have helped push their profits up! :D

I must say that I'm impressed with the way parcels can be tracked and the notification system that Toll have in place. Received an email on the day of delivery advising the parcel would be delivered that day. Great service. Friendly delivery bloke too. I had a few parcels from Kogan and I think he's a part-time Kogan salesman as well (jk); we spent a while talking about Netflix and Kogan's range of 4K TV's.
 
TOL closing above $6.00 gives me a warm fuzzy feeling that the Aussie economic outlook might be improving.

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it's the oil price I am guessing, people are probably factoring higher profit margin due to declines in the cost of fuel.


Perhaps all the parcels I've had delivered by Toll in my post-xmas spending spree have helped push their profits up! :D

I must say that I'm impressed with the way parcels can be tracked and the notification system that Toll have in place. Received an email on the day of delivery advising the parcel would be delivered that day. Great service. Friendly delivery bloke too. I had a few parcels from Kogan and I think he's a part-time Kogan salesman as well (jk); we spent a while talking about Netflix and Kogan's range of 4K TV's.

Toll are certainly one of the best parcel delivery companies, they are more expensive though.
 
It is a bit sad another Aussie company goes to O/S buyers.
But on a personal note "you ripper", just bought a big parcel at $6 for the upcoming dividend.

Yeah, also another large cap fully franked company soon to be plucked out of the ASX.

But having done the same as yourself, fairly happy chappy.
 
It is a bit sad another Aussie company goes to O/S buyers.
But on a personal note "you ripper", just bought a big parcel at $6 for the upcoming dividend.

Yeah, also another large cap fully franked company soon to be plucked out of the ASX.

But having done the same as yourself, fairly happy chappy.

Well done you two. I am still picking up my jaw off the floor on the premium being paid. TOL's never traded too far North of $6 for the last 6 years. I guess you can afford to pay a lot when the Yen essentially comes free.
 
It amazed me how badly TOL performed relative to the increase in online shopping.
Low Ausi $$ and seismic shift in fuel costs make it look attractive.
The Japs will need to make more of it than the management has for the past 13 years to justify the price. But who cares you can borrow billions for nothing at the moment. Why not!
 
Got lucky. In at $6.12. Enough upside to elicit an involuntary smile. No shadow boxing. On with it.

:cool:
 
I need some advice please. I have some CFD TOL. Up 46%. Is this the right time to sell? I got in at $6.20 a couple of weeks ago.

What are some likely scenarios with the take over bid? How should one approach this?
 
I need some advice please. I have some CFD TOL. Up 46%. Is this the right time to sell? I got in at $6.20 a couple of weeks ago.

What are some likely scenarios with the take over bid? How should one approach this?

Can't provide you advice but there are possibilities of events:
1) offer goes through as stated
2) offer is blocked by Foreign review board
3) offer is voted down by shareholders
4) Another competing offer is put forward

It's up to you to figure out any more potential scenario's and what the chances are of any occuring, then make your own decision that you can live with!
 
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