It's possible that the market is slowly coming to the view that TOL has been oversold these last few months. At least, that's my view and I'll be looking to get set if the upturn is confirmed.
TOL - Toll Holdings
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It's possible that the market is slowly coming to the view that TOL has been oversold these last few months. At least, that's my view and I'll be looking to get set if the upturn is confirmed.
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anyone think its worth my time trying to average out on this stock at the moment? still down a fair way from when I bought. I still plan to hold long term.
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The shareholder report which came out recently was an interesting read, should be on their website somewhere also. 
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Very quiet on TOL's page. Has hit sub $5, and is a very strong company in the scheme of things. Yes its a falling knife at the moment, but the price is beginning to get real tempting. Not sure what is going on behind the scenes though...
Alot of it is global uncertainty, combined with the management change.
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Re: TOL - Toll Holdings - TAX help needed
Hi Guys,
I need some pointers in regard to working out the cost base on my tol shares.
I originally purchased shares in Patrick Corp years ago and in March 2009 PRK was taken over by TOL. I have re-read the announcements and it seems that I received 0.4 TOL shares as part of the T/O.
At the time TOL shares were trading at $14.05. Do I use this as my purchase price?
The only reason why I need to know is that I received AIO shares from TOL which I sold and need to calculate the cap loss.
Hi Guys,
I need some pointers in regard to working out the cost base on my tol shares.
I originally purchased shares in Patrick Corp years ago and in March 2009 PRK was taken over by TOL. I have re-read the announcements and it seems that I received 0.4 TOL shares as part of the T/O.
At the time TOL shares were trading at $14.05. Do I use this as my purchase price?
The only reason why I need to know is that I received AIO shares from TOL which I sold and need to calculate the cap loss.
skc
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Re: TOL - Toll Holdings - TAX help needed
Depending on the tax ruling on the takeover there may be CGT relief for the takeover. What that means is that takeover was not deemed a CGT event and your cost base is just what you've paid for the old Patrick shares. But you really need to check yourself - I am sure it's on the internet somewhere!
Not sure about AIO spin off and the cost base to that...
Depending on the tax ruling on the takeover there may be CGT relief for the takeover. What that means is that takeover was not deemed a CGT event and your cost base is just what you've paid for the old Patrick shares. But you really need to check yourself - I am sure it's on the internet somewhere!
Not sure about AIO spin off and the cost base to that...
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Thanks for your reply SKC.
I have found the info on the net, but its just all going over my head.
I'm going to print it all out and take it to the accountant, I'm sure he can work it out.
I dont think it will matter too much, because I bought PRK when I first started trading then ended up with 0.4 TOL shares, then a handful of AIO shares from that so the sum involved is fairly small.
I have found the info on the net, but its just all going over my head.
I'm going to print it all out and take it to the accountant, I'm sure he can work it out.
I dont think it will matter too much, because I bought PRK when I first started trading then ended up with 0.4 TOL shares, then a handful of AIO shares from that so the sum involved is fairly small.
So_Cynical
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Toll looks really cheap...the SP has been smashed lately with the 4 year chart looking rather depressing, the SP is in a 30 month decline with the current SP actually below the GFC low and in fact according to big charts, at an 11 year low.
And yet the last profit down grade wasn't that big a deal...perhaps the market is anticipating another one, i would imagine so, perhaps its Tolls exposure to retailing that's the issue. :dunno: Global growth :dunno: perhaps we will see a bounce off the bottom trend line. :dunno: anyway i have placed an order with my super fund.
~
And yet the last profit down grade wasn't that big a deal...perhaps the market is anticipating another one, i would imagine so, perhaps its Tolls exposure to retailing that's the issue. :dunno: Global growth :dunno: perhaps we will see a bounce off the bottom trend line. :dunno: anyway i have placed an order with my super fund.
~
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Toll looks really cheap...the SP has been smashed lately with the 4 year chart looking rather depressing, the SP is in a 30 month decline with the current SP actually below the GFC low and in fact according to big charts, at an 11 year low.
And yet the last profit down grade wasn't that big a deal...perhaps the market is anticipating another one, i would imagine so, perhaps its Tolls exposure to retailing that's the issue. :dunno: Global growth :dunno: perhaps we will see a bounce off the bottom trend line. :dunno: anyway i have placed an order with my super fund.
~
I agree the sp looks cheap and beaten up however there is no competitive advantage here and switching costs for customers are low. This industry is a bit like airlines if I can save $1 with your competitor you had better match it or I will walk, also requires major capital investment.
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Take a look at the fundamentals - I think it explains the decline in SP over the past 5 years.
EPS has not increased since 2008 - 37 cents then and forecast to be 38 cents this year.
ROE is about 10% which is actually inflated due to the 40% debt level
My view is that the Share Price has reduced to meet its intrinsic value of around $3.60. Its price used to be inflated through the PE ratio with the market hoping for growth that never came. The market has rerated it with a PE of around 10 which is more reflective of its stagnant growth.
EPS has not increased since 2008 - 37 cents then and forecast to be 38 cents this year.
ROE is about 10% which is actually inflated due to the 40% debt level
My view is that the Share Price has reduced to meet its intrinsic value of around $3.60. Its price used to be inflated through the PE ratio with the market hoping for growth that never came. The market has rerated it with a PE of around 10 which is more reflective of its stagnant growth.
skc
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Toll looks really cheap...the SP has been smashed lately with the 4 year chart looking rather depressing, the SP is in a 30 month decline with the current SP actually below the GFC low and in fact according to big charts, at an 11 year low.
And yet the last profit down grade wasn't that big a deal...perhaps the market is anticipating another one, i would imagine so, perhaps its Tolls exposure to retailing that's the issue. :dunno: Global growth :dunno: perhaps we will see a bounce off the bottom trend line. :dunno: anyway i have placed an order with my super fund.
~
The latest update says EBIT ~$400-420m. NPAT is ~65% of EBIT in previous years, so a rough guess of NPAT is ~$267m, or 37cps. At $3.86 it's trading at PE ~10.4. It's not expensive depending on your outlook but not a bargain either.
On another measure - EBITDA is ~$700m. Market cap is currently $2.77B + debt of $1.7B makes enterprise value ~$4.47B. EV/EBITDA = 6.4x which looks cheaper. Perhaps that's why there are private equity rumours on TOL recently.
So_Cynical
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All true and globally more relevant than the Australian situation, and Toll is a global player...in Aust, Star track express has recently merged with Aust air express (Qantas/post), so the realistic Aust wide choice just got a little smaller shrinking from 4 to 3....and its still a very big business, that's some sort of advantage.
In Aust there is a logistics Triopoly....as far as serious volumes go.
Still good to get some quality comments, thanks to SKC and RottenValue as well.
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Heard on the grape vine they had the worst day profit/loss experienced in the past 16 years last week.
Anyone confirm the rumor?
Anyone confirm the rumor?
skc
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For the company or the share price?
Certainly not the case for the share price as it has had some nasty moves before.
And what does a one-day P/L for the company even mean or matter?
Time to seek clarification from the grape vine...
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Ok to clarify.
Not talking about share price.
I am talking about how much revenue they generated in one day, which was the lowest in a number of years last week...
It means the wheels are falling off the transport industry at the moment, they are all suffering. Which means retail will be suffering..
Not talking about share price.
I am talking about how much revenue they generated in one day, which was the lowest in a number of years last week...
It means the wheels are falling off the transport industry at the moment, they are all suffering. Which means retail will be suffering..
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Ok just to clarify.
They had the lowest number of Con-Notes signed off over a 7 days period that has ever been recorded.
I have noticed Toll pushing hard into the mining, oil and gas sectors. Still thinking they could be a winner long term (2+ years) at todays prices.
They had the lowest number of Con-Notes signed off over a 7 days period that has ever been recorded.
I have noticed Toll pushing hard into the mining, oil and gas sectors. Still thinking they could be a winner long term (2+ years) at todays prices.
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On two occasions recently I've had truck drivers (employees of large freight companies) tell me pretty much the same thing. Freight yards are "empty" and there isn't much being transported apart from Coles / Woolworths and specific bulk commodities.
Getting investment advice from truck drivers is probably a bit like the proverbial taxi driver giving advice, but I've no reason to doubt their observations about the business they are directly employed in. It's apparent from just dealing with them too - they're not in a hurry to drop things off and get going these days like they always used to be.
