TOL - Toll Holdings

[SGB]

Thanks SGB. I printed this out and tried to follow it and can see what you mean [I think].

Good stuff.

Rick[/QUOTE]

Hi Rick,

As mentioned in a previous post, I am a trader,I trade for a living so I need constant cashflow.Therefore my whole analysis is based on T/A, pure price patterns and behaviours in the very short term. Basiclly my time frame is a Daily Chart.

After reading the posts on this page of the thread,and this stock is one that I trade, I had a hunch that the majority of interested posters were more inclined to be fundamental longterm investers and therefore I posted the Monthly longterm chart to give a better insight of the possibilities/probabilities and how value is interpreted.

Is it unfair / fair to use a different timeframe or is there a "recommended" period? For example, if you read / analyse the chart from mid-April, or after TOL made their Virgin announcement, then do you get a different analytical outcome? Or is this non-TA think? [I suspect it is].

To a trader (short term)value means nothing and announcements will only change price action in that moment( the here and now).Therefore a trader will adapt proactivlely to any price action change that may have occurred after the announcement was made.

Whereas an invester (fundamental longer timeframe), value is a key element for their investment over a longer period of time and the announcement may have an impact over their strategic decision, wether positive or negative.

But you also must remember that all stocks are dealt with emotional reaction. Everyone ( investers) must agree that the news will be positive in the longer term for a higher price.

Therefore to answer your question,

unfair/fair[QUOTE/],

do you get a different analytical outcome? [QUOTE/], my prospective will be completly different to an invester as I trade in the here and now.

I hope this helps

SGB

 

[tigerboi]

Re:FREIGHT TASK TO DOUBLE BY 2020

Hi TB,

I don't own the stock nor do I know the fundamentals of TOLL, I actually trade this stock, but I can't help but comment on your $7.56 value price.(and please don't take this as being rude or aggressive, I can only see what I see.)

Firstly, the long term trend is down... dont fight it.
Secondly, it just got belted down through a Major Support area around $ 8.00 and its next Major Support area is around $6.00 where it began its Long Term bull run at the beginning of 2003 and 2006.
If there isn't any positive news or fundamental aspect to get it bullish again it might struggle to get through $ 8.00 again in the short term.
I hope it does go up again for long term investors because as I mentioned I'll trade this stock whichever direction it chooses to go.

Just be careful

SGB

i dont own any either but when i say i think around $7.50 is good value as someone who works in the industry i know what a great stock tol is long long term...know this by 2020 the freight task is set to double from current levels.

i havent looked lately at the price but it does seem its getting screwed real good as the fuel price surges(surely thats gotta be a short soon)as i said if it got lower then if you own then its a good time to average down..

i have said the patricks deal was a big mistake by toll trying to be too big headed instead of sticking to trucks,look at the virgin stake now not worth...could have bought some really good transport companies with only about half the 6b they paid for patricks..

the 2 toll should have bought are linfox & k&s(ksc) plus its half owners other company scotts of mt gambier(biggest b/double fleet on the eastern seaboard)...tb

k&s are only small BUT a new container park is being built next to their sydney yard soon.(they are like a division of scotts(private)..)

i understand were you come from on a short term trading basis whereas myself for toll i look at it as a very long term whether its $7.50 or $6.00..
cheers tb



http://www.linfox.com/linfox

http://www.ksgroup.com.au/corp/

 

[SGB]

Re: FREIGHT TASK TO DOUBLE BY 2020

i dont own any either but when i say i think around $7.50 is good value as someone who works in the industry i know what a great stock tol is long long term...know this by 2020 the freight task is set to double from current levels.

i havent looked lately at the price but it does seem its getting screwed real good as the fuel price surges(surely thats gotta be a short soon)as i said if it got lower then if you own then its a good time to average down..

i have said the patricks deal was a big mistake by toll trying to be too big headed instead of sticking to trucks,look at the virgin stake now not worth...could have bought some really good transport companies with only about half the 6b they paid for patricks..

the 2 toll should have bought are linfox & k&s(ksc) plus its half owners other company scotts of mt gambier(biggest b/double fleet on the eastern seaboard)...tb

k&s are only small BUT a new container park is being built next to their sydney yard soon.(they are like a division of scotts(private)..)

i understand were you come from on a short term trading basis whereas myself for toll i look at it as a very long term whether its $7.50 or $6.00..
cheers tb



http://www.linfox.com/linfox

http://www.ksgroup.com.au/corp/

Hi TB

I have started reading the last few pages and have to say you do a good job in your fundamental analysis. There are aspects of the company I never knew about which has given me some insite to what the company is about.

Thats the beauty of feedback.. everyone gets to acknowledge what they didn't know, which is called learning.

Keep up the good work.

SGB

 

[tigerboi]

Re:I WORK IN THE TRANSPORT INDUSTRY

I have a good insight i believe into this sector as i work at the pointy end,the truck...i was just reading KSC half yearly report today,21% profit on revenue of $200m,only a small company but its growing all the time,very well run.these are the type of bolt ons TOLL need not pie in the sky airlines/ports.

As ive said before TOLL has always been an interstate linehaul company with these days many divisions,general,cars,tankers,wharehouses,couriers,nqx..
little should of just kept rolling up the transport companies...imagine what TOLL couldve of done with linfox,synergies of hundreds of millions.that was a very big miss that...patricks with its rubbish AIO assets worth.

anyway i see TOL still around the $7.25 mark today holding well...wont be long before TOL buys a few more companies...tb


TOLL,TRIPLE AT PARDOO

 

[tigerboi]

Re:TOLL READY TO POUNCE ON DESPERATE OPERATORS BLEEDING DUE TO THE FUEL PRICE

Toll looked over scotts/pure when abn amro bought them,paul little was right about this type of freight...no value,fridge transport has extra fuel usage as the fridge motors run on diesel as well,plus there is a lot of double handling & most drivers hate pulling fridge vans(too noisy if you are doing interstate & if the highway is closed you cant get a sleep).toll took over refridgerated roadways some years ago but only for the trucks,toll only do fridge work in 3pl 3rd party logistics...no money in it...

This week has seen a few more companies fold due to the fuel price,scotts/pure the biggest,howard haulage,nikitaras tpt...i expect toll to take advantage of a few of these who need to sell off their fleets..

AWesfarmers consortium recently took over bunkers freightlines including 4 other carriers,that buy out has been the talk of the industry as bunkers only sub contract so only the trucks not any work is what wes.get...

If you look at how virgin & asciano($71m loss this half) are going atm you can see why i think toll lost direction instead of sticking to what it always has been good at trucks/transport...instead of those buys toll sould have focused on 2 companies...linfox which ive showed would be going real well.plus tnt.

toll could have bought tnt & linfox for around the same price or less for the $6b paid for patricks,now if you look at asciano which comprises pac nat railways & patricks ports they where poor performing assets before the buy out,the rail assets have capacity restraints in the hunter valley coal haulage areas.

with virgin getting slammed i expected toll to see sub $7.00 & possibly $6.00 as suggested here recently,so for toll to hold around $7.00-$7.25,tells me more anns.on aquistions are on the way...

linfox has been in china since 1984...

tnt would have given toll a huge base in europe.

tnt is originally an aussie transport company,taken over by the dutch mail company,tnt is listed on the nyse(tnt)has a market cap of$3.5b...us.
...tb

or maybe:http://www.startrackexpress.com.au/


Forensic accountant KordaMentha has been appointed receiver and manager to the Cold Chain haulage and storage business of transport company, Pure Logistics, with a view to selling the business as a going concern.
Cold Chain operates a national temperature-controlled haulage and storage business for frozen and chilled goods.
KordaMentha said secured lenders had appointed the firm receivers after working with Cold Chain for an extended period to resolve the company's difficulties.
KordaMentha representative Janna Robertson said the primary aim of the administration was to sell the business as a going concern and Cold Chain would continue to operate, while expressions of interest were being sought.
"We are in discussions with a number of interested parties," she said.
"Our priorities are ensuring an orderly transition of the customers and employees to a buyer who is able to ensure continuity of service to customers and continuity of employment."
The Cold Chain division employs about 360 people, and about 100 contractors.
Ms Robertson said the priority entitlements of workers were secure and would be paid as per normal, while subcontractors would be paid for their work "in the ordinary course of business".
The operations of McColls, a related transport and logistics company which has operated under the Pure Logistics brand, are unaffected, KordaMentha said



tnt 1st quarter report 2008 & PRESENTATION:http://group.tnt.com/images/20080326_tnt_corporate_information_tcm31-299116.pdf

 

[So_Cynical]

Hey TB and others

Anyone know whats Tolls position RE: the upcoming Carbon trading scheme.

Depending on the final rules...Toll and all the transport operators will be very
exposed to downside risk if they fail to adapt to the new business conditions.

Has Toll done anything to lessen the downside risks?

 

[tigerboi]

Re:CARBON TRADING..WHAT A RORT.

Hey TB and others

Anyone know whats Tolls position RE: the upcoming Carbon trading scheme.

Depending on the final rules...Toll and all the transport operators will be very
exposed to downside risk if they fail to adapt to the new business conditions.

Has Toll done anything to lessen the downside risks?

What a rort this carbon trading is...just another excuse for knobs like al gore to make money...

yep real good idea... we fail to meet outrageous targets so we end up paying compo to countries that have run their industries into the ground..re:ex soviet bloc countries...tb

go to the website...the way the price of fuel is going,the greenies will get their way soon as we go back to the dark ages.

dont burn coal...use candles
dont drive cars & trucks...ride a bike(ever seen a bike carry 34 pallets?)

go down to the sea & piss in it...theres australias contribution to the greenhouse pollution dribble...

wake up this is garbage

 

[SGB]

Chart Update.

With higher oil prices that are still pressuring logistic operations we still continue to see a drawdown in TOL’s price action.

As pointed out in a previous post the upper channel line continues to be strong resistance if you are in a long position. On the other hand it represents support for a short position. I have included on the chart, swing positioning, where by swing traders are likely to enter or add to their positions. (just some learning insight)

So where to now?

If oil prices continue to rise it would seem logical that $6.00 is a primary target area.

The 2 major signs for a reversal to the long side are:

A breakout above the channel line and
Demand to overbalance Supply, which is the opposite now.

SGB

 

[SGB]

Chart Update


The break out of the channel has finally been revealed in today’s action.

As previously put forward in previous posts a price target of $6.00 and 100% retracement from the lows of 2006 has finally been reached, or there abouts, which in turn made some fairly hefty gains today on increasing volume.
A much better sign than previous months especially when oil also made gains overnight.

So where to now?
Is it time for a correction in oil?

If this is a real sustainable move and not just another continuation pattern, higher highs with higher lows will now have to be formed over the coming months. Will also be on the lookout for any other patterns that form, which may include double bottoms, inverted head and shoulders, triangles, rectangles, to name a few, to confirm any true trend reversal.

Another good signal is a confirming price target over $7.00 and then turning the $8.00 resistant barrier into support.

But the biggest concerns though, that could send the price lower, are the projections that are being placed on oil prices at the moment.

Still....watching with interest.

Any other thoughts?

SGB

 

[So_Cynical]

All the down side risks are still there.

• Impact of carbon trading.
• Margins squeezed by fuel prices.
• Economic slow down
• Market sentiment

So its not hard to make a case for further SP falls....still on the upside all
transport operators are in the same boat (truck ) so TOL as a market
leader is in a better position to weather the storm and come out on top.

Last week In the Industrial park where i work, a small transport company (10 trucks)
went under and called in the receivers....as the slowdown continues, its the small
players that will fold and the big operators left to carry on.

 

[SGB]

All the down side risks are still there.

• Impact of carbon trading.
• Margins squeezed by fuel prices.
• Economic slow down
• Market sentiment

So its not hard to make a case for further SP falls....still on the upside all
transport operators are in the same boat (truck ) so TOL as a market
leader is in a better position to weather the storm and come out on top.

Last week In the Industrial park where i work, a small transport company (10 trucks)
went under and called in the receivers....as the slowdown continues, its the small
players that will fold and the big operators left to carry on.

I hope you covered your shorts. :.... for the short term at least.

Chart recoverying a bit now with an uptrend trading channel formation.

 

[tigerboi]

Re: TOL to takeover EXTRA transport

As ive reported elsewhere toll is working on the buy out of extra transport in melbourne,big container mob...tb

http://www.extratransport.com.au/public/?

 

[shmi]

Do you have any further info on this by anychance as in a time frame and costs, likely hood of it actually happening ect


Thanks mate.

 

[marklar]

Do you have any further info on this by anychance as in a time frame and costs, likely hood of it actually happening ect

Copyright 2003 Toll Transport Pty Ltd Trading as Extra Transport Group Pty Ltd

Looks like it's already done...? Although I suspect the copyright date is Extra's and not Toll's

m.

 

[tigerboi]

Re: TOL-back to $7.50

I see toll back to the $7.50 level i spoke about some months ago,watched closely as the bad news of the $700m loss loomed & punters sent it down to $5.90,what a sensational buy it was at that price for very long termers like myself,as predicted the virgin stake was off loaded & now there is nothing to hold it back.

Still waiting on more news in regards to the extra takeover & i expect a few more buy outs after xmas.as for asciano my mate that works there says they are just running it into the ground,AIO wont spend any money...straddle breaks down?park it over there & it doesnt get fixed.

...tb

 

[Naked shorts]

Why dont they deliver to P.O. Boxes.... its stupid that they dont. They are keeping a major competitor alive "Australian Air Express" by not doing anything about it.

 

[SGB]

Re: TOL-back to $7.50

I see toll back to the $7.50 level i spoke about some months ago,watched closely as the bad news of the $700m loss loomed & punters sent it down to $5.90,what a sensational buy it was at that price for very long termers like myself,as predicted the virgin stake was off loaded & now there is nothing to hold it back.



...tb

Yer,,,, Nice call TB.

I hope you picked some up at that bargain price.

Good luck with it.

SGB

 

[Nicks]

At the end of the day a good company and a well run company is still a good company and a well run company, despite a fear market. Investors should (and possibly are) be running to companies like TOLL.

Good company = good debt levels, high barriers to entry, good strategic position (largest in Aus), low elasticity of consumer demand, high organic growth available, and probably one of the best CEOs going around.

 

[tigerboi]

Re: TOL-back to $7.50

Yer,,,, Nice call TB.

I hope you picked some up at that bargain price.

Good luck with it.

SGB

i see toll today rip back to $7.00 still a great buy at that price but with them panic sellers id love it to see $6.00 again & if it does ill do my best to get on the sub list!ive predicted the xjo to see the 3 year low of around 4400 so ill just wait again for some more $6.00 or less?...got a feeling $6.50 might be its low but i can hope.

standby for more toll aquistions soon...tb

 

[tigerboi]

Re: TOL back to $5.50 ish

hi maklar mate hows it going? see toll back around $5.50 ish,great price imo.
with fuel heading lower toll will benefit from that,just wonder with asciano looking likely to be broken up with the road transport divisions maybe going to linfox,would toll be allowed to take some of ascianos distressed assets?accc??

i say that as in times like these its when the chief man little loves to scoop up the bargains,maybe a few over in cuzzy bro land?

tell you a transport company that does it good,SCT i was down at their altona depot 3 weeks ago,the trump mr smith just bought 5 new trains & he runs 5,000 tonnes a trip over to perth,reckon its a super monster in the making as the freight cars he uses gives him big effeccencies,he can load all his freight from the side with the forks able to drive in whereas everyone else has all their freight in a container.good fit for toll sct would be...tb

check it out mark...http://sct.net.au/