TOL - Toll Holdings

[marklar]

Nice to see TOL close above $8, the chart (attached) has a nice curved bottom since gapping down after the Virgin Blue announcement.



Will be interesting to see how the company goes after the BALtrans acquisition is bedded down, expansion into China is a good move IMHO.

m.

 

[MRC & Co]

On another note, looks like there could be accumulation of TOL taking place at the moment.

This accumulation has broken out.

Confluence seen here with the strong accumulation creating a decent support base and the gap overhead 'needing' to be closed. This gap close would also be a 50% retracement from the high to the low of the recent down wave, so this close should see some solid resistance and would probably be a good shorting opportunity or an opportunity to get out for those long.

Cheers

 

[roland]

This accumulation has broken out.

Confluence seen here with the strong accumulation creating a decent support base and the gap overhead 'needing' to be closed. This gap close would also be a 50% retracement from the high to the low of the recent down wave, so this close should see some solid resistance and would probably be a good shorting opportunity or an opportunity to get out for those long.

Cheers

I agree, without being technical, I bought at $8.00, sold today at $8.60 - gut feeling tells me to take profit and play another day

Actually the resistance seemed a little more solid yesterday at $8.50

 

[tigerboi]

One more australian company mr little has always wanted over anything else...linfox..once he off loads virgin he will make a bid for linfox,current price about $1.1b...young fox wants to sell but the old man doesnt...tb..

 

[MRC & Co]

I agree, without being technical, I bought at $8.00, sold today at $8.60 - gut feeling tells me to take profit and play another day

Actually the resistance seemed a little more solid yesterday at $8.50

Well you never know, at least you took some profit, but I would have a target (though I don't like targets, gaps are one of the few trades I use them to gather some idea) here of around $9.30-$9.35. Infact, in this instance I would sell if that target is reached, due to the confluence of strength at that resistance point as stated earlier.

 

[marklar]

One more australian company mr little has always wanted over anything else...linfox..

Wonder if the ACCC would let him...? Wonder what is planned for all that cash from the kiwi government? Perhaps this speculation is behind the share price bump??

I hold & wait patiently...

m.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Wonder if the ACCC would let him...? Wonder what is planned for all that cash from the kiwi government? Perhaps this speculation is behind the share price bump??

I hold & wait patiently...

m.

I think toll have a whole heap of investment oportunities infront of them especially expanding overseas,.... it's just a matter of getting there hands on the funds at this stage,.... so the kiwi sale should help with that,...

 

[tigerboi]

Wonder if the ACCC would let him...? Wonder what is planned for all that cash from the kiwi government? Perhaps this speculation is behind the share price bump??

I hold & wait patiently...

m.

I think toll have a whole heap of investment oportunities infront of them especially expanding overseas,.... it's just a matter of getting there hands on the funds at this stage,.... so the kiwi sale should help with that,...

Fellas take it as gospel, toll will make a bid for linfox,had virgin performed better, than it would be on the cards soon,as for the accc??linfox is a private company so i dont think it can be stopped?

As someone who works in the transport industry i was very disappointed when little took patricks(but as with finemores it was personal)as it was a poor buy simply because toll tried to get clever by taking ports & rail,look at AIO now...rubbish assets not worth .

Toll got away from what they are...trucking company,interstate freighters & instead of going to patricks he should of made lindsay fox an offer he couldnt refuse.

As to AIO getting hammered from $11.00 to $4.76 today thats not just because their assets are poor...get this..mac bank(the underbidder on the patricks deal) are screwing AIO real good as they will make a bid for AIO in the future...

Toll should have stuck to their bread n butter...trucks,still there is a few more listed transport companies they could have bought if they couldnt get linfox...k& s & scotts of mt gambier have the biggest fleet of b-doubles on the eastern seaboard...would be a good buy..right now...

 

[tigerboi]

Hot off the press...as i said toll should stick to what they know best...trucks,should apply for the job of which mob to buy next..tb

Australia's largest freight company, Toll Holdings, has acquired New Zealand's United Carriers trucking company after the suitor recently sold its rail and ferry operations in that country.

The transport operator said it had signed a conditional purchase agreement for the trucking business, which had an annual turnover of about $NZ50 million ($A41.7 million).

"United is a very complementary acquisition for Toll. It expands our existing businesses in New Zealand into Northland where our presence was previously limited," Toll managing director Paul Little said in a statement.

United Carriers has a fleet of 220 trucks and services a number of industries, including livestock, logging, warehousing and international freight forwarding.

Toll said it would fund the purchase through working capital.

The transport operator this week sold its New Zealand rail and ferry operations to the New Zealand government for $NZ665 million ($A554.26 million) to focus on its goods-forwarding business in Asia.

 

[marklar]

...and another one today...

"Toll Holdings, the Asian region’s leading provider of integrated transport and logistics services, has reached an agreement on the purchase of West Australian based Courier Australia. "

so they're vacuuming up the little 'uns while waiting to offload Virgin Blue, have to think there's something big in the pipeline though.

m.

 

[tigerboi]

As i said mate...linfox...put your house on it,littles crowning glory,very much like the rio bhp drama,like 2 heavyweights going 12 rounds...however that said toll does have some debt...tb

 

[Muschu]

Like many others I am trying to work out where TOL is heading. Down today in an up-market?
OK - so is this progress or a misinterpretation?
If I look at a 1 month chart for TOL with an 18 day moving average [from the day after the Virgin announcement] then do we have a chart that is possibly suggesting an uptrend? [Or is this time frame too short?]
An SMA of 50 days gives quite a different chart....

Comments please.

 

[explod]

Like many others I am trying to work out where TOL is heading. Down today in an up-market?
OK - so is this progress or a misinterpretation?
If I look at a 1 month chart for TOL with an 18 day moving average [from the day after the Virgin announcement] then do we have a chart that is possibly suggesting an uptrend? [Or is this time frame too short?]
An SMA of 50 days gives quite a different chart....

Comments please.

If we average out the last two months on the chart we are going sideways at an average of about $8.50. The volume gradually dropping over the last 3 weeks tells me this condition and pirce will stay till news or different factors come in fundamentally.

The rising cost of oil could have a positive (for example) as TOL can move large quantities fairly economically. But this part of the bottom line can take 12 months to be realised by the market.

 

[oldblue]

Toll did a very good deal in selling the NZ rail operations back to the NZ govt.
As part of the deal, Toll is keeping the profitable freight forwarding and road transport operation and is said to have kept its favourable terms with Rail in this regard. In addition, the NZ Govt has given Toll a 6 year rent free period on the property used by the ff and rt business. One commentator estimates this to be an effective subsidy of NZD 70m over the six years.

 

[tigerboi]

I dont hold any toll but the $8.50 price i believe is a bargain when you consider the cash now ready to take over more transport companies,if you go back to before the patricks takeover toll was around $14.00.

From someone who works in the industry & understands the workings of a trucking company,little would be circling a target now,that cash wont sit around on its own..for me $8.50 looking into the future with the cash from the nz deal & the sale of virgin in the next 12 months.

I get the feeling little will scoop up a few little fish now but hes got bigger fish to fry in the next 18 months.i think there is still at least 25% run still to come..up to $10.50-$10.75 by xmas...tb

 

[oldblue]

I don't hold TOL either and I'd also be keen on them at this price if it wasn't for the airline. I can see that holding back the SP - unless, of course, the shareholding can be offloaded.

 

[Muschu]

Hi
I'd be interested in any thoughts on the downward movement over the past few days. The chart for the past month looks pretty ordinary. Are we heading back to the $7.50 mark or thereabouts?
Regards
R

 

[roland]

In my opinion, anything sub $8.50 is an absolute bargain for TOL. I bought last week at $8.00 and sold at $8.60, back again today at $8.30.

AEGIS have a 12 month target of $11.38 with the current yield of 2.4% to an expected 2009F yield to be 3.0% and have the following Outlook commentary:


The earnings outlook for TOL is good, with high single-digit revenue growth and expanding margins through FY08 and FY09. TOL has made guidance for a payout ratio of approximately 40% and with interest cover in high double-digits, the dividend is not at risk. Earnings will be contingent on successful acquisitions, as we expect TOL to be a high-growth stock. We forecast high-single digit organic growth from its existing businesses over the near term.


I'll be hanging around with opportunistic short to medium term approach and will hold for longer term without worry if short term trading goes astray.

 

[Muschu]

In my opinion, anything sub $8.50 is an absolute bargain for TOL. I bought last week at $8.00 and sold at $8.60, back again today at $8.30.

AEGIS have a 12 month target of $11.38 with the current yield of 2.4% to an expected 2009F yield to be 3.0% and have the following Outlook commentary:


The earnings outlook for TOL is good, with high single-digit revenue growth and expanding margins through FY08 and FY09. TOL has made guidance for a payout ratio of approximately 40% and with interest cover in high double-digits, the dividend is not at risk. Earnings will be contingent on successful acquisitions, as we expect TOL to be a high-growth stock. We forecast high-single digit organic growth from its existing businesses over the near term.


I'll be hanging around with opportunistic short to medium term approach and will hold for longer term without worry if short term trading goes astray.

Thanks Roland. What do you think the place of charts is in your analysis? My novice view of the charts is that the stock looks ordinary.
Also: FNArena cites 4 analysts with a Buy on TOL and 4 with a Hold. All of these, bar one, were made in May. The average Target Price is $9.91.

Be nice to "know" would it not? [To dream....]

 

[roland]

Thanks Roland. What do you think the place of charts is in your analysis? My novice view of the charts is that the stock looks ordinary.
Also: FNArena cites 4 analysts with a Buy on TOL and 4 with a Hold. All of these, bar one, were made in May. The average Target Price is $9.91.

Be nice to "know" would it not? [To dream....]

Hi rick, I am not a chart analyst, but find them very interesting and have a lot of respect for people who use use charts in a technical manner. I use charts for a historical critique and for snapshotting the trend. I would never buy a stock without bringing up the chart.

Regarding your comment about the chart looking pretty ordinary, well it sort of depends on the time frame you are looking at - try expanding the chart to take in a couple of years, or decrease your time frame to 2 months. Without doing this myself right now for TOL, I am sure that each chart would give you a different perspective .... yes????

A pessimist would see a falling chart as a sign of weakness, an optimist would see the fall as an increasing chance to buy at a low. Depends on your outlook