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The transition to Futures trading

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kid hustlr said:
ta guys.

so Canoz I gather one of the best uses for this structure is to help you develop with whether we could be looking at a range day (I believe you call them brackets?) or a break out day. interesting
Click to expand...

Yeah, determining the day type, balance or imbalanced, makes a big difference in trade opportunities. I've lost count how many times I've been caught fading a trend or trying to buy breakouts in a balanced market. The pace of trade also gives a few clues too with range trade around value being slow and choppy.

If price is riding up the outside of the standard deviations after an open outside of value, then its not something I'm going to fade until it tests a prior VWAP (VWAP being the center line of the bands) and finds some responsive selling.

The big confluences are used to find the real key areas where significant buying or selling could occur.
 
The Pre Cash open was in value, but the cash open looks to be out of value.
 
We've basically opened up in value as evidenced by the slow choppy trade already...so my plan will be to look for plays around the extremes of value. Will also wait to see how wide the range is at 90 minutes.

Edit: the Dax just saw the Prior VWAP rejected with some pretty heavy hitting on the bid. We might get a trend day after all...
 
Although lots of selling on the Dax the FTSE has seen lighter selling pressure so far. Still real choppy slow trade...

I think i'll be taking sim trades off the VWAPs today, this is pretty sleepy action...:headshake
 
Argh, took a long in the ftse based on what I deemed to be a test of supply on the 1m. Got taken out for a small loss, it once again retested the lows on a much better set up and now goes up. I was a little to ansy to get in!

Also think I will stick to the 3min as my major chart tool and look for confluence on the 1m, Agreed with what Pav spoke to me about in that the 1m can produce some noise.

EDIT: part of this is still learning how the market trades and how my ideal set ups evolve, my thoughts and views for this trade were ideal I just need to recognise how they play out a little better. For example in this case I shouldn't have been in a rush to enter.
 


I can't recall a period where the trade was so slow though, seems like is just no interest either way really...

I mean usually the Dax in September is pretty active...this is like summer again....
 
tech/a said:
Boggo should be able to get to this quicker than I with M/T predictor.A/GET (my E/W software) will give a more expanded view.
Ill do that tonight.
Click to expand...

Sorry tech/a, away from my charting computer until tomorrow (Thur) arvo, can post any suggestions then if it's still of value.
 
CanOz said:
I can't recall a period where the trade was so slow though, seems like is just no interest either way really...

I mean usually the Dax in September is pretty active...this is like summer again....
Click to expand...

Something woke them up just then!
 
6540 is the prior VWAP, looks like 6536 is now value, its done the majority of todays volume. Thats changed the bearish picture for now...
 
I liked the setup @15 near todays low and previous resistance.

Possibly the start of a push up in the coming days? Good low risk area for a position trade if it begins to push back up to resistance?
 
pavilion103 said:
I liked the setup @15 near todays low and previous resistance.

Possibly the start of a push up in the coming days? Good low risk area for a position trade if it begins to push back up to resistance?
Click to expand...

wow, this market is on drugs today...lol

We're now one timing in the other direction as shorts bail out...
 
The way this is going we may have another new value area today, that's three ...if we could push through the 6572 then we could really see some shorts running for the door...

- - - Updated - - -



6559 has now done the majority of volume today...unreal. I've only seen this happen once or twice in that last 18 months.
 
After having another look at the monthly I don't think a lot has changed.
I think we are just seeing testing of the long term resistance levels.
The swings in this pattern are 50% from zero!!



I still expect to see 6850-7000 tested.
To me while there is some "Puff left and i think it will be persistent
the position trade is short---eventually.
 
The euro has been on a one way street for the last four hours as well...
 
Here are the trade i should have taken, but these are on sim as i was not game to fade that last move...I think there could be a long opportunity off the VWAP again when it retests it...
 

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  • selling at the highs t.jpg
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Here is a bar by bar look at that last top on the FTSE...All that selling and it refused to move, had me thinking if it went higher the shorts would tripping over themselves to get out....good for the journal.
 

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kid hustlr said:
Do you mean as per the line shown on the chart? This is one I see a bit and seems to work pretty well. <img src="https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=54531"/>
Click to expand...

That's right.
Similar to what I was looking for for that first long setup before it broke below, remember.
 
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