The transition to Futures trading

[>Apocalypto<]

The DAX,

from wanting to quit trading one moment to starting to see some light now. it's a hell of a market and really tests your mental composure. CL had it's moments bu never felt mentally drained as with trying to get somewhere with the DAX.

went through 5 ideas till reaching this point. made brokers a bit of coin while getting cut to sheds most weeks.

think i am finally onto something... but a little early to call a sure thing. I tried 4 different time frames to finally settle on the 1 min. thought about this for a while. 1 min we all hear it's to hard to read and trade. for me atm it's the only time frame i can use with any accuracy. spent a lot of time on 5 min 3 min 2 min thinking the 1 min was a waste of time.

traded live and demo since Dec last year trying and trying to find something. nonstop screen time every day. this post is more a emotional release then anything as my wife thinks i dumb trading and none of my mates would care to hear it all out. sorry ASF you're all i have. I tried and tried on MT4 to trade the DAX but i could never get any ware. I don't think it's possible with MT4. Once i switched to Ninja Trader i started to progress quickly.

I have been using FXCM through NT and thankfully i got trade station to look just like Ninja and I can read it like Ninja. Trading off chart trader is a killa best use it for free with a plug in due to the coms and buying cost. so i was a bit depressed this week as using Ninja was costly. tried one final time on MT4 failed badly. thankfully I got trade station with FXCM to be as close to NT as I need. Tonight's Live trades 2nd post.

Demo from May till his week below from ninja. all 1 min 1-12 point wins. basically trade trend changes. Just started live trading with FXCM tonight will give it a few months. Goal is to go back to Interactive and trade the DAX Future off Ninja with Book Trader... but full size futures are a while away yet. feel like i am finally getting it, on the sort term but 1 month from now I might be back to square one. this is the longest I have been profitable week to week using this approach.

cheers for reading.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

The DAX,

Tonight's live trades

 

[tech/a]

Hi AP

Good to see another who enjoys the challenges of the DAX.

I note you have come to similar conclusions to myself.
The DAX has enough volume and range to trade 1min bars.
I also find it conforms to many VSA and old School ( T/A ) setups.
Mind you the higher timeframes in my opinion shouldn't be ignored.
A longterm position can be a game changer.

You can also hop on a run with confidence and pick up very quick profits.
It opporates in a comfortable timeframe for Aussi traders.

For me it's DAX and HSI if you want to trade index futures.

 

[Gordon7]

Hope it all goes well for you Apocalypto.

I don't trade Futures but in my opinion on the higher frame daily chart the DAX looks to be the most vulnerable for a possible sharp move to the downside as it has been for a while. Next few days are critical. Best outlook over the medium term is for some sideways action to digest the sharp run up off the October 2014 lows.

 

[avion]

Good going Apocalypto, nothing beats screen time.

 

[tech/a]

Hope it all goes well for you Apocalypto.

I don't trade Futures but in my opinion on the higher frame daily chart the DAX looks to be the most vulnerable for a possible sharp move to the downside as it has been for a while. Next few days are critical. Best outlook over the medium term is for some sideways action to digest the sharp run up off the October 2014 lows.

You can trade long or short.
Skill of the technician to hop on the coat tails of the big movers.

 

[Gordon7]

You can trade long or short.
Skill of the technician to hop on the coat tails of the big movers.

Yes indeed.

As a side note to my potentially bearish outlook statement below, I don' have any volume data for the DAX but I would like to see the volume data on the daily chart over the last half year or so and then look around the March April highs for any evidence of supply.

 

[debtfree]

Yes indeed.

As a side note to my potentially bearish outlook statement below, I don' have any volume data for the DAX but I would like to see the volume data on the daily chart over the last half year or so and then look around the March April highs for any evidence of supply.

Gordon7: At the moment I use bigcharts website to view the DAX futures with volume if it's any help to you.

When putting in the code I put in DAX and it will bring up a box which then I go down and select:
DE DAX DAX INDEX (EUREX) JUNE 2015
Go to advance chart and select indicators that you want such as volume.
You can see back to the start of the year.

Hope this helps .... Debtfree

 

[CanOz]

Yes indeed.

As a side note to my potentially bearish outlook statement below, I don' have any volume data for the DAX but I would like to see the volume data on the daily chart over the last half year or so and then look around the March April highs for any evidence of supply.

As requested, here is the DAX. The Bund (bonds in general) is/are taking a hammering as well, i guess its the Greek thingy still/bottom of the rates....

The DAX rejected the bottom of the bracket yesterday but we haven't got a good short covering rally yet. I suspect things might be tame, barring any big Greek news, until NFP is out of the way. Although the last couple of weeks has seen some pretty good volatility and good ranges for the day time frame trader.

As for the volume, it looks like the selloffs have been on volume...i don't use VSA so i can't comment on what the volume on a daily basis can be interpreted as. The bracket low was tested yesterday and its a major reference now. I'm sure the profiles will have some great references on the upper side of the recent range.

 

[CanOz]

The Shanghai Index....lots of big moves here. You can trade a good proxy for this with the Xina50 contract out of the SGX.

 

[Gordon7]

Thanks CanOz for the chart.

From what I can see the volume at the peaks doesn't tell me much but interesting to see the rally to the lower high into mid May had little participation.

I fully expect the bunds to continue to decline in the fullness of time (and that's got nothing to do with the chart).

I've seen enough of these patterns (of which there are a few aspects to them) to know that the index is vulnerable to a sudden sell off at this point. Whilst the probability of this is still low (15% at a guess at this point) in terms of risk/reward in a short time frame it is something to bear in mind.

 

[CanOz]

Thanks CanOz for the chart.

From what I can see the volume at the peaks doesn't tell me much but interesting to see the rally to the lower high into mid March had little participation.

I fully expect the bunds to continue to decline in the fullness of time (and that's got nothing to do with the chart).

I've seen enough of these patterns (of which there are a few aspects to them) to know that the index is vulnerable to a sudden sell off at this point. Whilst the probability of this is still low (15% at a guess at this point) in terms of risk/reward in a short time frame it is something to bear in mind.

Yeah, the Bund and the Bobl will be the focus of my Euro session attention for a while. I agree that fundamentally it seems a good short. Mind you I'm only going on what the bond kings are saying, but the technical story agrees. I'm mostly just interested in the intra-day volatility and the opportunity that it presents.

 

[barney]

The DAX,

I tried and tried on MT4 to trade the DAX but i could never get any ware. I don't think it's possible with MT4.

cheers for reading.

Good to see you still at it Joe. I also agree the 1 minute on the Dax sheds the most light .... then again I think that's true for Index trading in general. I think its still important to check the daily range/moves plus the 4hr/1hr just in case you get caught chasing shadows (like I did earlier this week)

Is the reason you don't like MT4 for the Dax to do with the "synthetic" Volume??

Cheers.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

2nd live day with FXCM was really scared tonight, think my J225 position sell was playing on my mind. that was stopped out for -127. Looked like a range break to the downside but it was sucked back in.

DAXI
Three trades tonight watched a heap go past was feeling a bit rabbit in the head lights so ended up with three. 10pts off the three. was scared to hold and enter... will look at the market again around 8ish. or might call it night if i looks like a flat Friday.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi AP

Good to see another who enjoys the challenges of the DAX.

I note you have come to similar conclusions to myself.
The DAX has enough volume and range to trade 1min bars.
I also find it conforms to many VSA and old School ( T/A ) setups.
Mind you the higher timeframes in my opinion shouldn't be ignored.
A longterm position can be a game changer.

You can also hop on a run with confidence and pick up very quick profits.
It opporates in a comfortable timeframe for Aussi traders.

For me it's DAX and HSI if you want to trade index futures.

Agree T/A very nice time slot you can trade for a few hours and go to bed. DAX is one of the most amazing main markets I have seen mind you the DOW can really run as well. Ive looked at the Daily DAX but to scared of how far it can counter. Yeh if you nailed one talking 400+ points makes CL tame. what happened in here I remember yourself Pav where very active. Is Pav still trading?

Hope it all goes well for you Apocalypto.

I don't trade Futures but in my opinion on the higher frame daily chart the DAX looks to be the most vulnerable for a possible sharp move to the downside as it has been for a while. Next few days are critical. Best outlook over the medium term is for some sideways action to digest the sharp run up off the October 2014 lows.

Thanks, i still have L plates on 2 months ago i was ready to give short term away. was step forward two back, repeat repeat. see how this travels time is the true con firmer.

Personally for me i never try to work out were a market is going... My position trading (not that flash) is all trend break based like my ST.

Good going Apocalypto, nothing beats screen time.

yeh it's a great teacher, sitting there watching looking working out why this reversal turned in to a run and why others did not.

Good to see you still at it Joe. I also agree the 1 minute on the Dax sheds the most light .... then again I think that's true for Index trading in general. I think its still important to check the daily range/moves plus the 4hr/1hr just in case you get caught chasing shadows (like I did earlier this week)

Is the reason you don't like MT4 for the Dax to do with the "synthetic" Volume??

Cheers.

Hi Barney,

good to hear from you. yeh still chipping away. I started on 5 min and 3 min then 2min ended up on he 1min. but the flip of the 1min is the speed on the open things move real fast and you can get crap entries at times. I find after 730-11-30 there's some nice clean moves and it moves a lot slower. but you have to watch out for ranges. i don't check anything as I all i trade a short term trend change.... but what i do means little for how you look at it.

MT4 you know I have thought about this for a fair while. I think mt4 it geared to make you emotional, the way the data is displayed makes you think something is something when its not something if that makes sense. i don't like the way the data is displayed. and personally I'll never you MT4 ever again. this is not the first time i have felt this way.

i might be being stupid but even with my daily position trades i felt the urge to trade more on MT4 i might be crazy who knows.

 

[cynic]

Rotten night. Fairly appropriate way to end the rotten week i've had. Lots of juicy price action occurred right around the time my broker/provider's platform decided to malfunction. Coudn't get through to them on the phone either. All in all a FTSEing great way to end a very FTSEd up FTSEing week. Still expecting a call back from them so that I can voice my concerns in a very loud and emphatic manner!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Rotten night. Fairly appropriate way to end the rotten week i've had. Lots of juicy price action occurred right around the time my broker/provider's platform decided to malfunction. Coudn't get through to them on the phone either. All in all a FTSEing great way to end a very FTSEd up FTSEing week. Still expecting a call back from them so that I can voice my concerns in a very loud and emphatic manner!

if you don't mind me asking? who's your broker Cynic?

 

[cynic]

if you don't mind me asking? who's your broker Cynic?

They still trade under the name City Index despite having been acquired by Gain Capital last year.

Whilst I do at times grumble about them, I must confess to the fact that the service they've been delivering (thus far) is still superior to that offered by many of their competitors.

I am, of course, being a bit wary on account of the recent change of ownership (but am hopeful that their reassurances prove correct).

I'll be quite interested to see how their platform performs during next month's NFP and will be adjusting my opinion accordingly.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

They still trade under the name City Index despite having been acquired by Gain Capital last year.

Whilst I do at times grumble about them, I must confess to the fact that the service they've been delivering (thus far) is still superior to that offered by many of their competitors.

I am, of course, being a bit wary on account of the recent change of ownership (but am hopeful that their reassurances prove correct).

I'll be quite interested to see how their platform performs during next month's NFP and will be adjusting my opinion accordingly.

see how they go, good to hear there are positives as well. i can give a good reco for FXCM atm finding fills fast and no slippage so far. i was thinking about City before i went with fxcm for this small acc.

NFP you have courage i steer clear of it.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

still feeling like i am going to implode anytime so still lacking confidence to just trade. still spending time on the demo... i really shouldn't have given MT4 that last shot has damaged my confidence a lot.

anyway, took three trades tonight 2wins and a loss. Net 9 points. going to call it a day might have another look around 9pm tonight. DAX had some nicer clean trends tonight. missed a few but slowly slowly