The transition to Futures trading

[ThingyMajiggy]

It gets easier the more you trade or watch live trading.
I check only the 30 min ant 9 min for control and then the 3 and 1 for the noise which makes up the days trading.
I can see 1000 go through in a min and that's when I want to know whether it was buying or selling.
These are directional trades
They get out either side in dribbles so you wont see them.

Larger timeframes only for S&R levels of importance.

So about 5 mins tops.

Ill also know in 5 min wether Im in Sync.
If I just Don't get it Ill leave.
If I do its like reading a book you wrote!

Yeah sounds good, similar to myself. Kind of know what I'm looking for and what it looks like anyway, it almost doesn't make much difference I find, if I'm watching it and its looking like turning or some big players are coming in, that's all you need to know, doesn't really matter what point it is in history I don't think, it's how its reacting to it NOW and where it going to go. Seen plenty of "big" supp/res areas get totally demolished in a matter of seconds, all depends who's playing and where they want to do business in the here and now.

 

[tech/a]

DAX so far tonight and looking forward a bit

 

[tech/a]

Here is the test right on time.




SMASH goes support (Local)

 

[debtfree]

Looks like testing the lows of the last few day, do you think?

 

[tech/a]

This is an excellent chart of Cause and Effect.

 

[tech/a]

Time to leave this move although I believe the predominant long term direction is short.

Debtfree
testing of 11800 is highly likely

 

[debtfree]

I was watching it on Big Charts - 15 minute bar and seen the reversal on larger volume. As you said time to leave, don't hope ... just trade what's happening in the now time. Good lesson for me, nice job tonight and thanks for the charts.

 

[fiftyeight]

Good charts Tech thanks for putting them up. Will have a closer when I can.

Cheers

 

[tech/a]

WOW missed that 100 ticks in a few minutes!

 

[tech/a]

So its pulled up after massive buying then massive supply.
This is going to consolidate and I thought it would be good to watch the consolidation and see if we cant determine a direction for a trade.



So I'm flavoring long right now but if it becomes a wide pattern and not small and short then I will favor a change of direction to short.

How many bars 15 +
A small continuation pattern is generally less than 7
No mans land in between!

 

[tech/a]

A few minutes ago.

 

[tech/a]

Bit of a non event so I'm not going to trade tonight.
I get bored easily!

 

[Lone Wolf]

I've been out of the loop for a while. Trying to relearn again.

We had a strong push up on high vol through previous highs.
A much lower vol pullback.
An even lower volume small range up bar.

Any opinions on how this should be read?
If this was at the end of an up trend rather than breaking into new highs, I would have said the very high vol up bar followed by a down bar is selling. Weak up bar says buyers gone.

But this time I thought -
Very high vol up which is expected as it breaks the previous high and takes out the orders up there.
Lower vol down bar indicating not many sellers around to hammer it.
Weak up bar says not enough sellers to take control. Let the up move continue.

Obviously it did sell off. But considering a minor pullback after a break above previous highs, what would I want to see in the pullback to indicate a continuation upwards?

 

[tech/a]

This 15 min chart shows lots of effort to push prices higher but
no real result from price moving much higher.
Below is the 1 min chart which shows lots of churning.
I'm currently short but finger on the trigger to reverse if that's what is
the final outcome of the struggle.

 

[tech/a]

Reversed

 

[tech/a]

Reversed again

 

[tech/a]

Grinding ------ Stop at B/E If hit that's enough for me.



Out at old support 12002

Hard work.
Thats it for tonight sorry not more
to see.

 

[tech/a]

And now it smashes down. Without me!
Here is the final trade. 30 ticks tonight
Left a lot on the table with the first 2 trades
and now this last one.
Not un happy-----just average trading.

 

[Mdean]

Nah you probably still haven't got it. What was S/R an hour ago may no longer hold, or it may. Actions have consequences. That's the problem with static thinking and a chart example of 'this is how I trade'. The chart I posted a few days ago and the process was completely different to what I did yesterday. If you want an answer to that bit I underlined you will be in for a long and frustrating

No you misunderstand how large traders accumulate size (and the cunning ones). If you are a 500 lot trader you don't just hit the buy button and smash out for 500 lots into the market then do the opposite to get out. If you move size you have to go for large moves simply because it takes time to get in and get out. Now given that - you have to do a few things. Use that size to maximum advantage, protect yourself from being wrong because you haven't got stops (think about that for a while its important)and take entries and exits when people are spewing orders because that is where the volume is. See the chart that I used the other day for what is happening.

1. You have large volume as its gapped down and kept on going down as people sell into an 'oversold' market that actually has some nice divergence. If you are Mr Big on every push down you hit up get nice fills creating those nice up trust bars.

2. Now this needs some thought. Who would be stupid enough to be supplying large volume into up trust bars to new highs? Its clear someone is covering shorts and new traders are entering break out plays by buying but who would be stupid enough to sell into that?? People with large amount of holdings. Its the perfect time to lighten the load from what you accumulated at 1. What happens next? Panic dies down, demand drops, prices fall back into the old range as the break out dudes take heat and spew orders. Mr big is smiling as he has already booked a good profit on 1/3 of his holdings and his thinking "ok where can I top up?"

3. The nice safe up trend breaks as demand keeps on falling and all the new longs take more heat. Mr Big who has been sitting back and is still bullish as all stink, has a good size from much lower and some room to take on more. As the trend breaks its clear because the volume picks up that people are selling but who would be stupid enough to buy? Someone has to be on the other side. Its Mr big protecting his position. Oldest trick in the book. Read Reminiscence of a Stock Operator. It moves back into the old range,

4.Supply dramatically dries up. Up she goes to new highs.

5.More high volume trades. Lots of break out trades and panic shorts but who would be stupid enough to sell into that? I mean its new highs dude!- let it run! You know who it is, Mr big getting out and supplying all the volume.

TH, this post was really helpful, thanks for the detailed explanation.

 

[Bayronus]

After reading this entire thread over the last week I'm a little sad to see it has died down. I have gained a lot of insight from everyone's contributions and it has given me a lot to think about in terms of my own trading journey so I thank you all that have contributed. I hope to be able to contribute or at least pick your brains when this thread picks up again. For the moment though I'll keep reading and learning, testing and simming and continue to improve my trading.

Thanks again to everyone who has made this thread what it is.

P.S.
PAV - I hope you're feeling better mate.