The transition to Futures trading

[tech/a]

Interesting read at the start of play tonight.



Worth a post I thought.

 

[tech/a]

As expected but boring

 

[tech/a]

Now 20 min later ---not so boring.



Didnt pause for long
Nothing stopping this fall
No Effort.

 

[tech/a]

Well here is the effort to sell off!!

I now expect a pause so I'm out
A good night



I hope the commentary helps some.
And it looks like its pulled up too!

Why out on that bar as its falling?

3 bars of well over average volume this is showing an
exhaustion of sellers. Once gone (As it wont be big players because the volume is too low!)
The buyers will stop being smashed by supply.
So things will stop---like this---until another effort either pushes back up or back down
I---will be asleep!

 

[Nortorious]

Thanks for posting tech/a. Always interesting and educational looking at your charts with commentary.

I am practicing on the mini DJIA tonight as I have set up a new demo account with a firm that I was referred to and testing out their platform etc.

I'll probably be trading the FTSE and FESX when I get serious about these markets and have time to watch and get a feel for how they operate etc.

 

[fiftyeight]

3 bars of well over average volume this is showing an
exhaustion of sellers. Once gone (As it wont be big players because the volume is too low!)
The buyers will stop being smashed by supply.

VSA still perplexes me

So the smart money would likely have been set at around the same point as you? Then as the longs exited (forced to buy at cheaper prices) and new shorts entered the price was driven down.

Then the big spike I have highlighted which you did not cover?

I assume your stop was at BE, must of got pretty close?

Prices pulls back with no real volume after the spike so the sellers step in and price continues to fall.

Then (your highlighted area) the price is marked down quickly to then cover larger positions (rise in volume) indicating the larger players are done for now? But the bit in bold you say it wont be big players, do you mean the big players have not covered and are likely still short?

 

[tech/a]

I see your problem.
It's very common when first introduced to VSA
Your thinking is what I call conventional volume
Price reaction. The hard thing is that you have to
think in the exact opposite to convention.

I'll have some time tonight to walk through all points that
You have made.

 

[tech/a]

Let me see if we cant get some better understanding.
58 or anyone who wants to join in.

This is live----

CLICK TO EXPAND

What are the important points to observe?

 

[skyQuake]

Let me see if we cant get some better understanding.
58 or anyone who wants to join in.

This is live----

CLICK TO EXPAND

What are the important points to observe?

View attachment 62035

Looks like a lot of effort to push through 12000 at 8:00, 18:00 and 8:00 again today. Lots of volume and nothing to show for it.
Heading lower imo

 

[Chris.M]

Heading lower imo

I would agree with skyQuake. The bars have a large range which looks like its trying to push up, however its pushing up into a resistance zone with volume getting less and less.

On the second last bar, once it reaches the zone it closes on the low. There doesn't appear to be any interest in pushing it through the zone, so in my opinion its not succeeding and will head lower.

 

[tech/a]

Ok so we like resistance so would go short.
I did.
At this point I switch to a lower time frame

.


2 min.

 

[Chris.M]

The first bar looks like an attempt to push up but it get's knocked down on some reasonable volume. Its important because if there was interest in this move going higher, it should have pushed through overcoming the supply, but it hasn't.

That second bar appears to be some demand coming in. You would expect that this would trend further down given the failed attempt to go higher, but with that bar I'd say its going to pause here and go side ways for a little while. More bars are probably needed to determine where it might after that.

 

[tech/a]

I've gotta go and closed out a while ago but.

The high was signaled with the long tail and low close.
The previous top wasn't taken out so stops for current shorts all OK.

The bar which clearly shows strength in my view Longs are selling into strength. (Covering)

Price falls then pretty quickly when the next chart happens and My Que for exit.
I was of the pinion the last few lows would be tested but when the first wasn't and there was a quick
reversal on low volume after a number of bars on higher volume My suspicion is that this is going to range as one side builds or distributes.---Longs selling into strength.

Just enough to lighten long positions---not get out and run south but take some profit.
Not enough volume on 2 min bars to show really strong presence.

You'll see it if and when it comes.



This will range until the big guys finish distributing around the 12000 mark.

 

[skyQuake]

My comments in blue.

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

So you all agree that it was going lower, but it didn't? Not then anyway, did a little later. Slightly confusing these last few posts. I was watching the DOM at the time and had a different read(that worked for me) but curious to see a clear explanation(although now in hindsight) from tech etc.

EDIT: That came across a little aggressive haha, my bad. Didn't mean it that way, just found it interesting that weakness was the general consensus but it seemed to push higher first, then come off to new lows, seems to happen a fair bit, kind of like spotting the "main" move early in day?

 

[tech/a]

So you all agree that it was going lower, but it didn't? Not then anyway, did a little later. Slightly confusing these last few posts. I was watching the DOM at the time and had a different read(that worked for me) but curious to see a clear explanation(although now in hindsight) from tech etc.

TMJ
Price at the right hand edge of the page did exactly as expected right up to my exit at the reversal shown on my last chart.

My suspicion is that this is going to range as one side builds or distributes.---Longs selling into strength.

Which is exactly what it did for the rest of the night.
Until one side either buys in with huge volume and moves the market back up again
Distribution will keep happening until buyers are beaten to death and re treat or the big guys smash it down.

Both you'll see if it happens.

What your missing is that with futures you have more than buyers and sellers.
You have an ongoing battle of covering longs and shorts.
This has to be viewed in context when trading Futures.

The big guys (1000 + in a minute or 2) govern direction. If you don't get on the right side of where they are going then you'll be fodder.
I tried last night to run this real-time but the feed back was well after the next chart had formed so found doing this was very difficult.
You really need some sort of live hook up.
(a) I cant do it
(b) I doubt you guys or I could be bothered.

When markets do very little they are actually doing a hell of a lot!!

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

TMJ
Price at the right hand edge of the page did exactly as expected right up to my exit at the reversal shown on my last chart.



Which is exactly what it did for the rest of the night.
Until one side either buys in with huge volume and moves the market back up again
Distribution will keep happening until buyers are beaten to death and re treat or the big guys smash it down.

Both you'll see if it happens.

What your missing is that with futures you have more than buyers and sellers.
You have an ongoing battle of covering longs and shorts.
This has to be viewed in context when trading Futures.

The big guys (1000 + in a minute or 2) govern direction. If you don't get on the right side of where they are going then you'll be fodder.
I tried last night to run this real-time but the feed back was well after the next chart had formed so found doing this was very difficult.
You really need some sort of live hook up.
(a) I cant do it
(b) I doubt you guys or I could be bothered.

When markets do very little they are actually doing a hell of a lot!!

Ahh sorry looked at those charts wrong, thought that very first chart you posted was early on in the piece and it hadn't rallied up to 12,000 yet, the different view/scale threw me off for the next chart, didn't actually look at what price it was the first time I looked at them!

I'll just shut up

 

[tech/a]

Ahh sorry looked at those charts wrong, thought that very first chart you posted was early on in the piece and it hadn't rallied up to 12,000 yet, the different view/scale threw me off for the next chart, didn't actually look at what price it was the first time I looked at them!

I'll just shut up

No don't shut up.
I take for granted that everyone sees what I've done.
There are probably others who missed it as you did but remained silent.
You're the voice!

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

No don't shut up.
I take for granted that everyone sees what I've done.
There are probably others who missed it as you did but remained silent.
You're the voice!

Try and understand it? Should I make a noise and make it clear?

How much pre-trade work do you do tech? Like looking at daily charts, I know you pick out your "control bars", but do you check the daily, weekly, hourly? What data is coming out? or just see it all as it comes and believe you'll get a read via VSA?

 

[tech/a]

Try and understand it? Should I make a noise and make it clear?

How much pre-trade work do you do tech? Like looking at daily charts, I know you pick out your "control bars", but do you check the daily, weekly, hourly? What data is coming out? or just see it all as it comes and believe you'll get a read via VSA?

It gets easier the more you trade or watch live trading.
I check only the 30 min ant 9 min for control and then the 3 and 1 for the noise which makes up the days trading.
I can see 1000 go through in a min and that's when I want to know whether it was buying or selling.
These are directional trades
They get out either side in dribbles so you wont see them.

Larger timeframes only for S&R levels of importance.

So about 5 mins tops.

Ill also know in 5 min wether Im in Sync.
If I just Don't get it Ill leave.
If I do its like reading a book you wrote!