The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

Would love to get the thoughts of experienced traders i.e. Michael, Canoz (not here and others.

My thoughts on the S&P 500


Not definitive but this is what I'm thinking. The reaction of price around here and the highs is crucial. Leaning towards a rejection of the high and turn down from there, but will monitor it bar by bar.


This is my email to kid_hustler

Taking a look at the S&P 500 chart. It doesn't look particularly bullish to me in terms of the months ahead.

Yesterday's strength will ensure that price is pushed up a little longer and doesn't come off yet.

21st March was a standout volume day which pushed to new highs and then reversed down. Very bearish imo. It then pushes up in unconvincing fashion and the ultra wide down days on 4th April and 10th April paint a bearish picture. As expected after such a bearish sell-off price has another push up. A few bearish days as the push up comes to a halt. Then yesterday's reversal bar which may see a little push up again. Not to the absolute highs I don't think.

Watching to see this next little push up and how strong or weak it looks.
IF it fails to reach the highs and a couple of strong bearish days appear, that is when I'll start looking for a longer term position move on the FTSE. I'll be monitoring the S&P closely from here because I reckon we at a critical time in the next 1-2 months.

 

[pavilion103]

FTSE looking for a long around

6710 (would need to push up first then back down and test this area)
6695
6680

Some of those better than others.

 

[MichaelD]

Everyone thinks the market is going to go down. Therefore I am bullish.

My view of where the market is going to go is more-or-less irrelevant to how I trade, though - quite clearly proven yesterday (!).

Today, the market action was fairly choppy and indecisive. I've been both long and short today. I made a little more money short than long.

Tomorrow - who knows. Trade what you see, not what you believe.

 

[pavilion103]

My entry tonight.
A bit different to usual, but a low risk in a decent spot.

My only concern is where the high on the daily chart is. It won't be free air for too long! No smooth sailing.

 

[pavilion103]

Not expecting a big move even if this does keep doing up. But low risk so worth a go.

Maximum risk in play is now 2 points. We'll see where it goes from here.

 

[pavilion103]

Stop BE.
No reference points ahead.
Hard to trade unless I see supply come in or happy with the move.

 

[pavilion103]

Could run out of puff. Upthrust. Noticeably higher volume.
Just playing by ear now.

 

[pavilion103]

Heading out. Won't be home to take a short dammit

 

[>Apocalypto<]

messed around on 30 min last night with no indis just going off LL HL HH LH's didn't go so well... so decided to go back to the tried and true. also missed that drive rally on WTI... seeing all your charts on here indyless makes me wonder if i am on the wrong track ....

one trade so far today short on GOLD ent bar has the red dot. LH minor support break low.

GLD in a minor rally could set up a fade later..
WTI driffting lower all day not close to a set up for me atm.

Balance is at $430.10 slowly getting back to starting point.

 

[Lone Wolf]

seeing all your charts on here indyless makes me wonder if i am on the wrong track ....

Always use a clean chart for posting. The secret special indicators are on a different chart.

 

[pavilion103]

Took a short. Lost 4 points.

Off for the night.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Always use a clean chart for posting. The secret special indicators are on a different chart.

hahaha

 

[Lone Wolf]

My entry tonight.
A bit different to usual, but a low risk in a decent spot.

My only concern is where the high on the daily chart is. It won't be free air for too long! No smooth sailing.

You mentioned the resistance on the daily, where do you personally see the resistance being?

Earlier you suggested taking the trade off at resistance, today you took a trade at 6731 and held into the daily chart resistance looking for a longer move. Do you see the daily chart resistance level different to me, or did you give it less weight because we're in a strong uptrend?

 

[>Apocalypto<]

2nd short.

took a short on the white bar on it's close marked with red dot. closed this trade as it hit that support point a few times and stuck. this is a decent area.

WTI setting up for a sell, planing to take it on the close of the current bar.

 

[peter2]

I hope you got out of the way before the scheduled US GDP data release.
The lower than expected GDP number really spooked the markets.

Aussie session = light blue (session High and Low are shown by the box)
UK session = light green
US session = light tan

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I hope you got out of the way before the scheduled US GDP data release.
The lower than expected GDP number really spooked the markets.

Aussie session = light blue (session High and Low are shown by the box)
UK session = light green
US session = light tan

i am short oil... didn't rock it too much but spot gold went wild.

 

[barney]

WTI setting up for a sell, planing to take it on the close of the current bar.

Hope you got on board that Joe ..... oil has been belted in the last hour

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hope you got on board that Joe ..... oil has been belted in the last hour

hey Barn,

I went short on the 10pm close... had to ride out the rally... closed now for 20 pts... bed time for me & good day so finishing up.

 

[barney]

hey Barn,

I went short on the 10pm close... had to ride out the rally... closed now for 20 pts... bed time for me & good day so finishing up.

 

[MichaelD]

No I wouldn't take a breakout there because the risk of a false breakout is quite high in that area (above the initial high of the day).

I trade both breakouts and mean reversion.


Here's some food for thought for all on this thread & IMO an important point about having a decent sized pot to play with.


Ponder Point #1

What's the difference in risk between;

1 contract with a 100 point stop
10 contracts with a 10 point stop
100 contracts with a 1 point stop

(excluding liquidity issues)


Ponder Point #2

Which trade is most likely to be stopped out?


Ponder Point #3

Which trade is most likely to capture a big move?