The transition to Futures trading

[>Apocalypto<]

decent day yesterday, took a few hits then turned it around with two shorts on GLD and WTI. Oil looked like trying to set up a run but once it ran out of steam it shaped up nicely for a cont down. Long WTI atm see chart.

if i could do it again the GLD buy was a decent entry but it was an inside bar setting up for the sellers. i should have passed.. awww hindsight.

 

[pavilion103]

FTSE should be reasonable to trade tonight.

Some clear support and resistance levels.

6680
6650
6620

I'd be content if it bounced off these levels and provided some nice 20 point moves.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Closed my WTI long -10 points.

 

[MichaelD]

Now what was I saying about not standing in the way of a freight train...even if it did decide to reverse direction all of a sudden and freight train along in the opposite direction.

A very nice short day for me so far. Down the elevator shaft. Shorts ongoing and trailing with a nicely loaded up position.

IG Clients bottom picking furiously.

Me changing viewpoint furiously. Prefer being profitable to being right.

 

[payday]

Nice Michael. What are the arrows - your trailing stops?

 

[MichaelD]

What are the arrows - your trailing stops?

No, they are the short entries. At the time I screen captured, I had a 4 level pyramided short position, all protected with a trailing stop.

It's still going down in a straight line so it's now a 6 level pyramided short position, all protected. It's already my big outlier for the month...and it just keeps on giving.

 

[pavilion103]

Michael, do you have many losing days? Or usually just make a few thousand a per day?

From the types of figures you are posting you must make about $15,000 per week easy?

Curious how long it's taken you to get to this point? Have you been trading for many years.

I'd love to be making that sort of money in 4-5 years.

 

[skc]

No, they are the short entries. At the time I screen captured, I had a 4 level pyramided short position, all protected with a trailing stop.

It's still going down in a straight line so it's now a 6 level pyramided short position, all protected. It's already my big outlier for the month...and it just keeps on giving.

Nice one Michael. I was thinking of your period entry approach when the market just kept going south today. It's been a while since we last saw a uni-directional 80pt range day from open.

 

[MichaelD]

Michael, do you have many losing days?

Curious how long it's taken you to get to this point?

It's been a while since we last saw a uni-directional 80pt range day from open.

I prefer to look at weekly time frames rather than days. I pay myself weekly unless I have a losing week. I have about 4 losing weeks per year where I don't get paid and carry the loss to the next week.

I've been long term trend trading since 2006. Have been dabbling with the index for years, but finally got serious about it 2 years ago. Blew up 3 times over the years. Learned the appropriate lessons. Still here.

I do not recall ever having an outlier day like today on the short side. 8 tranches now, 7 protected. *May* be bottoming. The only potential problem now is slippage on the exit.

 

[MichaelD]

Taken out of the trade by the wiggling. No slippage.

Still going down, so back short again.

Now it's time to do the bookkeeping for the big trade. I'm gonna enjoy that.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Taken out of the trade by the wiggling. No slippage.

Still going down, so back short again.

Now it's time to do the bookkeeping for the big trade. I'm gonna enjoy that.

VG trading Mic thanks for the posts.

 

[MichaelD]

Now it's time to do the bookkeeping for the big trade. I'm gonna enjoy that.

Once of my best results in a very long time, and tellingly it was in the OPPOSITE direction to where I thought the market would go just a few hours ago.

+5.8% of total trading capital.
+19.6% of margin in account. [no I don't really count it this way, but I'm on a bit of a high at the moment and need to get it out of my system before I do something stupid]

Not too shabby for a few hours work.

Note: NOT SKILL. Just merely the random movements of the market aligning spectacularly well with my methodology.


btw, the little blowoff short closed at just better than breakeven and I now have a tiny long in play.

Must...remember...."you're only as good as your last trade".

 

[payday]

Note: NOT SKILL. Just merely the random movements of the market aligning spectacularly well with my methodology.




Must...remember...."you're only as good as your last trade".

Well done Michael. I really like your mind set. It is definitely well suited to trading. Stay humble but also reward yourself. Keep up the good work.

 

[payday]

I'd love to be making that sort of money in 4-5 years.

Pav - in my experience when someone "gets it" their results tend to go exponential. Keep plugging away. There is no better way to get good at this game than screen time. From my perspective, you have the dedication and love of the game to really succeed. Just don't give up when the inevitable drawdowns occur, and don't get cocky when you have a run of wins.

 

[MichaelD]

Pav - in my experience when someone "gets it" their results tend to go exponential.

I agree. The *process* is what intrinsically interests me, and perfecting the *process*. It's like the most magnificent and most fun computer game I've ever played. And at the end of each trade/week, a nice little bonus of playing this most fascinating game is that $ consistently appear in my account.


Back to less metaphysical topics, however. I am rapidly becoming enamoured of the IG Client Sentiment indicator. The Aus200 Cash has been steadily meandering upwards for the last 8 hours. Almost ruler straight upwards. So why is everybody selling into this ruler straight uptrend? (I'm not - I'm just quietly building a smallish long pyramid). I'm starting to think that this indicator is a summary of all the people I'm taking money off.

 

[pavilion103]

Mixed trading tonight. Finished down 10. Again took too many trades.
For the week so far I'm net up 20.

Main re-occurring lessons

1) Be patient and wait for the one (usually) best setup of the night that sticks out to me.

2) When in that, follow my plan. Stop to BE as soon as practical and then trail according to plan. Probably best for me to even walk away from the screen at the beginning of the trade once at BE because I can only stuff it up by exiting stupidly and not according to plan.



I did get on the good trade at 6681. That was the one tonight.
I exited stupidly and then found myself trying to get in and out.
Shot myself in the foot after I'd taken the good trade.
Had 2 contracts and didn't make much on those trades.

Net 10 is not much damage thankfully.

Getting better and better each night. Refining my thoughts and the process.

I've proven I can make very good money when it's trending.

Now I'm proving that I can hold my nerve and not throw away money when it's not quite going my way.


It's all about the bigger picture for me. It's all about what sort of trader I will be in 12-24 months. If I can make good profit in the meantime, as I am, then that's a bonus.

All tracking well according to plan

 

[Newt]

I would have found it very hard to enter anywhere tonight. Agreed 6681 was a good trade, but I would have been too defensive to take it. Reversal at open would have suited, but wasn't home then.

The rest of the night trading slowly up with trend line support, but choppy, was tough to get into, and I wouldn't have been game to try.

Possibly breaking down now. I'm still getting a lot of value out of very pedantically defining my playbook for entries and learning to stay out until recognising those. Feel this is something that needs more work to reinforce all the things that need to be there to pull the trigger without agonising. Writing up the "trades" I take each night, and those I should have based on my playbook (whether successful or not). Until I can reliably demonstate profitability and sticking to the plan I'll keep doing this.

I wouldn't normally be so pedantic, but your notes along the way in this thread put me to shame Pav, and keep inspiring more effort. Besides, its damned fun learning!

I really want to be successful at this and won't give up easily learning how to ride the ups and downs.

 

[pavilion103]

Newt, I love your enthusiasm and sincerity.
Apart from personal interest, the reason I bother putting up my private analysis and discussing it is for people like yourself.


Here is the trade that I took last night, but aborted it early on (I think 6690ish - silly).
This is how I would have trailed it (purple lines).
One would have been a trailing stop. The other contract wider.
One would have ended up being profit take near the high of the opening bar. The other the trail, but taking profit around the same point.
50 points the net result from 2 contracts. Damn shame.

The only reason I didn't hold was because of stupid silly losses that I'd incurred earlier in the day. Trying to "make them up" by taking profit of 10 points was ridiculous. Then some ins and outs on the way up without too much to report!




Tonight the level I'm looking at it 6710ish for a long if it shapes up.

 

[VSntchr]

Interesting PAV thanks.

Just looking at the chart posted, I see that you would take the first contract off at the days previous high...if you weren't already in the trade - would the break above this level have triggered a long with a tight stop just below it?

 

[pavilion103]

Interesting PAV thanks.

Just looking at the chart posted, I see that you would take the first contract off at the days previous high...if you weren't already in the trade - would the break above this level have triggered a long with a tight stop just below it?

No I wouldn't take a breakout there because the risk of a false breakout is quite high in that area (above the initial high of the day).

What I would look for (as I am tonight), is for price to test the 6700-6710 area and then setup for another long, in a similar way that I did at the 6680 level.

I generally don't like trading breakouts. I'd rather take a long off support and a short off resistance and then hold for as much of the move as possible.

It makes life so much easier to get on one like last night at 6680 and then get the stop to BE and not have to stress about reading the chart to try and get in again. Getting a good entry near the high (short) or low (long) saves a lot of work and stress!