The transition to Futures trading

[Newt]

Not having experienced a whole year of future's exposure at this point I find these recent posts very informative. Michael and others, its facinating to hear your insights into how your (and colleagues) mind work and react. IMHO experience it balances the ongoing futures dialogue in this thread.

Thanks,
Newt

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Not having experienced a whole year of future's exposure at this point I find these recent posts very informative. Michael and others, its facinating to hear your insights into how your (and colleagues) mind work and react. IMHO experience it balances the ongoing futures dialogue in this thread.

Thanks,
Newt

just stick to your rules........... that's what always brings me undone. hard part is sometimes it takes you while to realize your not following them.

 

[Newt]

It was an eye-opener the 2 trading nights I have used real funds. Never would have picked myself for creating entries, but I learned quickly I needed to formalise my technique a lot more. Know exactly what you mean now

Going through a period of serious sim trading until have documented profitability using a few trade set ups currently. No easy way I can think of to backtest futures like stocks at this point.

 

[MichaelD]

just stick to your rules........... that's what always brings me undone.

It was an eye-opener the 2 trading nights I have used real funds.

I steadfastly maintain that psychology is of the utmost importance when trading as it is what will bring you undone despite getting everything else right.

At some stage, you will think you are smarter than the market. You'll then;

1. Not take a stop that you should have taken.
2. Trade with a position size too large for your account.
3. Take a trade that you shouldn't have.
4. Revenge trade to make up for points 1-3

and then

5. Realize what you have done, hopefully before you've blown yourself up.


"You're only as smart as your last trade"
"The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent"


I love trading. It has taught me a great deal about myself.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

It was an eye-opener the 2 trading nights I have used real funds. Never would have picked myself for creating entries, but I learned quickly I needed to formalise my technique a lot more. Know exactly what you mean now

such a differnt feeling the second you open a trade live... you feel in in your tummy. same thing happened once i sarted trading this new live acc... i got that feeling again. switched it off now but you sure know about it...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I love trading. It has taught me a great deal about myself.

thanks for the comments Mike...

you trade full time right only off the AUS200 via IG? I think i read that earlier in the thread.

 

[MichaelD]

you trade full time right only off the AUS200 via IG?

Yes, that is correct.

I also have an end of day long term trend following share portfolio for capital gain, but my day-to-day living income comes from trading the Aus200 via IG.

The FTSE and DAX have recently piqued my interest given I have just discovered [via this thread] that they don't 1:1 track the Aus200 and they have a spread of 1 tick during their opening hours and they move in a very tradable range. At the moment the time between the Aus200 close and the US open is usually very quiet for me. Not sure yet that I want to increase my activity at that time of the afternoon/evening, but I'm looking.

 

[MichaelD]

Here's a link to a link to an absolutely tremendous read on day trading. Worth every second of the read. No nonsense and tells it like it really is.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28364

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Here's a link to a link to an absolutely tremendous read on day trading. Worth every second of the read. No nonsense and tells it like it really is.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=28364

Top link Mic.... thanks for that.

currently for me,

WTI shaping up for possible sell. but it's very neutral atm imo. needs time to create a set up...
GLD open thrust over a high not in a situation i will be looking to trade atm... last 1 hour bar closed above 1300 which has been solid resistance...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

opened a buy on GLD looking for a trend continue with more upside to 1308 stop under the last hour bar.

 

[pavilion103]

Last week I actually finished down about 50 points (gotta be honest about my losses as well as my wins). My worst week I think. It was on the back of one poor day when I lose about 35 A bit of chasing and misadventures. Ridiculously taking 2 contracts too in what is not easy conditions for my trading style. To be honest, I got carried away. Didn't post the charts as they are of no use lol. Silly little losses. Big wake up call for me.


Tough market for my trading style! I've had to adapt. Below are some of my better trades for the night. Using simple support and resistance. Sorry I've labelled them stupidly, you'll get my point.

Teaching me how to read price action at S/R more carefully and sharpening up my defensive trading techniques.

Net 21 points for the night. $380 for the night. Can't complain :

Learning to "accept" smaller wins (and losses) in this market until the trending comes back.

 

[Newt]

Another tough night with limited price action. Appreciate your honesty Pav. Was wondering how your usual hold over a period of hours technique would have gone over the last week without strong trends.

I found tonight a useful learning exercise. 2 silly (sim) trades where in hindsight I entered on a signal bar followed by an unfinished bar that neatly reversed on both occasions on me. Was pleased I picked the trends up to 10am, then back down to midday'ish fairly quickly, as you've marked on your chart. Just didn't pick such great entries and stops

When reviewing simple reversal trades off S and R I should have been able to make 5-15 pts on shorter trades that fit my style in the period I was home and online, using the 5min chart.

Thanks for posting,
Newt

 

[pavilion103]

Just taken another short. 6668 stop 6673.
Don't know whether touts hold overnight. I'm favoring the short side.
Moved to 6661 quickly. Tough spot. Want going to trade. Just checked it before bed and it was too good of a setup to refuse!!

 

[Wysiwyg]

I found tonight a useful learning exercise. 2 silly (sim) trades where in hindsight I entered on a signal bar followed by an unfinished bar that neatly reversed on both occasions on me. Was pleased I picked the trends up to 10am, then back down to midday'ish fairly quickly, as you've marked on your chart. Just didn't pick such great entries and stops

A good exercise is to stop thinking trades are wrong or mistakes. You gents don't know which way price will move so it aint no mistake. Taking the same trade at a different time and profiting does not make one right either. The market either moves in the direction of ones analysis or not.

 

[pavilion103]

Exactly.
All about good setups I high RR places.
Trading with positive expectancy over time.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Exactly.
All about good setups I high RR places.
Trading with positive expectancy over time.

Since returning to ASF I have been reading this thread with interest. It was obvious the shorts provided some quick wins. The honesty is refreshing too as there are plenty of not-honest-with-self traders.

 

[pavilion103]

I'm here to learn. I'm gonna report wins and losses. This thread is about the journey
Glad others are of the same mindset in here.


OK I just closed out at support for another 9 points.
Was tempted to hold overnight with little to lose but will pocked that win and go to bed.
If I had time I'd watch price at this level and consider a long or wait for a short re-entry.
I'm not convinced that this definitely won't fall. Very tempted to hold, but this is a marathon and not a sprint. 30 in one night is satisfying. Would be a shame to see that fall back to 15, leaving the original stop in place, just on the gamble that it will collapse.

I can't wait for the trends to resume, but I've learnt a heck of a lot in these markets and starting to trade them well. Focus. Focus. Focus. Patience. Discipline.

Finished the night up 30. Very happy with that.

 

[MichaelD]

Most interesting that money was made by others on the short side.

My interpretation - snatching pebbles from in front of a steam train.

FWIW, all my money this week so far has been taken long. Very long in fact. For the first time in quite a while my risk management rules are allowing me to take fairly decent size positions instead of small sniffs. +130 so far this week.

Trading mean reversion for me is just grinding out a basic wage. Getting on the trends and letting them run (like what *might* be unfolding right now) is the sweet, sweet gravy.


Important: Do not allow my views to alter yours. I appreciate the views in here and the camaraderie, but I trade *my* way regardless of what is written here. You should trade *your* way.

ps I'll stick my neck out on the line here. The "Sell in May" crowd is utterly sure they're right at the moment, so I predict they're gonna miss out big time. IG Clients are short big time, too, which suits my thesis.

 

[MichaelD]

^Haha.

Trailing stop hit on long trade & now short. Doesn't the market read ASF?

 

[pavilion103]

Michael, I remember one week when I was well up on the short side. The market had a couple of strong downtrend days and you took longs. Each to their own.

On the FTSE the 6680 area has been rejected a few times now and provided a great low risk short.

FWIW of my 4 main trades, two long and two short.

But I certainly don't see myself as standing in front of a train or any other fast moving object by taking those shorts.

On the FTSE price struggling a little around this level, but having said that I am not going to make things up and pretend price will fall 100 points tonight.