The transition to Futures trading

[pavilion103]

Wish I was up for that last down move.

Saw it rolling over before bed.
Bloody work costing me money again :

Would have been handy!

 

[pavilion103]

What did you make Can? Close to 10K?

I've gotta get on the DAX.

I think I'm just about ready to check it out.
Will just observe it for a bit first.

Seems like I'm missing out on opportunity!

 

[Wysiwyg]

Wish I was up for that last down move.

Saw it rolling over before bed.

Wondering in what time frame or at what point you saw it "rolling over". Even a chart that shows this rollover.

 

[pavilion103]

Wondering in what time frame or at what point you saw it "rolling over". Even a chart that shows this rollover.

Probably poor terminology from me.
Not rolling over. Moreso consolidating and then producing a narrowly lower high. The first signs that it MAY top given the overall context.

So no, no real rolling over, just a potential topping that I was looking for, halting the up move.

 

[pavilion103]

Very interesting night ahead. I wonder if this will break lower violently, or if we have another bar that pushes up.

I definitely want to put myself in a position to capitalise on a a big down move if it happens. Will be watching the open carefully. If we push towards 6500 that will be interesting. First area to watch if it pushes down is the 6525 low of yesterday.

I will be reasonably aggressive on the open to the short side (with caution).

 

[MichaelD]

Very interesting night ahead. I wonder if this will break lower violently, or if we have another bar that pushes up.

Indeed. I fat-fingered a short trade overnight...by the time I realized what I had done I was able to get a Break Even stop in place so no harm done - it was a very good night to be fat-fingered short since the stop trailed down for about 40% of the overall move. Both very pleased and very angry with myself at the same time.

The Australian market did nothing all day - just rangebound in a 10-20 point range - so no clues there on either the open or the close.

Still, 3 failed attempts on the upside must count for something. I have a little each way at the moment. We will see what the night brings. My head thinks the same way as you - there seems to be significant downside potential here, but I'll trade whatever comes along. Enjoying the present volatility.

 

[CanOz]

I'm not actually trading today, but stealing a glance at the market in between making room for baby stuff...

I will say that i have not seen the order flow like this since the European sovereign debt crisis. The market is frantically searching for value...when i saw this the first time it was when i was just starting to read the order flow and i thought i was just always like this When it slowed down i didn't know what to think. Good to see it again...i wonder what TH thinks?

 

[MichaelD]

Surprising evening so far. Looked like the short scenario was going to play out, but not to be (yet!).

Entered short @ 5420
Exited @ 5415 shortly thereafter for +5 via trailing stop.

Now have a Buy Stop @ 5430 and a Sell Stop @ 5400 in play.

Basically sitting on my hands and waiting for the market to decide solidly one way or the other where it will go. I'll be perfectly happy if nothing more happens overnight.

 

[pavilion103]

For the first time I had 3 contracts at once.

Short

1 - 6536 - running
2 - 6525 - running
3 - 6518 (Exited 6503)

Triangle forming at the open of the US.

One stop above this.
The other a wide one at 6532

Currently up 110 points for the night with about 40 locked in.

 

[MichaelD]

3 - 6518 (Exited 6503)

Curious as to why only 1 of your contracts has been exited. Quite different to my pyramid exit which is one out all out.

 

[pavilion103]

Curious as to why only 1 of your contracts has been exited. Quite different to my pyramid exit which is one out all out.

To be honest this was not a planned exit.
I had to head out for the night and thought I'd lock in 1 gain near the support low.
I would have left it is I'd stayed home.

I closed out the other two around the 6500.
I could have left them with a wide stop but
1) The US open provided a nice triangle. I thought best to trail above this.
2) I had about 70 points on the table and satisfied with that for the night.

Having done this I wonder if it will smash down by 80 points over night. Either way I'm satisfied.

Nice little base forming for a long actually, but contextually not sure if it's any good.

Time for bed.

That is by far my best week.
Definitely over 200 points up. Will have to check just how much.
Probably around $4,000 I'd imagine.
Will go over all the spreadsheets tomorrow.

 

[pavilion103]

Not as much as some of the other more experienced traders in this thread.
A couple of the guys have put me to shame with the single trade/day wins this week!

But my upward trajectory is looking good.
Getting comfortable with multiple contracts.

Can't wait for next week but will enjoy the break

 

[pavilion103]

Dammit that basso mentioned has produced 15 points profit in 10 mins and moving! Grr. Ah well.

 

[MichaelD]

That is by far my best week.

Point 1. Fantastic! Well done.

Point 2. DANGER! DANGER! When things just flow like they have for you this week you very quickly start to feel bold and invincible. It's very, very intoxicating.

 

[pavilion103]

Michael, I'm actually glad it's the weekend. Despite the great week I need a break, recharge and to get away from it for a few days. I need a clear mind and come back Monday focused.
You're right, it's easy to get carried away.


On last nights action.
Price closed 6475.
It taught me a lesson.

A push up to the 6520-30 area again could have been expected.
It did push up to 6520 and then fell back down again.

I don't mind taking one off the table like I did at 6500. But the whole reason for the second was to hold for a bigger move which I believed was probable in the context.

Thankfully price only fell to 6475 and cost me 25 points for closing that last contract.

Would have felt sick if it smashes down to low 6400s given my plan.

Psychologically, I panicked. But wasn't hurt too badly this time.

Next time - stick to the plan! Hold the second one.

Not too upset but this IS part of my plan. I believe it is best for me and next time I need to adhere to it. Would have been best for me to leave one and go to bed. Watching the chart at that point can only cause confusion on an already set plan!

 

[payday]

Point 2. DANGER! DANGER! When things just flow like they have for you this week you very quickly start to feel bold and invincible. It's very, very intoxicating.

That's so true. I always make it a point after a fantastic week (or even a bad one or an indifferent one) to "reset my mind". Forget about the week I had and just go back to the job of looking for setups and try not to get caught up in the euphoria. Stay focussed and try not to look at the scoreboard. The match isn't over until the final whistle so just keep playing.

 

[MichaelD]

Watching the chart at that point can only cause confusion on an already set plan!

Excessive real time chart watching, and subsequent fiddling, is an EXTREMELY hard habit to break. Don't worry, I'm well and truly guilty of this as well and it's a constant struggle for me to avoid it.

I have a laptop by my bed set up to have a blank screen most of the time (so I can sleep) but to produce reasonably loud audio alerts if trigger levels are reached. I still frequently take a peek, even if I don't really need to.

Stay focussed and try not to look at the scoreboard.

Normally I solely reward myself on Saturdays after trading has closed for the week. I do my numbers for the week, take out my wages and get set up for Monday's open.

Keeping an intra-week eye on the scoreboard is unusual for me. Keeping track of the results of individual trades (as posted here this week) is unusual as well.

ps After bemoaning the price action earlier this week in this thread it has also turned out to be an excellent week for me. +5% return on trading capital is above average for me, so I'm pleased. Next week? Who knows.

 

[beachlife]

I made $10k on the German 30 cfd on Thurs, gave it all back last night. On review today, 90% of my trades last night did not meet my criteria, it was effectively a night at the casino. Just when I thought I had my discipline under control my mindset was undone by one extreme night. Glad its the weekend.

That's why I like end of day trading, I have to sleep between each bar

 

[MichaelD]

Psychologically, I panicked. But wasn't hurt too badly this time.

Just when I thought I had my discipline under control my mindset was undone by one extreme night.

As most people reading this thread would be aware, I believe that our own psychology is the #1 threat to our profitability.

We've just had a fascinating couple of weeks of trading. Basically there has been a run of fairly low range trading. Routine grinding if you will. Boring small tick trades. All of a sudden there has been a rush of 1% moves up and down. Heady and profitable stuff. Big tick profits. Can't do anything wrong nights.

The active posters here all seem to have everything else right;
- positive expectancy
- trading to a plan
- limiting losses
- letting winners run
- appropriate position sizing and money management.

But what has limited profitability this week? Our own psychology. Nothing more, nothing less.

I'm not a robot and have my own psychological trading demons which I continue to battle.
I've also been through the euphoria of the big winner and then the desolation of giving it all back.
I've had several blow-ups over the years.

Each time I have got back up, looked inwards, and learned from the experience.
Each time I have come back as a better, stronger and more consistent trader than the last time.

One thing for me that has been consistent over the years, particularly the last few years as I've been more consistently profitable - I really, really enjoy the actual process of trading. I look forwards to going to work on Monday morning when my market opens. I haven't enjoyed anything else I've done for work as much as I enjoy trading.

It's a truly fascinating game we play, isn't it?

 

[payday]

Each time I have got back up, looked inwards, and learned from the experience.
Each time I have come back as a better, stronger and more consistent trader than the last time.

One thing for me that has been consistent over the years, particularly the last few years as I've been more consistently profitable - I really, really enjoy the actual process of trading. I look forwards to going to work on Monday morning when my market opens. I haven't enjoyed anything else I've done for work as much as I enjoy trading.

It's a truly fascinating game we play, isn't it?

I agree wholeheartedly with these statements Michael. I quit my regular day job last year and one reason was that I was making more money from trading than I was from the regular day job. But the main reason was that I really enjoy trading. The psychological aspects of trading are so challenging yet so important to master. The technical side of things is not that hard but what's going on between the ears to me, really makes the difference.