The transition to Futures trading

[CanOz]

Well I'm thinking yesty's low was a bit poor and will be re-visited. However, I'm a little biased as I'm short half a dozen US Power Setups and hoping they hold...

 

[MichaelD]

A few random comments.

Why is there surprise at just how powerful flogging a good move for all it's worth can be?

Unsure of the US and UK markets, but we're at a level now where we've been several times before in the last couple of months. Dunno if it'll go up or down from here. Is it really that important to predict?

If it goes up, risk manage a long trade.
If it goes down, risk manage a short trade.

 

[CanOz]

A few random comments.

1. Why is there surprise at just how powerful flogging a good move for all it's worth can be?

Unsure of the US and UK markets, but we're at a level now where we've been several times before in the last couple of months. Dunno if it'll go up or down from here.

2. Is it really that important to predict?

If it goes up, risk manage a long trade.
If it goes down, risk manage a short trade.

eh hem...

1. From my pov, i was surprised because i didn't realize the CFD was 25 AUD per point. Big money doesn't amaze me anymore, TH has pretty much allowed me to believe the potential...

2. I enjoy the analysis, plus i'm already short half a dozen equities so i'll get stopped out unless the correction gets deeper...Otherwise its just context and i'll look for longs above today high and shorts below current value so no concern there....

 

[CanOz]

My line in the sand is 9520, below i'm bearish and above i'm looking for longs...we might see some consolidation here depending on how the US goes...

 

[Newt]

If it goes up, risk manage a long trade.
If it goes down, risk manage a short trade.

Its also good to reinforce to the wannabes here we need to be profitable, not right - as many here have said before. Its worth saying over and over until we're REALLY thinking that way though.

 

[CanOz]

Not allot of people interested in the volume profile stuff, but this is a perfect example of short covering. If we don't get any new buyers then we can expect price to look for value lower again, as the rally was only shorts covering and any new longs will only add to the fire if we head lower...

The reverse 'P' profile is a typical short covering shape...A 'b' profile is typical of long liquidation...

This is the FTSE but the DAX is the same anyway...

 

[CanOz]

The FTSE has found some buyers, it broke higher with the ES, the DAX is lagging a bit though...

If the Globex high holds once the ES opens then next stop is the 1860 for it (the S&P emini), about 50% of the correction so far...If we close above that, I'm thinking this might be all we get for a lousy correction

 

[kid hustlr]

Yes Wolf, range continuing, getting tighter, still around 6585. No sign of anything decisive as yet, and getting into a quieter period as you say.

Kid, I've put myself back into sim trading for another month. I had two days of live trading before the daylight savings time changes, and was down a a few points for my trouble.

Forcing myself to write much more on context, trends and trade entry/exits now. Pav's notes shamed me into cleaning my act up. Need to treat it like a 2nd business, not just a hobby.

yeah obviously preparation is key. for me though IME I've just got to get in there and swing the bat, trust myself and execute well, a lot of that stuff comes though practice.

 

[pavilion103]

Wow lots of discussion on here last night. Great to see.

10 points down for me.
Tried to short that area (2 contracts).

Saw that it pushed above.
Will look tonight if it tests/holds at the 6000 level. Then I'd be more inclined for a long.

We'll see.

 

[MichaelD]

The overnight price action well illustrates the dilemma of trading an index.

"An index is a mean-reverting instrument...except when its not".

i.e.

Most of the time fading a move is the profitable answer.
Most of the time breakouts fail.

Emphasis on "most of the time".

 

[CanOz]

The overnight price action well illustrates the dilemma of trading an index.

"An index is a mean-reverting instrument...except when its not".

i.e.

Most of the time fading a move is the profitable answer.
Most of the time breakouts fail.

Emphasis on "most of the time".

Yes, add to that the 'two markets in one' with the EU markets...lots of fun

 

[MichaelD]

'two markets in one' with the EU markets

Please expand on this. I'm guessing you're referring to the FTSE and the DAX...?

 

[CanOz]

Please expand on this. I'm guessing you're referring to the FTSE and the DAX...?

Yeah, the FTSE, DAX, Eurostoxx etc...

Once the ES opens, or just before, the European products are mostly arbed to the US markets, instead of the Globex contracts (ES,NQ, YM etc.) being arbed to the EU contracts, also the volume increases again, as the US opens...

Two personalities, completely different in the book and watching a chart....

 

[CanOz]

Here are the Charts for the FTSE, for interest. We have put in a decent amount of volume on the bottom, which suggests long liquidation, not new longs. This means that this rally could be short covering. However, we are now approaching levels that must draw in new buyers again.

I also have the Volume Weighted Averages Prices so you can see where value is (the most agreed on price by volume) on the daily continuous, monthly 60m, and weekly 60m.

All great for providing context and telling us that we need to continue seeing buyers enter to keep this rally off that low going...

 

[pavilion103]

Trade 1 near open.

Trailed stop a little. Want to give it some room though until the market tells me it's time to exit.

6655 is obviously going to be important ahead if we even get close

 

[CanOz]

hmm, me too, ready to flip it though...

 

[pavilion103]

Stop moved to 23

 

[CanOz]

There a BOE interest rate decision today too, but I can't see there being any surprises, still it is news...

 

[Newt]

There a BOE interest rate decision today too, but I can't see there being any surprises, still it is news...

Yes, noted that Canoz. 10pm Qld time - might make the market a bit more tentative in the hours before?
Trying to get in the habit of always checking as part of writing up context of daily and hourly charts

 

[pavilion103]

Personally, I am more thinking long than short now.

Contemplated adding a low risk one at 29 with stop 25.5 (minimal 3.5 point risk), but didn't.

I will hold the stop at 23 for now. If this breaks higher then re-assess.

6655 ahead.