The transition to Futures trading

[MichaelD]

Shorts closed. Unusual to get 6 pyramids on the way down before the stop gets hit. Porterhouse steak again tonight instead of mince.

Now flat with a very small Buy Stop order in.

IG Client sentiment - people have stopped buying the dip (67% buying earlier today, now only 52% buying). I've become a bit bullish again.

 

[CanOz]

IG Client sentiment - people have stopped buying the dip (67% buying earlier today, now only 52% buying). I've become a bit bullish again.

What about the German 30 Michael?

 

[MichaelD]

What about the German 30 Michael?

DAX rising but IG clients are selling.

Certainly fits with my bullish view.

 

[CanOz]

ooh, cool...thanks

 

[pavilion103]

All over the bloody place.
Was up 65 points open profit.
Too much closing positions and getting back in. Losing my nerve a few times.
Took a silly one that cost me 10 points. Way too much risk that far into a move. Dumb. Should be taking 5 max there.

Question of how wide to trail my last one.
It all comes down to my confidence in my analysis of the context.
Do I just leave it right at the top and walk away lol? That would mean I end up BE after being that far up.
I've put myself in a hole here.
I can't lose anything but I can give a lot back.

Crap. I'm a moron


And I've put it at the 6482 level which is a pivot high.


Taken out. Only finished 22 points up.

If I'd traded how I "should have" it would have been 40 locked in.

Never mind.

 

[pavilion103]

My preconceived notion of a big short cost me tonight.

Should have lifted one that I took off at 82, at 68 instead. That's +14

Then the short that cost me 10 points should not have existed. That's +10

Probably should have been +24. Which is 46 points for the night.

Instead 22.

Easy in hindsight, but I can't afford to be blinded like that.

In the end still 22 points I guess and $400 in the pocket. But grrrrr :frown:

 

[CanOz]

yeah, ya can't get too hung up on your biases. I used to document the homework process, level by level. I found though, that it locked me into thinking something in particular was going to happen. I found for me its better to run through some possibilities about if its going to be long liquidation, short covering, rotational, etc. and then let the market tell me whats happening, within some references to that context...

We've all been there...

 

[MichaelD]

Pav,

Seriously consider walking away for a couple of days.

You are in a bad place right now mentally for trading. Been there, done that. You've gone from "invincible" last week to very fragile and unsure of yourself. Mistakes and revenge trades happen here.

The market will still be here next week. It doesn't care about our mental states. It just does what it does. It goes up. It goes down. It doesn't cause us pain. That's all self-imposed.

Remember the cliché - "You're only as good as your last trade".

 

[Newt]

Its interesting the FTSE has bounced back to a bit above the upper channel range for the last couple of days (to 6493) and now ranging sidesways back into to top of the range (well, the one I've drawn in, anyway).

I've been enjoying more Al Brooks lately, and he makes it clear beginners should be trading in the direction of the longer term trend (down last couple of nights). For me that would have (sim trading) seen me in around 6496 shorting and possibly a 2nd contract at 6482'ish. I would have been out around 18:28 and happy to make 20-30 points.

As tempting as the bounce from 6455 up looked initially I wouldn't have been game to trust it (or at least only expected 5-10 pts from it conservatively with too high a risk equation for my beginner's mentality).

 

[pavilion103]

Still 20 points up for the night.
Not a bad result overall.

Did well to get up 65. Then made a few indecisive decisions. Cost me some open profit.

I will be back focused tomorrow.

More worried about the lessons to learn than any regret.

I'm good at getting myself back focused the next day almost every day following a bad one is a good one for me. It focuses me.

 

[MichaelD]

Only a very small +5 taken from the run up this evening (small position size, choppy rise which doesn't suit my trailing stop). Back in higher up with a bigger position size. Will see how that pans out.

IG Client sentiment very interesting - once again people are selling as the market rises. I'm starting to think this might actually be a useful rather than merely entertaining piece of information. Must think of a way to track this info. Right at the moment, these posts are the only (approximately) timed record I have.

 

[CanOz]

Whats the scoop on the Honk Kong market Michael?

If anyone wants to see how I practice my trading style on the HHI/HSI they can join my meeting by downloading Team-viewer and signing in with this number....m34-029-366

Not sure if i have audio or not, PM me and i'll give you my skype if interested....

 

[MichaelD]

Whats the scoop on the Honk Kong market Michael?

IG Client sentiment as below on HS50 instrument. Haven't looked at a chart. FWIW Aussie market struggling to get through a key resistance level at the moment.

 

[CanOz]

IG Client sentiment as below on HS50 instrument. Haven't looked at a chart. FWIW Aussie market struggling to get through a key resistance level at the moment.

Thanks....

I suspect the HHI and HSI are stinking things up a bit at the moment...explains the SPI issue.

 

[MichaelD]

Aussie market struggling to get through a key resistance level at the moment.

Formed a nice pennant and just broke to the upside. Let's see if it holds. Sentiment showing lots of selling going on despite the rise, so accordingly I'll feel bullish about the current prospects.

 

[MichaelD]

Failed pennant/breakout and now a bump 'n' grind downwards. Big directional moves are entertaining and profitable to trade, but it's back to the mundane reality of mostly trading noise for the moment as far as I am concerned. Hard to take much more than a small % of these moves.

Who knows whether there'll be a big break downwards or whether the trading range will hold yet again.

 

[MichaelD]

Fascinating behaviour. Bottom of the range held yet again, in quite convincing fashion.

And yet, we're struggling to get above yesterday's highs.

News out of the US is really mixed - plenty of the "sell in May and go away" crowd out and about.

Still only grinding away as far as I am concerned. Very small position sizes. Have a long in play with a trailing stop. Don't know if it will amount to anything substantial.

Probably not.

 

[pavilion103]

Strange price action last night.

Finished down 20 for the night.

Not the easiest day to trade unless you really had confidence at the S/R levels but wasn't easy to work out in real time last night.

 

[MichaelD]

...wasn't easy to work out in real time last night.

It's NEVER easy to work out in real time

Hindsight on the other hand...

Managed to grind out +10 for the night, well under 50% of the available move, and a very quick +15 on a couple of bars during the pre-open/open (bigger position size). Doesn't show up well on the chart markings - doesn't make for exciting viewing like the hugely pyramided +295 from the other day.

Just another routine stint at the office grinding away managing risk.

Sitting flat now with orders to open both sides of the current price action.

 

[pavilion103]

Oh my goodness I was asleep at the wheel last night.

I was slack with my pre-open analysis.
Missed some very obvious levels.

Very unusual to be oblivious like that.

More costly in terms of potential profit than losses incurred. But still....