The transition to Futures trading

[MichaelD]

2 ticks that was sorry.

Bitterly disappointed. Identified it and wasn't quite aggressive enough. 60 points gone.

What should have been a 100 point night only nets 40% of that potential with 40 points.

Very frustrating!

1. Not the first time this has happened, and won't be the last time. That's trading.

2. 40 points / 40% of the total moves available is perfectly decent and perfectly profitable. (I'm very happy at 50%, deliriously happy if I get anything more).

3. Always think of how much you could have LOST if things didn't go your way, not how much you COULD HAVE MADE if things did go your way.

4. Thinking about the singular "winner that got away" may result in you changing how you trade to your overall detriment.

 

[CanOz]

Swing chart of the two sessions...

 

[CanOz]

On another note.
Tonight what are people's thoughts?
I will be looking for a short with 2 contracts if I can find a good setup.
Wouldn't be surprised in the coming week if price pushes down.

I am still thinking continuation until we can put in a rotational day and build up some volume for a big short covering rally....

 

[pavilion103]

1. Not the first time this has happened, and won't be the last time. That's trading.

2. 40 points / 40% of the total moves available is perfectly decent and perfectly profitable. (I'm very happy at 50%, deliriously happy if I get anything more).

3. Always think of how much you could have LOST if things didn't go your way, not how much you COULD HAVE MADE if things did go your way.

4. Thinking about the singular "winner that got away" may result in you changing how you trade to your overall detriment.

Some great points.

1. Yes. This will happen. It's a reality.
2. Yes. Could have been minus 20 for the night if things went bad. Plus 40 is good.
3. When trading one contract the question is always how much am I prepared to give back to risk a larger profit. Trading 2 contracts more often will help.
4. True. I don't want to change my strategy based on one trade and wreck my whole approach. But I do want to analyse the one trade and analyse it alongside similar trades to identify if, in these high probability spots, it's worth giving the stop more room. I'd suggest the answer is trading 2 contracts, rather than doing that.

 

[pavilion103]

Swing chart of the two sessions...

That's interesting. Love that chart.

Interesting to note that it pulled back to the 6580 area once is broke through support.
That would have been a fairly clear short for me given the overall context. It would have been exactly what I am looking for to either re-enter or add a position.

What frustrates me is not being able to trade the entire trading day, or at least the first 75% of it. The earlier market open with D/L saving changed helps give me an extra 2 hours.

It frustrates me because when I review the chart at the end of the night I see setups that are textbook and that I actually anticipated before I go to bed. If I was on all night, I think I capture very good profit each day.

If things continue on the current trajectory the possibile option (because I have large savings in hand), would be to take a 3-6 month LWOP from work and see try trading 75% of the day for a short period of time. I wouldn't do it yet, but just something to consider.

- - - Updated - - -

I still feel that the best moves come in the first couple of hours.

What times of the market do others on here trade?
Just the start?
Total day?
Most of the day?

 

[CanOz]

Yeah, the European markets really need to be traded as two separate sessions in my view, OR you trade the FTSE and then move over to the ES, YM, NQ or the TF instead of trading the proxy for the leading market...

On that pullback, its basically testing the previous session low, which is a great place to define risk...and after that range, reward as well.

I only trade the opening couple of hours on the DAX. If i trade once the US is open its only on sim to have a play, because i'm not familiar enough with it and its just full of arb bots...

 

[MichaelD]

I don't want to change my strategy based on one trade and wreck my whole approach. But I do want to analyse the one trade and analyse it alongside similar trades to identify if, in these high probability spots, it's worth giving the stop more room. I'd suggest the answer is trading 2 contracts, rather than doing that.

In my experience, altering my stop management along the lines you suggest has always resulted in poorer outcomes. I suggest you explore the 2 contract route. It allows more finessed risk management.

What times of the market do others on here trade?
Just the start?
Total day?
Most of the day?

Since I use STOP orders I'm essentially exposed 24/7 Mon am -> Sat am. Most (but not all) of the moves happen at Oz and US market opens and closes.

Because I use STOP orders along with SMS alerts, I don't need to screenwatch 24/7 which makes this work for me. I do need, however, to be able to access the market whenever I get an alert fairly promptly.

 

[pavilion103]

Very up and down for me.
Took 2 contracts short. If I held them I'd be 90 points up right now!!!
I panicked and exited at BE near the open

Played around a bit. Went 10 points down overall.

I've traded 2 most of the night in different spots.
Just exited one a little hastily for 20 points.

I currently have one in open profit 40 points.
Up around 45 points overall.

Locked in a minimum of 30 points profit overall.

A bit upset I didn't stick to my guns with the open setups, would have absolutely cleaned up.

Monitoring this last one now.

 

[CanOz]

I was away for a couple of hours today so i didn't trade, what a nice directional day it turned out to be...

 

[pavilion103]

OK trailing very tight now.
Happy to take what is on the table.
Locked in 42 points now I think.

This is a crazy churning market.
I have not seen price action like this for a while.
It is making pivot high stop placement to straight forward.

Will post a chart once I close out.

 

[pavilion103]

I was away for a couple of hours today so i didn't trade, what a nice directional day it turned out to be...

Doesn't get much easier than this hey? Get on and ride it.
Pivot highs present themselves plainly.
Trail each break lower.
Rinse and repeat.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Doesn't get much easier than this hey? Get on and ride it.
Pivot highs present themselves plainly.
Trail each break lower.
Rinse and repeat.

I didn't intend to trade since I was watching the Jigsaw live trading room at the same time, but I had the chart open with one eye on it. Since I was distracted it's hard to say what might have happened, but I think I'd have sat on my hands all night.

I liked the three failed pushes high at the open, but also thought that if I remove my short bias then it's simply in a range. I saw the retest later (second circle), but for some reason I didn't like it at the time. I think I was put off by the the nearby support I thought I saw (around the bar in the blue square).

After that I just didn't see any reason to go short... aside from the fact that price kept going lower. I think I need a trigger that says "The direction is obviously up/down - enter for any reason and manage the exit."

Oh, there was one pullback I saw at time 19:30 on the chart. But after running 20 points already I didn't like the look of that either.

 

[MichaelD]

I panicked and exited at BE near the open

Played around a bit. Went 10 points down overall.

A bit upset I didn't stick to my guns with the open setups, would have absolutely cleaned up.

Why did you panic?

Doesn't get much easier than this hey? Get on and ride it.
Pivot highs present themselves plainly.
Trail each break lower.
Rinse and repeat.

Enjoy conditions which suit your trading while they last, just don't start to feel invincible lest the market remind you how, erm, "vincible" we all are.

ps for some interesting contrast - I am +35 points for the week, all taken LONG. These choppy conditions do not suit my style at all. I prefer straight down or straight up.

 

[pavilion103]

2 big errors but I won't shoot myself tonight.

Finished with 59 points = $1,060.


Original setup

Error 1: Exiting the original position. Would have made 116 points = $2,090


New setup of 2 contracts

Error 2: Exiting the first one at 6627 for no reason except panic. Cost me 26 points. Would have made 85 points for the night = $1,530


But I won't be too critical. Overall a solid night. And good back to back days.
Could have been anything up to 220 points but walked away with 100. Satisfied with a little tweaking to do.

 

[pavilion103]

For me, the reason I was so keen for the short is
A) the overall context
B) I saw the open as a test and rejection of the 6660 area which was significant yesterday.

This gave me enormous confidence to trade 2 contracts tonight.

 

[pavilion103]

Why did you panic?



Enjoy conditions which suit your trading while they last, just don't start to feel invincible lest the market remind you how, erm, "vincible" we all are.

ps for some interesting contrast - I am +35 points for the week, all taken LONG. These choppy conditions do not suit my style at all. I prefer straight down or straight up.

1) I panicked simply because I am not used to trading 2 contracts and to have 20 point open risk scared me. If it was 1 contract I wouldn't have battered an eye-lid. But 2 had an impact on me. I'll get more used to it.

2) Believe me I am working my **** off, analysing charts, working on risk management, practicing all the time.
Despite the excited and maybe confident tone of my enthusiastic posts I am well and truly aware that I am not bigger than the markets. I am focused. Afterall I did trade a sim for 2 years. I am prepared to do what it takes. My focus is long term.

Coming out of the recent small range days of the previous weeks I had to adjust my trading to those conditions. I took more 15-20 point wins and looked for higher quality setups. The past 2 days I re-adjusted back to my more aggressive approach.
I am well aware of making hay while the sun shines and adapting to changing market conditions.

 

[CanOz]

1)

Coming out of the recent small range days of the previous weeks I had to adjust my trading to those conditions. I took more 15-20 point wins and looked for higher quality setups. The past 2 days I re-adjusted back to my more aggressive approach.
I am well aware of making hay while the sun shines and adapting to changing market conditions.

This is something that's really worth gold. Its not as much to determine the kind of day the market will have (directional as opposed to rotational) as it is to recognize the kind of day the market is having...That way you can trade with it rather than fading and getting run over...I'm getting better but its a WIP...

 

[MichaelD]

to have 20 point open risk scared me. If it was 1 contract I wouldn't have battered an eye-lid. But 2 had an impact on me. I'll get more used to it.

When you sit back and analyse this, it's extraordinary the effect scaling has on your psychology. I can absolutely relate to this with the sizing struggles I have been through (and continue to go through).

The market hasn't changed. It still plods along. And yet the effect it has on us dramatically changes as you scale up and expose yourself to more risk. Sim/paper trading just can't give you that same gut-wrenching effect as putting your own real money on the line when you don't know the outcome in advance.

(Ahh, my favourite topic - trading psychology and how we tend to self sabotage).

 

[pavilion103]

Obviously going live for the first time poses issues. I was very cautious when I started. Then when I realized I could make 30,40,50 points on some nights risking 6 or 7 or even up to 10 was an easy thing to do.

All of a sudden going to 2 contracts risking 10 becomes risking 20 and it's a large chunk of the 30,40,50 point profit that I'm used to.

Once I start trading 2 more frequently and having nights of 60,80,100 points profit, the. 15-20 point risk won't be as bigger psychological issue.

Some good runs on the board certainly helps I reckon.

 

[Newt]

Reading everyone's posts here tonight reminds of a couple of Al Brooks quotes:

1. Trending days/periods are usually the most lucrative, but often hard to be tempted to enter (never seems like a good time to get on-board)
2. Trade the number of contracts you don't care about losing (Pav - interesting to hear your thoughts on the psychology of 2 contracts)


It shouldn't matter scaling up, but that's just the way we're built (most of us)