The Top of the market is Looming?

[aus_trader]

Maybe some of these quotes are worth considering when playing the guessing game. Plus making sure we always remember cash is king in the end: As never mind what it is including cryptocurrencies it is always related to cash in the end. Being short of cash or negative must be avoided.

"It's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong." — George Soros

"I don't look to jump over seven-foot bars; I look around for one-foot bars that I can step over." — Warren Buffett

"The biggest risk of all is not taking one." — Mellody Hobson

"The four most dangerous words in investing are, it’s different this time." — Sir John Templeton

"Wide diversification is only required when investors do not understand what they are doing." — Warren Buffett

"The most contrarian thing of all is not to oppose the crowd but to think for yourself." — Peter Thiel

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets." — Peter Lynch

Won't try to guess the market direction, I am usually wrong. Would be nice if it keeps booming for the next decade.

But love those quotes by market legends.

 

[gartley]

Personally don't care which direction only diminishing volatility

 

[gartley]

Weekly chart of SPX, which have been oberving for weeks now. Market looks to have reached an extreme of the cycles channel below (+ 3 standard deviations) of the % price excursions from nominal trend ( green line). Market moves from one extreme to another within the channel. If an extreme is not reached then trend usually persists.
Coupled with the Cycles based FT Swing indicator which is clearly showing that trend is running out of steam here...
Similar FT swing chart exhibited buy Bitcoin (lower chart) some months back. Although no idea how far a correction would carry if it starts I would not be surprised to ultimately see SPX 3200-3300.

 

[gartley]

Looking at commodities and specifically CRB Index of which Crude OIl is a big component. Has completed a textbook impulse and ending diagonal red wave 5. USD looks to be continuing bullishly for now so a sharp correction will probably start soon in the CRB Index.
Other markets like the NASDAQ 100 also show close to having a completed impulse. Gonna be some wild months ahead imo and possibly the largest correction sonce March 2020

 

[over9k]

Whilst there's always going to be a new top eventually, there's quite a few positions that have bounced off their tops a few times now. The S&P traded in a beautiful range for quite a while last year and semiconductors are now doing the same thing:



I trimmed a bit at 44.50 and am now kicking myself for not diving back in below the $40 mark.

 

[Smurf1976]

Well the attachment speaks a thousand words ? liquid squeeze? Not looking good ?

Meanwhile in China:

Does China know something the rest of the world doesn’t?

China’s change to its monetary policy has raised questions about just how concerned it is about its slowing economy.

www.smh.com.au

The government announced a 50 basis point reduction in its reserve requirement ratio, effective from this Thursday, which should add about 1 trillion yuan ($210 billion) of liquidity to its banking system.

Seems like an interesting coincidence with timing?

 

[qldfrog]

Meanwhile in China:

Does China know something the rest of the world doesn’t?

China’s change to its monetary policy has raised questions about just how concerned it is about its slowing economy.

www.smh.com.au

Seems like an interesting coincidence with timing?

Was reading the same.

 

[gartley]

Well SPX has almost reached upper trendline. What now? Long term Delta chart suggestes time is almost up and trend must change until down fo the rest of the year....

 

[over9k]

If the market does dump, I doubt it'll be for that reason.

Currently, everyones' heads are spinning over the delta variant.

 

[Gunnerguy]

Well SPX has almost reached upper trendline. What now? Long term Delta chart suggestes time is almost up and trend must change unView attachment 127506til down fo the rest of the year....
View attachment 127507

How can anyone not look at the second chart and see that the market is probably 1,000 over valued ? I’m not a TA chart reader (anymore) however really, would anyone not be surprised if we had a 20%-25% drop ?
I’m certainly getting scared. I reduced my stock holdings on Monday and have 1 to 1.5 years in cash. ‘A bird in the hand’.
Yes I may be missing some growth, and realised some CGT, but happy to take some good gains off the table after the last 15 months (BTD last year) and maybe BTD if there is a, say 15% drop.
Not quite sleepless nights but a bit concerned now.

Gunnerguy.
(FOMO << BITH)

 

[qldfrog]

How can anyone not look at the second chart and see that the market is probably 1,000 over valued ? I’m not a TA chart reader (anymore) however really, would anyone not be surprised if we had a 20%-25% drop ?
I’m certainly getting scared. I reduced my stock holdings on Monday and have 1 to 1.5 years in cash. ‘A bird in the hand’.
Yes I may be missing some growth, and realised some CGT, but happy to take some good gains off the table after the last 15 months (BTD last year) and maybe BTD if there is a, say 15% drop.
Not quite sleepless nights but a bit concerned now.

Gunnerguy.
(FOMO << BITH)

Bith?.. English as a foreign language....

 

[gartley]

If the market does dump, I doubt it'll be for that reason.

Currently, everyones' heads are spinning over the delta variant.

Talking about timing, strange coincidence all these variants seemed to arrive just in time for worldwide vaccine rollouts....
As for markets dumping look at the chart above, some of the most critical market turns coincided with future cycle points that where generated from years back, namely cycle points 16, 8 are two of the best ones.....
That doesn't mean it will happen that way this time. But looking at a series of charts and methods can add a little weight. Completed 5 wave structures, cycles starting to roll over, price extremes within a channel.
Then most will say the that central banks (namely the trading desk at the FED) won't allow it. Maybe so, but they couldn't prevent the COVID dump last year either.

 

[aus_trader]

If the market does dump, I doubt it'll be for that reason.

Currently, everyones' heads are spinning over the delta variant.

Delta could be the trigger, so we should tread carefully I guess.

I am going about things as normal, still researching companies and buying stocks since it's bull market until proven otherwise.

Just bought an asx stock that has the tailwind of a global trend taking place in the Speculative Stock Portfolio.

 

[Smurf1976]

I am going about things as normal, still researching companies and buying stocks since it's bull market until proven otherwise.

Likewise.

I’m presently over 94% in stocks and 5% in USD but if circumstances change then I’ll be out, every share has a stop loss set.

 

[aus_trader]

Likewise.

I’m presently over 94% in stocks and 5% in USD but if circumstances change then I’ll be out, every share has a stop loss set.

Great, the important thing is that you have that protection in place. Me too, except some long term holdings such as dividend paying TLS, AGL and those in Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio that I will hold through a downturn or sell at my own discretion due to change of market conditions.

I have a smaller % invested in the market at the moment as I have sold out of several stocks recently. But there is no reason to hold back on deploying those funds as opportunities arise in the market. Until all hell breaks loose...

 

[over9k]

I posted this over in the virus thread:



I've noticed with a lot of trends in individual stocks as well as the market that when they break below trend they'll only resume it in a channel below it rather than above it.

So previously it'd run above trend, then dip back down to kiss the trendline, then bounce back up again.

After, it'll dump below trend, rebound UP to kiss the trendline, and then drop back down again:




I sold some at 128, it peaked at 133. Been really annoyed at myself for missing several big opportunities lately. Not flipping enough crypto dips, not selling enough NIO when it peaked, not rebuying back into soxl after timing the latest sell almost to the cent, not buying BTU when it dipped below $7, not rebuying back into HNRG when it dipped back down nearly 20% TWICE, so on and so on...

If my ultra sophisticated trend analysis above is accurate, TQQQ is a rebuy at about the 113-114 mark.

 

[qldfrog]

Great, the important thing is that you have that protection in place. Me too, except some long term holdings such as dividend paying TLS, AGL and those in Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio that I will hold through a downturn or sell at my own discretion due to change of market conditions.

I have a smaller % invested in the market at the moment as I have sold out of several stocks recently. But there is no reason to hold back on deploying those funds as opportunities arise in the market. Until all hell breaks loose...

I just noted that i am 50% cash with my systems, so not a decision made, just buy switched off by programs.
I do not want to do a conscious decision, otherwise i am too early to get out..and in

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Bith?.. English as a foreign language....

Bird in the hand

(worth two in the bush)

 

[Gunnerguy]

Bith?.. English as a foreign language....

FOMO << BITH ....

The value of 'Fear of Missing Out' is significantly lower than 'Bird in the Hand'. Thus Happy to have some cash and not fear about missing a further possible rise .....

Gunnerguy

 

[over9k]

Ask the delta variant IMHO gunner. I'm 80% USD denominated so I'm significantly cushioned.