The Top of the market is Looming?

[divs4ever]

How the stock market is likely to react to the election outcome​

Published Tue, Oct 29 2024 CNBC

am more worried about how the population will react ( since i have mainly focused on Asia , Australia and NZ )

i have mostly avoided the US and EU thinking they are mature ( stale , and lacking real initiative/growth)

now NZ actually admits they are in a recession ( so there is some hope for them ) , Asia will encounter some fall-out , depending on if Japan actually , finally implodes , Australia well time will tell for a 'lucky country ' we have wasted many opportunities in recent years .

now a rather unnoticed point is ... China is now starting it's own round of sanctions , and since it is still 'the global manufacturing heart ' that MIGHT mean blowout inflation ( other nations can make stuff .. but not as cheap as China does )

this time i haven't even bought some BBUS ( i do hold some BEAR though )

 

[TimeISmoney]

am more worried about how the population will react ( since i have mainly focused on Asia , Australia and NZ )

i have mostly avoided the US and EU thinking they are mature ( stale , and lacking real initiative/growth)

now NZ actually admits they are in a recession ( so there is some hope for them ) , Asia will encounter some fall-out , depending on if Japan actually , finally implodes , Australia well time will tell for a 'lucky country ' we have wasted many opportunities in recent years .

now a rather unnoticed point is ... China is now starting it's own round of sanctions , and since it is still 'the global manufacturing heart ' that MIGHT mean blowout inflation ( other nations can make stuff .. but not as cheap as China does )

this time i haven't even bought some BBUS ( i do hold some BEAR though )

But remember our circle of money is selling raw commodities to China, China turns them into goods and then sells them to the rest of the world including Australia.

Part of the other world is the US as they're one of the biggest consumers of products and one of the wealthiest buyers.

Trump gets in and cuts the imports off with large tariffs you know where the rest of the other economies are heading, and Inflation will be collateral damage.

Maybe it's what Australia really needs to get rid of all the deadwood in unproductive jobs and make us more competitive on the world scale.

 

[divs4ever]

well we should have taken a lesson from Ms. Rinehart by selling to the rest of Asia not just solely China , we missed ( mostly ) a huge market in India ( and possibly Mexico )

chances are we have the wrong administration in to correct errors quickly and change strategies ( including manufacturing more locally )

long term Trump looks like the better choice for President , but short term all i see is UGLY ( and MORE debt in most cases )

Australia has picked the razor-wire fence to straddle , and i don't see agile-thinkers in Canberra

PS i suspect NO rate cut for us on Tuesday ( or in the US this week )

 

[Value Collector]

But remember our circle of money is selling raw commodities to China, China turns them into goods and then sells them to the rest of the world including Australia.

Part of the other world is the US as they're one of the biggest consumers of products and one of the wealthiest buyers.

Trump gets in and cuts the imports off with large tariffs you know where the rest of the other economies are heading, and Inflation will be collateral damage.

Maybe it's what Australia really needs to get rid of all the deadwood in unproductive jobs and make us more competitive on the world scale.

The tariffs are just a tax on the American consumer, it isn’t actually going to change the flow of goods much over all.

Sure some things will be made in America instead of imported, but then there are offsetting factors.

Eg, if the USA imports less steel from China, they will export less scrap to China, because they will consume that scrap themselves. And Canada will send more steel to the USA instead of Europe, so European imports from China will rise, and there will be less scrap from the USA competing with our virgin iron ore.

Markets are so complex,

 

[TimeISmoney]

The tariffs are just a tax on the American consumer, it isn’t actually going to change the flow of goods much over all.

What's the whole idea of the tariffs, it's to tax the hell out of Chinese imports so that US manufacturing becomes viable in the US.
Haven't you been listening to what Trump has said, Trump will try to bring back local manufacturing to the US.

Europe already has its own set of problems, I don't think they'll take the excess goods from China.

 

[TimeISmoney]

well we should have taken a lesson from Ms. Rinehart by selling to the rest of Asia not just solely China , we missed ( mostly ) a huge market in India ( and possibly Mexico )

chances are we have the wrong administration in to correct errors quickly and change strategies ( including manufacturing more locally )

long term Trump looks like the better choice for President , but short term all i see is UGLY ( and MORE debt in most cases )

Australia has picked the razor-wire fence to straddle , and i don't see agile-thinkers in Canberra

PS i suspect NO rate cut for us on Tuesday ( or in the US this week )

India already has its own iron ore supply, and it's a better grade than what we have.

BHP and RIO Tinto are our biggest corporate taxpayers, if Canberra doesn't start to work fast to resolve these problems we're going to be in a world of hurt in a few years to come.

If we try to manufacture in Australia imagine the inflation we're going to see, the same goes for the US.

 

[divs4ever]

India already has its own iron ore supply, and it's a better grade than what we have.

BHP and RIO Tinto are our biggest corporate taxpayers, if Canberra doesn't start to work fast to resolve these problems we're going to be in a world of hurt in a few years to come.

If we try to manufacture in Australia imagine the inflation we're going to see, the same goes for the US.

inflation , yes , but real jobs/career paths as well ,

earning money usually involves some discomfort in the process ( and you learn to respect it and value it ) unlike the current trend towards digits on a screen

 

[Country Lad]

What's the whole idea of the tariffs, it's to tax the hell out of Chinese imports so that US manufacturing becomes viable in the US.
Haven't you been listening to what Trump has said, Trump will try to bring back local manufacturing to the US.

I have a little different take on the tariffs.
Firstly, it is not a tax on China it is a tax to be paid by US consumers at the higher product prices.

Yes the higher prices will give more incentive for local manufacturers. However, most of those production facilities are no more, some having been located to other countries, some closed permanently or some lying around in disrepair. Consequently, it could take some years to gear up industry for domestic production. In the meantime the higher prices which need to be paid for those products will add to inflation and increase the cost of living problem.

 

[TimeISmoney]

I have a little different take on the tariffs.
Firstly, it is not a tax on China it is a tax to be paid by US consumers at the higher product prices.

Yes the higher prices will give more incentive for local manufacturers. However, most of those production facilities are no more, some having been located to other countries, some closed permanently or some lying around in disrepair. Consequently, it could take some years to gear up industry for domestic production. In the meantime the higher prices which need to be paid for those products will add to inflation and increase the cost of living problem.

It's basically there to dissuade people from buying Chinese made products and buying from elsewhere, another problem they'll face is who is going to buy overpriced products from the US, probably only them. One thing he promised in his election was to bring automotive assembly but most of it is robotics these days.

Trump claims 60% import tariffs on Chinese made goods and 100% on Chinese cars, 10% on EU and other countries like India, Brazil and so on, so going to impact the world economy a fair bit but more so China.

My personal opinion at this stage is that we're better off with Harris.

 

[Country Lad]

and other countries like India, Brazil and so on, so going to impact the world economy a fair bit but more so China.

My personal opinion at this stage is that we're better off with Harris.

Maybe the US market is starting to feel the same way. Trump Media which hosts Trump's "Truth" social media platform down 13% last night.

Close
30.56

-4.78 (-13.53%)
Volume
65,510,438
52 week range
11.75 - 79.38

 

[TimeISmoney]

China’s small manufacturers anguish over Trump’s tariff plans​

Republican candidate’s plans to slap tariffs of 60 percent or more on imports has businesses in China worried.
By Frederik Kelter

Published On 4 Nov 2024

Taichung, Taiwan – When Li Wei took over the running of his father’s glass-making business in northern China’s Cangzhou in 2020, he immediately set about optimising the firm’s operations.

Li moved Hebei Yiyue Glass Products’ sole factory from its city location to a site outside Cangzhou, providing better access to important road networks and more space to expand the facility.


At the same time, Li changed the primary focus of the company from selling glass components to customers in China to exporting finished glass products to customers abroad.

Today, he oversees a successful export business that sells cups, pots and jars throughout the world and employs twice as many workers as when he took over.

Much of Li’s success is owed to the demand for his products in the United States, which in recent years has been the destination for as much as 80 percent of his company’s exports.

But now, Li and his colleagues are concerned that their success could all come crashing down if former US President Donald Trump is re-elected to the White House on November 5.

Trump, who is running neck and neck with Vice President Kamala Harris in a race that is too close to call, has floated plans for tariffs of 60 percent or more on all goods heading to the US from China.

Economists have dubbed Trump’s plans “Tariff War 2.0”, after the Republican imposed tariffs as high as 25 percent on a range of Chinese goods during his first term in office, prompting Beijing to announce its own tariffs in turn.

“Such a large increase in tariffs by the United States will definitely have a great impact on me and my business,” Li told Al Jazeera.

“It will result in our products not being competitive, and at the very least our sales in the US will drop sharply.”

Since Trump’s announcement, Li has been working 12-hour days to identify other export destinations that could offset a downturn in his US business.

So far, he has not been able to find a substitute for the world’s largest market.
“I’m very busy trying to find solutions, but some days the situation feels terrible,” he said. “Often, I don’t like to think about it.”

Gary Ng, a senior economist with investment bank Natixis in Hong Kong, said that Chinese exporters have serious cause for concern if Trump re-enters the White House and follows through on his plans.

“With tariff rates at 60 percent, many Chinese manufacturers would no longer be competitive or able to turn a profit from their exports to the US market,” Ng told Al Jazeera.

“For the Chinese companies that are particularly exposed to the US market, this would be problematic, and they could face a lot of pressure.”

Among exporters already feeling the pressure is Sotech, a producer of advanced electronic components based in Shanghai, according to company sales manager Dong Sion.

“I was shocked,” Dong told Al Jazeera, referring to the moment she first heard about Trump’s proposals.

More than 90 percent of Sotech’s products, which include smart glasses, are exported overseas, with about 30 percent of those exports going to the US.

“If 60 percent tariffs are imposed then it could disrupt our US business or even end it completely,” Dong said.

“And we would be forced to cut staff.”

For some Chinese companies, additional tariffs could prove to be the fatal blow at a time of already challenging conditions in the world’s second-largest economy, said Allan Von Mehren, chief analyst and China economist at Danske Bank.

“It would have big repercussions in China,” Von Mehren told Al Jazeera.

The US is by far the top destination for China’s exports, taking in more than $400bn worth of its goods each year.

With so much trade at risk, UBS has estimated that imposing a 60 percent tariff, on top of existing tariffs, would lower China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth by 2.5 percentage points over the next 12 months.

Such a hit would come at an inopportune time for the world’s second-largest economy.

An ailing property sector, low consumer confidence and household spending well below the global average are all weighing on growth, while the country’s traditional investment-fuelled, export-led development model is struggling to pick up the slack.

Facing such headwinds, Chinese authorities are widely seen as unlikely to hit the government’s growth target of about 5 percent – a challenge that will only get harder if Chinese exporters lose US market access due to new tariffs.
ily Wang, a recent university graduate who works at Li Wei’s glass-making company outside Cangzhou, said she is afraid that new tariffs combined with the poor state of the Chinese economy will lead to a surge in unemployed workers and worsening working conditions for those who are employed.

“Chinese employers are cutting a lot of things already, and if trade with the US declines, I’m worried that it will get even worse,” Wang told Al Jazeera.

The actual damage to the Chinese economy from the tariffs is likely to depend on companies’ ability to adapt, Ng said.

“Some companies might try to diversify their export structure or move their production to other countries and then export to the US from there,” he said.

Some Chinese firms have already taken such measures.

At Hebei Cangzhou New Century International Trade, a construction materials company in Hebei province that sends about 40 percent of its exports to the US, the management is considering teaming up with manufacturers in Indonesia.

“A 60 percent tariff rate cannot be covered by our export profits,” Vice President Lucy Zhang told Al Jazeera.

“So, we are looking into ways to indirectly export to the US instead.”

At the same time, the Chinese government has been working on nurturing new markets for Chinese exporters.

In September, Beijing hosted 50 African nations for the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation, which aimed to boost African imports of Chinese products, particularly solar panels and electric vehicles.

China is Africa’s biggest trading partner, as well as the leading trade partner of most South American nations.

“Beijing has known for a while now that relations with the US were not going to significantly improve any time soon and has tried to gain better access for its companies in countries where the bilateral relations are friendlier,” Von Mehren said.

Despite China expanding trade with friendlier nations, it is unclear whether a replacement exists for the vast volumes of Chinese goods going to the US.

In some cases, US restrictions on Chinese imports have been quickly emulated in other jurisdictions.

In May, US President Joe Biden’s administration announced that tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles would be raised to 100 percent, effectively shutting the door to the US market.

The European Union announced tariffs as high as 38.1 percent on Chinese EVs the following month.

Since then, Turkey and Canada have followed suit with similar measures.

“As some countries take actions against Chinese exports, a concern can quickly set in among other countries that a Chinese surplus will be dumped on their markets causing them to take action as well,” Von Mehren said.

Trump has also suggested he would impose steep tariffs on Mexico, where Chinese EV companies are considering building new production facilities to circumvent tariffs.

“All I’m doing is saying ‘I’ll put 200 or 500, I don’t care.’ I’ll put a number where they can’t sell one car,” Trump said earlier this month during an interview with Fox News.

China has responded to the various trade measures in kind, launching anti-dumping investigations into European pork and Canadian canola, for example, and imposing export controls on rare elements used in the production of semiconductors.

While directed at China, Trump’s tariff hikes would also likely be keenly felt in the US.

In an analysis published in September, the Peterson Institute for International Economics estimated that the measures would cause a 0.4 percent rise in inflation in 2025 and 0.23 percent loss in GDP by 2027.


The rise in inflation and GDP losses would double if Beijing retaliates, the think tank said.

Liu Pengyu, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in Washington, DC, said there would be no winners from a new trade war.

“Artificial restrictions or protectionism will only disrupt normal trade flows and the stability of the production and supply chain which serves the interests of no one,” Liu told Al Jazeera.

Back in Hebei, Li Wei struggles to see an upside for consumers or workers in Trump’s plans.

“But I don’t know – those in power do what they want,” he said.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So, in keeping with the thread’s title is it time to sell everything and go away for a while.?

gg

 

[Country Lad]

So, in keeping with the thread’s title is it time to sell everything and go away for a while.?

gg

Yes maybe, but only till insurrection/civil war is over after Trump loses the election.

 

[Bellcose]

So, in keeping with the thread’s title is it time to sell everything and go away for a while.?

gg

Please do. It will cause my holdings to be less expensive than they are now so I'll get them at a more favourable price.

 

[divs4ever]

Yes maybe, but only till insurrection/civil war is over after Trump loses the election.

so you concede this one will be rigged as well ( as most have been since GW Bush got in )

 

[divs4ever]

Please do. It will cause my holdings to be less expensive than they are now so I'll get them at a more favourable price.

am not sure i can beat some of my current entry prices , will probably try to add a few more selected shares ( cheap )

 

[divs4ever]

HOWEVER i might still have a chance of nabbing the XAO prediction comp. ( i selected 55?? something )

and that might make me smile

 

[Value Hunter]

I have a little different take on the tariffs.
Firstly, it is not a tax on China it is a tax to be paid by US consumers at the higher product prices.

Yes the higher prices will give more incentive for local manufacturers. However, most of those production facilities are no more, some having been located to other countries, some closed permanently or some lying around in disrepair. Consequently, it could take some years to gear up industry for domestic production. In the meantime the higher prices which need to be paid for those products will add to inflation and increase the cost of living problem.

Short term the tariffs are highly inflationary but long-term I think their will be an impact of course but the impact will be less than people predict for a few reasons:

1) Moving manufacturing back to the U.S.A. etc will reduce transportation costs and transport costs will likely rise if the oil price rises in the future (likely).
2) Chinese wages have risen substantially over the last ten years as has all of their other costs of doing business (taxes, rent/land prices, etc).
3) The new factories getting built today are often highly automated and require far fewer employees than the legacy factories built 30 or 40 years ago. This means any wage differential will become less important over time.

 

[Value Collector]

What's the whole idea of the tariffs, it's to tax the hell out of Chinese imports so that US manufacturing becomes viable in the US.
Haven't you been listening to what Trump has said, Trump will try to bring back local manufacturing to the US.

Europe already has its own set of problems, I don't think they'll take the excess goods from China.

Yeah, so it’s forcing US consumers who are already complaining about inflation, to pay higher prices, by adding a tax on the lower cost producers.

It would be like bringing in a tax on German owned ALDI, to force more consumers to shop at Australian owned Cole’s and Woolies.

Sure it might have some sort of benefit to certain Aussies, but taking away the cheaper option for Australian low income earners would not be great in my opinion.

 

[Value Collector]

India already has its own iron ore supply, and it's a better grade than what we have.

BHP and RIO Tinto are our biggest corporate taxpayers, if Canberra doesn't start to work fast to resolve these problems we're going to be in a world of hurt in a few years to come.

If we try to manufacture in Australia imagine the inflation we're going to see, the same goes for the US.

India’s local Iron Ore is not enough to support itself. imports small amounts of Iron ore, but large amounts of scrap steel, large amounts of finished steel, and large amounts of steel products like machinery etc etc.

So as India grows, it will be a net plus to sea Bourne iron ore demand.