The Top of the market is Looming?

[sptrawler]

Aldi sell cardboard coffins.

If Covid gets worse it will be "Bring out yer dead" time again.

Funeral homes are not on my buy list.

We are just about to hit peak boomer cark so it's all downhill for nursing homes, funeral parlours and ..... boomers.

gg

So obviously when the kids inherit, it is boom time for flight center, ahg automotive, jb hifi, hardly normal, netflicks, bws, dan murphys and dominos pizza.lol

 

[qldfrog]

Great to hear an opinion thanks. I have tested it and broken even because of not watching it as you said. It is a work in progress and I am willing to wait for the strong downturns whenI believe it will be hard to beat. It is not for smaller fluctuations just for when the US dives the night before.

You will find that bboz price at open will already factor the increase.so it will work only if the us market is falling on more than 1d. you can build something based on this,but not that simple

 

[qldfrog]

Back to the top of the market:
Biden's tax policy leak includes some major hikes on CGT
For $1 million earners in high-tax states, rates on capital gains could be above 50%. For New Yorkers, the combined state and federal capital gains rate could be as high as 52.22%. For Californians, it could be 56.7%.
So a very logical fall in the market, suprisingly the russell 2000 was still positive amid a sea of red..
Maybe a surge in stocks providing nappies,emergency shelter tents and food rations companies.
I welcome our fellow americans to the new green and universal socialism.enjoy?

 

[pozindustrial]

Yes AU follows USA quite closely. U.S futures are good to eyeball late in the afternoon if you're thinking about selling off on a cheeky day trade

It appears that the USA market follows ours! I am no expert with graphs, but an overlay of S&P500 on our XJO asx200 seemed to strongly indicate over the last 12 mths that they follow us rather than we follow them on a roughly day to day basis. Could this be true? I may have been looking at this the wrong way.

 

[over9k]

no lol

 

[pozindustrial]

no lol

Cheers, but it is not definite looking at the charts. Hard to actually work it out looking at day to day data around crashes, rather than a trend and taking into consideration that we are about 12hrs ahead. A fool's errand perhaps, too many factors involved.

 

[greggles]

It appears that the USA market follows ours! I am no expert with graphs, but an overlay of S&P500 on our XJO asx200 seemed to strongly indicate over the last 12 mths that they follow us rather than we follow them on a roughly day to day basis. Could this be true? I may have been looking at this the wrong way.

The US GDP is $21.5 trillion USD, while Australia's is $1.4 trillion USD, so their economy is more than 15 times larger than ours. The global influence of the US economy is therefore much greater than ours and is the reason why our market follows theirs, rather than the other way around.

 

[pozindustrial]

The US GDP is $21.5 trillion USD, while Australia's is $1.4 trillion USD, so their economy is more than 15 times larger than ours. The global influence of the US economy is therefore much greater than ours and is the reason why our market follows theirs, rather than the other way around.

Sure, good point, and their population used to be 14+ times Australia. I still export my tools there, have visited several times and I agree that when they sneeze we catch a cold. I am a sharemarket newbie trying to find a reentry point if the market collapses via bboz shares and my mission is to find a signal, but I think that is impossible. However, I still want to get an idea of patterns eg. how long the market takes in decline etc.

 

[debtfree]

 

[pozindustrial]

View attachment 123630

Thanks for that graph. I have been comparing our ASX 200 XJO with the S&P500 on a day by day basis. Nowhere near finished. Particularly in the month of 2008 crash and the month of the March 2020 crash looking for signals such as who dropped first, them or us knowing we are ahead of them. I am trying to compare our graphs of XJO to see if they line up with the US graphs of XJO in case the US ones are a day out of sync or if they are actual dates which is far more likely. My problem is I am using free graphs and it has not been easy to work out that comparison yet. Can't work on it all day, but I will get back to it.

 

[over9k]

You sound very young poz.

There's an old saying "When america sneezes, the world catches a cold".

The 'states IS the world's financial centre, and the safe haven, and the most powerful country in the world etc etc. Not to say there aren't some exceptions/anomalies out there, but broadly speaking, the world follows the USA.

 

[pozindustrial]

You sound very young poz.

There's an old saying "When america sneezes, the world catches a cold".

The 'states IS the world's financial centre, and the safe haven, and the most powerful country in the world etc etc. Not to say there aren't some exceptions/anomalies out there, but broadly speaking, the world follows the USA.

Yeah, I mentioned that saying four posts up. I believe I have 30 more productive years left, I will be 100 then! By the way over9K, I enjoy your posts.

 

[over9k]

Ah yes I see you're a newbie. Same thing, so to speak.

This is america's world, we just live in it.


If you're just starting out on charting, I wrote up a handy beginners' guide you can find here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...reading-101-for-beginners.36157/#post-1115847

 

[over9k]

Sure, good point, and their population used to be 14+ times Australia. I still export my tools there, have visited several times and I agree that when they sneeze we catch a cold. I am a sharemarket newbie trying to find a reentry point if the market collapses via bboz shares and my mission is to find a signal, but I think that is impossible. However, I still want to get an idea of patterns eg. how long the market takes in decline etc.

Ok @pozindustrial I just had a re-read of things and now I can see what you're trying to do. Just to clarify, you want to enter with BBOZ, which is a bet AGAINST the market, but you're trying to find a reentry point if the market collapses?

Are you trying to time a bet against the market?

 

[pozindustrial]

Ok @pozindustrial I just had a re-read of things and now I can see what you're trying to do. Just to clarify, you want to enter with BBOZ, which is a bet AGAINST the market, but you're trying to find a reentry point if the market collapses?

Are you trying to time a bet against the market?

I guess so. If I buy bboz now and the market rallies again I lose a lot quickly so I am investigating past daily movements before other crashes to see if there is a cue from overnight us market movements before the big slide. My ideal is to cover most of the slide and of course get in as early as possible.
Betting against the market requires balls a few sizes bigger than mine so I am looking for ways to enter once it begins.

 

[over9k]

That's assuming it begins though...

 

[pozindustrial]

Yes, I have made that 'market bust' assumption based on many signs. I first got interested in stocks after the 1984/5 (from memory) times of a sharp recession followed by a boom and a bust in 1987. I read some great objective tutorials in the 1990s about investing in general which of course covered property, collectibles, futures, options, stocks, value investing, bonds, booms and busts including what happened during the 1990s after 1987 so it was very current showing strategies over a boom/bust period which demystified investing. The missing part was the zero interest rates scenario. I did some basic trading, using the Rivkin Report for guidance and tips, then got out and just kept an interest. Now I want to increase my super assets so I can retire more comfortably in a few years so I am looking for the fastest way to do that with an acceptable level of safety (for me).

The signs of a bust I see are:
Things are way off balance. P/E ratios are off the scale, there is 'fashionable' investing and talk of easy money on the streets, the markets have continued to rise at an accelerated pace during bad economic times, fortunes have been publicized with tech stocks that lack fundamentals, historically busts follow booms (like night follows day) and this boom has gone on way too long. There are whackos talking doom and gloom all over the internet competing with their opposite numbers spruiking fortune, but there are some very respectable people issuing warnings with good fundamental reasons and I believe them. In my opinion it is all coming together and the longer it goes on or the higher the market rises the bigger the fall will be. That is simply the law of nature or balance. To me a bust is correctly predicted, but nobody can predict the timing accurately. I regard the present as 'High Fire Danger' times, that is my gut feeling.

There are many stories of investors who cashed out before a bust and did exceptionally well investing after and I aspire to be one of those even though my assets are modest. I have changed my industry super funds to cash as well after seeing negative returns for about three years after the 1987 crash. I can do without that this time around. It is cheap ($11) to change the investment strategy with an industry super fund, but as I build my SMSF I will use different strategies and this is my beginning.

I am not a seasoned trader so I cannot comfortably make money during these times and get out quickly like many of you guys. My chosen option is to sit in cash and wait, but with bboz I can make large profits when most are losing them during a crash and then pick up good stock with the winnings. I see that as my best chance to increase my assets quickly. It might be spectacular, or it might be subdued, but I do not believe I will lose over twelve months with this plan.

I just have to study patterns to give myself my best chance of moving at the correct time. I have to weigh this against the risk factors and try to work out the signs that tell me when and how to move.

 

[basilio]

Yes, I have made that 'market bust' assumption based on many signs. I first got interested in stocks after the 1984/5 (from memory) times of a sharp recession followed by a boom and a bust in 1987. I read some great objective tutorials in the 1990s about investing in general which of course covered property, collectibles, futures, options, stocks, value investing, bonds, booms and busts including what happened during the 1990s after 1987 so it was very current showing strategies over a boom/bust period which demystified investing. The missing part was the zero interest rates scenario. I did some basic trading, using the Rivkin Report for guidance and tips, then got out and just kept an interest. Now I want to increase my super assets so I can retire more comfortably in a few years so I am looking for the fastest way to do that with an acceptable level of safety (for me).

The signs of a bust I see are:
Things are way off balance. P/E ratios are off the scale, there is 'fashionable' investing and talk of easy money on the streets, the markets have continued to rise at an accelerated pace during bad economic times, fortunes have been publicized with tech stocks that lack fundamentals, historically busts follow booms (like night follows day) and this boom has gone on way too long. There are whackos talking doom and gloom all over the internet competing with their opposite numbers spruiking fortune, but there are some very respectable people issuing warnings with good fundamental reasons and I believe them. In my opinion it is all coming together and the longer it goes on or the higher the market rises the bigger the fall will be. That is simply the law of nature or balance. To me a bust is correctly predicted, but nobody can predict the timing accurately. I regard the present as 'High Fire Danger' times, that is my gut feeling.

There are many stories of investors who cashed out before a bust and did exceptionally well investing after and I aspire to be one of those even though my assets are modest. I have changed my industry super funds to cash as well after seeing negative returns for about three years after the 1987 crash. I can do without that this time around. It is cheap ($11) to change the investment strategy with an industry super fund, but as I build my SMSF I will use different strategies and this is my beginning.

I am not a seasoned trader so I cannot comfortably make money during these times and get out quickly like many of you guys. My chosen option is to sit in cash and wait, but with bboz I can make large profits when most are losing them during a crash and then pick up good stock with the winnings. I see that as my best chance to increase my assets quickly. It might be spectacular, or it might be subdued, but I do not believe I will lose over twelve months with this plan.

I just have to study patterns to give myself my best chance of moving at the correct time. I have to weigh this against the risk factors and try to work out the signs that tell me when and how to move.

Pretty comprehensive analaysis Poz. I too feel exceptionally uneasy about the "strength" of the current market. IMV far too many people swimming naked.

I suspect the triggers will be the economic fallout from COVID in India, Brazil and some other countries currently under seige. I suspect a collapse will be very, very quick. I think the widespread speculation in crypto currencies and the risk of most of them imploding is also underestimated.

I'm not saying this analysis says it all but the recognition that US business have some pretty big exposures is sobering.

The Looming Bank Collapse

The U.S. financial system could be on the cusp of calamity. This time, we might not be able to save it.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[pozindustrial]

I think there are two ways to look at it. The first is to analyse data from many sources, but my brain is not good enough to do that and there are many streams of data to consider. The other way is to step back and look around with the knowledge that busts always follow booms and booms are usually frenzied just before they end as if there is no tomorrow. We are in that frenzy now but it could still continue for a year or so and that is how I look at it.

This is my personal view on the top-of-the-market.

 

[moXJO]

I'll give you the best money making advice that will make you rich ponz.

Drop the bear attitude.

You can have opinions, but trade what's in front of you from a neutral mind.

I think it will crash but I have a natural "bear mindset".
I'm heavily on longs at the moment till I get skittish.