The state of the economy at the street level

[qldfrog]

Things like manufacturing can't really benefit from a lower Dollar when local production of entire categories of goods has been completely wiped out. Even 100% growth from a base of zero is still zero.

Another issue is that I strongly suspect that certain industries which have become economically significant are so only because of the strength of the Australian economy compared to elsewhere. I'm referring there to the fact that immigration has become an industry in itself and a pretty substantial one at that whereas in the past it was nowhere near as significant. I have doubts about that continuing to be so if the economy goes into recession.

On the other hand, if the AUD drops enough then tourism should pick up with more international visitors.

I think Australia is a bit disillusioned about tourism here, true we only need a small portion of China to visit to fill our hotel but we are so expensive that even a AUD at 20c USD would still be more than what a Cambodia or Thailand resort will ever cost, then while i love Australia, and German tourists usually can to, Chinese can not find here what they look for: high end shopping, food and gambling, with freedom to smoke around, be loud and take selfies
They do not care that much about beaches..can not swim, or desert treks full of flies and animals
As for tourism from elsewhere, we are far too far and with the GW brigade taking over, forget about your cheap 20h flights
As Smurf mentioned above, immigration is an industry: so called education and new buildings are living out of immigration, but so do tourism figures as a lot of tourist visitors are just visiting families
As you can see when disembarking from an intl flight back in Australia
A recession and this would collapse drastically

 

[PZ99]

Let's export some rare earths

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1031367/

 

[qldfrog]

Did not take long
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/eu-nations-aim-high-plan-124313618.html
Bye bye European tourists...
But it's ok, we will save the planet that way ROL

 

[Junior]

Let's export some rare earths

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1031367/

Like it or not, natural resources are still our game. As a country we should hone in on resources required for new technology and renewables. Slow down on coal and gas.

 

[SirRumpole]

Dob in a tax dodger phone lines run hot.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...-surge-in-bid-to-crack-black-economy/11234126

 

[Value Collector]

I think Australia is a bit disillusioned about tourism here, true we only need a small portion of China to visit to fill our hotel but we are so expensive that even a AUD at 20c USD would still be more than what a Cambodia or Thailand resort will ever cost, then while i love Australia, and German tourists usually can to, Chinese can not find here what they look for: high end shopping, food and gambling, with freedom to smoke around, be loud and take selfies
They do not care that much about beaches..can not swim, or desert treks full of flies and animals
As for tourism from elsewhere, we are far too far and with the GW brigade taking over, forget about your cheap 20h flights
As Smurf mentioned above, immigration is an industry: so called education and new buildings are living out of immigration, but so do tourism figures as a lot of tourist visitors are just visiting families
As you can see when disembarking from an intl flight back in Australia
A recession and this would collapse drastically

I do t know, try to get parking anywhere near the three sisters and you will see it’s clogged up with tour groups of Chinese tourists.

Take a look at Sydney airport passenger numbers, it gives some pretty interesting insights into passenger movements.

 

[qldfrog]

Always wonder who dod who
During German occupation in wwii, was mostly caused by envy, family disputes or neighbour quarrels
Rarely done for the better of the country, and not a good sign for the country in my opinion.probably a reflection of the new tribalism..us and them

 

[moXJO]

I've recently seen shopping centers packed out round my way. Restaurants and cafes not so much (or at all) in or around the centers. In fact a few eateries have shut up shop.
Kmart looked packed. High end stores looked barren.

Bunnings seems quiet -to a steady drip of customers.

Car yards are vacant.

I've heard some building trades are getting jobs.

Mixed results

 

[Smurf1976]

Mixed results

Looking at your comments in detail it would seem that consumers are buying cheap essentials (Kmart) but are shunning more expensive options (high end stores) and avoiding altogether the purchase of non-essentials (car yards, restaurants).

That looks to me like consumers being cautious but not actually in trouble yet.

 

[moXJO]

Looking at your comments in detail it would seem that consumers are buying cheap essentials (Kmart) but are shunning more expensive options (high end stores) and avoiding altogether the purchase of non-essentials (car yards, restaurants).

That looks to me like consumers being cautious but not actually in trouble yet.

Thats my thinking.

People are buying the basic necessities in the local area. But seem to be doing it in larger numbers then what I noticed before. Perhaps a small bump in next months figures. And perhaps a result of the rate cut filtering through to the real world.

 

[jbocker]

Walking through the Piccadilly arcade in Perth, a popular link between Perths two main malls, you get a feeling that the retail sector has died. As it looks like 70% of the shops have closed. Only a few have change of location notices poorly displayed. These shops have been gradually closing over a year or two it seems.
It looks horrible and depressing and you are left with the message that retail is in dire shape and shops are doomed. But in reality the Arcade is in renovation and a promise of rejuvenation.

So I ask WHY don't those promoting the development and the retail association display the bright future of the arcade on the empty shop fronts rather than leave passers by and former customers with the gloom of vacancy. That façade and theatre area under renovation is currently boarded no visibility to the public.
It seems maybe they want you to go to the computer to find out what is going on with the development. Maybe while I am there I will shop online too.

I will send a note to the retail association.

 

[moXJO]

Walking through the Piccadilly arcade in Perth, a popular link between Perths two main malls, you get a feeling that the retail sector has died. As it looks like 70% of the shops have closed. Only a few have change of location notices poorly displayed. These shops have been gradually closing over a year or two it seems.
It looks horrible and depressing and you are left with the message that retail is in dire shape and shops are doomed. But in reality the Arcade is in renovation and a promise of rejuvenation.

So I ask WHY don't those promoting the development and the retail association display the bright future of the arcade on the empty shop fronts rather than leave passers by and former customers with the gloom of vacancy. That façade and theatre area under renovation is currently boarded no visibility to the public.
It seems maybe they want you to go to the computer to find out what is going on with the development. Maybe while I am there I will shop online too.

I will send a note to the retail association.

Thats actually a really good idea.
I just need a giant sticker printer and some dodged up pie charts showing customers positive reactions.

I'll let you be chief of staff (you get to press the print button).

 

[qldfrog]

In brisbane north, when shops close in shopping centres, the center will the vacant shop with a kind of kids play area a few fake plants, seats made of palettes with plenty of pillows.cool
But not after crossing 3 of these in your shopping trip

 

[sptrawler]

Walking through the Piccadilly arcade in Perth, a popular link between Perths two main malls, you get a feeling that the retail sector has died. As it looks like 70% of the shops have closed. Only a few have change of location notices poorly displayed. These shops have been gradually closing over a year or two it seems.
It looks horrible and depressing and you are left with the message that retail is in dire shape and shops are doomed. But in reality the Arcade is in renovation and a promise of rejuvenation.

So I ask WHY don't those promoting the development and the retail association display the bright future of the arcade on the empty shop fronts rather than leave passers by and former customers with the gloom of vacancy. That façade and theatre area under renovation is currently boarded no visibility to the public.
It seems maybe they want you to go to the computer to find out what is going on with the development. Maybe while I am there I will shop online too.

I will send a note to the retail association.

The problem with the shops in the centre of Perth is, they are the same shops as are out in the suburban shopping centres, so no one can be bothered with the hassle of going into the City.
When I have been to Melbourne and Sydney, the shops in the City appear niche and a bit different to those in the shopping malls.
Fremantle and Perth CBD's have both died, by the same sword, they used to have family businesses and boutique shops. Now they have nothing no heart, no soul and heaps of homeless.

 

[SirRumpole]

Stock market vs real economy.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06...ful-economy-great-news-for-investors/11239398

 

[Humid]

Looking at your comments in detail it would seem that consumers are buying cheap essentials (Kmart) but are shunning more expensive options (high end stores) and avoiding altogether the purchase of non-essentials (car yards, restaurants).

That looks to me like consumers being cautious but not actually in trouble yet.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...stralia-s-retail-malaise-20190613-p51xav.html

Looks can be deceiving

 

[satanoperca]

Wouldn't have anything to do with that Australia's Private Debt to GDP is now at 205% and
1. No wage growth for at least 5 years
2. Increase in the cost of living (current CPI figures do not reflect reality for the majority of Aussies)
3. Lowest IR's in history, great for debt holders, shi---t for everyone else
4. Globalisation and the rise of internet shopping
5. Automation
6. Ridiculously high shelter prices

Don't need to be a genius to work out that we are heading towards a cliff, just depends on how steep and high the cliff is and how many ledges it has on the way down until we reach the bottom.

Oh, forgot, we don't have leaders in govnut anymore, no long term direction driven by an electorate that only is concerned with themselves.

All in all, nothing has really changed in 100's of years.

 

[Smurf1976]

Wouldn't have anything to do with that Australia's Private Debt to GDP is now at 205% and

2. Increase in the cost of living (current CPI figures do not reflect reality for the majority of Aussies)
3. Lowest IR's in history, great for debt holders, shi---t for everyone else

6. Ridiculously high shelter prices

2 - A few weeks from now it's a given that there'll be complaining as Winter gas and electricity bills start turning up. Whilst Summer attracts most attention among those commenting on the industry due to demand spikes creating supply difficulties, total consumption and thus expenditure for most consumers is substantially higher in Winter. Obvious exception of trpoical regions etc.

Another one that's come to my attention is the cost of cigarettes. I'm not a smoker and agree there are good reasons to discourage it but fact is that the price today is an order of magnitude greater than it was not so long ago. OK, sure, that'll discourage people from smoking which isn't bad in itself but it's not as though the price of fruit and vegetables, gym memberships, health insurance or any other consumable has come down to offset that rise indeed private health insurance has itself seen huge price increases. So from an economic perspective it's just another product that has gone up massively in price.

3 - Yep, there's plenty of people who have at least some cash on deposit who are losing not gaining from the interest rate cuts.

6 - The situation with housing and that money has been borrowed means that in the absence of future strong wages growth, it's effectively a life long problem for an entire generation. That's going to have implications for sure.

 

[sptrawler]

6. Ridiculously high shelter prices
.

Only in Sydney and Melbourne, and only if they aren't an apartment.
I'm sure country towns are a lot cheaper, also if you really want cheap shelter, come to Perth.
Funny how everything is Sydney centric, if you can't afford to buy in Syndey, you have to climb under a rock and die, the World will end.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Crash or severe downturn in the next 6 months, according to my hairdresser. Sounds like a joke doesn't it? He is one of those low intellect guys who is very sensitive and intuitive. Combined with a stable emotional makeup, this makes him brilliant at picking long term turning points in property and financial markets. I've known him for a long time and he has become very wealthy.