The state of the economy at the street level

[Knobby22]

Yeah, today's france 2 tv news claims 3,000 communes have now amped up the taxe d'habitation for the beloved maison secondaires ( All 3 million of 'em ) from 40% to 60% from next year .
Socialism gone mad.
This lunacy all began with Mitterrand , 40 years ago. Blame that B*stard ....and the millions of dimwits that voted for it!

Communes are councils for communities, villages. Don't get hung up on the language.

It relates to people having a second residence, particularly foreigners, that they don't live in much. I know someone personally with a house in France. Singapore does the same thing while Victoria charges you if they find it's not being rented out as many homes just sit empty. 300 pounds extra to the local council a year isn't that much if you are rolling in it but I understand why they would whinge coz costs are going up and heavens forbid that their luxury place in France might be seen to be a bad investment.

French second homes: taxe d’habitation rates continue to rise

Many cities and towns have chosen to apply the maximum surtax of 60% for the part that goes to mairies, often meaning an extra charge of up to €300

www.connexionfrance.com

 

[divs4ever]

Politicians won't say the words until they have to but my own thinking is that blowing up the economy, a recession, is pretty much inevitable.

There's just too many problems and imbalances needing to be fixed.

yes , i agree ( except for , i think we are already in that recession , and the powers are in denial )

 

[moXJO]

Politicians won't say the words until they have to but my own thinking is that blowing up the economy, a recession, is pretty much inevitable.

There's just too many problems and imbalances needing to be fixed.

Yeah agree.
It's hard to see how we get out of this one by coming up roses.

I haven't checked savings rates. But I'm seeing a lot of people (younger people in particular) just saying stuff saving money because you'd never be able to save what's required anyway.

Personally I think we need to massively deflate from here before the system can continue on.

 

[Knobby22]

Personally I think we need to massively deflate from here before the system can continue on.

I think you are right unfortunately.

 

[divs4ever]

Yeah agree.
It's hard to see how we get out of this one by coming up roses.

I haven't checked savings rates. But I'm seeing a lot of people (younger people in particular) just saying stuff saving money because you'd never be able to save what's required anyway.

Personally I think we need to massively deflate from here before the system can continue on.

i was thinking the younger generations were resisting buying a home , because of reducing job security , or bosses insisting you move interstate ( or overseas ) to get that promotion ( or just keep the job )

did i get that entirely wrong ??

i like your deflation solution , but i think they will drag us into a MAJOR war ( so we forget how badly they stuffed up )

 

[wayneL]

Personally I think we need to massively deflate from here before the system can continue on.

Yep the Austrians are right in this count, creative destruction and all that.

So long as there are no stupid bailouts.

 

[divs4ever]

Yep the Austrians are right in this count, creative destruction and all that.

So long as there are no stupid bailouts.

of course there will be selective bail-outs ( maybe secret ones this time )

2020 showed the new way K-shaped recoveries ( and smash more middle class , that's why Scotty from marketing got his [ marching orders ] )

but that won't solve the underlying problems

 

[Smurf1976]

but that won't solve the underlying problems

Looking at the world around me, I see lots of things that are or have recently been at a point where they really can't go much further.

Housing affordability.

Energy.

Stock valuations.

Interest rates.

All have been at some sort of true extreme in recent times in Australia and/or other Western countries and all need pretty drastic change to get back to anything that would count as "normal" in the historical context.

 

[divs4ever]

Looking at the world around me, I see lots of things that are or have recently been at a point where they really can't go much further.

Housing affordability.

Energy.

Stock valuations.

Interest rates.

All have been at some sort of true extreme in recent times in Australia and/or other Western countries and all need pretty drastic change to get back to anything that would count as "normal" in the historical context.

i have been thinking that since the start of 2013 , but here we are

i was certain March 2020 was the 'BIG one' , but nope they pulled out a K-shaped recovery

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Deliveroo has announced it will "immediately" cease operations in Australia after seven years.
A sudden announcement dropped in subscribers' inboxes this afternoon with a statement confirming that the company will "permanently cease trading immediately".
By the time the statement landed, the mobile app had already stopped taking orders.

Never understood the business model. Will all those doing delivery lose their 'special skills' visas?

 

[Smurf1976]

Deliveroo has announced it will "immediately" cease operations in Australia after seven years.
A sudden announcement dropped in subscribers' inboxes this afternoon with a statement confirming that the company will "permanently cease trading immediately".

The question is what changed?

What happened to prompt an immediate shutdown?

A business ceasing to trade is of itself unremarkable but to do so with zero notice, just an announcement that it's now shut, is unusual and poses questions as to the reasons?

 

[frugal.rock]

Deliveroo has announced it will "immediately" cease operations in Australia after seven years.

A business ceasing to trade is of itself unremarkable but to do so with zero notice, just an announcement that it's now shut, is unusual and poses questions as to the reasons?

Call me cynical...

Who is the main competition?
Who stands to gain from it?

It's likely that the shutdown is a forced hand, otherwise they might have had to pay plenty of unpaid wages/ benefits, due to the employment/ engagement contracts of staff.

Were they based in Victoria? ????

 

[frugal.rock]

Yes, they were based in Victoria.
The creditors are based in Victoria also.

 

[The Triangle]

Who is the main competition?
Who stands to gain from it?

It's likely that the shutdown is a forced hand, otherwise they might have had to pay plenty of unpaid wages/ benefits, due to the employment/ engagement contracts of staff.

Were they based in Victoria? ????

I don't think I ever used Deliveroo but I used ubereats and doordash for a while, but when their costs skyrocketed 12+ months ago and the offers for 50% off, or $10 off, or free delivery evaporated, I stopped. I couldn't see how these companies make money when I'm essentially getting 25 minutes of some broke overseas students' time for $2.99 to $5.99 to fetch me a pizza or for a $12 subscription.

It feels like we've entered a period where the economy will revert back to the natural invest $1 today for $1.10 tomorrow rather than invest $1 today for 1 million users tomorrow who we might be able to monetize for >$1.00 the day after tomorrow. The market was content for the past 15 years to keep pouring money into loss making businesses with the hope they'd grow so massive they could move all the users to 'subscriptions' and make a killing. But the models, estimates, and assumptions are wrong, and people just aren't going to spend $1000 a month on all their subscriptions for everything (like deliveroo, uber eats, Netflix, stan, foxtel, Microsoft 365, amazon, twitter blue tick, lite-n-eazy, all the wine, food, razors, 'hampers' etc. etc. etc) and the investors can't afford to keep blowing billions and billions on loss makers.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Deliveroo is listed on the London Stock Exchange. It launched in Australia in 2015 with headquarters in Melbourne, and recently expanded into grocery delivery with partners BP and EzyMart.

Had 120 staff and 15,000 riders, delivering for 12,000 restaurants.

Main competitors (macro): DoorDash rcently has been spending big to get a foothold, plus the other names are Uber Eats and Menulog. Of course they have cannibalised the local non digital (phone an order and send out the driver) suburban outfits.

Uber and DoorDash have negotiated with the TWU concerning employee / contractor staus. Deliveroo has been arguing (as far as the High Court) on these matters.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And another unsustainable model

 

[divs4ever]

does that mean unemployment rates will rise ( by a noticeable amount )

just asking because the official figures don't reflect the street view i see

 

[JohnDe]

This is the period when zombie companies and poorly managed business go under.

My wife and I went out for dinner Thursday night to celebrate our anniversary. Thursday nights is usually a very busy night in the up-market suburb, the restaurant we went to was probably at about 70% capacity, perfect in my view. We walked home, about a 40-minute walk, as we passed the restaurant precinct, we noticed that almost all the places were almost empty. I cannot recall ever seeing it like that on a Thursday night. As we got closer to home, we came to another restaurant precinct and the place was buzzing.

What was the difference? Price and service. Those restaurants in the first precinct have had it good for a very long time, and their prices are higher than most, but the service has not kept up.

I think that the Reserve bank's interest hikes are starting to work, and people are minimising their discretionary purchases.

Another interesting thing we saw on the night, a For Rent sign on a residential property. Haven't seen one of those for a quite a while.

 

[JohnDe]

Local paper has a full page add with 9 properties up for auction -
Sale of land for non-payment of rates

(1) If an amount payable by way of rates in respect of land has been in arrears for three years or more, the council may sell the land.

 

[wayneL]

does that mean unemployment rates will rise ( by a noticeable amount )

just asking because the official figures don't reflect the street view i see

Pro tip:

Never believe government stats