The state of the economy at the street level

[moXJO]

Petrol prices should be dampening spending as well. Rba will be treading a lot more carefully

 

[JohnDe]

Some places are doing ok. I've been looking around and found a coastal town which has new construction popping up each week I've been.

Drove here during the school holidays and the place was packed, pubs full.

Came back last night and went for a good walk around, everyone is happy, shops doing ok, but what caught my attention was the increase in construction over the past several weeks.

The thing with trying to assess the economy at street level, is that each street is different, like every suburb, city and town. It is worth taking the time to look further than our own little bubble.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

What most traders don't realise is that the majority of the public do not bother with the share markets.

Wow thanks for bringing this valuable piece of information to our attention, how did you manage to come across this revelation hidden away from other traders?

 

[JohnDe]

Wow thanks for bringing this valuable piece of information to our attention, how did you manage to come across this revelation hidden away from other traders?

Mine was almost as good as your present tidbit of information, thanks for wasting 10 seconds of my life

 

[Dona Ferentes]

people want to socialise
Endeavour Group says that retail sales for the first quarter were down 6.2 per cent to $2.49 billion, while hotel sales for the quarter were up 90.8 per cent to $538 million.

and now the surviving pub and restaurant businesses are faced with staff shortages. I know is been canvassed before, but here's a biit more on the story. I think Uber type operations have cannibalised masstige food places.

Sunday surcharges are becoming more common at restaurants. What are the rules? Where does the money go?​

Lunch, beer and a 20 per cent surcharge? Why more businesses are upping their prices on a Sunday

More businesses are increasing their prices on Sundays to keep up with soaring produce prices and hospitality wages and industry bodies say we should get used to it.

www.abc.net.au

 

[frugal.rock]

Mine was almost as good as your present tidbit of information, thanks for wasting 10 seconds of my life

Yes, but it's more about the aggregate of time wasted. +10 seconds and counting.
Will we ever know the true and real cost?
?

 

[JohnDe]

Yes, but it's more about the aggregate of time wasted. +10 seconds and counting.
Will we ever know the true and real cost?
?

It only counts when labeled and directed at a specific

 

[basilio]

Black Swan events. We've heard of them. We know they happen. Hw seiously do we take precaustions ? Are we just too fed up and stressed out to recognise the signs that indicate potential disasters. ?

Should we have predicted Black Swan events like COVID and the war in Ukraine? Where is the next crisis coming from?​

By Stan Grant
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 8h ago8 hours ago

A Ukrainian serviceman looks out from inside a tank and as the war with Russian rages it's not unthinkable that Vladimir Putin will unleash nuclear weapons.(Reuters)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article

Who predicted the 2008 global financial crash? COVID? The war in Ukraine?

Of course, some did. Hollywood gave us a taste of a global respiratory pandemic in the 2011 film, Contagion.

Some economists saw the unravelling of the financial markets and the ensuing recession long before it happened.

And we should all have seen Vladimir Putin's war coming. He had already annexed Crimea, he massed troops on the border for months and kept warning he would strike.

But even if we should know, we often don't want to know. We certainly don't prepare.

These events are what statistician Nassim Taleb popularised as "Black Swans". Why? Because they are outliers. They have extreme impact. What's more, we are all wiser after the event, concocting explanations that make it all seem so predictable.

Vladimir Putin had warned for months he intended to strike Ukraine yet when he did few were prepared.(Reuters: Russian Defence Ministry)
Another pandemic was always going to happen. We had trial runs with SARS and Swine Flu. How we had erased the history of the so-called "Spanish Flu" pandemic that killed more people than World War I.

Financial crash? Well, Asia's markets collapsed a decade before the GFC.

Let's not forget the Great Depression.
War? When has the world not been at war?

'Black Swan' events are not so rare​

Black Swans are lurking all over the globe — and we can't say we weren't warned

A new list of Black Swan events is lurking everywhere: from war between China and Taiwan, to revolution in Iran, and a global recession. Managing them is a high wire act in which we are a shock away from a fall, writes Stan Grant.

www.abc.net.au

 

[divs4ever]

Wow thanks for bringing this valuable piece of information to our attention, how did you manage to come across this revelation hidden away from other traders?

not hard to hide it from the traders .. they are fixated on market moves and charts ( 'cos that is where their income comes from )

however there are plenty with exposure to the share-market ( often via their super-funds ) , whether they care or not

 

[divs4ever]

Black Swan events. We've heard of them. We know they happen. Hw seiously do we take precaustions ? Are we just too fed up and stressed out to recognise the signs that indicate potential disasters. ?

Should we have predicted Black Swan events like COVID and the war in Ukraine? Where is the next crisis coming from?​

By Stan Grant
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 8h ago8 hours ago
View attachment 148625
A Ukrainian serviceman looks out from inside a tank and as the war with Russian rages it's not unthinkable that Vladimir Putin will unleash nuclear weapons.(Reuters)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article

Who predicted the 2008 global financial crash? COVID? The war in Ukraine?

Of course, some did. Hollywood gave us a taste of a global respiratory pandemic in the 2011 film, Contagion.

Some economists saw the unravelling of the financial markets and the ensuing recession long before it happened.

And we should all have seen Vladimir Putin's war coming. He had already annexed Crimea, he massed troops on the border for months and kept warning he would strike.

But even if we should know, we often don't want to know. We certainly don't prepare.

These events are what statistician Nassim Taleb popularised as "Black Swans". Why? Because they are outliers. They have extreme impact. What's more, we are all wiser after the event, concocting explanations that make it all seem so predictable.
View attachment 148626
Vladimir Putin had warned for months he intended to strike Ukraine yet when he did few were prepared.(Reuters: Russian Defence Ministry)
Another pandemic was always going to happen. We had trial runs with SARS and Swine Flu. How we had erased the history of the so-called "Spanish Flu" pandemic that killed more people than World War I.

Financial crash? Well, Asia's markets collapsed a decade before the GFC.

Let's not forget the Great Depression.
War? When has the world not been at war?

'Black Swan' events are not so rare​

Black Swans are lurking all over the globe — and we can't say we weren't warned

A new list of Black Swan events is lurking everywhere: from war between China and Taiwan, to revolution in Iran, and a global recession. Managing them is a high wire act in which we are a shock away from a fall, writes Stan Grant.

www.abc.net.au

from my semi-novice experience , while black swans are not so rare ( i agree ) they do normally come from an unexpected angle

take for example the virus saga , i was already super-nervous and watchful over the September 2019 'Repo Crisis ' so was mentally prepared ( and preparing for a BIG down )

i had a fair amount of inverse index plays ( the BEAR family ETFs ) was accumulating some other safe havens , i just wasn't prepared for the TRIGGER ( government over-reaction )

 

[mullokintyre]

Black Swan events. We've heard of them. We know they happen. Hw seiously do we take precaustions ? Are we just too fed up and stressed out to recognise the signs that indicate potential disasters. ?

Should we have predicted Black Swan events like COVID and the war in Ukraine? Where is the next crisis coming from?​

By Stan Grant
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 8h ago8 hours ago
View attachment 148625
A Ukrainian serviceman looks out from inside a tank and as the war with Russian rages it's not unthinkable that Vladimir Putin will unleash nuclear weapons.(Reuters)
Help keep family & friends informed by sharing this article

Who predicted the 2008 global financial crash? COVID? The war in Ukraine?

Of course, some did. Hollywood gave us a taste of a global respiratory pandemic in the 2011 film, Contagion.

Some economists saw the unravelling of the financial markets and the ensuing recession long before it happened.

And we should all have seen Vladimir Putin's war coming. He had already annexed Crimea, he massed troops on the border for months and kept warning he would strike.

But even if we should know, we often don't want to know. We certainly don't prepare.

These events are what statistician Nassim Taleb popularised as "Black Swans". Why? Because they are outliers. They have extreme impact. What's more, we are all wiser after the event, concocting explanations that make it all seem so predictable.
View attachment 148626
Vladimir Putin had warned for months he intended to strike Ukraine yet when he did few were prepared.(Reuters: Russian Defence Ministry)
Another pandemic was always going to happen. We had trial runs with SARS and Swine Flu. How we had erased the history of the so-called "Spanish Flu" pandemic that killed more people than World War I.

Financial crash? Well, Asia's markets collapsed a decade before the GFC.

Let's not forget the Great Depression.
War? When has the world not been at war?

'Black Swan' events are not so rare​

Black Swans are lurking all over the globe — and we can't say we weren't warned

A new list of Black Swan events is lurking everywhere: from war between China and Taiwan, to revolution in Iran, and a global recession. Managing them is a high wire act in which we are a shock away from a fall, writes Stan Grant.

www.abc.net.au

Folks often talk about Black swan events, but I would suggest that Stan Grant, along with many others, have never read Nicholas Talebs Book, Black Swan.
Taleb argued that because black swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly.
So the idea of predicting Black Swan events is circuitous logic.
If they are predictable, they are not a Black Swan.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

Folks often talk about Black swan events, but I would suggest that Stan Grant, along with many others, have never read Nicholas Talebs Book, Black Swan.
Taleb argued that because black swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly.
So the idea of predicting Black Swan events is circuitous logic.
If they are predictable, they are not a Black Swan.
Mick

i would suggest in most cases the economy is already nervous and fragile ( say those watching for a housing market crash )

since i try to 'channel-trade' QBE i understand QBE is only a disaster away from the next share-price drop , sooo at least have a 'top-up ' target price mentally prepared ( or as currently a 'low-ball' order sitting in the market already ) .... and just wait for a potential trigger ( and quickly assess if the news is a 'company-killer' or just BAD-news , from which QBE will recover from in a few years

rather than predicting the event , i just try to understand when the market is robust and rightfully confident , or nervous , cautious and living in hope ( and leverage )

 

[wayneL]

Folks often talk about Black swan events, but I would suggest that Stan Grant, along with many others, have never read Nicholas Talebs Book, Black Swan.
Taleb argued that because black swan events are impossible to predict due to their extreme rarity, yet have catastrophic consequences, it is important for people to always assume a black swan event is a possibility, whatever it may be, and to try to plan accordingly.
So the idea of predicting Black Swan events is circuitous logic.
If they are predictable, they are not a Black Swan.
Mick

Eggs Ackley.

Though I do believe the *reaction* to the beer bug was a black swan.

To us anyway (maybe that had it planned all along?)

 

[Smurf1976]

So the idea of predicting Black Swan events is circuitous logic.
If they are predictable, they are not a Black Swan.

For a lot of this stuff the details aren't predictable but the basic concept most certainly is.

Some major institution will blow themselves up financially.

There will be a bear market.

Interest rates will rise and fall.

Some country that exports oil and/or gas will be involved in a war.

There will be droughts and there will be floods.

And so on. The details are often unforeseeable but the basic occurrence as such is almost certain.

 

[moXJO]

Everything was predicted even covid was. It's just there is so many things that could possibly go wrong that it's hard to mass prepare for every situation. You would also keep the general public in a constant fear that would lead to burnout.

 

[qldfrog]

Everything was predicted even covid was. It's just there is so many things that could possibly go wrong that it's hard to mass prepare for every situation. You would also keep the general public in a constant fear that would lead to burnout.

You guys have no clue at the type of fear mongering in France in the last 5y
roughly the Macron (Reset stooge) years :
terrorism first, then covid covid, then Ukraine and power and alongside that: global warning
we are doomed 24/7.
It is cold :CC, it is warm: CC, mosquito: CC.
basically their ABC storyline but wo the indigenous and feminist/leftist BS: only CC and on all medias..left right state
I suspect this will have a profund influence on the psyche of a whole generation and am 100% sure it influences the market there.
Not that i would touch the EU share markets with a pole this year

 

[dyna]

Yeah, today's france 2 tv news claims 3,000 communes have now amped up the taxe d'habitation for the beloved maison secondaires ( All 3 million of 'em ) from 40% to 60% from next year .
Socialism gone mad.
This lunacy all began with Mitterrand , 40 years ago. Blame that B*stard ....and the millions of dimwits that voted for it!

 

[divs4ever]

ahhh , but France has some interesting history , the masses WILL seize power , and not let lords and barons sell therm out ( unpunished )

remember who will the strongest EU economy in the coming winter ( chances are it will not be Hungary )

if France revolts the EU is done ( because Germany is crumbling )

BTW , i am uncomfortable about my current UK exposure as well

 

[moXJO]

Petrol prices should be dampening spending as well. Rba will be treading a lot more carefully

I think today's rate rise was sensible. I'm seeing a lot of consumer weakness now and people are beginning to look for bargains.
Between energy prices, fuel, groceries, interest rates, it's having a real affect on the economy.

I don't think jacking rates will do much from here except blow up the economy.

 

[Smurf1976]

I don't think jacking rates will do much from here except blow up the economy.

Politicians won't say the words until they have to but my own thinking is that blowing up the economy, a recession, is pretty much inevitable.

There's just too many problems and imbalances needing to be fixed.