Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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McCoy Pauley said:
That's the problem with economists. Ask 10 economists for their opinions, and you'll get 11 responses.

To wit, Adam Carr, now the Eureka Report's economist in residence, wrote an article for the Eureka Report earlier this week (IIRC) outlining some interesting reasons why the Greeks can't afford to exit the Euro. Quite an interesting read, but as for who will prove correct over time, only the gods know.
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Very true, but I can only reiterate my earlier point.... IMO of course.

The Oracle of Hawkes Bay :) said:
But I do think that monetary union without fiscal union can never work in the long term.
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Julia said:
One economist/risk analyst I really respect is Satyajit Das.
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+1

I attended a presentation by him a couple of months ago. He gave a very entertaining dissertation (without jargon) that explained why the global economy is in it's current state, and outlined some well considered strategies for addressing the issues. He somehow managed to maintain an "ear to ear" grin whilst explaining just how dire the global economic situation truly is.
 
I reckon we'll see 3800 again on the XAO before August...;)

CanOz
 
CanOz said:
I reckon we'll see 3800 again on the XAO before August...;)

CanOz
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Thinking about it....with the DOW at 12454 there is plenty of scope for a 1000 pt fall or more...and we know what the flow on effects of that will be on our markets.

So even though our market is already near the bottom of the 12 month channel...if the DOW goes under we will certainly follow to new post GFC low...lows.

A proper second dip more than 3 years after the first dip. :eek:
 
So_Cynical said:
Thinking about it....with the DOW at 12454 there is plenty of scope for a 1000 pt fall or more...and we know what the flow on effects of that will be on our markets.

So even though our market is already near the bottom of the 12 month channel...if the DOW goes under we will certainly follow to new post GFC low...lows.

A proper second dip more than 3 years after the first dip. :eek:
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+1 Agree.

And if the economic indicators in the US (at best currently neutral with housing having a good couple of months) turn down, the dive in the DOW will be excruciating.
 
If copper is the bellwether then lookout below.


From the Technical Speculator...


Market Minute: May 25, 2012: Copper and global markets rollover
Following the May 9th Market Minute titled "Downward trend starts", global markets are continuing to rollover. Copper, often referred to as a bellwether indicator on the broader economy, is also declining. The peak in copper prices was in early 2011 and it has dropped steadily over the past year.

The Dow Jones World Stock Index is closely following the trend of the red metal. Global markets have also crested in the first half of 2011.

Copper prices are forming a multi-year reversal pattern. This Head-and-Shoulders formation suggests that the metal will move below $3.25 in Q3 and eventually reach a downside target of $2.25.

Bottom line: Copper prices still need to decline below $3.25 before the reversal pattern is complete. Nevertheless, the probability of lower numbers over the summer is high. Given that metal prices have already dropped over a dollar in the last year, this reflection on the world economy implies slower growth in the months ahead...

http://http://www.technicalspeculator.com/

CanOz
 
CanOz said:
If copper is the bellwether then lookout below.

Copper prices are forming a multi-year reversal pattern.
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ok, i'll see your copper and raise you a 19Billion Euro bailout over the weekend........can't say fairer than that

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18216793
26 May 2012 Last updated at 04:20 GMT

Spain's Bankia to explain call for 19bn-euro bailout
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.........on top of

Two weeks ago, the government intervened and awarded Bankia a 4.47bn-euro loan
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So_Cynical said:
Thinking about it....with the DOW at 12454 there is plenty of scope for a 1000 pt fall or more...and we know what the flow on effects of that will be on our markets.
So even though our market is already near the bottom of the 12 month channel...if the DOW goes under we will certainly follow to new post GFC low...lows.
A proper second dip more than 3 years after the first dip. :eek:
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Indeed. If 12,000 doesn't hold, then all bets are off. Very easily test 11,000 from there.
 
young-gun said:
I'd be folding... wonder how many investors/traders are gonna be taking their bat and ball next week.
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just a feeling but I believe from Tuesday onwards, we will see a carnage, last chance to get out tomorrow before the US set the tone
Cash and gold IMHO
 
young-gun said:
I'd be folding... wonder how many investors/traders are gonna be taking their bat and ball next week.
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I'd say the smart money is already out, hence the almost 10% drop in May.
We won't see any more carnage until the not-so-smart money starts getting out.

I'm guessing slow falls over the next couple of weeks until the penny drops and then there will be panic.
 
Struzball said:
I'd say the smart money is already out, hence the almost 10% drop in May.
We won't see any more carnage until the not-so-smart money starts getting out.

I'm guessing slow falls over the next couple of weeks until the penny drops and then there will be panic.
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I still haven't worked out whether it is the smart money getting out or the smart money that is buying in from those getting out?
 
MrBurns said:
Step back and look at the big picture, there's no good news on the horizon only dark clouds.
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People have been sprooking that for the last three years. The xao has recovered from 3200 to 5000, dived back to 3800 recovered to 4600 and recently dropped just under 4100. I've been in (and out) the whole time.
The volitility of the last three years has been more rewarding than the previous six. I say "Bring it on". :)
 
Yeah but it gapped like 20 points or something weird? Didn't do the usual tranche open.

Is it option expiry or some other trading related occurence I'm not aware of?
 
kid hustlr said:
Yeah but it gapped like 20 points or something weird? Didn't do the usual tranche open.

Is it option expiry or some other trading related occurence I'm not aware of?
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US public holiday overnight so the ASX24 futures finished early... so the gap open to catch up with what happened in Europe after SPI closed.
 
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