Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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Is comparing the Dow 30 with ASX200 really valid?

ASX200 is approx equal in market cap to the S&P 400 (US MidCap Index), and they performed better priced in USD from 2009 lows with lower volatility and therefore higher Sharpe ratio.

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sinner said:
Is comparing the Dow 30 with ASX200 really valid?
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I think so.

sinner said:
ASX200 is approx equal in market cap to the S&P 400 (US MidCap Index), and they performed better priced in USD from 2009 lows with lower volatility and therefore higher Sharpe ratio.
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What would probably be fairest would be ASX 20 vs Dow 30 adjusted to AU$ appreciation and which ever way you cut it - it's a rally since November.

Any way I'm not really worried because I took all my money out of my bank accounts today.:D
 
I will be surprised if the market doesn't bounce in a similar manner that it did last year when the Greek bailout issues caused a minor correction.
 
nulla nulla said:
I will be surprised if the market doesn't bounce in a similar manner that it did last year when the Greek bailout issues caused a minor correction.
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I'm just hoping for a decent pull-back and a bit of pocket money out of a couple of gold mining stocks while I wait.
 
We've had a about a 30% rally in the states and no swoon to speak of for about 9 months.
Yesterday every man and his dog was bullish on this market on the air ways.
We have also had Carl Icahn and Warren Buffet calling the market over and fully valued.

One of the scary things Ben did, was give a pretty heavy blow to confidence whilst maintaining the support.
So we go into the debt ceiling debate just after catching our breath from a punch in the guts from Ben.
One or two commentators are saying there will be a paralyzing stand off.

China's property prices are still going through the roof as has oil whilst they claim no rise to inflation.
Almost sounds like they want to stimulate to keep the bubble growing cause there is nothing else to do but collapse now.

German elections are on the weekend which will give the new birth to a new period of reality checking, rather than so much rosy picture painting for the Eurozone.

Just some thoughts for a lazy Friday afternoon.
 
I don't have a chart however I believe the ASX 200 has out performed by around 6.5% since then.
Yet the au$ has lost around 12% against the US$.
So I'd say we are about even.

You can usually rely on the machines to keep it about right!!
 
Every now and then a reality check is a good idea.

[video]http://www.cnbc.com/id/101230045[/video]

Below is a five year monthly ETF for the Russell 2000

Russel 2000 ETf IWM.JPG
 
I think there's a real warning there, quantitative easing might end at any moment and with it our profits if we're still in the market.
 
MrBurns said:
I think there's a real warning there, quantitative easing might end at any moment and with it our profits if we're still in the market.
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You have to remember that the market is forward looking. Everybody is expecting a fall when the Fed final starts to wind down. When the masses expect the market to react in a certain way it will almost always do the opposite.
 
Porper said:
You have to remember that the market is forward looking. Everybody is expecting a fall when the Fed final starts to wind down. When the masses expect the market to react in a certain way it will almost always do the opposite.
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Yes it's factoring itself in now with the present falls, not sure how low it will go when the US cuts back on the easing though. I'm still there for the moment but watching closely.
 
MrBurns said:
So the big question is do you gamble and stay in or play it safe and run.............I'm still in profit so I might get out for now.

I hate all this, I'd just like to buy shares and forget about them.
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Burns you could do a few things other than just responding to uncertainty.

You could pick a point if it falls to some price where you would be unwilling to lose any more profit and sell out. (stop loss)

You could sell half or a smaller percentage to relive the pressure of uncertainty and lock in some profit and let the rest ride also with a point where you sell out the remaining if it falls and gives back too much. I always like this way cuz there is nothing more frustrating in watching something take off after you jump off.
 
Porper said:
You have to remember that the market is forward looking. Everybody is expecting a fall when the Fed final starts to wind down. When the masses expect the market to react in a certain way it will almost always do the opposite.
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I've been thinking the same thing, I just don't see how it's going to be possible for everyone to Short and make money. Maybe the business Insider article shows that the shorting is already being done and then when the announcement of the taper finally happens we get the old buy the rumour sell the fact. That seems too obvious as well though.

I love this saying:

“Money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.” Can't remember who it's from, maybe Soros
 
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