Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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LifeChoices said:
Oh crap.

I thought I was getting quite good at catching knives. I bought some BHP yesterday. I thought I was clever, told everyone at work to sell their worldy possessions, family, dogs and buy.

When is this dead cat bounce coming.

I hope I don't have to pull my kids out of their private schools.
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A couple of good days on the ASX!!

Phew, what a relief - it's amazing how this turns up the mood.

But this thread is here for a reason. And it's important that one's mood doesn't run with the crowd.

I'll bet Mr/Ms LifeChoices is feeling better than when she/he made the above post.

So is anyone treating this as a dead cat bounce and selling out, going to cash and sitting on the sidelines to await a 25%-40% discount before getting back in?

Grateful anyone's thoughts who can persuade me to swim against the tide and do just that...
 
Stumpy, maybe ask yourself why the rally today?
What has actually changed?
 
Julia said:
Stumpy, maybe ask yourself why the rally today?
What has actually changed?
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I did try to 'drill down' into that half way through the day. Wall Street did well because apparently the pro-austerity party in Greece is getting a 'bounce' in the polls, reportedly because the Greek electorate is realising that the Left (anti-austerity) is making soothing promises that will ultimately lead to disaster. That sounds pretty familiar.

But that's the whole point, I suppose. Even if the Left lose out, this is all just kicking the can down the road. We've been in 'kick can down the road' for almost 4 years now...

When, just when does one pull the plug??
 
Julia has a good point.
Why the rally?
Given the global economy we have as such now, it can take good or bad news from anywhere to make a significant impact.

Australian markets seem to correlate with whatever the American markets do. (Not always) and my point i was going to make was to highlight how irrational they can be.
Ie just last week, positive US data, good earnings etc indicating a slow but improving economy, yet because of Greece it got slammed.

This is also why I cant understand how Technical Analysts can have such conviction in their charting.
 
I think it's just a dead cat bounce, it's still trending down TLS for instance is way below what it was a week ago, only bad news can come out of Europe even if the pro austerity supporters win the election, this is a slow decline with the odd ounce.
 
zac said:
This is also why I cant understand how Technical Analysts can have such conviction in their charting.
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Maybe it's because the bulk of the trading population out there are reading tea leaves (er.. folowing the same charts). So it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy when something reaches a fibonacci level or something.

I've asked an Elliott Wave theorist to come out from under their rock on another thread but so far haven't heard anything.

Maybe they're digging into their archives to find a theory to explain what just happened...

I might re-start that theory with something from left field just to jerk them into saying something.
 
Yeah I agree with that, ie the bad news scenario.
Unless the ECB comes out and says its printing more money and doing a bail out, I cant see how anything else will be good for the markets.
 
zac said:
Julia has a good point.
Why the rally?
Given the global economy we have as such now, it can take good or bad news from anywhere to make a significant impact.

Australian markets seem to correlate with whatever the American markets do. (Not always) and my point i was going to make was to highlight how irrational they can be.
Ie just last week, positive US data, good earnings etc indicating a slow but improving economy, yet because of Greece it got slammed.

This is also why I cant understand how Technical Analysts can have such conviction in their charting.
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When are people going to realize that the talking heads :karaoke: wrap the news around what is happening in the markets....not the other way around:shake:. Why are we having a rally? Because the sellers dried up and buyers stepped in to cover shorts quickly and take positions to unload after this bounce is over:banghead:.

You lot are worse than Bloomberg...one minute Bloomberg is saying markets are falling because of Greece default fears, then we have a small 30 minute rally and they say we're up because of Greece bailout hopes....Unbelievable!!!:banghead:

The market moves because of what is going on inside the market. Whatever news you may hear, 90% is already known and priced in or being priced in. Big shifts in sentiment caused by the interpretation of macro data can shift the balance, but little rumors don't. Do you wonder why the media has gone hush on Greece...the market is bouncing and they've got F'all to talk about!! Watch...when we finally drop like a rock again in a few days, they'll be all over the Greece thing again.

If you don't believe me, and can't read a chart, spend 12 months in front of a bloody screen and observe the auction process....and tell me otherwise. :rolleyes:

CanOz
 
CanOz, nice rant, yet yesterday I went long in a few issues because of the behavior of the market, it reached some buy points.
If the news is telling you to sell for a million reasons, yet prices stabilise and go up, go with the market not the news.

My expectation of my long positions is only short term, yet I will let my system tell me when I am wrong, or take outsized profits should they eventuate.
When Goldman says sell, they already have, in a week or two they may say buy. The news tends to follow what the big boys say, not what the market does.
 
CanOz said:
When are people going to realize that the talking heads :karaoke: wrap the news around what is happening in the markets....not the other way around:shake:. Why are we having a rally? Because the sellers dried up and buyers stepped in to cover shorts quickly and take positions to unload after this bounce is over:banghead:.
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I should have used to word reports instead of News.
Media only report on what has happened not what is going to happen even though they like to think they are in the know future wise.

For example today Japans credit rating got down graded and the Yen weakend immediately as a result.

Id love to learn the art but I just cant figure out how T/A can be so reliable given reports often change the outcome of daily markets.
 
zac said:
For example today Japans credit rating got down graded and the Yen weakend immediately as a result.
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So did the ES, the DAX etc...but they absorbed all that selling like it wasn't there and rallied more....

CanOz
 
StumpyPhantom said:
Maybe it's because the bulk of the trading population out there are reading tea leaves (er.. folowing the same charts). So it's a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy when something reaches a fibonacci level or something.

I've asked an Elliott Wave theorist to come out from under their rock on another thread but so far haven't heard anything.

Maybe they're digging into their archives to find a theory to explain what just happened...

I might re-start that theory with something from left field just to jerk them into saying something.
Click to expand...

Stumpy......how about you first put up a robust , none-subjective, regime for trading and we'll give it the eye over.....maybe you could also road-test it in front of us, that is, forward test it......then, maybe, you can walk with heavy feet and brandish a large knowledge stick and it us over the head with it.......

you could lead the way and inspire everyone

looking forward to your work

thanks in advance
 
It appears that a news report was released after the close of the FTSE & DAX but shortly before the close of the DOW where-in it is reported that the former Greek President has advised that Greece is preparing to leave the Euro.

Subsequent to the release of the report, the DOW went from 75 points up to 1 point down at close.

Will our market react to this report in a similar fashion as the DOW or will we treat the information as "already factored in"?
 
nulla nulla said:
It appears that a news report was released after the close of the FTSE & DAX but shortly before the close
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The Greek announcement of seriously considering leaving the Euro is just a political stunt to freak the Greeks (and Germans who would have to take on a trillion dollar hair cut), if Greece leaves, so that will help voting for Euroland rather than against austerity for the Greeks, and convince Germans to accept the other timely announcement:rolleyes: - being -
The ECB talks about a Eurobond for the first time as if it is on the cards!!;)
This is actually the signal for the big buy.
It's over!!!!!!!!
Markets may take a bit of time before they get it!!
China is still an issue with Euro contraction and falling against the US$ - Euro buying power reduced.
 
XAO at 4129.8 (minus 43.7) at 1:00pm. Was 4119.5 (down 53.6) earlier. SYD looked like a buy opportunity at $2.81 IMO, could prove wrong.
 
notting said:
The Greek announcement of seriously considering leaving the Euro is just a political stunt to freak the Greeks (and Germans who would have to take on a trillion dollar hair cut), if Greece leaves, so that will help voting for Euroland rather than against austerity for the Greeks, and convince Germans to accept the other timely announcement:rolleyes: - being -
The ECB talks about a Eurobond for the first time as if it is on the cards!!;)
This is actually the signal for the big buy.
It's over!!!!!!!!
Markets may take a bit of time before they get it!!
China is still an issue with Euro contraction and falling against the US$ - Euro buying power reduced.
Click to expand...

Eurobonds without a binding fiscal and political union?? Cant see how that could end well
 
notting said:
The Greek announcement of seriously considering leaving the Euro is just a political stunt to freak the Greeks (and Germans who would have to take on a trillion dollar hair cut), if Greece leaves, so that will help voting for Euroland rather than against austerity for the Greeks, and convince Germans to accept the other timely announcement:rolleyes: - being -
The ECB talks about a Eurobond for the first time as if it is on the cards!!;)
This is actually the signal for the .
Click to expand...


What is the deal with these Eurobonds? I'm assuming all countries in the euro go in together to obviously form one bond that can be traded? This would lower the yields expected of struggling indebted nations, but wouldn't it raise yields for countries like germany as there would still be a greater risk associated with them(the Eurobond)?
 
young-gun said:
What is the deal with these Eurobonds? I'm assuming all countries in the euro go in together to obviously form one bond that can be traded? This would lower the yields expected of struggling indebted nations, but wouldn't it raise yields for countries like germany as there would still be a greater risk associated with them(the Eurobond)?
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Pretty much. I cant see Germany ever agreeing to them, without control over what the poorer countries do with their budgets. And we have all seen what happens when Germany has tried to exert some control over Greeces budget.
 
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