Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

Jump to new
stacks said:
Pretty much. I cant see Germany ever agreeing to them, without control over what the poorer countries do with their budgets. And we have all seen what happens when Germany has tried to exert some control over Greeces budget.
Click to expand...

sounds like a pretty poor deal for some. as you say, why would anyone(not just germany) agree to such a proposal if it were to affect them in a negative way. I guess the only reason to agree to such an idea would come down to how badly you want to save the euro. even if it were to go ahead(which it wont) i can't see this fixing the problem, it would simply spread the issue right across the eurozone. would be funny to see yields hit 7% on euro-bonds, then what?

any stock that seems like a bargain today, will undoubtedly become a super mega bargain in the coming months:)

that is if C/Bankers stay out, any predictions as to how far away the printing presses are? im giving it 2 months max.
 
One economist/risk analyst I really respect is Satyajit Das.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/
Here he is discussing the ponzi scheme that has to come to an end.

It's quite long, almost an hour, but absolutely worth a listen imo.

Have we spent too much for too long ? Are the clever financial instruments that were supposed to prop up the system starting to buckle? According to economist Satyajit Das we're in a botox economy where things have been desperately covered up to conceal the truth. Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy, he says, are just the front carriages in an impending financial train wreck. Also on board, he believes, are all the world’s major economies. It’s a pessimistic and sobering perspective on the consequences of too much debt.
Click to expand...
 
Julia said:
One economist/risk analyst I really respect is Satyajit Das.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/
Here he is discussing the ponzi scheme that has to come to an end.

It's quite long, almost an hour, but absolutely worth a listen imo.
Click to expand...

He's one of my favs too Julia, i heard him on the Bloomy one day and bought his book, "Extreme Money and the Cult of Risk". He's actually quite funny too.

CanOz
 
young-gun said:
Then what?
any stock that seems like a bargain today, will undoubtedly become a super mega bargain in the coming months:)
Click to expand...
Yeah, still one hell of sell off is shaping up. However, the Then what is an important question that everyone kind of shrugs their sholders and looks at the ceiling to. The Euro can fail and go back to individual printing presses and the US will probably need to print to limit the deflationary damage, to do the same. Or the Europeans craft a long term plan to save the Eurozone and try to merge fiscal policy slowly and torcherously and crawl toward the Eurobond after the Project Bond or what ever else they invent runs it's course, and print that and the US will probably print to limit deflationary damage.
It's not that hard. Just takes a bit of time, things will just get more expensive over the longer term which will be good for things other than cash.
 
Julia said:
One economist/risk analyst I really respect is Satyajit Das.

http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/bigideas/
Here he is discussing the ponzi scheme that has to come to an end.

It's quite long, almost an hour, but absolutely worth a listen imo.

Have we spent too much for too long ? Are the clever financial instruments that were supposed to prop up the system starting to buckle?
Click to expand...

Definitely. But as has been proven time and time again, there are people with lots of power who see deflation as the ultimate failure and will do (or be persuaded to do) anything to prevent it.

If left up to politicians/bankers theres no doubt they could easily plan 'a sustainable way forward'. (which will blow up again next year and the year after that, and the year after that....etc) But sometimes the people in charge dont seem to remember that they still live in a democratic society, where the people DO have a say.
 
notting said:
Yeah, still one hell of sell off is shaping up. However, the Then what is an important question that everyone kind of shrugs their sholders and looks at the ceiling to. The Euro can fail and go back to individual printing presses and the US will probably need to print to limit the deflationary damage, to do the same. Or the Europeans craft a long term plan to save the Eurozone and try to merge fiscal policy slowly and torcherously and crawl toward the Eurobond after the Project Bond or what ever else they invent runs it's course, and print that and the US will probably print to limit deflationary damage.
It's not that hard. Just takes a bit of time, things will just get more expensive over the longer term which will be good for things other than cash.
Click to expand...

So you think inflation will be the big problem that investors should be concerned with?

To be fair, are you talking next month, next year, or next decade?
 
notting said:
What did we see? A Mexican stand off?
Click to expand...
ahhhh, no.

The people spoke up, they dont like being dictated to by Germany, their requests for austerity were too much. They spoke up the only real way they could, that would be listened to, they voted.
 
All you have to do is put your self in the other parties shoes .....


Lets say all our Chickens came home to Roost and Australia was overwhelmed by debt and the Germans were appointed our Austerity Sugar Daddy's - would we tolerate that after all we have been through even in some peoples living memory ....

Me thinks not :D

You would tell them to take their debt and shovel it up their Snauzer's :) - more the fool them for lending it in the first place !
 
stacks said:
ahhhh, no.

The people spoke up, they dont like being dictated to by Germany, their requests for austerity were too much. They spoke up the only real way they could, that would be listened to, they voted.
Click to expand...

I bet most of these people are the same ones that have been jumping up an down for the past 30 years demanding money be spent on better roads, better schools, better health, better transport and so on. Probably the same people that have been dodging taxes in some way for the past 30 years.

The large majority deserve what they are getting. Governments only spend to please and support the people. Can't have your cake n eat it too! Nations living on debt = this will end up happening. Germany has every right to dictate the terms.
 
stacks said:
ahhhh, no.
they voted.
Click to expand...

For nothing!

The polls are now reading that austerity will win in the second round of voting!

What has actually happened is that the public are starting to understand that it is better than going back out of the Eurozone, especially with increased runs on banks etc.
The politicians are finding it harder to fool them with fairy dust and bribes to take power.

The Europeans are also looking like softening the austerity approach. Euro looks safe for today!
 
notting said:
For nothing!

The polls are now reading that austerity will win in the second round of voting!

What has actually happened is that the public are starting to understand that it is better than going back out of the Eurozone, especially with increased runs on banks etc.
The politicians are finding it harder to fool them with fairy dust and bribes to take power.

The Europeans are also looking like softening the austerity approach. Euro looks safe for today!
Click to expand...

This is how I see it too. Greeks want to stay in the euro but they don't want to have to pay back the money they owe. In time gone past all they had to do was protest and complain and the Greek government would back down, hence we are the situation we are in; they're not used to tough decisions being made.

You can't always get what you want
But if you try sometimes well you might find
You get what you need
Click to expand...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZOlL6pPq4E

And just because I'm in a 70's music mood, Frau Merkel's first name is Layla and Derek and the Dominos are the Greeks...:D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Th3ycKQV_4k

Completely OT but the coda at the end of that song is brilliant.
 
I would bet any amount of money there will be no eurobonds. The whole concept is just bizarre, Germans would revolt in their streets.

Personally though, I have no idea what will happen. Greeks don't want out of the euro - and if I am not mistaken, there is no scope in the treaty for anyone to be kicked out of the euro, and yet I cannot understand how Greece will continue to function in the euro.

Fun times.
 
Starcraftmazter said:
Personally though, I have no idea what will happen. Greeks don't want out of the euro - and if I am not mistaken, there is no scope in the treaty for anyone to be kicked out of the euro, and yet I cannot understand how Greece will continue to function in the euro.
Click to expand...

They want to stay because then their problems are everyone else's. If they go outside they will have huge inflation problems over night and they have no industry or exports to trade their way out. For them its better to stay and get Germany to help them. :cool:
 
Trembling Hand said:
They want to stay because then their problems are everyone else's. If they go outside they will have huge inflation problems over night and they have no industry or exports to trade their way out. For them its better to stay and get Germany to help them. :cool:
Click to expand...

To be fair though - and bailouts aside, it's clearly more advantageous for Greece (and Greeks realise this) to fix it's problems now than continue with the corruption and public waste and an uncompetitive economy.

Regardless how much a country exports, currency devaluation is not a good way to go to gain competitiveness.
 
According to an economist on the radio yesterday, it will be bad for Greece no matter what they do. But he thinks exiting the Euro will ultimately have advantages for Greece, but staying in will mean taking all the pain with none of the advantages.

Curiously, 77% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro, which goes to TH's point.

As for me, I'm just in popcorn eating mode... wouldn't have a clue. But I do think that monetary union without fiscal union can never work in the long term.
 
wayneL said:
According to an economist on the radio yesterday, it will be bad for Greece no matter what they do. But he thinks exiting the Euro will ultimately have advantages for Greece, but staying in will mean taking all the pain with none of the advantages.

Curiously, 77% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro, which goes to TH's point.

As for me, I'm just in popcorn eating mode... wouldn't have a clue. But I do think that monetary union without fiscal union can never work in the long term.
Click to expand...

If the Greek Parliament hangs again on 17 June, they're just going to send the NATO troops in aren't they?:banghead:
 
If Greece leaves the Euro and floats their own currency...would this just effectively hand control of a new currency to their government again? Meaning they could revert back to old habits of excessive government spending, potentially resulting in serious inflationary issues and devastating currency devaluation. Wouldn't be pretty.
 
Oh the historical irony!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I_reparations
World War I reparations were the payments and transfers of property and equipment that Germany was forced to make under the Treaty of Versailles (1919) following its defeat during World War I. ...

...Consequently their only way of paying back the debt was in devalued Gold Marks which ultimately led to the hyperinflation; ...

...Payments ceased when Adolf Hitler's National Socialist German Workers' Party took power in 1933, with about one-eighth of the initial reparations paid.[1] ...

....The final payments were made on 4 October 2010 the twentieth anniversary of German reunification.[1][2]
Click to expand...
 
wayneL said:
According to an economist on the radio yesterday, it will be bad for Greece no matter what they do. But he thinks exiting the Euro will ultimately have advantages for Greece, but staying in will mean taking all the pain with none of the advantages.

Curiously, 77% of Greeks want to stay in the Euro, which goes to TH's point.

As for me, I'm just in popcorn eating mode... wouldn't have a clue. But I do think that monetary union without fiscal union can never work in the long term.
Click to expand...

That's the problem with economists. Ask 10 economists for their opinions, and you'll get 11 responses.

To wit, Adam Carr, now the Eureka Report's economist in residence, wrote an article for the Eureka Report earlier this week (IIRC) outlining some interesting reasons why the Greeks can't afford to exit the Euro. Quite an interesting read, but as for who will prove correct over time, only the gods know.
 
Top