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The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread

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The markets are priceing in QE3 personally I don't think it's going to happen, though now I qualify it with, yet!
 
What seems most relevent at this point is the fact that the price of oil has taken such a tumble and is still looking weak. This seemed to me to be the intent of the Fed earlier this year. So underlying the talks of stimulus is this fact which, I personally think, is the best best and fairest kind of stimulus for the world economy and have no doubt that Ben is quietly very happy about this.
It is 'the stimulus' and there really is no need for anything els.
If there is more stimulus now, that would just drive oil higher which would act as a global hedge against it's own premis!
The best move for global stimulus, right now, is to make sure markets are bearish enough to keep oil, the best stimulus, down!
Stimulating.
 
notting said:
What seems most relevent at this point is the fact that the price of oil has taken such a tumble and is still looking weak. This seemed to me to be the intent of the Fed earlier this year. So underlying the talks of stimulus is this fact which, I personally think, is the best best and fairest kind of stimulus for the world economy and have no doubt that Ben is quietly very happy about this.
It is 'the stimulus' and there really is no need for anything els.
If there is more stimulus now, that would just drive oil higher which would act as a global hedge against it's own premis!
The best move for global stimulus, right now, is to make sure markets are bearish enough to keep oil, the best stimulus, down!
Stimulating.
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I agree Notting, oil being the barometer for energy costs. Energy costs a huge roll in the cost structure, being no.2 if not number one in the majority of manufacturing processes nowadays. I heard on the Bloomy last week that the had just begun unwinding their longs, and i was stunned. If you look at the COT chart though, i can't see a ton a downside left, and there is support where we are now in crude, sorry no chart on this PC.

Crude and the equity markets are very correlated, so we need that big capitulation in the equities....in the next few weeks i reckon...then a test of the lows on low season again....:2twocents

BTW: the commercials are the ones that actually move the market, and they are unwinding their shorts pretty quickly...

Cheers,


CanOz
 

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Alan Hull is projecting that the U.S. Presidential elections will likely start the next global bear market.
 
The official "ASX is tanking!" panic thread
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It's not tanking now and those that bought when it was are doing quite well right now.

Tomorrow it's Australia Day, big parties all around. What a great 12 Months it's been.:D
 
Yeah remember all the panicking that was going on just 4 and 5 months ago...doom doom gloom gloom. :D

There were guys in the CKF thread (Kentucky fried chicken) that were actually arguing that fried chicken was a bad business to be in...that 100 KFC stores could not make a decent profit!!! :rolleyes: madness.
 
Bill M said:
These guys are all desperately waiting for pull backs now.:eek::eek:
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Nah, most of em cant pull the trigger in the face of fear, they're waiting for a trend to emerge or for the 100 day MA or some over signal that the heard is moving again..waiting for something.
 
So_Cynical said:
Yeah remember all the panicking that was going on just 4 and 5 months ago...doom doom gloom gloom. :D
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I'm still a bear. In my view, nothing about the macro environment has improved. What has changed though is the lack of media attention on the troubled Euro zone.
 
So_Cynical said:
Nah, most of em cant pull the trigger in the face of fear, they're waiting for a trend to emerge or for the 100 day MA or some over signal that the heard is moving again..waiting for something.
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Or what about those people who were stuck in losing trades in a volatile sideways market while dividend yields in blue-chip stocks were screaming "buy". People on this forum were warning that CBA was a risky investment even six months or so ago (all stocks are risky - so I'm not saying it isn't).

As for waiting and fear - never be afraid that you missed the boat. There will be another one.

It's starting to smell a bit like exuberance around here. I'm hoping it will last through the first quarter of this calendar year.
 
tinhat said:
O

As for waiting and fear - never be afraid that you missed the boat. There will be another one.
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Some boats leave the dock never to return, like the sex you knocked back, never to return...once only opportunity.

Not all opportunities are the same...fortune favours the brave.
 
I would tend to agree - the global financial climate has never been better.

For example, the EU has solved all their debt problems, Japan has just announced that they will be prosperous once more (for proof just look at the Nikkei) and the US has finally realised that debt doesn't really matter, it's just a footnote on the national ledger.

For all those that missed out - don't worry, there will be plenty more 'once in a lifetime' opportunities.:D
 
The most hated, insane, counter reality rally since begginingless time, that morphed into the prophecies of the great rotation, where there is still value and alot of money on the side lines, is doing wobble no.3 by the look of it.

Now nearly everyone is saying "Oh it want be a deep dip, use today as the buying opportunity you have been waiting for since hhmmmm November?"
 
notting said:
The most hated, insane, counter reality rally since begginingless time, that morphed into the prophecies of the great rotation, where there is still value and alot of money on the side lines, is doing wobble no.3 by the look of it.

Now nearly everyone is saying "Oh it want be a deep dip, use today as the buying opportunity you have been waiting for since hhmmmm November?"
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How's that rally working? S&P 500 priced in AUD...

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