The Middle East and Western Asia: Bit of a hot spot?

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

I mentioned that this morning in the oil thread. The rumour at the time was some sort of hostilities had begun. It said that only a few contracts were bought at the top. Obviously a nervous market at the moment.

Why, what are you thinking here?

Cheers,

Just that looking at the price action here, it seems to be nothing more than rumour or a false alarm...

...at present.

The situation would appear to be a tinderbox however.

 

[Kauri]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

From action FX...

U.S. crude oil futures spike $5.18 to $68.09 a barrel after-hours on rumors of increased hostilities between Iran and Britain. This can mean serious problems to global economies, because if things continue to get nasty between the UK and Iran it is mostly obvious that the US is going to intervene also. And this can revive the jitters of a new terrorist attack in US soil meaning a large capital flow from the US to other countries and currencies such as Switzerland, the Swiss Franc and gold. A rally in gold prices in nearly a fact right now, the only question here will be, can gold hold onto its gains?, if it does, well we are in the presence of the new savings instruments by excellence and people, traders and banks may dive into the market to buy gold, fuelling the rally even more, pushing gold prices to records highs. And I don't want to even imagine what will happen if a war is developed between Iran, the UK and the USA. Also a big problem will revive if oil prices continue to rise; this is the trade balance of the US. We already have an unsustainable trade balance but if oil prices continue to go in the rise, things can get out of hands. Traders are not paying the attention they need to regarding to the trade balance, mainly because now they are focused only in interest rates, but when things may be on the verge of going out of control they will do something. We all know that the best way to correct the trade deficit is to devaluate their currency and the US dollar needs to go down approximately 20% from here to start to narrow the trade balance to satisfactory levels, you do the math.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

As in the school yard...PUSH comes to SHOVE.

Does this not prove that age DOES NOT bring wisdom...most thickheads are thick all their lives.

 

[Bobby]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Wow,

It seems that some don't see Iran in a bad light on their kidnapping.

Why is that ?

Bob.

 

[robert toms]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Why is that....the average punter,like myself,does not know the facts and motivations of what happened.
Anything that PM Blair says has to be regarded with scepticism after his performance trying to sell WMD's
Bush threatened any Iranian found in Iraq with dire consequences...pretty rich when foreign troops roam at will.
The Americans are holding Iranians in Iraq at the moment...without trial etc.
Are we to be manipulated by media reports ?
One thing that I do know is that we are all judged by our past actions and performances....the same judgements do not seem to be made in situations like this.
I do not know what happened,or what games are being played...so why get concerned ?

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

I'm stocking up on food.

Israeli News Service:

Likud members: Bomb Iran

Report: U.S. planning Iran strike

 

[BradK]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

This from the respected journalist Sey Hersh (who broke the My Lai massacre in Vietnam, and the Abu Gharib prison scandal in Iraq). He is not often wrong, and for an up to date account, check out this link below from the March 2007 issue of New Yorker magazine. Its a long read but well worth it.

Hmmmm

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh

Cheers
Brad

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

I'm stocking up on food.

Israeli News Service:

Likud members: Bomb Iran

Report: U.S. planning Iran strike

Looks like more than sabre rattling now doesn't it. The worst step would be Israel getting involved in this. It would bring in the rest of the Middle East, and possibly even unite the Sunni and Shiites to fight against the common enemy. Seems unlikely to me but a possibility. Perhaps it could just remain a US/Israel/NATO? v Shiite conflict. Whatever the case, if Israel get involved, disaster.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Looks like more than sabre rattling now doesn't it. The worst step would be Israel getting involved in this. It would bring in the rest of the Middle East, and possibly even unite the Sunni and Shiites to fight against the common enemy. Seems unlikely to me but a possibility. Perhaps it could just remain a US/Israel/NATO? v Shiite conflict. Whatever the case, if Israel get involved, disaster.

Something is up.

There was a rumour floating around about an April 6 strike (which makes it highly unlikely, but I wonder)

My nightmare scenario: A "terrorist" attack in USA or UK, immediate counter attack against Iran (though they will have nothing to do with it) and martial law installed in those countries... possibly Australia too.

I hope I'm waaaaay off.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

This from the respected journalist Sey Hersh . Hmmmm
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2007/03/05/070305fa_fact_hersh Cheers, Brad

intersting stuff thanks BradK, wayne, kennas
sheesh didnt read the lot, but .. confusion reigns supreme.
Khamenei, now there's a voice from the past.
As I recall Bush is a good mate of the Saudis, so that at least seems to be consistent (and probably a polarising influence / rallying cry for Khamenei followers). But .. so much for the much touted diplomatic option in Iran. It was never a goer, was it. Bush probably knew that when he implied "we'll try the carrot, but if that doesn't work, we still have plenty of sticks")

To undermine Iran, which is predominantly Shiite, the Bush Administration has decided, in effect, to reconfigure its priorities in the Middle East. In Lebanon, the Administration has coöperated with Saudi Arabia’s government, which is Sunni, in clandestine operations that are intended to weaken Hezbollah, the Shiite organization that is backed by Iran. The U.S. has also taken part in clandestine operations aimed at Iran and its ally Syria. A by-product of these activities has been the bolstering of Sunni extremist groups that espouse a militant vision of Islam and are hostile to America and sympathetic to Al Qaeda.

One contradictory aspect of the new strategy is that, in Iraq, most of the insurgent violence directed at the American military has come from Sunni forces, and not from Shiites. But, from the Administration’s perspective, the most profound—and unintended—strategic consequence of the Iraq war is the empowerment of Iran. Its President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has made defiant pronouncements about the destruction of Israel and his country’s right to pursue its nuclear program, and last week its supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said on state television that “realities in the region show that the arrogant front, headed by the U.S. and its allies, will be the principal loser in the region.” ........

“It seems there has been a debate inside the government over what’s the biggest danger—Iran or Sunni radicals,” Vali Nasr, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, who has written widely on Shiites, Iran, and Iraq, told me. “The Saudis and some in the Administration have been arguing that the biggest threat is Iran and the Sunni radicals are the lesser enemies. This is a victory for the Saudi line.”

Martin Indyk, a senior State Department official in the Clinton Administration who also served as Ambassador to Israel, said that “the Middle East is heading into a serious Sunni-Shiite Cold War.” Indyk, who is the director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution, added that, in his opinion, it was not clear whether the White House was fully aware of the strategic implications of its new policy. “The White House is not just doubling the bet in Iraq,” he said. “It’s doubling the bet across the region. This could get very complicated. Everything is upside down.”

PS If USA takes on Iran, they won't have any friends amongst the (non-terrorist) Iraqi Shiites either - and the terrorist Sunnis there win - like, they won't have any friends in that region period. (you wouldn't think). What was that someone said ? - home before Xmas ?. which Xmas?

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Paper Tiger (UN) statement out:

"Members of the Security Council expressed grave concern at the capture by the Revolutionary Guard and the continuing detention by the government of Iran of 15 United Kingdom naval personnel and appealed to the government of Iran to allow consular access in terms of the relevant international laws," the statement said.

"Members of the Security Council support calls including by the secretary-general in his March 29 meeting with the Iranian foreign minister for an early resolution of this problem including the release of the 15 U.K. personnel," it said.

 

[happytown]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Paper Tiger (UN) statement out

Kennas,

arguably useful as a componont of the historical record leading up to any action showing global (?) disapproval of Iran and her behaviour (although it is only the security council with 15 member states, including several smaller countries susceptible to sway ... if their vote is needed - or needed to be gained (report recently showed how when african states served on the council, for 2 year periods, the foreign aid they received per year during that 2 year period was more than other years)

and further useful as progressing the case for significant security council action (such as a security council resolution authorising amongst other things the use of force, which would legalise and therefore further legitimise the war - in an eye of the beholder way)

cheers

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

I think this has gone on far to long now, Iran is making the United kingdom look like fools, the problem is that life in a country like the UK is far more valuable than it is to Islamofascist controlled country Iran.

If these Sailors where Americans im almost certain that 1/ it wouldnt of happened in the first place 2/ We would be in the Midst of war right now.

The thing that worrys me is that Iran is too confident, its like they have a card up there sleeve(already developed ICBM or even something crude perhaps?)

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

I think this has gone on far to long now, Iran is making the United kingdom look like fools, the problem is that life in a country like the UK is far more valuable than it is to Islamofascist controlled country Iran.

If these Sailors where Americans im almost certain that 1/ it wouldnt of happened in the first place 2/ We would be in the Midst of war right now.

The thing that worrys me is that Iran is too confident, its like they have a card up there sleeve(already developed ICBM or even something crude perhaps?)

The leader might be smarter than S. Hussein.Maybe a well educated mule this one.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

arguably useful as a componont of the historical record leading up to any action showing global (?) disapproval of Iran and her behaviour (although it is only the security council with 15 member states, including several smaller countries susceptible to sway ... if their vote is needed - or needed to be gained (report recently showed how when african states served on the council, for 2 year periods, the foreign aid they received per year during that 2 year period was more than other years)

and further useful as progressing the case for significant security council action (such as a security council resolution authorising amongst other things the use of force, which would legalise and therefore further legitimise the war - in an eye of the beholder way)

Happytown, really appreciate your knowledge of international law etc.
On the subject of
a) the impartiality of the UN, you make the point that delegates can be bought
b) I posted elsewhere this quote
John Bolton (USA's UN delegate) : "there is no such thing as the United Nations, just a community that can be lead by the only real power that counts, USA".
(not suggesting now that anyone listens to this - bludy long, 40 min, and slightly off topic for this thread - but I post it as a source of this quote nonetheless - found it on ABC Poetica ) http://www.abc.net.au/rn/poetica/stories/2007/1837933.htm "What I Heard About Iraq'
c) then Iran (and Palestine and Bin Laden and others) have the cheek to say we are trying to dominate the rules of the game ?

Would it be fair to say that the problems of the world would seem to start with "entrenched injustice" ?? I just wonder what the moral Presidents of the past (Lincoln etc) would have said.

PS even with the doubtful independence of the votes in the UN, the US still couldn't get them to agree to go into Iraq

 

[numbercruncher]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

The USS Nimitz aircraft carrier battle group will sail Monday for the Persian Gulf.

They says its to releive the carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower, but Three carrier groups in the gulf makes it look like game on is close to me.

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Just some of the headlines this am:

Iran 'fears' US attack in summer
Germany's Merkel Calls On Iran To Release UK Sailors
Bush Calls On Iran To Release 15 UK Sailors, Marines
Bush enters crisis over UK captives
Ahmadinejad:World Powers 'Arrogant' For Failing To Apologize
Iran Letter To IAEA: Withholding Nuclear Information

GWB putting his nose into this is concerning.
Merkel and the EU should bring some sence of reason.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

GWB putting his nose into this is concerning.
Merkel and the EU should bring some sence of reason.

Heck us texans have this trigger finger thing, and when it gets itchy - watch out all you varmits out there ...

 

[bel532]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Just some of the headlines this am:

GWB putting his nose into this is concerning.
Merkel and the EU should bring some sence of reason.

If Merkel and the EU 'pulled their weight' instead of letting the USA do all the 'heavy lifting' (aka the Balkans and Afghanistan etc) they might be able to 'bring some sense of reason', although I don't quite know how this can be achieved when you are dealing with fundamentalist fanatics. Reason and fanatics don't normally mix very well.

 

[bel532]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Just some of the headlines this am:

GWB putting his nose into this is concerning.
Merkel and the EU should bring some sence of reason.

If Merkel and the EU 'pulled their wheight' instead of letting the USA do all the 'heavy lifting' (aka the Balkans and Afghanistan etc) they might be able to 'bring some sense of reason', although I don't quite know how this can be achieved when you are dealing with fundamentalist fanatics. Reason and fanatics don't normally mix very well.