The Middle East and Western Asia: Bit of a hot spot?

[Aussiejeff]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

I wouldn't have thought the French to be so vocal on this. It says to me that the ball is set in motion, and one side is going to have to roll over. I can't see Iran allowing inspections etc etc. This is much more serious than Iraq IMO.

Oh well. Fanning the flames with hawkish rhetoric should at least help to push oil towards the $US100/barrel mark. When the first "official" shots are fired, $150+/barrel should be reached in no time. Great.


AJ

 

[Wysiwyg]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

The great wars of last century won`t be repeated.Let`s face it,human beings hate each other.Always have and unless there is a massive change in consciousness,always will.What progress as a species we have made, from the rock and stick to the nuclear weapon?

Antagonists and warmongers , what is the purpose?

 

[explod]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

The great wars of last century won`t be repeated.Let`s face it,human beings hate each other.Always have and unless there is a massive change in consciousness,always will.What progress as a species we have made, from the rock and stick to the nuclear weapon?

Antagonists and warmongers , what is the purpose?

Maybe but interesting changes are taking place. It revolves around the villiage. One apon a time there were lots of villiages throughout the woods and they used to fight each other all the time. They cut the woods down, started to graze cattle, became friendly and to trade cattle and other goods they formed a town. The towns used to fight each other but a King came along and formed them all into a country and had the knights stop all the fighting because the King wanted greater trade and also build up an army to defend the country. Then the country was at risk from a bigger country so the King formed an alliance with other countries and the different countires all formed different alliances depending on politics religion and where they could make the most money. Then with approval of the leaders to do better business the internet was introduced and everyone in the whole world began to talk to each other and form all sorts of ideas, but above all everyone began to understand the other and everyone wanted to share the world evenly so they formed a world government and got rid of JWB and JWH.

My Grandaughter talks on the internet to girls her own age from all over and they do not understand the demarcation lines that we see. Just maybe this new generation will bring about the last part of the story which is the dream at this time. She votes for the first time this year.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Maybe but interesting changes are taking place....

My Grandaughter talks on the internet to girls her own age from all over and they do not understand the demarcation lines that we see. Just maybe this new generation will bring about the last part of the story which is the dream at this time. She votes for the first time this year.

Interesting observation explod. My mrs. has great faith in the new generation and a lot of folks we know have made similar observations to you.

I'm a bit more cynical and think there are two opposing paths taken by the young. One that is selfish, uncultured, without hope and violent, and one that is extremely hopeful, spiritual, (and I don't mean religious by that) and activist. I'm not sure there are enough of the latter type to make a change.

But really hope I'm dead wrong and you and they are right... and I'll back them anyway.

Cheers

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

I wouldn't have thought the French to be so vocal on this. It says to me that the ball is set in motion, and one side is going to have to roll over. I can't see Iran allowing inspections etc etc. This is much more serious than Iraq IMO.

Were it not for Sarkozy, I strongly doubt France would be sabre rattling like this. I'm not really up on him, but believe he is of "neo-con" style ideology and I wonder if the frogs really knew what they were getting with him.

 

[explod]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Interesting observation explod. My mrs. has great faith in the new generation and a lot of folks we know have made similar observations to you.

I'm a bit more cynical and think there are two opposing paths taken by the young. One that is selfish, uncultured, without hope and violent, and one that is extremely hopeful, spiritual, (and I don't mean religious by that) and activist. I'm not sure there are enough of the latter type to make a change.

But really hope I'm dead wrong and you and they are right... and I'll back them anyway.

Cheers

I believe that we will go into a deep financial depression in the next few years so it will be interesting to see how the selfish uncultured part of society cope with this and what changes it will bring from that point. A bit like an alcoholic, usually dont' wake up till they have lost everything and thier rise back up is from the gutter itself.

Like the markets, up and down or the pendulum swings. Trouble is it always seems to be to the extremes, we are never satisfied with the middle ground.

 

[disarray]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Were it not for Sarkozy, I strongly doubt France would be sabre rattling like this. I'm not really up on him, but believe he is of "neo-con" style ideology and I wonder if the frogs really knew what they were getting with him.

sarkozy is a right wing nationalist (though we was born in hungary) and achieved a great deal of prominence for confronting the muslim problem after the various waves of french riots. it is interesting to see him take a stand against iran seeing as leftist french governments have supported it for so long, so it really is a telling shift in french politics.

the french knew exactly what they were getting with him - they were ditching their ineffectual appeasment oriented socialists and taking up someone with a backbone. france (and a great deal of europe for that matter) has a huge problem with incompatible muslim immigrants which will only get worse, so we can expect further shifts to the nationalist right as is happening in belgium and the netherlands.

i think socialism and liberalism will die off with the baby boomers while the next generations swing right to try and clean up the mess they made.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

i think socialism and liberalism will die off with the baby boomers while the next generations swing right to try and clean up the mess they made.

History has shown us over and over that when the pendulum swings hard right (ie: essentially to neo fascism), the purges that follow only create a differnet type of *mess*.... unfortunately it usually involves a lot of extreme pain & blood-letting for the masses. No different than when it swings hard left...

I'm not sure that's a good thing for the human race in general either.

And sure, the internet might appear to be a tool for *good* but boy, it doesn't take much for *bad* elements to hijack it and spread their poisonous propaganda WORLD WIDE in a very short space of time (whether they are extremist right wingers or extremist left wingers, the undue influence they can now wield is frightening...).

The struggle for a conservative, somewhat peaceful *middle road* in politics these days seems to be getting swamped by many strident voices.

Sigh.

AJ

 

[disarray]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

The struggle for a conservative, somewhat peaceful *middle road* in politics these days seems to be getting swamped by many strident voices.

globalisation has changed the rules. it's easy for a monocultural / monoreligious society to find a middle road as most people essentially fall into a similar cultural category with similar aims and ideals - example, japan or john howards vision 1950's australia. europe on the other hand, after coming close together after tearing themselves apart twice in 40 years have imported millions of uneducated, agitated arab muslims with a totally different religion, culture and mindset who do not want to assimilate. i do not see a peaceful solution.

as we're on the topic of global conflict, here's an interesting story about the man who saved the world from nuclear annihilation

http://maltastar.com/pages/msfullart.asp?an=15214

The date is 1 September 1983 and the Cold War between the Soviet Union and USA is in full gear, when from the New York skies Korean Air Lines Flight 007 flies from JFK, destination Seoul, South Korea.

In the middle of the flight, while accidently passing through Soviet air space, Soviet fighter jets appear getting close the aircraft. The Soviets, who didn't know the plane contained civilians, warned the pilot that they will shoot down the aircraft if it doesn't identify itself, and the pilot, for some unknown reason, doesn't respond.

Reports say the pilot never actually received the information, although theories about this are still unclear. An hour passes as the fighter jets still accompany the aircraft, and the orders from Soviet military is to shoot down the aircraft just as the plane was leaving Soviet airspace.

The Soviet fighter jets shot down the plane, with the aircraft plunging 35,000 feet in less than 90 seconds, killing 269 civilians, including a US congressman.

Hell broke loose. As the Soviets tried to defend their 'mistake', US President Ronald Raegan described the Soviets actions as "barbaric" and "a crime against humanity that must never be forgotten".

The tension between the two mega-powers hit an all-time high, and on 15 September 1983 the US administration banned Soviet aircrafts from operating in US airspace. With the political climate in dangerous territory, both US and Soviet government were on high-alert believing an attack was imminent.

It was a cold night at the Serpukhov-15 bunker in Moscow on 26 September 1983 as Strategic Rocket Forces lieutenant colonel Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov resumed his duty, monitoring the skies of the Soviet Union, after taking a shift of someone else who couldn't go to work.

Just past midnight, Petrov received a computer report he'd dreaded all his military career to see, the computer captured a nuclear military missile being launched from the US, destination Moscow.

In the event of such an attack, the Soviet Union’s strategy protocol was to to launch an immediate all-out nuclear weapons counterattack against the United States with nuclear power, and immediately afterwards inform top political and military figures. From there, it would be taken a decision to further the military offensive on America.

Stanislav Petrov

The bunker was in full-alarm, with red lights all over the place as the missile was captured by the Soviet satellites via computers. Petrov wasn't convinced though. He believed that if the US attacked, they would have attacked all-out, not just sending one missile and giving a chance for them (the Soviets) to attack back.

Petrov figured something didn't make sense, as strategically, just one missile from the US would be a strategic disaster. He took some time to think and decided not to give the order a nuclear attack against America, since in his opinion, one missile didn't make sense strategically and it could easily have been a computer error.

But then, seconds later, the situation turned extremely serious. A second missile was spotted by the satellite. The pressure by the officers in the bunker to commence responsive actions against America started growing. A third missile was spotted, followed by a fourth. A couple of seconds later, a fifth one was spotted... everyone in the bunker was agitated as the USSR was under missile attack.

He had two options. Go with his instinct and dismiss the missiles as computer errors, breaking military protocol in the process or take responsive action and commence full-blown nuclear actions against America, potentially killing millions.

He decided it was a computer error, knowing deep down that if he was wrong, missiles would be raining down in Moscow in minutes.

Seconds turned to minutes, and as time passed it was clear Petrov was right, it was a computer error after all. Stanislav Petrov had prevented a worldwide nuclear war, a doomsday scenario that would have annihilated entire cities. He was a hero. Those around him congratulated him for his superb judgment.

Upon further investigation it resulted that the error came from a very rare sunlight alignment, which the computer read as missile.

Of course, top brass in the Kremlin didn't find it so heroic, as he broke military protocol and if he would have been wrong, risked millions of Russian lives. He was sent into early retirement, with a measly $200 a month pension, suffering a nervous breakdown in the process.

Due to military secrecy, nobody knew Petrov's heroic judgment until 1998, when a book written by a Russian officer present at the bunker revealed that World War 3 was closer than people thought, and a nuclear holocaust was avoided by a close shave.

Petrov reminisces what could have been if he didn't get that extra shift that night

Even though the Russian have little sympathy to the man who saved millions of American lives, the United Nations and a number of US agencies honoured the man who could have started a nuclear war, but didn't.

In 2008, a documentary film entitled 'The Man who saved the World' is set to be released, perhaps giving Petrov some financial help, thanking him for the incredible part he had in keeping the US and the USSR out of a full-blown war.

Without knowing on the cold Moscow night back in 1983, a badly paid 44 year old military officer saved the world, and made himself one of the most influential persons of the century in the process, saving more lives than anyone ever did.

Most of today's people don't know it, but today's world as we know it, is like it is because of Stanislav Petrov.

 

[robert toms]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

I thought it was decided that the airliner did not "accidentally" fly over Kumchatna peninsula...American military aircraft tailed the South korean passenger plane for much of their journey across the Pacific.
As I remember it was a game of bluff and cold-war spying that went horribly wrong.
The reports that I read said that the Americans could not get their photos from satellite,and that the airliner was used instead...to stray over extremely sensitive military areas was stupid, incompetent and these were well-known to all concerned.
The airliner refused to comply with, or even recognise, instructions from the Soviet fighter pilots and was then shot down.
I remember the incident well..The responsible Soviet pilot got a medal.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

sarkozy is a right wing nationalist (though we was born in hungary) and achieved a great deal of prominence for confronting the muslim problem after the various waves of french riots. it is interesting to see him take a stand against iran seeing as leftist french governments have supported it for so long, so it really is a telling shift in french politics.

the french knew exactly what they were getting with him - they were ditching their ineffectual appeasment oriented socialists and taking up someone with a backbone. france (and a great deal of europe for that matter) has a huge problem with incompatible muslim immigrants which will only get worse, so we can expect further shifts to the nationalist right as is happening in belgium and the netherlands.

i think socialism and liberalism will die off with the baby boomers while the next generations swing right to try and clean up the mess they made.

The move to the right in France and other parts of Europe has been because of the ludicrous immigration policies of the incumbents. With Sarkozy, the French believed that the immigration and multicultural situation would be addressed, but they didn't bargain for dubya style chauvinism.

Having a backbone does not mean antagonizing other nations. I'm not convinced the Iranians are a threat at all, sans interference from the west. (And no, I do not support their theocracy)

You make the connection with liberalism and socialism with inappropriate immigration policies, yet we have conservative governments indulging in the same practices, such as Oz and USA.

Socialism will not die out with the baby boomers, but it will have a new face. Liberalism will never die out, nor will conservatism.

Corporatism is the new socialism, we see that with the latest moves within The Fed... think about that.

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Where there's smoke there's fire. 'Reports' like this are normally used to either soften up the electorate, or measure support.....

US 'planning surgical Iran strikes'
Anne Davies, Washington
October 1, 2007 - 7:39AM

Australia, Britain and Israel have "expressed interest" in a US campaign to launch "surgical" bombing raids on Iran targetting the Revolutionary Guard Corps facilities, according to one of America's leading investigative reporters, Seymour Hersh.

In a lengthy article in the latest issue of The New Yorker, Mr Hersh details how the US is making plans for a strike on the Iran, beefing up intelligence resources within the CIA and shifting its rhetorical campaign in a bid to win support from the American people should the strikes proceed.

Mr Hersh says the administration has stopped trying to justify the campaign on the basis of curtailing Iran's nuclear ambitions and instead is redefining the war in Iraq as a strategic battle between the United States and Iran.

 

[Aussiejeff]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Surgical strikes, huh? Like, they clinically eliminate the "nasty" bit using uber-hi-tec without affecting the rest of the "body"? Wow! Just like they did when they won the war in Iraq all those years back?

Hooray for USA!!!! Go Unca SAM! Make our stock markets FLY!!!!!

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Surgical strikes, huh? Like, they clinically eliminate the "nasty" bit using uber-hi-tec without affecting the rest of the "body"? Wow! Just like they did when they won the war in Iraq all those years back?

Hooray for USA!!!! Go Unca SAM! Make our stock markets FLY!!!!!

Defence stocks outperformed last quarter.

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Ahmadinejad is playing with fire. When the French say 'prepare for war' you're pushing the boundries. With Germany heading more and more Right, they'll be next to blast them with some rhetoric....hooly dooly, the French and the Germans together!

If Iran keep pushing towards nuclear enrichment, it will end in conflict.

What scale is another thing...

Interesting times. Glad we're close to New Zealand...

Iran says will go ahead with atomic work
October 5, 2007 - 6:39AM

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the world could not stop the Islamic state's nuclear program, which the West fears is a cover to build a nuclear bomb, the official IRNA news agency said.

Ahmadinejad was speaking the day after French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner called on the European Union to take the lead in widening financial sanctions on Iran, saying the world could not afford to wait for UN action to rein in Tehran's nuclear ambitions.

"I announce to the whole world that the Iranian nation has passed the difficult points (on its nuclear path) and no power can stop this nation from making more and more (atomic) achievements," Ahmadinejad said.

 

[disarray]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

With Sarkozy, the French believed that the immigration and multicultural situation would be addressed, but they didn't bargain for dubya style chauvinism.

i don't think his iranian policy condemns him to dubya chauvinism status just yet.

Having a backbone does not mean antagonizing other nations. I'm not convinced the Iranians are a threat at all, sans interference from the west. (And no, I do not support their theocracy)

sometimes it does. chamberlain finally figured that one out in 1939. and iran weren't a threat until they voted in the hard right - now they are. yes it is the fault of american foreign policy.

You make the connection with liberalism and socialism with inappropriate immigration policies, yet we have conservative governments indulging in the same practices, such as Oz and USA.

early australian immigration under conservative governments was characterised by its eurocentricity. as society moved left so immigration policies were changed. now under a conservative government we have a halt put on sudanese refugees. you are right movements like socialism and liberalism will never die, but as the pendulum swings they will lose influence and the government policy they influence will shift with it.

Corporatism is the new socialism

how so? corporatism looks like government by cartel, and i suspect the redistribution of wealth will be rather top heavy.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

how so? corporatism looks like government by cartel, and i suspect the redistribution of wealth will be rather top heavy.

You know what? I've discovered the futility of arguing with Bill O'Reillyesque right wingers is.... futile. As I'm in a "way of water" sort of mood, I'll leave you to your own opinion.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Ahmadinejad is playing with fire. When the French say 'prepare for war' you're pushing the boundries. With Germany heading more and more Right, they'll be next to blast them with some rhetoric....hooly dooly, the French and the Germans together!

If Iran keep pushing towards nuclear enrichment, it will end in conflict.

What scale is another thing...

Interesting times. Glad we're close to New Zealand...

I couldn't agree moree kennas. Living in a western democracy beats a theocracy any day and living in this part of the world beats anywhere else. At least we are free to express our opinions without petty fascists throwing us in prison and muffling our opinions.

gg

 

[Julia]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Ahmadinejad is playing with fire. When the French say 'prepare for war' you're pushing the boundries. With Germany heading more and more Right, they'll be next to blast them with some rhetoric....hooly dooly, the French and the Germans together!

If Iran keep pushing towards nuclear enrichment, it will end in conflict.

What scale is another thing...

Interesting times. Glad we're close to New Zealand...

Hi Kennas,

I'm a bit puzzled about how being close to NZ is going to make any difference to us?

(Other than, of course, being close to all those lovely Kiwi people and pretty woolly lambs.)

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Hi Kennas,

I'm a bit puzzled about how being close to NZ is going to make any difference to us?

(Other than, of course, being close to all those lovely Kiwi people and pretty woolly lambs.)

Hi Julia, I'm half referring to Garpal's point and the fact that NZ will be one of the last places to be directly effected by international conflict. We've been lucky to see so little conflict down here, apart from participating in other people's. Plus, Kiwi's and their wooly lambs are OK. Well, the one's that are more like Australians anyway.