The Middle East and Western Asia: Bit of a hot spot?

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Could be more justification for the US to keep the war machine rolling. I doubt they have this 'analyst' on the books, but who knows. Maybe the recon work has been done in preparation for a retaliation once the US launch? Seems inevitable that Iran will get their hands on a nuke one day so they have their own deterrant against Israel. Interesting times. Good old human nature showing it's colours.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Could be more justification for the US to keep the war machine rolling. I doubt they have this 'analyst' on the books, but who knows. Maybe the recon work has been done in preparation for a retaliation once the US launch? Seems inevitable that Iran will get their hands on a nuke one day so they have their own deterrant against Israel. Interesting times. Good old human nature showing it's colours.

Yeah, I find it incredible that as a species with an (allegedly) big brain, we don't seem to have learned a bloody thing.

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Yeah, I find it incredible that as a species with an (allegedly) big brain, we don't seem to have learned a bloody thing.

Yep, but on the other hand I've considered that the only reason we have managed to survive as a species is because of our desire and ability to protect our space by either defence or pre emptive strike. We only have minor physical attributes that contribute to our survival. Like having a thumb, for example. Our desire to survive, and our cunning, has been the basis of our survival through some pretty tough periods in evolution. I just wonder when we're going to get over it and unite. Perhaps when there's a common enemy much more threatening, like an incredible plague, or aliens maybe.

 

[Rafa]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

i think your right about the aliens....

But as for the rest... remember, a comfortable species, in an extinct one.
The Earth ain't no playground... its a battlefield.


Wow...
Sorry, I have livepool vs milan in ancient athens on my mind...
C'MON YOU RED MEN!

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

In the Australian today

(am I being too pessimistic? )

US warns Iran as armada enters Gulf

May 24, 2007

THE US today threatened new UN sanctions to punish Iran's nuclear drive as it ratcheted up tensions with the biggest display of naval power in the Gulf in years.

A bristling US armada led by two aircraft carriers steamed into waters near Iran for exercises, hours before UN watchdogs said Iran was expanding its uranium enrichment program in defiance of international sanctions.

The International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran continues to enrich uranium - which can provide fuel for civilian reactors but also make nuclear bombs........

 

[KIWIKARLOS]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

just a story for interest sake...

A good friend of mine was born in iran and her and her family used to make regular visits there.

Two years ago they went back just before xmas, while there it was decided by this girl and some of her friend they would have a small xmas party with some friends.

After about half an hour two white vans turned up at this place and police seperated boys from girls dragged them to the vans and drove them to a police station (which was described as a dungeon)

She spent 3 nights there with the girls with no food or water in the middle of winter, the only contact she had with her folks was for 10mins during the 3rd day.

on the forth day the boys and girls were brought into a common room one boy one girl brought out in front of everyone and whipped !


then only after paying 300 dollars each were they let go.

This girl was 19 at the time she still loves the place but is afraid to go there.

My point is to show that in that situation the only thing that kept her going was knowing she was going back to aus. Imagine if there were no countries like Aus, uk or america to go back to.

That is why support this so called war on terror even though i know there is alot of BS that america spin but i can't imagine living with that ideology.

That same things happened in afganistan and Iraq and still do.

Scary stuff

 

[drillinto]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

For your consideration

One opinion, not middle-of-the-road, on the Middle East

http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=9302

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

For your consideration

One opinion, not middle-of-the-road, on the Middle East

http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=9302

drill, I read the intro and it lost me:

Western analysts are forever bleating about the strategic importance of the middle east. But despite its oil, this backward region is less relevant than ever, and it would be better for everyone if the rest of the world learned to ignore it

There are 2 things still very relevant about the Middle East:

1. OIL.
2. Strategic logistic routes.

The rest is desert, and history.

Even if the oil wasn't essential to the western world, the stategic nature of it as a cross roads between Africa, Asia and Europe will forever make it relevant.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

For your consideration, One opinion, not middle-of-the-road, on the Middle East

thanks drill, interesting article.
I highlight a couple of sentences, not so much because I agree with them, but certainly a new way to look at things.
Certainly to call terrorism "an irritant" is novel - maybe even innovative (??)
Certainly we would have done better to ignore Iraq (in hindsight) than to reap the harvest we have sown there.

It is true enough that if Iran's nuclear installations are bombed in some overnight raid, there is likely to be some retaliation, but we live in fortunate times in which we have only the irritant of terrorism instead of world wars to worry about—and Iran's added contribution is not likely to leave much of an impression. There may be good reasons for not attacking Iran's nuclear sites—including the very slow and uncertain progress of its uranium enrichment effort—but its ability to strike back is not one of them. Even the seemingly fragile tanker traffic down the Gulf and through the straits of Hormuz is not as vulnerable as it seems—Iran and Iraq have both tried to attack it many times without much success, and this time the US navy stands ready to destroy any airstrip or jetty from which attacks are launched.....

Possibly more here I could agree with ... (possibly because it is less dogmatic, more open to ongoing discussion ( which is what is needed with the people of the region surely)..

The third and greatest error repeated by middle east experts of all persuasions, by Arabophiles and Arabophobes alike, by Turcologists and by Iranists, is also the simplest to define. It is the very odd belief that these ancient nations are highly malleable. Hardliners keep suggesting that with a bit of well-aimed violence ("the Arabs only understand force") compliance will be obtained. But what happens every time is an increase in hostility; defeat is followed not by collaboration, but by sullen non-cooperation and active resistance too. It is not hard to defeat Arab countries, but it is mostly useless. Violence can work to destroy dangerous weapons but not to induce desired changes in behaviour.

Softliners make exactly the same mistake in reverse. They keep arguing that if only this or that concession were made, if only their policies were followed through to the end and respect shown, or simulated, hostility would cease and a warm Mediterranean amity would emerge. Yet even the most thinly qualified of middle east experts must know that Islam, as with any other civilisation, comprehends the sum total of human life, and that unlike some others it promises superiority in all things for its believers, so that the scientific and technological and cultural backwardness of the lands of Islam generates a constantly renewed sense of humiliation and of civilisational defeat. That fully explains the ubiquity of Muslim violence, and reveals the futility of the palliatives urged by the softliners.

The operational mistake that middle east experts keep making is the failure to recognise that backward societies must be left alone, as the French now wisely leave Corsica to its own devices, as the Italians quietly learned to do in Sicily, once they recognised that maxi-trials merely handed over control to a newer and smarter mafia of doctors and lawyers. With neither invasions nor friendly engagements, the peoples of the middle east should finally be allowed to have their own history—the one thing that middle east experts of all stripes seem determined to deny them.

That brings us to the mistake that the rest of us make. We devote far too much attention to the middle east, a mostly stagnant region where almost nothing is created in science or the arts—excluding Israel, per capita patent production of countries in the middle east is one fifth that of sub-Saharan Africa. The people of the middle east (only about five per cent of the world's population) are remarkably unproductive, with a high proportion not in the labour force at all. Not many of us would care to work if we were citizens of Abu Dhabi, with lots of oil money for very few citizens. But Saudi Arabia's 27m inhabitants also live largely off the oil revenues that trickle down to them, leaving most of the work to foreign technicians and labourers: even with high oil prices, Saudi Arabia's annual per capita income, at $14,000, is only about half that of oil-free Israel.

Saudi Arabia has a good excuse, for it was a land of oasis hand-farmers and Bedouin pastoralists who cannot be expected to become captains of industry in a mere 50 years. Much more striking is the oil parasitism of once much more accomplished Iran. It exports only 2.5m barrels a day as compared to Saudi Arabia's 8m, yet oil still accounts for 80 per cent of Iran's exports because its agriculture and industry have become so unproductive.

The middle east was once the world's most advanced region, but these days its biggest industries are extravagant consumption and the venting of resentment. According to the UN's 2004 Arab human development report, the region boasts the second lowest adult literacy rate in the world (after sub-Saharan Africa) at just 63 per cent. Its dependence on oil means that manufactured goods account for just 17 per cent of exports, compared to a global average of 78 per cent. Moreover, despite its oil wealth, the entire middle east generated under 4 per cent of global GDP in 2006—less than Germany.

Unless compelled by immediate danger, we should therefore focus on the old and new lands of creation in Europe and America, in India and east Asia—places where hard-working populations are looking ahead instead of dreaming of the past

 

[drillinto]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

drill, I read the intro and it lost me:



There are 2 things still very relevant about the Middle East:

1. OIL.
2. Strategic logistic routes.

The rest is desert, and history.

Even if the oil wasn't essential to the western world, the stategic nature of it as a cross roads between Africa, Asia and Europe will forever make it relevant.

Yes, the Middle East "strategic logistic routes" are "still very relevant", but that will also change with time. New trans-Arctic shipping routes, to ferry loads between Asia and Europe, should be more than a third quicker for some shipments that now pass through the Suez or Panama canals.

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

The West Bank is having its turn to put on a fire works display. This is practically a Palastinian civil war which could develop into a much longer drawn out internal conflict, creating even more instability in the region. Meanwhile southern Lebanon is turning once again into a Syrian/Iranian sponsored hang out for Hezbolah. Not long before Israel is fighting on two fronts again. What a mess!

New Abbas cabinet outlaws Hamas
June 18, 2007 - 6:34AM

Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas swore in a new cabinet today and outlawed Islamist Hamas fighters after their violent seizure of Gaza, as Israel came under rocket fire from Lebanon in a new front to the crisis.

Adding to the tensions, Israeli troops moved into the north of the Gaza Strip - now an Islamist enclave on the Jewish state's doorstep.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/new-abbas-cabinet-outlaws-hamas/2007/06/18/1182018967051.html

 

[stockGURU]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Kill everybody!

American soldier exposes US policy in Iraq.

 

[disarray]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Petrodollar Warfare: Dollars, Euros and the Upcoming Iranian Oil Bourse

Trading oil in euros, does it matter?

the US will fight tooth and nail to keep the $US the currency of oil.

A shift by OPEC to the euro would rapidly confront the US with an economic “nightmare scenario.” Major oil importers would need to transfer some of their funds from US dollars reserves””stocks, bonds and other assets””into euro reserves. This would see a sharp fall in the value of the dollar, possibly setting in motion a further withdrawal of funds as investors became nervous over the value of their dollar assets. Suddenly the burgeoning US debt, which at present plays little or no role in day-to-day financial calculations, would become a factor of considerable importance.

that quote was written before the iraqi campaign. with US national debt now running at close to 9 trillion dollars the US system does not look to be on steady ground.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=66484
Nelson takes his telescope from his blind eye
and admits oil a factor

one day they might admit that it had nothing to do with terrrorism

 

[disarray]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

** link contains pictures of dead people **

Al-Quada run around cutting the heads off women and children

oil aside, fundamentalists muslims are out of control and there is no peaceful resolution to this conflict. for want of a better term they are at war with us until we convert or they die. there is no middle ground.

ripped off another board -

The reason for the beheading as a choice of death is symbolic in Islam. It goes back to the time of Muhammed and I'm sure predates the founding of Islam, but was cemented as one of the methods of death along with stoning, etc.

It is the correct way to deal with "Kafirs" who oppose the spread of Islam or fight against it. Muhammed and his followers did this with those who opposed him and the Arabic Jews who would not convert. There are a ton of Hadith that support it as how to deal with those who will NOT:

A) Proclaim Allah as the one true God and Muhammed as his Prophet (take shahada).

or,

B) Awknowledge the supremacy of Islamic Sharia and subjugate themselves to the laws of Sharia under the conditions of the Pact of Omar.

C)Those who renounce Islam and will not return back to the fold.

What you see in Iraq MOSTLY when it comes to the beheading is the Sunni Wahabbist Ideology muslims that believe they are waging the correct Jihad by fighting towards the global supremacy of Islamic Sharia Law. They believe that are literally following Muhammed's example in beheading anyone who is opposed to the institution of anything other than Wahabbist Sharian Law and it's global institution.

You can be a member of any of the "traditional" monotheistic religions specified in the Quran and not have to convert to Islam as long as you subjugate yourself to the supremacy of Islamic Law and don't do anything to degrade it or oppose it in any way. (Like you can convert to Islam but you can't convert FROM islam or entice anyone to do so that is Muslim). See the Pact of Omar for the conditions.

However NO polytheistic religious beliefs are acceptable at all and atheism isn't tolerated publically period. No public iconography is allowed of any religion other than Islam. Meaning you can't wear a cross if your are christian or a star of david if you are Jewish anywhere that is visible.

Oh and you can't build any places of worship other than mosques. Existing religious structures of monotheistic religions is permissable, but repairing those if they fall into disrepair is controversial and the construction of new churches or synagogues is usually fobidden.

In Iraq you have a "melting pot" of Sunni and Shiite along with some Kurds to the north. The Sunni and Shiite however both have a fundamentalist Islamic Duty to make Islam the law of the land, but they are at odds regarding whose should be the supreme. Think Catholic vs. Protestant with an all or nothing mentallity.

Democracy isn't an option to the fundamentalists on either side. The Quran and the strong Hadith's interpreted by their most respected Imam's are the law of the land....Period.

For Iraq it truly is the Islamic Inquisition or Islamic Reformation and the world is getting sucked into it.

 

[Rafa]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

its fair to say, based on the above two posts... no side can take the moral high ground... there are no innocent parties in this except the thousands of 'collateral' victims

what exactly is the solution?

how about give up our dependence on oil... that would a good start!

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

no question we (and moslems as well) are at war with AQ.
question is why did we stupidly make them so strong by invading Iraq.

PS disarray - I could post similar websites where Abs are scalped and hanging on a fence - granted old history, and "irrelevant" in the eyes of many .

 

[disarray]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

i didn't post that link to score moral points hindsight, merely to highlight the nature of the enemy being fought in iraq. and you don't need to point out the barbarity of our own race, i am well aware that wanton butchery is part and parcel of the human condition. leave the aboriginal points in the aboriginal thread.

rafa makes an extremely sensible suggestion about giving up dependence on oil which, unfortunately, will never happen because of the interests involved - even with air powered cars available

that said transport is only a small part of overall oil consumption. we use it in plastics, for lubrication, even as a food preservative. we are utterly dependent upon it for so much and we are unlikely to change that any time soon. invest accordingly

 

[Rafa]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

all technologies eventually get superseeded, but I fully understand you point dissarray, there is simply too much vested interest in the oil addiction for it to be disbanded overnight...

atleast nelson was brave (or foolish) enough to admit what most of us already knew... tho i doubt howard will ever admit that!

its why i have said all along, talking about getting out of iraq, and not fighting wars, etc is all well and good... but the fact is we all need oil.

and the fact is our goverments are voted by us and our fighting this war for us... i.e. to secure our oil supplies.

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

disarray - likewise I'm just saying those photos are around as well - I guess I was saying that one problem is that we all react to the daily news as if it's the only history out availble to learn from.

and the fact is our goverments are voted by us and our fighting this war for us... i.e. to secure our oil supplies.

ahhhh ---yuuuuuklkk.
imo rafa, you're oiling a slippery slope there

I heard an expert say the other day - "if we want oil? , then continue to do what we've always done, buy it" !!

BUT he went on ... "what USA REALLY wants is to control who gets oil, and keep the Chinese dragon under control " - made sense at the time. .