The Middle East and Western Asia: Bit of a hot spot?

[bel532]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Bel

What in your opinion should the west do about all this then?

I don't pretend to have an immediate answer to Islamic terorism, as it will take a very long time to combat and win against a foe that does NOT value life itself, but considers this life as simply a step towards the next, hence the 72 virgins myth. It is evident in some countries, even those in the West with a sizeable Muslim population, that there is a reversion to Fundamentalist Islam. I read recently that a significant propoprtion of Muslim youth living in the UK believe it should enshrine Sharia Law.

It will take as long to counter Fundamentalist Islam, if not longer, then it took to beat Communism, especially when you have a segment in the West (very prevalent amongst the so called 'intellectuals') who hate the West itself. There seems to be an autocratic trait amongst intellectuals against those who oppose their point of view. This was evident prior to WW11 when a number of intellectuals, especially in the UK, supported Facism

 

[chops_a_must]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

There seems to be an autocratic trait amongst intellectuals against those who oppose their point of view. This was evident prior to WW11 when a number of intellectuals, especially in the UK, supported Facism

Oh... like... Bohr, Sartre, Einstein, Camus, Orwell, Husserl, Arendt, Moore, Wittgenstein, Hemingway and Bertrand Russell?

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s1890186.htm

Britain hails word of sailors' release in Iran
Britain has hailed the unexpected announcement from Iran that its 15 sailors held in the country are to be released, while relieved relatives erupted in joy.

But Britain also says it is trying to find out exactly when and how they will be freed, amid anticipation it could be as soon as later in the day (local time).

"We welcome what the President has said about the release of our 15 personnel. We are now trying to establish exactly what this means in terms of the method and timing of their release," a British government spokesman said.

The eight sailors and seven marines were captured on March 23.

British officials say they had just completed boarding an Indian merchant vessel under a United Nations (UN) mandate, when they were seized at gunpoint.

Britain insists they were in Iraqi territorial waters, while Iran says they were in Iranian waters.

In Iran, President Mahmood Ahmadinejad's announcement took everyone by surprise.

"While insisting on our rights, these 15 sailors have been pardoned and we offer their freedom to the British people," he said.

"I ask Mr Blair not to judge the military personnel for the truths that they said," he said, referring to the televised "confessions".

Ripley's believe it or not

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

That's how my granpa sorted out problems with his neighbours too - just sat around with em and talked horses .. they forgot what they were fighting over
(maybe tat should be ...with his neeeigh- bours )

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

That's how my granpa sorted out problems with his neighbours too - just sat around with em and talked horses .. they forgot what they were fighting over
(maybe tat should be ...with his neeeigh- bours )

Just don't let the ladies get involved... certain disaster.

I've never known such a diabolical and vicious sub-set of humanity as horsewomen. :run:

(with the exception of despots, mass murderers, politicians etc)

 

[Sean K]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Just don't let the ladies get involved... certain disaster.

Some American Indian tribes had an interesting culture/policy about war. It was that only the men fought them, but it was only the women who could decide whether to go to war or not. No wonder they were always fighting each other! (I'm not sure if I'm meaning that as a joke, or not )

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Kennas - fascinating lol
like the bloke who says I make the big decisions, the missus makes the small decisions -
Like, she decides when we'll get a new car, where we'll live, little stuff like that ..
I decide the big decisions like, whether Hicks was really guilty, why the libs lost the state election etc

Wayne- not really relevant, but the Chinese have a saying "sarm gaw nooyun, yut gaw hoi" , means "three women = one marketplace".

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Troubles In all 3000 killed in Nth Ireland - of them 500+300 = 800 army and police and including Lord Mountbatten - (British Royal - every chance he was blown up with american explosive )

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWER113g_2A lest we forget (this one for British and Nth Ireland servicemen etc who died in Nth Ireland).

Of course the Irish had legitimate complaints. But resorting to terrorism was an ugly period in their history, and (touch wood) hopefully in the past.

As I mentioned before, active duty on home soil . Must be difficult diplomatic matter to handle on Remembrance day, you'd think.

We may have our disagreements in Aus, but at least we haven't reached that stage yet

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Tit for tat. ?
Personally I'd believe both stories - the Iranians probably threatened the UK servicemen with jail if they didnt say nice things on TV, (2 weeks)

and the USA / CIA probably kidnapped that Iranian diplomat and did (at least) the same to him ( 2 months)


http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s1892391.htm

Families meet ICRC over Iranian detainees in Iraq
The families of five Iranians held for three months in United States detention in Iraq have met an International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) representative to ask for news about them.
The meeting comes after an Iranian diplomat kidnapped in Baghdad in February said after his release last week that he had been tortured "day and night" and interrogated by CIA officials.
Washington denies the claims.
"The families of the five kidnapped diplomats asked the ICRC to play a more active role in alleviating their concerns," state radio reported.
"The families asked for video footage of the detained diplomats to reduce their concern."
The state media also said the ICRC had described the request as beyond the organisation's authority.

http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s1892093.htm

Newspaper coverage
The sailors' accounts of psychological and emotional torture dominated Saturday's press and media in the UK.
The coverage was mixed with that of four British troops, two of them women, killed in southern Iraq on Thursday, which tempered homecoming celebrations.
Newspapers praised the sailors for the way they handled the situation, including not fighting back against the Iranians' superior firepower.

 

[bel532]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Tit for tat. ?
Personally I'd believe both stories - the Iranians probably threatened the UK servicemen with jail if they didnt say nice things on TV, (2 weeks)

and the USA / CIA probably kidnapped that Iranian diplomat and did (at least) the same to him ( 2 months)


http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s1892391.htm

http://abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200704/s1892093.htm

Whatever happened to the instructions given to prisoners of war in times goneby, when, if captured, you only gave your"

Name,
Rank, and
Number.

Where they really ourgunned and where was the Brits' marine escort? I hope the Aussies have got more guts if they get caught in a similar situation.

Footnote. And now these so called 'UK servicemen/woman' are going to make money out of their cowardice!

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Whatever happened to the instructions given to prisoners of war in times goneby, when, if captured, you only gave your"

Name,
Rank, and
Number.

Where they really ourgunned and where was the Brits' marine escort? I hope the Aussies have got more guts if they get caught in a similar situation.

Footnote. And now these so called 'UK servicemen/woman' are going to make money out of their cowardice!

?? bel you never cease to amaze me lol.
the brits are being championed by their superiors for this alleged cowardice (in the face of vastly superior force) they avoided a major incident - no point in being blown up is there?

and as for the name rank and serial number bit , lol. Try that with a pack of dogs taking bits out of your naked legs, with sadists around itching to stitch you up again, or grin over your dead body.

what do you think we've been on about on the hick's thread for the last 200 posts - sheesh.

Next war, you can be in the front line m8 - and btw , if you're captured, don't do what hundreds of US airforcemen did in Korea and change allegiances / sympathies. Some even stayed in Korea after the war. - Amid screams of "Geneva Convention ignored" from USA.

According to modern enlightened USA, the Geneva Convention is "old hat" and only applies to "others".

 

[bel532]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

?? bel you never cease to amaze me lol.
the brits are being championed by their superiors for this alleged cowardice (in the face of vastly superior force) they avoided a major incident - no point in being blown up is there?

and as for the name rank and serial number bit , lol. Try that with a pack of dogs taking bits out of your naked legs, with sadists around itching to stitch you up again, or grin over your dead body.

what do you think we've been on about on the hick's threadfor the last 200 posts - sheesh.

Next war, you can be in the front line m8 - and btw , if you're captured, don't do what hundreds of US airforcemen did in Korea and change allegiances / sympathies. Some even stayed in Korea after the war. - Amid screams of "Geneva Convention ignored" from USA.

According to modern enlightened USA, the Geneva Convention is "old hat" and only applies to "others".

Were they really outgunned, or don't the Brits and their 'intellectual' supporters believe in Democracy anymore. Let the Mullahs have thier way 'at any price' is their motto!

Reminds me of Chamberlains' Peace in our Time' (read 'Peace at Any Price') whe he returned from his meeting with Hitler prior to the outbreak of WW11. Bullies never respect cowards!

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Were they really outgunned, or don't the Brits and their 'intellectual' supporters believe in Democracy anymore. Let the Mullahs have thier way 'at any price' is their motto!

Reminds me of Chamberlains' Peace in our Time' (read 'Peace at Any Price') whe he returned from his meeting with Hitler prior to the outbreak of WW11. Bullies never respect cowards!

yeah, yeah , and "there are none so blind as those who will not see" as you also told us .

and that's why you refuse to watch Kerry Obrien etc . sheesh

 

[bel532]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

yeah, yeah , and "there are none so blind as those who will not see" as you also told us .

and that's why you refuse to watch Kerry Obrien etc . sheesh

If you had read my post carefully, instead of using your verbal sneering attitude to criticise it, you would have noticed that I consider Tony Jones to be a far superior interviewer. Why should I listen to an inferior product when a better one is avalaible? Maybe the time slot is too late for you, as it maybe past your bed time. Well that's your choice!

 

[2020hindsight]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

If you had read my post carefully, instead of using your verbal sneering attitude to criticise it, you would have noticed that I consider Tony Jones to be a far superior interviewer. Why should I listen to an inferior product when a better one is avalaible? Maybe the time slot is too late for you, as it maybe past your bed time. Well that's your choice!

bel, I watch both when I can, not always of course.
That's how I can confidentaly say there is no bias with either.
but ABC bias is getting off fthe track - you proposed that the poms were lily livered cowards as I recall. I suggest they had more intelligence than to aggrevate a delicate international incident
a) I notice their superiors agree with me, not you, and
b) shame USA didn't takes some notes
USA is as much a part of the problem as of the solution - many would say the biggest part of the problem, including the likes of Nelson Mandela and many thinkers out there.
PS My guess is that you will find some reason to find a bias in Mandela as well

 

[Happy]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

If Brits stood their ground, US could have good excuse to address Iran problem, now they have to wait for another opportunity.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

For those who seem to be advocating a war with Iran watch this movie => Threads Pt. 1 (subsequent parts available on the site). Made in the 80's, the theme is eerily familiar and topical today... just so there can be no mistake as to what the stakes are.

 

[Kimosabi]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

For those who seem to be advocating a war with Iran watch this movie => Threads Pt. 1 (subsequent parts available on the site). Made in the 80's, the theme is eerily familiar and topical today... just so there can be no mistake as to what the stakes are.

Iran crisis still ready to blow … (by Larry Edelson)
4/5/2007 8:00:00 AM

Yesterday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced he will free the 15 British sailors and marines captured on March 23. That's welcome news.

However, I don't think this political maneuver changes the underlying situation one iota. And gold's price is confirming that. Instead of falling on the news of the pending release of the hostages, the yellow metal soared nearly $10 to its highest level since last May!

My view on the Iran crisis hasn't changed one bit: Despite the potential release of the British hostages, a military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is coming, sooner rather than later.

In fact, last week, I was in Dubai, and from my hotel room I looked out over the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz … Iran's coastline was off in the distance. You know what else I saw? U.S. warships staging war games. According to other sources, U.S. naval ships are ready to deploy missiles on a moment's notice.

So mark my words: An attack on Iran is still in the cards.

I'll tell you about the investment implications in a moment. Understanding them is absolutely essential to your financial well-being.

First, let's talk about the situation itself …

An Attack Would Be Swift,
The Ramifications Long-Lasting

The U.S. doesn't want a wider war in the Middle East, and certainly not a wider ground war. But at this point, there is no stopping a missile strike to destroy Iran's nuclear ambitions.

The strike could be carried out primarily by Britain and the U.S., and it would be over in less than 24 hours. But the implications and consequences could go on for years. We live in a time when war, rumors of war, terrorism, and domestic social unrest are reaching extremes greater than anything we've seen in decades, and I don't think this will peak for at least two more years.

I'm basing this on my studies of the "Cycles of War," research that I published and copyrighted in 1988. I first told you about this research last February.

I conducted the research in the mid-1980s based on the historical patterns of domestic and international wars over a 2,600-year period. It wasn't guesswork, it was based on solid statistics and a computer program that analyzed hard economic and military data.

The pattern was clear: I discovered a 17.71-year cycle of war that has continued to prevail throughout modern history.

For example, when I performed my research, the last peak of the war cycle had occurred in 1974, just after the height of the Vietnam War. My model projected 1991 as the next peak.

Using more detailed data, in 1988 when I published the research, I fine-tuned the projections and went on record forecasting August 1990 as the point in time when the war cycle would next emerge.

In late August 1990, Iraq attacked Kuwait, right on schedule. The Iraq invasion of Kuwait, and the subsequent Gulf War I, was no surprise to me.
Fast forward to today: My current data points to April 2008 — one year from now — as the peak of the current cycle.

However, the peaks in the war cycle can vary by up to two years in duration. So it's entirely possible we will not see a peak until April 2010.
Bottom line: No matter what the exact timeline, I believe things are going to get worse before they get better. And that has critical importance to the markets and you!

Here Are the Potential Consequences
And Investment Implications …

First, President Bush's popularity is already at all-time lows. Don't for a moment think it can't go any lower. Over the next 12 months, I wouldn't be surprised to see various political parties, not just the Democrats, call for Bush's resignation.

At the same time, Republicans and Democrats, already polarized, will be at each other's throats more than in any recent times.

Second, the U.S. dollar is already plunging. That in itself is very different from previous wars, where the dollar was considered a safe haven currency.

The greenback has fallen more than 25% since 2001. It barely lifted its head off the mat in 2006. And now it's starting a new leg down, sliding in value against every major currency.

This is putting upward pressure on inflation at the worst possible time. It also means money is leaving the U.S., seeking safer investments and better returns elsewhere. Gold is skyrocketing, and so are foreign stock markets.

Third, interest rates could jump sharply. You're not seeing this yet. But in my opinion, it's inevitable — due to the falling dollar.

Fourth, military and political conflict often sets the background for trade wars. Well, the opening salvo was fired last week at China, with Washington raising tariffs on certain Chinese imports.

Free trade, which in large part helped give birth to the great economic boom of the 1990s, is at danger of reversing.

Fifth, because of the falling dollar, increased military expenditures, and the very weak real estate markets in the U.S., you can expect the budget deficit and the national debt to start mushrooming again.

Sixth, every investment under the sun will be affected …

• Most U.S. stocks will get crushed. You are already seeing this in the sectors that are most vulnerable to the kind of tumultuous environment we're in. Real estate construction and property stocks are getting killed. Mortgage companies are getting destroyed, with some down as much as 90%. Blue chip stocks vulnerable to trade wars are starting to fall, with some of the blue chips already down as much as 10% in the past month.
• Meanwhile, hard asset companies are jumping again. Gold and mining shares, oil and gas shares, agricultural companies, and more are all looking very strong. I think they can easily make huge gains in the months ahead.
• Most foreign stock markets are now taking on a bit of safe haven status. Witness the new record highs in China, barely a month after a 10% correction. Japan, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore are all looking good according to my models and indicators.
• Gold is already trading at the $670 level, up almost 4% in just the last two weeks. It can easily run to new record highs over $732 any day now.
• Oil is trading at $67 a barrel, up a whopping 15% in the last two weeks. But make note: The recent rise in oil is not just related to the crisis with Iran … there are other fundamental drivers as well. As I have maintained all along, the oil market is heading above $100 a barrel, with or without a Middle East crisis.

Now, more than ever, is the time to protect your money from rising inflation, the falling dollar, and violent market swings caused by geopolitical uncertainty.

Given the situation, I continue to think the bulk of your money should be kept in cash or cash-equivalent investments. In my opinion, it's wise to park as much as 75% of your total net worth (exclusive of your primary home) in such investments.

Granted, the dollar is falling and inflation rising rapidly. But as long as you keep that cash in safe, liquid money markets earning 4% or 5% a year, you're going to be ok.

For some of the remaining money, I still think gold is the best investment in the world right now. The yellow metal helps protect the purchasing power of your money … acts as a hedge against inflation … and protects you from the vagaries of a war-torn geopolitical environment.

You might consider splitting 10% of your total investing funds equally between gold bullion and gold mining shares. For gold bullion, I recommend the streetTRACKS Gold Trust (GLD), an exchange-traded fund that buys and stores the gold for you. And for a diversified approach to gold shares, I like the Tocqueville Gold Fund (TGLDX) and the U.S. Global Investors Gold Shares Fund (USERX).

The rest of your funds could be put to work in other natural resource stocks (especially energy-related companies) and Asian markets. In my view, both present great profit opportunities. For specific recommendations, see my Real Wealth Report.

One last thing: I would avoid long-term bonds, most tech stocks, and even most blue-chip U.S. companies right now.

Best wishes,

Larry

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/press.asp?rls_id=742&cat_id=6&

This is some of the speculation I have read that the US is going to take a swipe at Iran. Some speculation has the US having a swipe at Iran this month .

I don't know wether he is Scaremongering, trying to Ramp gold or knows something we don't.

Your guess is as good as mine, I don't know until whatever happens, happens...

 

[billhill]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

For those who seem to be advocating a war with Iran watch this movie => Threads Pt. 1 (subsequent parts available on the site). Made in the 80's, the theme is eerily familiar and topical today... just so there can be no mistake as to what the stakes are.

Good find wayne. I guess what it really shows is there is nothing left to conquer after nuclear war. There are no winners. Just out of interest wayne are you implying by your statement that invading iran may provoke russia or alternatively that we should make sure iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons.

 

[wayneL]

Re: The Middle East - Set for disaster - again

Good find wayne. I guess what it really shows is there is nothing left to conquer after nuclear war. There are no winners. Just out of interest wayne are you implying by your statement that invading iran may provoke russia or alternatively that we should make sure iran cannot obtain nuclear weapons.

*Well of immediate concern is that messing with Iran could escalate into a confrontation with Russia/China as they both have strategic objectives involved. Particularly as this US administration would probably have no hesitation in using nukes and in fact has threatened their use openly.

*If they did use them in Iran, we have to be cognizant of their effect on the civilian population of Iran (Just ordinary Jokers & Jokesses just like us)... not acceptable.

*As far as Iran getting the bomb.... no, I don't want to see Iran with a bomb, but I don't see them unilaterally using it... and we don't know if they intend building one anyway. I am more concerned about the USA and/or Israel using them. (only one country HAS used them so far and we all know who that is)

*The scenario in the movie could only be possible if the big 3 get involved ie usa russia china. Those are the real stakes IMO. A course of action with that as even the remotest possibility is shear lunacy IMO.