The Gillard Government

[drsmith]

Some interesting poll results from Essential Media this week.

For Labor voters (all 33% of them), the man was put forward as the biggest reason (35%) as to why they still vote Labor. For Coalition voters (47%), it's the poor quality of the current Labor government (34%).

This will be very worrying for Labor as it will be the quality of government that will matter most on election day.

2PP hasn't shifted from 54%/46%, but Labor's primary has slipped 2% from 35% to 33% to the Greens. The Green vote though is much less firm than either Labor or Liberal. It's a temporary parking spot for disgruntled Labor voters.

http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

 

[dutchie]

At the next spill and with the consequent resignations/sackings Julia Gillard will promote Anthony Albanese to be the Minister of Industry, Innovation, Climate Change, Science, Research, Tertiary Education, Trade, Minister Assisting the Prime Minister on Asian Century Policy, Regional development, Local government, Resources, Energy, Tourism, Infrastructure and Transport and also Leader of the House.

This is because of the deep well of talent in the Labor Party.

 

[drsmith]

This is because of the deep well of talent in the Labor Party.

Considering the Essential Media polls above, one wonders how Labor will ever govern on it's own again.

Labor's price for Julia Gillard's time in office is that her beloved party has been sold into bondage with the Greens for a very long time.

 

[explod]

Considering the Essential Media polls above, one wonders how Labor will ever govern on it's own again.

Labor's price for Julia Gillard's time in office is that her beloved party has been sold into bondage with the Greens for a very long time.

Yes and if the Libs get in they will have to work with the Greens also.:

Notice the Climate Change thread has gone quiet because there is disquiet. How will Abbott deal with those who have been flooded to their waists 3 times in 12 months.

 

[moXJO]

Considering the Essential Media polls above, one wonders how Labor will ever govern on it's own again.

Labor's price for Julia Gillard's time in office is that her beloved party has been sold into bondage with the Greens for a very long time.

I think libs need to consider this

Main reason for voting labor

I don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister 35%

Thats a lot of protest vote just waiting to be wooed. Shuffling out Hockey and putting Tbull in will grab more of those in the middle.
If Greens were smart they would pull the pin on this government and grab votes from labor.

 

[drsmith]

Yes and if the Libs get in they will have to work with the Greens also.:

They will be much less willing than Labor in adopting an undignified bend-over posture when it comes to the Greens.

I think libs need to consider this

Thats a lot of protest vote just waiting to be wooed. Shuffling out Hockey and putting Tbull in will grab more of those in the middle. .

That would help, but loyalties dictate it's not going to happen at least prior to the election.

Tony Abbott is at least trying to look more prime-ministerial. He obviously needs to broaden his appeal and the Libs as a whole need to be able to articulate a vision and how they plan to achieve it. An unfortunate reality of the politics of today is that it's not yet the appropriate time for the detail.

If Greens were smart they would pull the pin on this government and grab votes from labor.

I thought they had, but the reality is that are now just doing behind the bike shed what they were previously doing in the bedroom.

I think the Greens are quiet happy eroding Labor's voter base, parasitic fashion.

 

[bellenuit]

What's with Albanese? Could he be dumped because of this?

Anthony Albanese and his dangerously poor judgement

http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2013/03/anthony-albanese-and-his-dangerously-poor-judgement-.html

This part is particularly interesting in light of the Rudd-Gillard issue.....

Thursday, 21 March, 2013

On Thursday, 21 March, 2013 I watched with the rest of the nation as Simon Crean put his name forward as Deputy Prime Minister and as he asked Mr Rudd to challenge the PM.

Friday, 22 March, 2013

On Friday evening, 22 March, 2013 I received a message from a senior Federal Parliamentary Labor Party figure that said words to the effect,

“FYI - [NAME REDACTED – a widely respected Federal Labor Parliamentary figure] interviewed Albanese about the Thai establishment – And Albo then quickly relinquished his Deputy PM aspirations”.

 

[dutchie]

What's with Albanese? Could he be dumped because of this?

Anthony Albanese and his dangerously poor judgement

http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2013/03/anthony-albanese-and-his-dangerously-poor-judgement-.html

This part is particularly interesting in light of the Rudd-Gillard issue.....

Thursday, 21 March, 2013

On Thursday, 21 March, 2013 I watched with the rest of the nation as Simon Crean put his name forward as Deputy Prime Minister and as he asked Mr Rudd to challenge the PM.

Friday, 22 March, 2013

On Friday evening, 22 March, 2013 I received a message from a senior Federal Parliamentary Labor Party figure that said words to the effect,

“FYI - [NAME REDACTED – a widely respected Federal Labor Parliamentary figure] interviewed Albanese about the Thai establishment – And Albo then quickly relinquished his Deputy PM aspirations”.

Sleazy Albanesey has to go.
Oh Hang on he's Labor - promote him.

 

[bellenuit]

These appear to be fresh Newspoll figures on Twitter (cannot vouch for their accuracy)

Preferred PM: Gillard 35 (-7) Abbott 43 (+5)

 

[bellenuit]

From The Australian


Labor vote slumps after horror fortnight

JULIA Gillard's personal standing has crashed to a 19-month low and Tony Abbott is clearly back in front as the nation's preferred prime minister after Labor's "appalling" two weeks of political and policy failure.

According to the latest Newspoll survey, Labor's primary vote has slumped five points to a disastrous 30 per cent after a fortnight that ended with the aborted leadership spill and mass cabinet resignations, with one in two voters now siding with the Coalition.

The collapse in the Labor vote has completely wiped out the party's recovery in the second half of last year and has entrenched the prospect of a landslide vote against the government in the election scheduled for September 14.

After taking into account preference flows, federal Labor's support is eight percentage points below its level at the 2010 election, at 42 per cent - a swing that if replicated in September would remove about 30 Labor MPs, including at least five ministers.

The Prime Minister said yesterday she was appalled at Labor's "self-indulgence" during last week's leadership bid, which was brought on after the party's proposed media laws collapsed. She declared she wanted to show "self-belief" and that Labor's "eyes" would be on the "Australian people". But the Newspoll survey, taken exclusively for The Australian on the weekend, shows voter satisfaction with Ms Gillard at the lowest since September 2011.

For the second time in three Newspoll surveys since February, Mr Abbott has a clear lead over Ms Gillard as preferred prime minister 43 per cent to 35 per cent.

The government's primary vote of 30 per cent is the lowest since July last year, while the Coalition's primary vote of 50 per cent is the highest since April last year. Greens' support was virtually unchanged on 10 per cent.

Based on preference flows at the 2010 election, the Coalition's two-party-preferred support rose six points to a 12-month high of 58 per cent as Labor's fell to 42 per cent.

Full details of the Newspoll will be published in The Australian and online on Tuesday.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...horror-fortnight/story-fn59niix-1226605852558

 

[sails]

While it's great news for the coalition, I don't know whether to believe Newspoll anymore. It has been thrashing around wildly for the last few months and seems incredible that voters are having such wild swings. Apart from the Whitlam days, I have never know such consistent voter disenchantment.

The other pollsters have been more steady in their results - perhaps the average of them all is a better guide.

 

[bellenuit]

“FYI - [NAME REDACTED – a widely respected Federal Labor Parliamentary figure] interviewed Albanese about the Thai establishment – And Albo then quickly relinquished his Deputy PM aspirations”.

Interesting comment from the MS Blog on this story. I'm not sure on the dates though.

The issue here results from the following;
1.Albanese (according to him) did not have to resign because while he may have backed Rudd he was not an instigator of the putsch.
2.He was never offered the Deputy Prime Ministership. That was always the property of Crean.
3.Yet the day before the spill he is fronted by a senior figure with the information in the story and quickly relinquishes his aspirations to be Deputy Prime Minister.
If your source is correct Albanese clearly had expectations about the rewards to be offered by Rudd that place him at the centre of the plot and are completely at odds with his own explanations.
Gillard can not have demanded Creans resignation and ignored the part played by Albanese and retain any façade of credibility with her remaining supporters.
Again, if your source is correct it puts the lie to his protestations that he received no sexual services. If that is so why quickly abandon his ambitions.

 

[bellenuit]

Could the Albanese issue be the reason the spill all went wrong?

 

[drsmith]

Could the Albanese issue be the reason the spill all went wrong?

MS has posted a lot of info on this on his blog this evening, and all past beer-o-clock. I just hope someone in Labor hasn't led him up the garden path.

It also puts that Little Lion Man video segment that he posted on Saturday into context.

http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2013/03/what-happened.html

As for Newspoll, I'd suggest its about what Kevin Rudd expected.

 

[bellenuit]

MS has posted a lot of info on this blog this evening, and all past beer-o-clock. I just hope someone in Labor hasn't led him up the garden path.

It also puts that Little Lion Man video segment that he posted on Saturday into context.

Yes it sure does. If MS hasn't been duped, Albanese is toast.

 

[drsmith]

Yes it sure does. If MS hasn't been duped, Albanese is toast.

From MS's site,

[NAME REDACTED - a widely respected Federal Labor Parliamentary figure] interviewed Anthony Albanese on Wednesday, 20 March and put a number of matters associated with the Thai massage establishment to Mr Albanese. Mr Albanese confirmed that he was present at the Thai massage business on Friday, 15 March. He said that he was there for the purpose of receiving a therapeutic massage and not for the purpose of receiving sexual services. Mr Albanese said he did not receive any sexual services..

This would be damaging to both Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd as they both would have had him in senior rolls and was known by the so-called widely respected Federal Labor Parliamentary figure before Simon Crean's public performances on Thursday.

Who's this so-called widely respected Federal Labor Parliamentary figure working for, the Coalition ??

http://www.michaelsmithnews.com/2013/03/anthony-albanese-and-his-dangerously-poor-judgement-.html

If MS hasn't been duped, Labor's internal conflicts have been even more bitter than we have seen publically.

 

[Logique]

From The Australian
Labor vote slumps after horror fortnight.........http://www.theaustralian.com.au/nat...horror-fortnight/story-fn59niix-1226605852558

Here is a link to a summary page of the latest Newspoll (in the Australian): http://resources.news.com.au/files/2013/03/26/1226605/954690-aus-na-file-federal-newspoll.pdf

That 2PP preferred of 42 per cent to 58 per cent is close to identical to the recent WA state election outcome. Labor support is basically down to the "rusted-ons" only, even the Greens have bailed.

Did everyone see the pictures of the new Cabinet. Very evident that a lot of experience and talent has gone from the front bench - this is not reassuring to voters.

 

[Logique]

With friends this toxic, who needs enemies. Psst Marilyn, it's not the 1970's, you're not helping.

The Gillard backlash says more about her detractors
March 26, 2013
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/polit...-detractors-20130325-2gq0f.html#ixzz2OaMZc4Bj

 

[drsmith]

Labor, realising the game is up may well go for a final round of class warfare before it is kicked from office.

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/...e-out-super-raid/story-e6frea7l-1226606148884

 

[Julia]

With friends this toxic, who needs enemies. Psst Marilyn, it's not the 1970's, you're not helping.

Ms Gillard's core of supporters is becoming confined to such as ms Lake, i.e. left wing academics.
Marilyn Lake is professor in history at the University of Melbourne.