The future of energy generation and storage

[Smurf1976]

Interesting imho

Gas field supplying NT's power plants runs into serious production problems

Production from the offshore field which supplies gas for the Top End's electricity generation has decreased by nearly 50 per cent this year.

www.abc.net.au

This one has potentially broader consequences outside the NT.

For the Darwin-Katherine power system there's a partial ability to switch to diesel if need be since about half the installed generating capacity is dual fuel (gas / diesel) whilst the other half is gas only.

Much the same for the separate at Alice Springs system, not all but a fair bit can be switched to diesel if need be.

Where the complexity arises is outside the NT.

Mt Isa gas consumption is roughly 80 TJ / day. Varies a bit but that's a typical figure.

Mt Isa can be supplied from either the NT, from southern Qld, or a combination of both. Since those two pipelines interconnect it's also possible to move gas between Qld and NT via that route albeit in very limited volume.

In short, if supply to Mt Isa from southern Qld exceeds 20 TJ / day then that cuts into the maximum flow rate from Qld to SA of 384 TJ / day. Below 20 TJ / day there's no impact but above it there most certainly is.

So not being able to supply gas from NT to Mt Isa potentially removes about 60 TJ / day of supply to the south-eastern states (NSW, ACT, Vic, SA, Tas collectively) next winter. That's only 3% of their peak day demand but that's 3% in the context of a supply that's already stretched to breaking point, hence the difficulties maintaining gas supply this past winter and the forced switch of some users to diesel.

So it's another straw on the proverbial camel's back that's already close to breaking point.

 

[sptrawler]

About time. I doubt if the Parrot I n NSW will follow suit though unfortunately

I dont think they have any other option. As Ive said, it will take a lot of capital, for very little ROE, the Governments will have to do it. Companies like AGL that already own a lot of infrastructure will take the low hanging fruit, the Governments will have to install the non financially viable stuff.

 

[qldfrog]

I dont think they have any other option. As Ive said, it will take a lot of capital, for very little ROE, the Governments will have to do it. Companies like AGL that already own a lot of infrastructure will take the low hanging fruit, the Governments will have to install the non financially viable stuff.

Our taxes as gift to the world, as the Germans did, privileged to increase the benefits of China companies to a new golden Idol

 

[sptrawler]

Our taxes as gift to the world, as the Germans did, privileged to increase the benefits of China companies to a new golden Idol

Yep all to reduce our 1.8% contribution. Lol

 

[SirRumpole]

Mark McGowan has a smirk all over his face when discussing power prices.

They are expected to rise 2-3% compared with 56% in Eastern States.

We all know the reasons, have they escaped other States and the Feds ?

Labor's budget forecasts energy prices will rise 56 per cent in 18 months. It's a different story in WA

West Australian Premier Mark McGowan says the federal government should look to his state and overseas to find a solution to surging electricity prices, which are forecast to rise 56 per cent in the next 18 months.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Dona Ferentes]

all things are relative....
so a couple of snippets .... and leave it to others to take it away

(courtesy Thoughts from the Frontline )


and this note of realism from someone who is meant to provide solutions

“If you want to go to renewables, you need a 50-year or 75-year plan – you can’t do it in the next 10 years”

- Lindsay Partridge, MD, Brickworks Ltd

 

[sptrawler]

Great post @Dona Ferentes , as Ive said over and over people just dont understand the enormity of the issue and the media are too dumb to report it.

 

[Smurf1976]

Great post @Dona Ferentes , as Ive said over and over people just dont understand the enormity of the issue and the media are too dumb to report it.

I disagree with the notion that it needs to take 50 or 75 years but absolutely it needs a proper plan yes.

Bearing in mind the big problem in Australia isn't that we've failed to plan but rather that not having a plan was a conscious objective, indeed the regulations make any real planning all but impossible beyond a theoretical level. Not having a plan is our plan.

It shouldn't take 75 years though at least not in the Australian context. Not if we have an actual plan and get on with it.

 

[SirRumpole]

Advances in compressed air storage.

 

[SirRumpole]

Bearing in mind the big problem in Australia isn't that we've failed to plan but rather that not having a plan was a conscious objective, indeed the regulations make any real planning all but impossible beyond a theoretical level. Not having a plan is our plan.

That's what happens when we keep electing Conservative governments who believe that "the market will fix it".

That's not to say Labor politicians know any more about the subject, but they were smart enough to set up Infrastructure Australia as an independent body, so maybe they should set up a similar body for the energy industry in particular and follow their advice.

 

[SirRumpole]

That's what happens when we keep electing Conservative governments who believe that "the market will fix it".

That's not to say Labor politicians know any more about the subject, but they were smart enough to set up Infrastructure Australia as an independent body, so maybe they should set up a similar body for the energy industry in particular and follow their advice.

And whatever happened to the Finkel report ?

 

[qldfrog]

And whatever happened to the Finkel report ?

Market does fix it: prevent exploration, investment in fosdil fuel and energy proce goes balastic but wasn't it tge aim:
Maje sure anything fossil becomes unaffordable and bring back the plebes to Dickensian conditions.
So then so called green energy becomes cheaper, the advocates will say i tell you so.
Narket does fix itself but that is in a free market place. Which is not the case in the west, slightly truer in china at the small case level.
There is no market freedom when a gov decides to stop ice cars by a given date or set a goal of stopping coal.
This is state policy economy with the great outcome we saw in the USSR, but left remains left and nowadays socialists/watermelon would make Stalin blush?

 

[Smurf1976]

So far as markets are concerned, a distinction needs to be made between markets as a generic concept and the actual "market" we have, the National Electricity Market, as distinct from the non-market approach of monopoly utilities which preceded it.

Suffice to say the NEM has a rather long list of omissions and flaws which run counter to technical, environmental and even economic objectives. Hence we've ended up with seriously expensive energy that really need not be.

I'll put these two charts up. One for NSW and one for Victoria. Both are for today:

Now you don't need to be an engineer to spot that something happened today. At about midday there's a plunge in Victorian generation and a corresponding rise in generation in NSW.

Now you could be excused for assuming that something terrible had occurred in Victoria, some sort of major breakdown or incident but that, thankfully, supply from NSW as able to keep the lights on.

If only that were true......

What actually happened was this:

102756SETTLEMENTS RESIDUE31/10/2022 12:00:44 PM

[EventId:202210311200_NRM_NSW1_VIC1_started] NEGRES CONSTRAINT NRM_NSW1_VIC1 started operating from 31 October 2022 12:00​

AEMO ELECTRICITY MARKET NOTICE

Issued by Australian Energy Market Operator Ltd at 1200 hrs on 31 October 2022

ACTUAL NEGATIVE SETTLEMENT RESIDUES - NSW to VIC - 31 October 2022.

Electricity Market outcomes have resulted in the accumulation of negative settlement residues that have exceeded the allowable negative residue threshold for the NSW to VIC directional interconnector.

The negative residue constraint set NRM_NSW1_VIC1 commenced operating from 1200 hrs on 31 October 2022.

This constraint set contains an equation with the following interconnectors on the LHS:
VIC1-NSW1

The RHS of the constraint equation may be adjusted to manage residues.


This is an AEMO autogenerated Market Notice.

To explain that, it's nothing to do with electrical engineering and nor is it anything to do with problems with boilers, wind gusts or even something like maintaining flow in a river. In truth it's accounting, yes accounting of the financial kind.

So we fixed an accounting problem by turning off about 1500 MW of wind generation, mostly in Victoria with a bit in SA, and replacing the output by burning gas and running hydro generation in NSW then gradually ramping up coal. Running hydro generation that, I might add, is drawing on a water storage that's presently 45% full and with water being discharged into a catchment that's actually flooding downstream to the point of being a problem in itself.

You won't find an engineer who sees logic in this. Even those who are in the camp that isn't at all concerned about the use of fossil fuels will say that if we've already built wind farms then it's outright crazy to not use them.

Therein lies the reason mere mention of the word "market" tends to be met with rolling eyes and derision by those who see this stuff routinely. The actual market we have is shockingly inefficient, having been captured by an assortment of ideologues who've taken it a very long way from the fundamentals of both engineering and economics.

That wasn't an isolated incident and to be clear neither AEMO nor any of the affected companies have done anything wrong. Just enforcing the rules as drawn up by others....

Now please don't anyone tell me I should be shivering in the dark to save on emissions. Not whilst this nonsense goes on.

 

[basilio]

Excellent analysis in The Guardian on the future of energy generation and storage. Echoes much of what Smurf has explained and skewers yet again the poisonous,lying, self serving dribble that has been the cornerstone of Liberal/National/Fossil Fool industry talking points for donkeys years.

Well, well worth a full read. I have clipped a relevant section below.

David Osmond, a Canberra-based engineer with the global energy developer Windlab, is among those with a markedly different, evidence-based take. For more than a year, he has been posting weekly results from a live simulation tracking what would happen in Australia’s main electricity grid if it relied primarily on renewable energy.

Using a live stream of electricity data from Opennem, he adjusted inputs to see what would happen if there was enough wind and solar energy to supply 60% and 45% of demand respectively. He added enough short-term storage, likely to be in the form of batteries, to supply average demand for five hours.

The results are encouraging. They suggest close to 100% of demand – 98.9% over a 61-week period – could be delivered by solar and wind backed by existing hydro power and the five hours of storage. Nearly 90% of demand was met directly by renewable energy and 10% had to pass through storage. Achieving it would require a major expansion of transmission, as proposed by Labor under its Rewiring the Nation policy.

The 1.1% shortfall mostly came when it was less sunny in late autumn and winter. Other technology would be needed to fill that hole. Osmond believes for now that would probably be fast-starting gas-fired power plants that are already connected to the grid, don’t run most of the time and can be called on quickly. There was nothing to suggest new ones were needed.

It means a small amount of fossil fuel generation remaining in the grid, but less gas would be burned than now and, crucially, no coal power would be required. In the longer term, the backup could possibly come from cleaner sources – probably pumped hydro, maybe hydrogen or biofuels. None of these necessarily make economic sense the way solar and wind do – it is hard to justify a plant that would hardly ever be used – but could be needed in the context of the grid. An alternative would be to over-build solar and wind so there was always enough capacity online.

By Osmond’s admission, this is a simplified model that assumes, for example, that electricity transmission links between regions can be delivered efficiently. No one should assume that the transition will be straightforward. The point is the technology already exists, and is comparatively cheap. From there it is a matter of design, engineering and, importantly, cost management.

Rather than an endlessly reheated nuclear debate, politicians should be powered by the evidence | Adam Morton

A renewable-dominated system is comfortably the cheapest form of power generation, according to research

www.theguardian.com

 

[qldfrog]

So far as markets are concerned, a distinction needs to be made between markets as a generic concept and the actual "market" we have, the National Electricity Market, as distinct from the non-market approach of monopoly utilities which preceded it.

Suffice to say the NEM has a rather long list of omissions and flaws which run counter to technical, environmental and even economic objectives. Hence we've ended up with seriously expensive energy that really need not be.

I'll put these two charts up. One for NSW and one for Victoria. Both are for today:

View attachment 148681


View attachment 148682

Now you don't need to be an engineer to spot that something happened today. At about midday there's a plunge in Victorian generation and a corresponding rise in generation in NSW.

Now you could be excused for assuming that something terrible had occurred in Victoria, some sort of major breakdown or incident but that, thankfully, supply from NSW as able to keep the lights on.

If only that were true......

What actually happened was this:



To explain that, it's nothing to do with electrical engineering and nor is it anything to do with problems with boilers, wind gusts or even something like maintaining flow in a river. In truth it's accounting, yes accounting of the financial kind.

So we fixed an accounting problem by turning off about 1500 MW of wind generation, mostly in Victoria with a bit in SA, and replacing the output by burning gas and running hydro generation in NSW then gradually ramping up coal. Running hydro generation that, I might add, is drawing on a water storage that's presently 45% full and with water being discharged into a catchment that's actually flooding downstream to the point of being a problem in itself.

You won't find an engineer who sees logic in this. Even those who are in the camp that isn't at all concerned about the use of fossil fuels will say that if we've already built wind farms then it's outright crazy to not use them.

Therein lies the reason mere mention of the word "market" tends to be met with rolling eyes and derision by those who see this stuff routinely. The actual market we have is shockingly inefficient, having been captured by an assortment of ideologues who've taken it a very long way from the fundamentals of both engineering and economics.

That wasn't an isolated incident and to be clear neither AEMO nor any of the affected companies have done anything wrong. Just enforcing the rules as drawn up by others....

Now please don't anyone tell me I should be shivering in the dark to save on emissions. Not whilst this nonsense goes on.

And we can also agree this is in no way a free market issue?
What a shamble..

 

[Smurf1976]

And we can also agree this is in no way a free market issue?
What a shamble..

Yep.

It wouldn't happen in a truly free market but at the other end of the scale a monopoly utility wouldn't do things to punish itself either.

Regardless of the arguments for or against building any particular form of generation, if it has actually been built and it's of a type that costs practically nothing to run then it's crazy to not fully utilise it.

We could achieve a significant improvement, both in terms of economics and in terms of natural resource use and the environment, simply by making optimum use of what we've already got in terms of physical generation and transmission. That it doesn't happen is simply down to politics and bureaucracy getting in the way of both engineering and sensible economics, a situation that frustrates many.

 

[qldfrog]

Yep.

It wouldn't happen in a truly free market but at the other end of the scale a monopoly utility wouldn't do things to punish itself either.

Regardless of the arguments for or against building any particular form of generation, if it has actually been built and it's of a type that costs practically nothing to run then it's crazy to not fully utilise it.

We could achieve a significant improvement, both in terms of economics and in terms of natural resource use and the environment, simply by making optimum use of what we've already got in terms of physical generation and transmission. That it doesn't happen is simply down to politics and bureaucracy getting in the way of both engineering and sensible economics, a situation that frustrates many.

Fully agree, while i consider this mad rush to "green energy" crazy, once installed and producing for free, use it.The least we can do.
I am afraid that madness might even come to the consumer/ retail side with the idea of variable feed back pricing.
I produce more than i use with solar and as is, the economics of sending power back to the grid are borderline due to feed to grid daily fee.
I moved in a new place with solar installed.there is no way the ROI is here so if moving to a new place,an existing solar system is no worthwhile $ bonus. Unless you double up to go fully offgrid/battery...
Not exactly what it should be imho as we should see people not repairing systems or turning the option off

 

[SirRumpole]

That wasn't an isolated incident and to be clear neither AEMO nor any of the affected companies have done anything wrong. Just enforcing the rules as drawn up by others....

Do you think the rule book should be thrown away and have a free for all ?

Or , we should have rules but the current rules are not appropriate ?

 

[mullokintyre]

Do you think the rule book should be thrown away and have a free for all ?

Or , we should have rules but the current rules are not appropriate ?

All will be solved if they let me make the rules.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Another of those instances where sometimes the realities in life can overturn your best intentions.
From ABC News

The WA Premier has admitted it is likely the state will be forced to import coal from New South Wales to keep its lights on over the coming years.

Key points:​

• Mark McGowan says sourcing enough coal will be a challenge
• Mr McGowan says coal will be needed for another eight years
• There are growing concerns over the state's electricity grid

Concerns about the state's coal supply have been steadily growing, with receivers appointed to one of the state's main coal mines in September.

The following month, the government admitted it would be shutting down one of the state's coal-fired power stations for three months "to further build its coal stockpiles".

Coal needed until 2030: Premier​

Premier Mark McGowan said finding enough coal would continue to be a challenge as the state's power grid transitions away from coal and closes its remaining coal-fired plants by 2030.

Mick