The future of Australian property prices

[divs4ever]

No I delivered the free local paper, delivered pamphlets, and also picked fruit.

No, I don't think I want to work as an investment advisor, that requires me to go back to school, and then get a job hahaha.

no fruit-picking for me ( for pay ) mowed lawns instead

same here on financial adviser , hard enough to give good advice to the guy in the mirror

assessing someone else's needs ( without conflicted interest ) no thanks

 

[Value Collector]

no fruit-picking for me ( for pay ) mowed lawns instead

same here on financial adviser , hard enough to give good advice to the guy in the mirror

assessing someone else's needs ( without conflicted interest ) no thanks

I mowed the home lawn to keep my parents happy, so they would give me money to go out with my friends on the weekends, while I invested my own money

 

[mullokintyre]

Building aprovals continue to fall, despite the the jawboning by various government ministers.
From Evil Murdoch press

It was only in Ausgust last year that the feds promised to build 1.2 million homes over five years.



At the rate above, they are going at about 50%.
Someones going to have to pull their finger out.
Mic

 

[sptrawler]

Building aprovals continue to fall, despite the the jawboning by various government ministers.
From Evil Murdoch press
View attachment 172112
It was only in Ausgust last year that the feds promised to build 1.2 million homes over five years.
View attachment 172113


At the rate above, they are going at about 50%.
Someones going to have to pull their finger out.
Mic

There are apparently some super funds that are going to stump up funding for social housing, so that should help.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.ifminvestors.com/en-au/news-and-insights/media-centre/super-collaboration-set-to-inject-funds-into-affordable-housing-delivering-returns-for-members/&ved=2ahUKEwivq7HItdqEAxUdkVYBHe_UBgIQFnoECCcQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0sXSSeAxN1wgZL5bMFaRS7

 

[qldfrog]

There are apparently some super funds that are going to stump up funding for social housing, so that should help.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&opi=89978449&url=https://www.ifminvestors.com/en-au/news-and-insights/media-centre/super-collaboration-set-to-inject-funds-into-affordable-housing-delivering-returns-for-members/&ved=2ahUKEwivq7HItdqEAxUdkVYBHe_UBgIQFnoECCcQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0sXSSeAxN1wgZL5bMFaRS7

So all is good, the super gained in the last decades by working Australians can be used to build rabbit hutches to house the millions of new migrants on welfare and food stamps, offering amazing returns and a promising retirement for the future grey nomads,
who will indeed spend their retirement in mobile homes and caravans but stuck in trailer parks..
Last few lines a proof for the next Mad Max Australia 2050

 

[mullokintyre]

From AFR


Is a reflection on both Oz property prices, and on Chinese economic circumstances.
Mick

 

[TimeISmoney]

The writing is on the wall for property prices.

​

'Unfair' boomer tax: Landlord reveals 'nightmare' that's forcing him to sell four properties​

A landlord has revealed the hellish reality of owning multiple properties in Australia during a cost-of-living crisis, as an expert warns many property owners are doing it tougher than you might think.
Craig Doyle has four investment properties with his wife and they were hoping they would cover them in retirement. However, it has become an absolute nightmare for the 61-year-old kitchen-supplies salesman.
Doyle and his wife used their superannuation 10 years ago to purchase the four properties but they’re now having to sell them because they have been a huge drain on their wallets.

“People say, ‘You own five houses’, but I don’t. I own five debts,” Doyle told The Australian Financial Review. “They are killing me, and they are reversing my ability to retire.

“I’m selling purely to get my money back and put it back in super. It’s too expensive to own investment properties here.”

Doyle has hit back at Aussies who think landlords are just money-hungry Baby Boomers trying to squeeze as much cash as possible out of tenants.

“We’re the ones being demonised. It’s unfair that the government is taxing my generation,” he said.

 

[Knobby22]

The writing is on the wall for property prices.

​

'Unfair' boomer tax: Landlord reveals 'nightmare' that's forcing him to sell four properties​

A landlord has revealed the hellish reality of owning multiple properties in Australia during a cost-of-living crisis, as an expert warns many property owners are doing it tougher than you might think.
Craig Doyle has four investment properties with his wife and they were hoping they would cover them in retirement. However, it has become an absolute nightmare for the 61-year-old kitchen-supplies salesman.
Doyle and his wife used their superannuation 10 years ago to purchase the four properties but they’re now having to sell them because they have been a huge drain on their wallets.

“People say, ‘You own five houses’, but I don’t. I own five debts,” Doyle told The Australian Financial Review. “They are killing me, and they are reversing my ability to retire.

“I’m selling purely to get my money back and put it back in super. It’s too expensive to own investment properties here.”

Doyle has hit back at Aussies who think landlords are just money-hungry Baby Boomers trying to squeeze as much cash as possible out of tenants.

“We’re the ones being demonised. It’s unfair that the government is taxing my generation,” he said.

I knew a builder in 88 who was my friend's Dad who owned with some real estate agents 20 houses. Lost everything.

This Craig Doyle bought 5 houses. He could have bought 2 or 3 but he stretched himself.

Its called capitalism. Big risk, big gains, big losses. No pity.

A bit of a correction would be good for the next generation.

 

[Smurf1976]

A bit of a correction would be good for the next generation.

Totally agree but I do wonder about broader economic consequences eg banks.

Bearing in mind that chart is inflation adjusted, the "correction" to get back to sensible valuation needs to be one that most people would refer to as a crash. That won't be without broader consequences.

It does need to happen though. Either that or it's going to eat the rest of the economy and society in my view.

 

[Value Collector]

Totally agree but I do wonder about broader economic consequences eg banks.

Bearing in mind that chart is inflation adjusted, the "correction" to get back to sensible valuation needs to be one that most people would refer to as a crash. That won't be without broader consequences.

It does need to happen though. Either that or it's going to eat the rest of the economy and society in my view.

What sort of houses are used for the chart, eg does it take into consideration increasing average density?

I mean, in a growing city houses on 1/4 acre blocks built in the 1980’s will outpace inflation due to the population growth increasing demand for land, but the cost of dwellings shouldn’t grow at the same rate due to increasing Density.

 

[divs4ever]

Totally agree but I do wonder about broader economic consequences eg banks.

Bearing in mind that chart is inflation adjusted, the "correction" to get back to sensible valuation needs to be one that most people would refer to as a crash. That won't be without broader consequences.

It does need to happen though. Either that or it's going to eat the rest of the economy and society in my view.

i agree it needs to happen , but would suggest it should have happened some years back , and that delay will cause extra pain to some ( especially if they have come off fixed rate loans recently )

the problem will be if the consequences look to be significant ( endanger the precious 4 ) the issue will be papered over again and not solved ( ala the GFC )

are the various governments willing to create a genuine solution , i remain cynical on that

 

[sptrawler]

The only way to stop the ponzi spiral, is to break the chain, where they break it remains to be seen.
As @Smurf1976 said break the chain at the wrong spot and it all comes crashing down, that would have catostrophic consequences, so it isn't an easy fix.
Personally I think it is just another example of a failed privatisation model, that incentivised private sector investment in providing social housing, then as always everyone milks it to death and we find ourselves here.
As happens with most Govt(taxpayer) funded gravy trains, everyone works out very quickly how to rort it.

 

[farmerge]

The only way to stop the ponzi spiral, is to break the chain, where they break it remains to be seen.
As @Smurf1976 said break the chain at the wrong spot and it all comes crashing down, that would have catostrophic consequences, so it isn't an easy fix.
Personally I think it is just another example of a failed privatisation model, that incentivised private sector investment in providing social housing, then as always everyone milks it to death and we find ourselves here.
As happens with most Govt(taxpayer) funded gravy trains, everyone works out very quickly how to rort it.

You know, I would love to have a "Gravy Train" stop nearby to me, so I could get that little bit extra.

 

[TimeISmoney]

The only way to stop the ponzi spiral, is to break the chain, where they break it remains to be seen.
As @Smurf1976 said break the chain at the wrong spot and it all comes crashing down, that would have catostrophic consequences, so it isn't an easy fix.
Personally I think it is just another example of a failed privatisation model, that incentivised private sector investment in providing social housing, then as always everyone milks it to death and we find ourselves here.
As happens with most Govt(taxpayer) funded gravy trains, everyone works out very quickly how to rort it.

I think in many instances the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, if it were this easy all these housing advocates would be pumping out cheap housing left, right, and center.

My mum was a single parent in the 70s and 80s and we rented the lower flat of our house on the outskirts of a housing commission estate, one tenant left the heater on for 6 weeks straight, others punched holes in everydoors, DV every second day with some., another one used to borrow all our milk and sugar, $5 a week in phone calls because they didn't have a phone. Motorbikes were ridden in the house, and sanitary napkins were pushed down the s bend of the toilet. The govt isn't stupid when it comes to saving money, they know the real cost of this type of housing.

 

[Knobby22]

I think in many instances the grass is greener on the other side of the fence, if it were this easy all these housing advocates would be pumping out cheap housing left, right, and center.

My mum was a single parent in the 70s and 80s and we rented the lower flat of our house on the outskirts of a housing commission estate, one tenant left the heater on for 6 weeks straight, others punched holes in everydoors, DV every second day with some., another one used to borrow all our milk and sugar, $5 a week in phone calls because they didn't have a phone. Motorbikes were ridden in the house, and sanitary napkins were pushed down the s bend of the toilet. The govt isn't stupid when it comes to saving money, they know the real cost of this type of housing.

What part of Australia was this?
Flamington flats were not like that.
Mainly immigrants who saved to get out asap or old ladies. Though of course not always perfect.

 

[qldfrog]

Totally agree but I do wonder about broader economic consequences eg banks.

Bearing in mind that chart is inflation adjusted, the "correction" to get back to sensible valuation needs to be one that most people would refer to as a crash. That won't be without broader consequences.

It does need to happen though. Either that or it's going to eat the rest of the economy and society in my view.

Just to note that in many modern European countries, and for decades, not just recently, the average citizen is a tenant, the size of the average house or unit is probably half of the current Australian ones.
So current RE prices are not exactly crazy per sqr meter
It seems that the European "model": social welfare, public transport , shoecase size cars, high taxation and immigration is the dream for 50% of voters, so we got what we deserve don't we ?

 

[farmerge]

Just to note that in many modern European countries, and for decades, not just recently, the average citizen is a tenant, the size of the average house or unit is probably half of the current Australian ones.
So current RE prices are not exactly crazy per sqr meter
It seems that the European "model": social welfare, public transport , shoecase size cars, high taxation and immigration is the dream for 50% of voters, so we got what we deserve don't we ?

That's immigration for you

 

[TimeISmoney]

What part of Australia was this?
Flamington flats were not like that.
Mainly immigrants who saved to get out asap or old ladies. Though of course not always perfect.

Southwest of Brisbane, I think it was one of the biggest housing commissions in Qld in the 60s and 70s.

What used to happen is that they would get evicted from the housing commission and then go private. Then they would play up so that you would evict them and they could apply for public housing again after a few months. The public housing here must have cost them millions back in the day, they used to gut complete houses in some instances because they were so damaged.

 

[farmerge]

Southwest of Brisbane, I think it was one of the biggest housing commissions in Qld in the 60s and 70s.

What used to happen is that they would get evicted from the housing commission and then go private. Then they would play up so that you would evict them and they could apply for public housing again after a few months. The public housing here must have cost them millions back in the day, they used to gut complete houses in some instances because they were so damaged.

These sort of suburbian rats don't deserve a roof over their heads, a mia mia would be good enough.

 

[Warr87]

I knew a builder in 88 who was my friend's Dad who owned with some real estate agents 20 houses. Lost everything.

This Craig Doyle bought 5 houses. He could have bought 2 or 3 but he stretched himself.

Its called capitalism. Big risk, big gains, big losses. No pity.

A bit of a correction would be good for the next generation.View attachment 172447

I agree. 5 obviously stretched him thin. It's an interesting argument to cry poor while you bought 5 houses. He obviously had to demontsrate some ability to service the loans. I don't have any pitty.