The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

strange it seems to be WA specific , i would have thought that piping ( or similar ) would have been used on the East Coast as well with equally disappointing results

i hold several REITs, development/construction companies and am watching for contagion ( remember the ink batts debacle ?)

From memory the manufactured is blaming the installers, the installers are blaming the manufacturer.
It is strange that we are using a product that was banned in another country, for exactly the same problem, then again it sounds par for course for us. Lol

 

[wayneL]

A few dramas happening in W.A, houses fitted with plastic water pipes are having a huge failure rate and no one wants to take responsibility.
Apparently the product has been banned from use in the U.S since 1990's.

WA homeowners kept in dark on rights over plumbing disaster

Thousands of WA homeowners plagued by devastating water bursts and leaks from a defective plumbing product have been kept in the dark on their rights to full replacement of the faulty piping.

thewest.com.au

I have had to fix several broken plastic pipes on our Ponderosa. Any slight tap when you're doing other stuff and there is an instant fountain.... Brittle AF.

 

[JohnDe]

The current property prices in my city are crazy. Prices are increasing 1% per month, listings are sold within 2 to 3 weeks.

I keep saying that this won't last much longer, there is going to be a bust. But 3 years on and the prices keep going up, the buyers keep coming, and the banks keep lending.

 

[sptrawler]

The current property prices in my city are crazy. Prices are increasing 1% per month, listings are sold within 2 to 3 weeks.

I keep saying that this won't last much longer, there is going to be a bust. But 3 years on and the prices keep going up, the buyers keep coming, and the banks keep lending.

Meanwhile capital raisings and IPO's can't get off the ground, why would you invest in a business, when you can just buy a house rent it for a few years and double your money.
It's a no brainer.
Keep bringing the hordes in, kaching.
Wish I was 40 years younger, I'd be FIFO with 2 IP's on the go.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Wish I was 40 years younger, I'd be FIFO with 2 IP's on the go.

I have a colleague with 4 + PPOR.

Wild stuff.

 

[dyna]

Won't be wild for much longer.
Labor and the Greens are surely gonna kill it dead with a ban on neg gearing. It's just a matter of time and they won't even have to take it to the next election.
Without the tax deduction on income tax , the numbers just don't add up for sound investment in R. E. . This is not complicated maths . Anyone with half a brain will soon twig to it and that will be the end of it for any aspirational worker wishing to get ahead through property investment. So , who's left to take up the slack in rental housing ?
Unless pollies heavy the Industry Super funds , then there's ...no one outside of State government 's public housing .
Who will want to live in a shoebox ?
Oh yes, the 1/4 million immigrants . Keep the C.F.M.E.U. Labor mates happy , at least .

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Won't be wild for much longer.
Labor and the Greens are surely gonna kill it dead with a ban on neg gearing. It's just a matter of time and they won't even have to take it to the next election.
Without the tax deduction on income tax , the numbers just don't add up for sound investment in R. E. . This is not complicated maths . Anyone with half a brain will soon twig to it and that will be the end of it for any aspirational worker wishing to get ahead through property investment. So , who's left to take up the slack in rental housing ?
Unless pollies heavy the Industry Super funds , then there's ...no one outside of State government 's public housing .
Who will want to live in a shoebox ?
Oh yes, the 1/4 million immigrants . Keep the C.F.M.E.U. Labor mates happy , at least .

You seem very angry about everything, perhaps you should get off the internet and go for a walk or find someone to give you a hug.

I'm sure that if the Liberals get back in power they will definitely stop immigration, destroy the unions and fix all the problems with rental supply that were caused by the Labor and the Greens being in power all these years once the housing market is returned to the sound and responsible investment it's been thanks to reinstatement of negative gearing, people can go back to having 4 investment properties.

Until then you'll just have to wait.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes the ups and downs of negative gearing in recent history, fact is actually stranger than fiction, it was stopped, then started, then enhanced.

The concept of negative gearing has been around in some form for a long time. Bob Hawke abolished it in 1985, though re-introduced it in 1987 for the stated reasons of increasing the supply of housing while keeping rents down. But rather than this outcome, it turned out negative gearing only encouraged many to undertake a speculative buy-up of the housing market. Despite Hawke’s claims, all this ended up doing was to reduce housing affordability and increase the wealth of the largest speculators by creating a tax loophole.

In 1999, the Howard Government exacerbated the situation by removing any limitations on negative gearing and by changing the capital gains regime to offer a 50 per cent discount. This opened the gate to investors to run investment properties at a loss, claiming that loss off their taxable income, then selling the property for a profit. In 2011, it was estimated that this tax loophole had cost the Government around $5 billion a year in foregone income tax revenue — in 2015, it was estimated to be about $11.7 billion. Who knows what it is now?

 

[qldfrog]

Yes the ups and downs of negative gearing in recent history, fact is actually stranger than fiction, it was stopped, then started, then enhanced.

The concept of negative gearing has been around in some form for a long time. Bob Hawke abolished it in 1985, though re-introduced it in 1987 for the stated reasons of increasing the supply of housing while keeping rents down. But rather than this outcome, it turned out negative gearing only encouraged many to undertake a speculative buy-up of the housing market. Despite Hawke’s claims, all this ended up doing was to reduce housing affordability and increase the wealth of the largest speculators by creating a tax loophole.

In 1999, the Howard Government exacerbated the situation by removing any limitations on negative gearing and by changing the capital gains regime to offer a 50 per cent discount. This opened the gate to investors to run investment properties at a loss, claiming that loss off their taxable income, then selling the property for a profit. In 2011, it was estimated that this tax loophole had cost the Government around $5 billion a year in foregone income tax revenue — in 2015, it was estimated to be about $11.7 billion. Who knows what it is now?

isnt it one sided?
I disagree with you heartily there, and why is it a tax loohole?? reading too much of their ABC?
Because if you remember well, inflation indexation of capital gain was removed as well, something many will realise painfully now.


As soon as I can get rid of my key properties here, I can not wait for seeing the result of the negative gearing removal and the shitshow, from what I can read, few are the people complaining about it using it for RE IP so they have no idea on how subsidized tenants are by the landlords..in a way, neg gearing is a contribution from the government to subsidized housing
How much do you think it will cost for the government to create public housing when private investors bail out, cause they will..see what is happening in qld after just a few measures anti landlord minded..
No one, I repeat, no one in his right mind would purchase an IP in Australia in 2024, with the aim of renting it.
As a result, we will end up with either collapse of RE prices..and gov revenue, or on going RE bubble...but with empty properties..like in china, and many other places where IP are just a buy resale play, but where you do not bother renting.
In all cases, the number of properties to rent will crash, and in no way increase for the millions the globalists (ALP/LNP) want to see coming here

 

[divs4ever]

From memory the manufactured is blaming the installers, the installers are blaming the manufacturer.
It is strange that we are using a product that was banned in another country, for exactly the same problem, then again it sounds par for course for us. Lol

i thought the claim was the product had been 'improved '

personally internal piping in a house/unit that is not copper ( especially for hot fluids ) is just asking for trouble , but here we are

( it is not as though there are no copper mines in Australia either )

 

[Value Collector]

Yes the ups and downs of negative gearing in recent history, fact is actually stranger than fiction, it was stopped, then started, then enhanced.

The concept of negative gearing has been around in some form for a long time. Bob Hawke abolished it in 1985, though re-introduced it in 1987 for the stated reasons of increasing the supply of housing while keeping rents down. But rather than this outcome, it turned out negative gearing only encouraged many to undertake a speculative buy-up of the housing market. Despite Hawke’s claims, all this ended up doing was to reduce housing affordability and increase the wealth of the largest speculators by creating a tax loophole.

In 1999, the Howard Government exacerbated the situation by removing any limitations on negative gearing and by changing the capital gains regime to offer a 50 per cent discount. This opened the gate to investors to run investment properties at a loss, claiming that loss off their taxable income, then selling the property for a profit. In 2011, it was estimated that this tax loophole had cost the Government around $5 billion a year in foregone income tax revenue — in 2015, it was estimated to be about $11.7 billion. Who knows what it is now?

Negative gearing is available to investors in any asset class. All it it means is that at that moment your interest payments are higher than you income from that asset.

You could take out a loan to buy shares and be negatively geared.

I don’t personally use Negative gearing, But if we were to get rid of it we would have to replace it with something else to account for the losses investors often make in the early years of their investments.

capital gains tax discount is a fair way to handle Capital gains tax, especially for shares, where the capital gains are normally caused by the company reinvesting its earnings which it has already paid company tax on.

In other countries they handle it in other ways, for example in the USA capital gains tax is limited to 15%, but you have to do something. Up until 1985 Australia didn’t even charge tax on capital gains.

 

[Value Collector]

i thought the claim was the product had been 'improved '

personally internal piping in a house/unit that is not copper ( especially for hot fluids ) is just asking for trouble , but here we are

( it is not as though there are no copper mines in Australia either )

Copper pipes spring leaks after they get to a certain age to, they thin and pitt over time, I think 50 to 70 years is their design life, Plastic PVC is meant to last 100 years.

 

[Warr87]

The current property prices in my city are crazy. Prices are increasing 1% per month, listings are sold within 2 to 3 weeks.

I keep saying that this won't last much longer, there is going to be a bust. But 3 years on and the prices keep going up, the buyers keep coming, and the banks keep lending.

I remember telling my brother this about 10yrs ago. It was the reason why I was avoiding the market at that time. Who knows how long it'll continue before it bursts. lol

 

[JohnDe]

Looks like it is the Victorian's causing high real-estate prices in other states, as they move their investment dollars, and some relocate their families.

My ex-brother in-law works for a large multinational home builder, he told me that most of his clients are from Victoria and NSW, building investment properties in SA & WA.

As well as the property tax, the Victorian government in 2023 began a desperate series of new taxes it justified for all sorts of reasons rather than the true one — “we don’t have enough money and our astronomical debt is now costing us a fortune”.

The taxes were ingenious and aimed at business. They included a solar and wind tax on farmers; a container tax on importers and exporters; an education tax on private schools; a tourism tax via Airbnb homes and a health tax on general practitioners. They even tried an electric car tax but it was thrown out by the High Court.

All these taxes are passed on to consumers and hit Victorians in every sphere. History tells us such taxing sprees often occur when voters elect a government which hires large numbers of public servants but does not have sufficient talent, skills or money to undertake its agenda.

When such governments attack property they attack the heart of community wealth and confidence.

Victoria already had a land tax on second homes including holiday homes. But, the government dramatically increased these taxes, subject to a complex series of rules.

Large numbers of people had properties which fell outside the exception rules so were taxed extremely heavily, adding to their council rates, maintenance and interest.

Those with more expensive second homes on the Mornington Peninsula, Surf Coast and other areas concluded “enough is enough” and large numbers put their property on the market. Not only did their expensive homes fall in value, but many couldn’t be sold.

This had a chilling impact across the Victorian landscape because affluent Victorians heard the dismay of their friends and realised what they had counted as a stable asset was no longer saleable at anything like previous prices.

Meanwhile, what compounds the impact of the Victorian property, health, solar, wind, education, tourism and container taxes is the feeling of hopelessness. There may be more taxes in the pipeline.

The ALP in Victoria is funded mainly by the CFMEU and the union can see a decline in major projects, so demanded a long term source of employment — whatever the cost.

The government has chosen a $120bn-plus so-called “underground suburban train to nowhere” project.

Victoria is sadly headed towards more borrowing and taxing. Federal intervention may be required.

Victorians are cutting back and it’ll be a nightmare for the RBA

 

[IFocus]

Without the tax deduction on income tax , the numbers just don't add up for sound investment in R. E. .

When I was a property investor the mantra was the numbers have to add up long before you get to negative gearing, never make an investment based on negative gearing that was only ever the hook used by sprukers.

 

[Belli]

When I was a property investor the mantra was the numbers have to add up long before you get to negative gearing, never make an investment based on negative gearing that was only ever the hook used by sprukers.

That brings back memories. It was in the days when income above $50k was taxed at 48.5%. A person I worked with was all excited about getting an IP and having a $6k tax deduction. At their income level it meant they dropped at tax bracket and despite getting a tax refund they effectively lost of $4k or so. The look on their face when someone (it wasn't me) pointed that out was interesting to say the least.

 

[Knobby22]

Copper pipes spring leaks after they get to a certain age to, they thin and pitt over time, I think 50 to 70 years is their design life, Plastic PVC is meant to last 100 years.

View attachment 170718
View attachment 170717

PVC piping gets UV damaged.

 

[Knobby22]

That brings back memories. It was in the days when income above $50k was taxed at 48.5%. A person I worked with was all excited about getting an IP and having a $6k tax deduction. At their income level it meant they dropped at tax bracket and despite getting a tax refund they effectively lost of $4k or so. The look on their face when someone (it wasn't me) pointed that out was interesting to say the least.

We need investment in new housing and that is what should be encouraged with the tax breaks.

Many nations including Canada, USA and UK have limitations that we don't have.

From wiki
In principle, the US federal tax does not allow the transfer of income streams.[14] In general, taxpayers can only deduct expenses of renting property from their rental income, as renting property out is usually considered a passive activity.

 

[wayneL]

PVC piping gets UV damaged.

And this has been my issue on the Ponderosa. Many of the risers to the outside taps are PVC. I have no idea how old they are but one slight touch when I am working around them and they just shatter.... Obviously these are all exposed to sunlight.

 

[Knobby22]

And this has been my issue on the Ponderosa. Many of the risers to the outside taps are PVC. I have no idea how old they are but one slight touch when I am working around them and they just shatter.... Obviously these are all exposed to sunlight.

When I specify electrical conduit, it is always steel galvanised if outside.