The future of Australian property prices

Average citizens are starting to complain, this is another headache for the govt

Dark1975 said:

I agree,

But I look at not housing prices rising is the devaluing of the $dollar, just takes more useless dollars to be the same asset in the future ,
Hence the type of deflationary/ inflation discussed,
The dollar devalues over time as more stimulus or printing of money continues.

Hence a hyperthical debate in the future of a reset.
Like nixon in 1972 took gold of the standard of curriences , I think the governments around the world are setting up quite quickly
Digital cuttencies.
Hence ripple / XRP are in court with SEC,
Its no secret that SEC needs a large case against the second oldest cypto 'XRP to set new laws in place for the digital / crypto space.
People can belive what they want with xrp being a security, but i think the question is that SEC is setting forth a case to in act new laws to better move in to digital currencies.
XRP are on there last stage with testing currencency transfers with the central bank.
The chess pieces are set.
So i think a Reset is a possible outcome.
I've actually moved 30% of my capital from stock to the cypto markets.
I think crypto / defi coins are still in its infancy stage like google / amazon was 20 years ago.

Maybe should have moved this topic in curriences ?

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Yeah but look at which assets have increased faster than the currency has been debased. It's basically only housing (and if you break that down further, it's actually just the land) that's more expensive in real terms.

What should happen in a properly functioning market is that we see DEFLATION as we constantly figure out more efficient (cheaper) ways of doing/producing stuff. And yet, the cost of living keeps getting more expensive.

Hence, fuckery being afoot.

againsthegrain said:

Average citizens are starting to complain, this is another headache for the govt

$100k savings ‘impossible’ to buy house

Despite having $100,000 in savings, Amy Kitts and her husband Ben feel “hopeless” about their dream of ever owning a house in Sydney and say they are priced out of the market, despite their huge chunk of money.

www.news.com.au

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Nah, the government's run by boomers for boomers and they haven't cared since the 90's.

In John Howard's immortal words, "Nobody's ever complained to me about their house price going up".

The only thing we're likely to see are home buyer "assistance" packages (paid for by cutting spending somewhere else) that do nothing but pump the price by whatever the amount of the assistance package. The only silver lining that can possibly come from it is that they might actually cut something that needs to be cut in order to pay for it (I'm looking at you, universities).

over9k said:

Yeah but look at which assets have increased faster than the currency has been debased. It's basically only housing (and if you break that down further, it's actually just the land) that's more expensive in real terms.

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Thus far agreed.

More recently though, well I'm definitely starting to see prices of consumer items starting to rise.

Supermarkets it's not most things going up, just random products but all of a sudden they jump significantly. Specials and discount brands seem most affected.

At Bunnings I bought a particular item two years ago for $299 and had thoughts of buying a second. Had a look whilst I was there today to see if they still have them - yes they do, exact same item now $449 so that's a 50% price rise.

Some random things I've bought online have also been far more costly than a comparable item would previously have been. Not 10% more, it's more like 5 or 10 times the price. A $2 item is now $15 etc.

It's not affecting most products yet but I'm certainly starting to notice random individual items jumping in price. It seems to be extending beyond housing now.

over9k said:

the government's run by boomers for boomers

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The Prime Minister and every state Premier except Tasmania are all too young to be Boomers.

Even in Tassie, Peter Gutwein scrapes into the Boomer category by a mere 10 days.

The Boomers' influence on the world is very rapidly diminishing at this point. It's not over but it's well past its peak. It's largely Gen X in charge these days with Millennials also increasingly in positions of authority.

Smurf1976 said:

Thus far agreed.

More recently though, well I'm definitely starting to see prices of consumer items starting to rise.

Supermarkets it's not most things going up, just random products but all of a sudden they jump significantly. Specials and discount brands seem most affected.

At Bunnings I bought a particular item two years ago for $299 and had thoughts of buying a second. Had a look whilst I was there today to see if they still have them - yes they do, exact same item now $449 so that's a 50% price rise.

Some random things I've bought online have also been far more costly than a comparable item would previously have been. Not 10% more, it's more like 5 or 10 times the price. A $2 item is now $15 etc.

It's not affecting most products yet but I'm certainly starting to notice random individual items jumping in price. It seems to be extending beyond housing now.

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By more recently, do you mean with the virus hitting? Because the virus was always going to inflate certain prices whilst decimating others. I don't think you can compare now vs a couple of years ago. 2019 vs 2024, maybe.

Smurf1976 said:

The Prime Minister and every state Premier except Tasmania are all too young to be Boomers.

Even in Tassie, Peter Gutwein scrapes into the Boomer category by a mere 10 days.

The Boomers' influence on the world is very rapidly diminishing at this point. It's not over but it's well past its peak. It's largely Gen X in charge these days with Millennials also increasingly in positions of authority.

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It's hardly a hard & fast line. The tail end of the boomers are still in charge IMO. Also worth noting the demographics of the political parties - far more boomers in the liberals than the greens for example, and the libs are in charge. Also worth noting that state governments can actually do very little as most of this is determined at the federal level, i.e it's the federal government and their policies that matter, not the states'.

I just can't see anything reverting this house price trend until the boomers start flogging their investment properties (assuming they need to). Then there's the supply of credit (interest rates), national debt vs budget deficits/surpluses, immigration...

There's just too many balls in the air/bullets that can still be fired IMO. Even now with the borders shut, they've just dumped interest rates and kept prices inflated that way and even gen X have quite a few investment properties despite being a smaller generation.

Unless you can think of a way of bringing house prices down without it A: costing all the real estate developers that donate to the liberal party a lot of money, B: costing state governments massive amounts in lost stamp duty and C: causing uproar as a lot of retirement nest eggs lose value, we're kind of in a jam.

In all seriousness, can you imagine if a politician got up on the news and ran on the platform of reducing house prices. Can you imagine how many politicians/industry lobbyists/boomers/"experts"/etc etc etc would come swarming out of the woodwork "explaining" why this would be such a "bad idea".

There's just no desire from, well, almost anyone, to bring house prices down. Even the most hardcore left wing greens etc express desire to do it whilst simultaneously supporting the very thing causing much of it - mass immigration.

So even the few people consciously opposing high house prices are still unconsciously actually supporting it.


As I've said before, whether this will keep going doesn't lose me sleep in the slightest because it's beyond even a shadow of a doubt that it will. What does have me worried is what they're going to do to keep it going and then what they'll do when it eventually can't go any further. Those two questions are very worrying.

Until the day comes,when Labor(?) allows tradies from the Philippines into this place,house prices ain't never coming down.Never,ever!

dyna said:

Until the day comes,when Labor(?) allows tradies from the Philippines into this place,house prices ain't never coming down.Never,ever!

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That won't help because we already get them. The cost of doing business here is expensive.
If you look at most small time tradies, they are far from rich.

Wry observation on the Sydney property market.

House Floating Down Sydney Street Sells For $3 Million



An un-renovated terrace (??) in Marrickville (at the time of writing) has sold for $800,000 over its reserve.

Billed as having good bones with plenty of scope for improvement (STCA), the three-bedroom home was said to be in need of a new kitchen and bathroom, as well as new foundations and land.

“You won’t find a 3-bedroom terrace in Sydney for less than this,” real estate agent Hugo Tarnby told bidders, as they swam to keep up with the property.

The home, which started in the sought-after suburb of Enmore, before floating to Marrickville and then Tempe, was at times close to shops, public transport and other amenities.

“It’s close to everything, eventually,” Tarnby said. “It has 360 degree absolute waterfront views. Don’t let this one pass you by. And I mean that very literally”.

Successful bidders Jo Granton and Jeremy Peach said they were ecstatic to finally get onto the property ladder. “It’s not perfect, but it’s got great potential. Of course we would’ve loved a house that was connected to the ground, but this is Sydney! You can’t have everything.”

basilio said:

Wry observation on the Sydney property market.

House Floating Down Sydney Street Sells For $3 Million

View attachment 121717

An un-renovated terrace (??) in Marrickville (at the time of writing) has sold for $800,000 over its reserve.

Billed as having good bones with plenty of scope for improvement (STCA), the three-bedroom home was said to be in need of a new kitchen and bathroom, as well as new foundations and land.

“You won’t find a 3-bedroom terrace in Sydney for less than this,” real estate agent Hugo Tarnby told bidders, as they swam to keep up with the property.

The home, which started in the sought-after suburb of Enmore, before floating to Marrickville and then Tempe, was at times close to shops, public transport and other amenities.

“It’s close to everything, eventually,” Tarnby said. “It has 360 degree absolute waterfront views. Don’t let this one pass you by. And I mean that very literally”.

Successful bidders Jo Granton and Jeremy Peach said they were ecstatic to finally get onto the property ladder. “It’s not perfect, but it’s got great potential. Of course we would’ve loved a house that was connected to the ground, but this is Sydney! You can’t have everything.”

House floating down Sydney street sells for $3 mil above reserve — The Shovel

"Close to schools and shops ... momentarily"

www.theshovel.com.au

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Brings a whole new meaning to the term house boats, doesn't it?
The pictures on the news will certainly make some O/S buyers nervous, especially when they are buying sight unseen.

Ah yes, Sydney real estate.

The world's largest cleaning house for Chinese dirty money.

dyna said:

Until the day comes,when Labor(?) allows tradies from the Philippines into this place,house prices ain't never coming down.Never,ever!

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seriously? you are blaming house prices never coming down on something that hasn't happened based on the racist notion that immigrants are going to make things worse?

Warr87 said:

seriously? you are blaming house prices never coming down on something that hasn't happened based on the racist notion that immigrants are going to make things worse?

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Supply & demand have nothing to do with race.

Go back to reddit.

Warr87 said:

seriously? you are blaming house prices never coming down on something that hasn't happened based on the racist notion that immigrants are going to make things worse?

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I think he is suggesting that the cost of labour, especially in trades, is so high in Australia (as compared to developing nations) that real estate prices are likely to stay high because the cost of construction keeps going up, creating an ever increasing floor price for real estate.

In my view the most troubling aspects of the housing bubble is the acceleration of apartment construction and ownership. Why ?

1) The build quality of high rise apartments ranges from shoddy to questionable. Flammable cladding, poor construction procedures are showing up in many units

2) Each Block has multiple owners. Hence there will huge problems addressing end of life and maintenance issues

3) If/when the block becomes too costly to renovate the final value of each apartment will be a small portion of the land size less demolition costs. Historically even when a house becomes dilapidated the land value has risen substantially. This will not be the case for apartment buyers in the 21st Century.

The critical time will come when banks and insurance companies have to insure the sale of older units. We'll see.

And the dodgy developers will have dissolved the company and rebirthed it under a different name long before anyone is able to sue it.

greggles said:

I think he is suggesting that the cost of labour, especially in trades, is so high in Australia (as compared to developing nations) that real estate prices are likely to stay high because the cost of construction keeps going up, creating an ever increasing floor price for real estate.

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The price of land is appreciating far more than the price of construction.

greggles said:

I think he is suggesting that the cost of labour, especially in trades, is so high in Australia (as compared to developing nations) that real estate prices are likely to stay high because the cost of construction keeps going up, creating an ever increasing floor price for real estate.

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Agreed the cost of construction is high but employee trades make far less than most seem to realise.

Plenty of other non-professional jobs pay the same or better.

Where the money does come in trades is either working seriously long hours or running a business but that's true for most occupations.

basilio said:

In my view the most troubling aspects of the housing bubble is the acceleration of apartment construction and ownership. Why ?

1) The build quality of high rise apartments ranges from shoddy to questionable. Flammable cladding, poor construction procedures are showing up in many units

2) Each Block has multiple owners. Hence there will huge problems addressing end of life and maintenance issues

3) If/when the block becomes too costly to renovate the final value of each apartment will be a small portion of the land size less demolition costs. Historically even when a house becomes dilapidated the land value has risen substantially. This will not be the case for apartment buyers in the 21st Century.

The critical time will come when banks and insurance companies have to insure the sale of older units. We'll see.

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It's affordable compared to housing. And often well positioned for the price.

Large building company can lock up the maintenance contract. Some places in Sydney will re-paint, change fittings, outdoor furniture etc every so many years.

All in one living. You have gyms, supermarkets, parks, restaurants all located in some of these apartment complex. A lot of these big companies keep on profiting by these lifestyle type complex. People like the convenience.

You can fit a lot more on the land by building up. Basic principle, but you simply can make a heap of money the more units you make.

Some people simply like being surrounded by other people as well.

I'm not a fan but I enjoy the social side. In saying that I only visit on occasions.

To be fair, most tradies are not exactly wise with money either.

Smurf1976 said:

Agreed the cost of construction is high but employee trades make far less than most seem to realise.

Plenty of other non-professional jobs pay the same or better.

Where the money does come in trades is either working seriously long hours or running a business but that's true for most occupations.

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People think tradie=business.
Two different things. Business is business. I don't see it done in other businesses (eg chef/owner of restaurant). I always say the same thing: "go do it" if you think they are rolling in money.
Of the 7 or so guys that trained me or I learnt from all of them died 45 -60. All of them but two were broke when they died. And all owned businesses. And that's one specific trade.