The future of Australian property prices

[moXJO]

To be fair, most tradies are not exactly wise with money either.

That's not true and is true at the same time. Most are trying to get out of the trades and will do share seminars etc. Gen x onwards and licensed.

I met a lot on sites and conversations would go towards alternative revenue sources. One guy even learnt how to program to design his own app. Most guys have an escape plan.

I had to edit because most won't get it to work

 

[sptrawler]

The problem with trade related businesses, if you are the business, you only get paid for the time you put in and there is only so many hours in a day.
If you want to make more money you have to employ more people and that brings with it a whole new set of headaches and overheads.
The best businesses are those that you are only limited by how many people buy your stuff, that is why online has taken off, basically middle men that don't have to rely on foot traffic and minimal overheads.
I've known a lot of tradie's that have started a business, not many make a good living, a few get big but most go broke.

 

[greggles]

The price of land is appreciating far more than the price of construction.

But not everywhere, only in high demand areas. Land is cheap outside the capital cities but the cost of construction remains relatively high everywhere. I don't know any tradies (other than apprentices) that work for less than $60/hr. Globally, that is very high for tradespeople and given that labour represents at least 50% of the cost of a new house, has a huge impact on the price of residential construction in Australia.

 

[moXJO]

But not everywhere, only in high demand areas. Land is cheap outside the capital cities but the cost of construction remains relatively high everywhere. I don't know any tradies (other than apprentices) that work for less than $60/hr. Globally, that is very high for tradespeople and given that labour represents at least 50% of the cost of a new house, has a huge impact on the price of residential construction in Australia.

25- 40 bucks an hour they get paid.

If running a business then you are charging min $100/h.

Because you have to cover:
Quotes
Travel
Times you are not working ( wet days, no work).
On top of the usual business expenses.

Across the world Labor costs are in fact 40%
Canada
UK
US

And Philippines non-provincial up to 45%, provincial 35%.

You can build a cheap house here if you don't build the mansions everyone has become accustomed to.

 

[greggles]

25- 40 bucks an hour they get paid.

If running a business then you are charging min $100/h.

Because you have to cover:
Quotes
Travel
Times you are not working ( wet days, no work).
On top of the usual business expenses.

The actual cost is the amount charged to the consumer not the amount paid to the employee. I haven't paid an independent contractor less than $60/hr for a number of years now. I'm sure on residential builds the cost of plumbers, sparkies and other tradies can't possibly be less than $60/hr as the builder will be marking up their services to make a profit on the project.

Across the world Labor costs are in fact 40%
Canada
UK
US

And Philippines non-provincial up to 45%, provincial 35%.

You can build a cheap house here if you don't build the mansions everyone has become accustomed to.

You could be right here. I'm only going off my own experience.

 

[Warr87]

Supply & demand have nothing to do with race.

Go back to reddit.

supply and demand don't. but his comments were blatantly racist.

you can take that racist ideology elsewhere.

 

[againsthegrain]

supply and demand don't. but his comments were blatantly racist.

you can take that racist ideology elsewhere.

What was racist about it? Because tradies over there work for less?
everything seems racist thesedays

 

[over9k]

supply and demand don't. but his comments were blatantly racist.

you can take that racist ideology elsewhere.

No they weren't. Go back to reddit.

 

[Warr87]

Until the day comes,when Labor(?) allows tradies from the Philippines into this place,house prices ain't never coming down.Never,ever!

seriously? you are blaming house prices never coming down on something that hasn't happened based on the racist notion that immigrants are going to make things worse?

Supply & demand have nothing to do with race.

Go back to reddit.

What was racist about it? Because tradies over there work for less?
everything seems racist thesedays

No they weren't. Go back to reddit.

seriously? He specifically mentions house prices wont go down because Labour are going to let in Filipino trades. He specifically mentions race, but its not racist? Sure, placing bad house prices on an immigration policy that doesn't exist for a situation that hasn't occured on a specific set of people isn't racist? Are you an idiot? lol

Supply and demand has nothing to do with race, you are correct. Blaming future immigration on high house prices shouldn't have anything to do with it, if the argument was purely about supply and demand.

and telling me to go back to reddit? what is that? i don't understand. i'm not on reddit. but i guess this is meant to be an insult? you could try using an argument.

 

[againsthegrain]

He said the opposite to what you stated. Prices won't go down until Labour lets in Philo tradies, hence tradies that will work for less (more competitive) he never said they are bad or do a bad job.. why is everybody so sensitive

 

[moXJO]

The actual cost is the amount charged to the consumer not the amount paid to the employee. I haven't paid an independent contractor less than $60/hr for a number of years now. I'm sure on residential builds the cost of plumbers, sparkies and other tradies can't possibly be less than $60/hr as the builder will be marking up their services to make a profit on the project.



You could be right here. I'm only going off my own experience.

It's roughly the same % all over the world.

Tradies subcontracting get screwed by the builders. I wasn't cheap because I'd do the job right. I trained all my guys myself and ended up having to pay a premium to keep them.

I could make good coin running a large business but it comes with more costs and risks. You literally risk everything on some jobs and can lose the lot.


I was also making better money in the 90s and my old man use to say it was better in the 80s which I only caught the back end of.

The price charged by a tradie running a business should be min $100 an hour to survive. It's unpredictable work.

Housing downturns literally means you don't eat.

 

[over9k]

seriously? He specifically mentions house prices wont go down because Labour are going to let in Filipino trades. He specifically mentions race, but its not racist? Sure, placing bad house prices on an immigration policy that doesn't exist for a situation that hasn't occured on a specific set of people isn't racist? Are you an idiot? lol

Supply and demand has nothing to do with race, you are correct. Blaming future immigration on high house prices shouldn't have anything to do with it, if the argument was purely about supply and demand.

and telling me to go back to reddit? what is that? i don't understand. i'm not on reddit. but i guess this is meant to be an insult? you could try using an argument.

Australia's immigration policy is to use immigration to push wages down and real estate (land) prices up through a simple mass influx of people who need both a job and a place to live in. So far, they've successfully done this to basically all uni grads through "skilled" (uni educated) migration, but this has driven the price of housing construction up as the increase in demand for housing has not been offset by a commensurate increase in the supply of housing itself nor the people needed to build them. Increase that supply and construction costs will come down, land prices will go up, and tradies will all be working for peanuts just like everyone else currently are.

He mentioned the Philippines because that's the government's preferred source of foreign tradies to use to place downwards pressure on local tradies wages and with it, construction prices.

The Philippines are a country, not a race. "Immigrant" is not a race either.


If you find yourself agreeing with a federal liberal party policy, you should probably take a step back and have a very good think.

 

[moXJO]

Prices won't go down until Labour lets in Philo tradies, hence tradies that will work for less

I know its not your comment.

We already did this and they raised their prices.

I'd like to buy a gourmet dinner for $2 but I'm not stupid enough to think letting in foreign chefs is going to make it happen. Just because I can get something on the streets of Asia doesn't mean jack here. Costs are high for a reason.

 

[Joe Blow]

seriously? He specifically mentions house prices wont go down because Labour are going to let in Filipino trades. He specifically mentions race, but its not racist? Sure, placing bad house prices on an immigration policy that doesn't exist for a situation that hasn't occured on a specific set of people isn't racist? Are you an idiot? lol

Supply and demand has nothing to do with race, you are correct. Blaming future immigration on high house prices shouldn't have anything to do with it, if the argument was purely about supply and demand.

and telling me to go back to reddit? what is that? i don't understand. i'm not on reddit. but i guess this is meant to be an insult? you could try using an argument.

OK, I've got to jump in here before this thread goes completely off topic.

This is my interpretation of the disputed post.

Firstly, Filipino is a nationality, not a race. Filipinos are people who are native to or citizens of the country of the Philippines.

The mention of "Labor" is followed by a question mark. I suspect that this means that the author is suggesting that Labor is the political party most likely to implement an immigration policy that allows tradies from lower wage countries to come to Australia to work... but that is open to question. However, the entire statement seems to be largely rhetorical because even if foreign labour were brought into the country, foreigners of any nationality working in Australia for lower wages (except perhaps for backpackers picking fruit) would be hugely controversial and unlikely to be legal. So he/she seems to me to be suggesting that it will never happen, period, and real estate prices are destined to remain high.

The reference to Filipinos seems to be out of convenience only and could have referred to citizens of any country where the cost of labour is significantly lower than in Australia. Perhaps he/she has been to the Philippines and is familiar with the cost of labour there?

I sense conservatism in the post, but not blatant racism.

 

[over9k]

In my view the most troubling aspects of the housing bubble is the acceleration of apartment construction and ownership. Why ?

1) The build quality of high rise apartments ranges from shoddy to questionable. Flammable cladding, poor construction procedures are showing up in many units

2) Each Block has multiple owners. Hence there will huge problems addressing end of life and maintenance issues

3) If/when the block becomes too costly to renovate the final value of each apartment will be a small portion of the land size less demolition costs. Historically even when a house becomes dilapidated the land value has risen substantially. This will not be the case for apartment buyers in the 21st Century.

The critical time will come when banks and insurance companies have to insure the sale of older units. We'll see.

Not sure where you're situated but some of the high rise 'scrapers in melbourne's southbank that have been built over the past decade or so are rapidly approaching the point of resembling old communist blocks from the soviet union.

I & the other half briefly rented one when I was living there and it beggared belief. The fumes when you stuck your head out the window/stood on the bakery at tea time were incredible as hundreds upon hundreds of meals were cooked on bbq's, woks etc on 3/4 of the balconies in southbank all at the same time.

And then there was the absolute state of some of the places when you got the occasional look (or smell) through a neighbour's door or over the road to the building opposite etc etc. It was damn near squalor.

9/10ths of the residents didn't care about any of it.

Most of them would have to be vertical ghettos by now.

 

[moXJO]

Not sure where you're situated but some of the high rise 'scrapers in melbourne's southbank that have been built over the past decade or so are rapidly approaching the point of resembling old communist blocks from the soviet union.

I & the other half briefly rented one when I was living there and it beggared belief. The fumes when you stuck your head out the window/stood on the bakery at tea time were incredible as hundreds upon hundreds of meals were cooked on bbq's, woks etc on 3/4 of the balconies in southbank all at the same time.

And then there was the absolute state of some of the places when you got the occasional look (or smell) through a neighbour's door or over the road to the building opposite etc etc. It was damn near squalor.

9/10ths of the residents didn't care about any of it.

Most of them would have to be vertical ghettos by now.

They actually banned BBQ on patios in a lot of apartments in Sydney due to complaints. Same thing was happening.

 

[againsthegrain]

Sorry off the topic, saw your in Melbourne @over9k you don't happen to have the same custom plates on your car do you? Saw a bmw not long ago around bayside with plates "over9k"

 

[moXJO]

Sorry off the topic, saw your in Melbourne @over9k you don't happen to have the same custom plates on your car do you? Saw a bmw not long ago around bayside with plates "over9k"

Oh no you outed him now.
Was it a blue 2004 model

 

[againsthegrain]

Oh no you outed him now.
Was it a blue 2004 model

Driving the opposite direction on the main road, but yeah darkish bluish older bwm

 

[over9k]

Well this is awkward.