The future of Australian property prices

[over9k]

Nah I'm not in melb any more. Couldn't stand the place. Trying to unlock the infinite money code so I can move to vaucluse.

If my gains of the last year continue, I should be able to move there sometime in the next 10,000 years.

 

[Smurf1976]

I don't know any tradies (other than apprentices) that work for less than $60/hr.

That might be the rate charged to the customer but no ordinary tradie doing mainstream work will get that as an employee for working normal hours. Not even the unions' preferred rates are that high.

To get that as an employee you'd need to be doing more than just run of the mill trades work on the tools. Supervisor isn't high enough to get that either.

To earn that you'll need to do one of:

Running your own business and being better at it than most.

Working very long hours. Been there, done that in the past as have many although WHS laws pretty much preclude it these days.

Are in a specialised field where the focus is on quality of work and perfection and where management will pay whatever they need to pay to retain skilled staff.

Doing something else apart from actual trades work. Their real value to the employer is in whatever those other things are, any actual trades work is just a sideline. In my "on the tools" tradie days I ended up doing everything from meeting with politicians to turning a stop/slow sign. (And before anyone asks, yes I had the required ticket to be turning that sign).

You won't get $60 an hour just doing very mainstream trades work for an employer working normal hours though. Not with most employers at least.

 

[qldfrog]

/*If running a business then you are charging min $100/h.
Because you have to cover:
Quotes
Travel
Times you are not working ( wet days, no work).
On top of the usual business expenses.*/
Sure but however you see this , whether it is indeed required by high costs etc (I do not deny that) , it means an Australian tradie is charging as much as an graduate engineer or scientist/or even a GP by the hour, you do whatever sum you want but this is not sustainable in an open world where hundreds of millions do the same tradie job at around $10 an hour
The cost of life and doing business is the same for a GP/scientist or engineer here than a tradie so the only difference is that the relative standard of living of a tradie in australia is much higher than elsewhere around the world.
And imbalance tend to sort themselves out either by reduction of the tradie rate or overall reduction of the Australian living standard.usually multi-generational shift but will happen.

 

[basilio]

This wake up call has been made many times. I think the latest disaster in NSW will reinforce it with a vengeance.
What will be the consequences of global warming on infrastructure ? How do we ensure that development will survive heightened flood and fire threats ? What impacts can we forsee on the financial institutions that rely on a flourishing property market if that market has serious structural problems?

I commented earlier on the rapid building of high rise apartments whose value will collapse as the buildings deteriorate. Same thing will happen for fire and flood prone areas.

Flood insurance costing $30,000 highlights which areas should not be developed for housing​

Thousands of the people enduring the heartbreaking sight of their homes sinking beneath a rising brown tide across the east of NSW are doing so knowing they don't have insurance coverage.

.....'A certain insanity' in development​

What a $30,000 annual insurance bill is telling us is not necessarily that we need socialised home and contents insurance, rather that an awful lot of housing has been built where it probably shouldn't have been, or hasn't been built in a way to suit its location.

"We've now got more than a hundred years of data, we really understand where land floods in this country, and we need to be doing more in ensuring that data is available and governments are making the right land planning decisions," Mr Hall argued.

"One of the problems we've got in this country is that we've allowed housing developments to occur in areas that are at risk of high flood.

If your insurance bill is $30,000 per year it's sending a message – don't live there

State and local governments continue to allow development in flood-prone areas they know are practically uninsurable, and prospective owners don't always even need to be made aware of the risks.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

This wake up call has been made many times. I think the latest disaster in NSW will reinforce it with a vengeance.
What will be the consequences of global warming on infrastructure ? How do we ensure that development will survive heightened flood and fire threats ? What impacts can we forsee on the financial institutions that rely on a flourishing property market if that market has serious structural problems?

I commented earlier on the rapid building of high rise apartments whose value will collapse as the buildings deteriorate. Same thing will happen for fire and flood prone areas.

Flood insurance costing $30,000 highlights which areas should not be developed for housing​

Thousands of the people enduring the heartbreaking sight of their homes sinking beneath a rising brown tide across the east of NSW are doing so knowing they don't have insurance coverage.

.....'A certain insanity' in development​

Add to that the bushfire risk and on the East coast it is really becoming a problem, to find a safe housing area.

 

[Smurf1976]

This wake up call has been made many times. I think the latest disaster in NSW will reinforce it with a vengeance.

A concept often overlooked pretty much everywhere outside the mining and energy industries is resource grade.

Pick any natural resource, land included, and the total supply of it ranges from extremely good quality to outright rubbish. Much the same way as a mineral resource ranges from high grade through to low grade, a renewable energy resource ranges from reasonably consistent through to extremely intermittent and so on.

Now in mining and energy it's usually the case that somewhere around half the total in a given location is actually worthwhile, the rest being either too expensive, technically problematic or it's simply too inferior in quality for anyone to want it.

Land in a given area is going to be much the same. Some will be good and well suited to housing. Some has a tendency to be flooded and isn't at all well suited to that use.

It's a mistake to simply draw a radius of x km from the CBD on a map and assume that all land within that can be developed. For all sorts of reasons some of it's best left either in its natural state or put to some use that doesn't suffer greatly if it ends up under water, on fire or whatever.

That situation exists even without the climate issue although that obviously could make it worse.

 

[moXJO]

/*If running a business then you are charging min $100/h.
Because you have to cover:
Quotes
Travel
Times you are not working ( wet days, no work).
On top of the usual business expenses.*/
Sure but however you see this , whether it is indeed required by high costs etc (I do not deny that) , it means an Australian tradie is charging as much as an graduate engineer or scientist/or even a GP by the hour, you do whatever sum you want but this is not sustainable in an open world where hundreds of millions do the same tradie job at around $10 an hour
The cost of life and doing business is the same for a GP/scientist or engineer here than a tradie so the only difference is that the relative standard of living of a tradie in australia is much higher than elsewhere around the world.
And imbalance tend to sort themselves out either by reduction of the tradie rate or overall reduction of the Australian living standard.usually multi-generational shift but will hahappen.

GP charge about $50 every 4 minutes.
They will often charge extra.
Engineering business charge huge sums.
An engineer can make a decent wage with no risk if he has a job. He can charge excessively if he owns a business.

Tradies run a business that is unpredictable and risky. It's a business. People need to distinguish between take home money and business money.

I can see a doctor for $6 get a meal for $2 and the weekly shop for $40 in another country. Yes it's expensive as sht in this country. As it is in most of the western world.

 

[moXJO]

This wake up call has been made many times. I think the latest disaster in NSW will reinforce it with a vengeance.
What will be the consequences of global warming on infrastructure ? How do we ensure that development will survive heightened flood and fire threats ? What impacts can we forsee on the financial institutions that rely on a flourishing property market if that market has serious structural problems?

I commented earlier on the rapid building of high rise apartments whose value will collapse as the buildings deteriorate. Same thing will happen for fire and flood prone areas.

Flood insurance costing $30,000 highlights which areas should not be developed for housing​

Thousands of the people enduring the heartbreaking sight of their homes sinking beneath a rising brown tide across the east of NSW are doing so knowing they don't have insurance coverage.

.....'A certain insanity' in development​

What a $30,000 annual insurance bill is telling us is not necessarily that we need socialised home and contents insurance, rather that an awful lot of housing has been built where it probably shouldn't have been, or hasn't been built in a way to suit its location.

"We've now got more than a hundred years of data, we really understand where land floods in this country, and we need to be doing more in ensuring that data is available and governments are making the right land planning decisions," Mr Hall argued.

If your insurance bill is $30,000 per year it's sending a message – don't live there

State and local governments continue to allow development in flood-prone areas they know are practically uninsurable, and prospective owners don't always even need to be made aware of the risks.

www.abc.net.au

It's up to council to ensure standards are met. You can build over almost anything if its done right.

 

[qldfrog]

GP charge about $50 every 4 minutes.
They will often charge extra.
Engineering business charge huge sums.
An engineer can make a decent wage with no risk if he has a job. He can charge excessively if he owns a business.

Tradies run a business that is unpredictable and risky. It's a business. People need to distinguish between take home money and business money.

I can see a doctor for $6 get a meal for $2 and the weekly shop for $40 in another country. Yes it's expensive as sht in this country. As it is in most of the western world.

I still believe a gp will bring home less than a tradie per hour worked.
Different obviously if you own the business but same for tradies

 

[Smurf1976]

I still believe a gp will bring home less than a tradie per hour worked

What’s the going rate for an employee GP?

 

[basilio]

GP charge about $50 every 4 minutes.

Really ? Like $750 an hour ( $50 x 15 )
Would you like to recheck that and then consult the Medicare schedules for GPs.

Private GPs will charge more of course .

Item 23 | Medicare Benefits Schedule

www9.health.gov.au

 

[moXJO]

I still believe a gp will bring home less than a tradie per hour worked.
Different obviously if you own the business but same for tradies

I can assure you the majority don't. Doctor can work as late as he likes. Can do it till he is 80 yo. And there ain't many tradies driving BMW's. I've worked for multiple gps, specialists, surgeon's and they all enjoyed the advantages of being loved by banks. Banks hated tradies

Really ? Like $750 an hour ( $50 x 15 )
Would you like to recheck that and then consult the Medicare schedules for GPs.

Private GPs will charge more of course .

Item 23 | Medicare Benefits Schedule

www9.health.gov.au

About half that number usually bas.

Most earn roughly $200-300k a year and with extra shifts it's $500k it's what now $40 something bucks per consultation bulk billed and $85 when they charge?

Oh and you still have to cut out the expenses. That's not take home pay.

I still wouldn't want their life either.

 

[qldfrog]

I can assure you the majority don't. Doctor can work as late as he likes. Can do it till he is 80 yo. And there ain't many tradies driving BMW's. I've worked for multiple gps, specialists, surgeon's and they all enjoyed the advantages of being loved by banks. Banks hated tradies

About half that number usually bas.

Most earn roughly $200-300k a year and with extra shifts it's $500k it's what now $40 something bucks per consultation bulk billed and $85 when they charge?

Oh and you still have to cut out the expenses. That's not take home pay.

I still wouldn't want their life either.

https://www.redbankmedical.com.au/jobs so first search result up to 2k..up to ok...
Then 71% of billing so up to 1.4k a day, remember up to..

Now who pays the public liability insurance, want to compare that with a tradie..or the cost of tool of the tradie?
At the very least comparable..i am not gp
And i know as a graduate engineer, after 5y uni, and not years of gender studies,you get around 800$ a day of on your own as contractor, or 70k a year in a job in your first years as i say comparable to a tradie.australian tradies are well better paid than other o/s tradies simply due to the fact we do not have millions of illegal immigrants ready to do the job for half.
I think that was the idea of the original post and i agree.
That will not change here until a labour gov opens the gates a la Biden.and so re will remain high for aistralians

 

[basilio]

I can assure you the majority don't. Doctor can work as late as he likes. Can do it till he is 80 yo. And there ain't many tradies driving BMW's. I've worked for multiple gps, specialists, surgeon's and they all enjoyed the advantages of being loved by banks. Banks hated tradies

About half that number usually bas.

Most earn roughly $200-300k a year and with extra shifts it's $500k it's what now $40 something bucks per consultation bulk billed and $85 when they charge?

Oh and you still have to cut out the expenses. That's not take home pay.

I still wouldn't want their life either.

Get real please. Medicare gives $38.75 per 20 minute consultaion. A fast GP will do 5 per hour including hello and goodbye and interactions with staff. That's $200 gross P/H not $750.
A huge difference.

The business costs are substantial. Practice costs, Offices, Medical Insurance, compulsory yearly education programs.

I suspect that if the gross is $250k they might net, before tax, $130k -150k. Yes there is an extra $30-40 per consultation for non medicare . But conversely those patients demand a more detailed level of care/interest. Swings and roundabouts.

But I agree in the end. I wouldn't want their life either.

 

[sptrawler]

A quick look on Mr Google:

Discover 2000+ Doctor Locum and Permanent Jobs

A medical recruitment agency helping doctors find better permanent and locum jobs. We’re preferred by hospitals and GP clinics across Australia and New Zealand.

www.medrecruit.com

Average GP salary. Based on a salary survey in Australia, a full-time General Practitioner on average earns between $200,000 and $350,000 per annum. However, by working more shifts in the evenings, weekends, completing procedures and managing chronic disease patients, earnings could increase to $500,000+.

I still wouldn't want to do the job either.

 

[Smurf1976]

Best advice I can give anyone with tradies is forget price.

If you find anyone who does a top notch job and the reason you're hiring them is to do work on a place you own well then just pay their price. One quote and give them the job, no "three quotes" nonsense.

Reason = there's an awful lot of shoddy ones around.

I'm half way through helping someone rebuild a carport.

Long story short, you really shouldn't secure structural timber that holds the roof up using two tek screws. Oh no you shouldn't, that's a really, really bad idea.

Not a good idea to install mismatched roofing profiles either, especially not if you can't even be bothered to put any proper flashing between them. Funny thing is, there's enough sheets of the correct profile roofing stashed behind the shed.....

Roofing screws need a washer under them too. Otherwise there's a problem when stuff, known as rain, falls from the sky.

Also exposed steel needs to be galvanized or otherwise protected from corrosion. See point above about "rain" - it's a real thing yes.

Don't put timber straight in the ground either. Stick food in front of the termites and strangely enough they eat it.

Someone was paid to build that that.

No doubt with the property price frenzy there'll be some similarly shoddy work being done, leaving some surprises for whoever buys the place. There are good tradies of course, but a boom means the bad ones have no trouble getting work too.....

 

[moXJO]

lasting less than 20 minutes

Professional attendance by a general practitioner at consulting rooms (other than a service to which another item in the table applies), lasting less than 20 minutes and including any of the following that are clinically relevant:

 

[sptrawler]

Best advice I can give anyone with tradies is forget price.

If you find anyone who does a top notch job and the reason you're hiring them is to do work on a place you own well then just pay their price. One quote and give them the job, no "three quotes" nonsense.

Reason = there's an awful lot of shoddy ones around.

I'm half way through helping someone rebuild a carport.

Long story short, you really shouldn't secure structural timber that holds the roof up using two tek screws. Oh no you shouldn't, that's a really, really bad idea.

Not a good idea to install mismatched roofing profiles either, especially not if you can't even be bothered to put any proper flashing between them. Funny thing is, there's enough sheets of the correct profile roofing stashed behind the shed.....

Roofing screws need a washer under them too. Otherwise there's a problem when stuff, known as rain, falls from the sky.

Also exposed steel needs to be galvanized or otherwise protected from corrosion. See point above about "rain" - it's a real thing yes.

Don't put timber straight in the ground either. Stick food in front of the termites and strangely enough they eat it.

Someone was paid to build that that.

No doubt with the property price frenzy there'll be some similarly shoddy work being done, leaving some surprises for whoever buys the place. There are good tradies of course, but a boom means the bad ones have no trouble getting work too.....

I will add to that, ask people if they can recommend a tradesman, people will soon tell you if they have had a bad tradesman work on their place.
Do your research and know what you actually want done, there is no point being vague about the job, or they will be vague about the price.

 

[moXJO]

https://www.redbankmedical.com.au/jobs so first search result up to 2k..up to ok...
Then 71% of billing so up to 1.4k a day, remember up to..

Now who pays the public liability insurance, want to compare that with a tradie..or the cost of tool of the tradie?
At the very least comparable..i am not gp
And i know as a graduate engineer, after 5y uni, and not years of gender studies,you get around 800$ a day of on your own as contractor, or 70k a year in a job in your first years as i say comparable to a tradie.australian tradies are well better paid than other o/s tradies simply due to the fact we do not have millions of illegal immigrants ready to do the job for half.
I think that was the idea of the original post and i agree.
That will not change here until a labour gov opens the gates a la Biden.and so re will remain high for aistralians

All my engineer buddies are multi millionaires so I'm the wrong guy to argue with. One actually said he got rich by buying big expensive equipment. Where as anyone could buy a hammer and drill.


Here's some stats remembering that these include subbies and sole traders. Also that the national average income in Australia, according to the ABS, is $88,140.

Here's the site actually:

https://www.traderisk.com.au/how-much-do-tradies-earn

Like I said to everyone that thinks they make too much. Grab a hammer and find out

 

[qldfrog]

I will add to that, ask people if they can recommend a tradesman, people will soon tell you if they have had a bad tradesman work on their place.
Do your research and know what you actually want done, there is no point being vague about the job, or they will be vague about the price.

and to compare vs other western countries, assuming this is proper figures but seems reasonable:
17euro is 26AUD so that is the average hourly rate..just saying
and life in France is not cheap is it?
but French tradesmen do not drive 100k new utes, competing with Real Estates agents....That is definitively a factor in our property price, whether this hurts sensitivities or not.
I do not really care, let's them enjoy it why this last, and it will for a while as they are a key part of the electorate