The future of Australian property prices

[Smurf1976]

I worked at a university in Melbourne the last 6 years. From the day I started the uni borrowed hand over first to build student apartments and dormatories all over the place. Now most are empty...

Same pretty in most (all?) states I think.

Universities could themselves be classified as very bubble-like in their behaviour in recent times which seemed to be extrapolating recent growth trends into the indefinite future.

In less than a generation, they've gone from a functional place people went in order to obtain a tertiary education to a big business in their own right.

 

[againsthegrain]

Same pretty in most (all?) states I think.

Universities could themselves be classified as very bubble-like in their behaviour in recent times which seemed to be extrapolating recent growth trends into the indefinite future.

In less than a generation, they've gone from a functional place people went in order to obtain a tertiary education to a big business in their own right.

Not to mention uni fees are in a similar bubble as re prices, very discouraging to local kids

 

[basilio]

Greg Jericho always uses good research to backup his analysis of economic trends. He has some startling statistics to show the upward pressure on housing prices at teh moment - and why this is happening.

Australia's housing market is boosted by policies designed to ensure prices keep rising | Greg Jericho

One thing you can count on in politics is that any government will look after homeowners

www.theguardian.com

 

[gartley]

You can't rent out gold.

I ain't the gold the owner is renting out it's the house. The renter can pay owner out whatever they agree on be it a slab of beer or any currency they decide on......

 

[gartley]

Nor will a bank let you borrow squillions to lever

It's the unit of measure that's important. Do the same for DOW and it can be seen that it actually peaked in the year 2000 .
It shows that the subsequent inflated price rises in terms of fiat are artificial ie from QE as well as other government and central bank manipulations.
A few years ago whilst Gold was falling in terms of USD it had already bottomed against other currencies such as AUD, CAD, GBP and EUR. This was suggesting it was only a matter of time before a turn up in the terms of USD was at hand.
The same can be said about other assets relative to gold......

 

[gartley]

Could you throw up the Perth graph? Lol

 

[sptrawler]

Thanks @gartley, that graph pretty well sums up the state of housing in Perth, yet all we hear is how housing in Australia is in a bubble. ?

 

[basilio]

Thanks @gartley, that graph pretty well sums up the state of housing in Perth, yet all we hear is how housing in Australia is in a bubble. ?

That's an interesting observation SP and clearly you live in the West so you have that local perspective.
However if you check out the post I made on housing demand in Oz there was a particular note on the huge (83- 87%) increase in WA housing finance in the past 12 months. Post 14323

Perhaps the tide is turning ?

 

[sptrawler]

That's an interesting observation SP and clearly you live in the West so you have that local perspective.
However if you check out the post I made on housing demand in Oz there was a particular note on the huge (83- 87%) increase in WA housing finance in the past 12 months. Post 14323

Perhaps the tide is turning ?

There is also $200billion in extra savings, due to the virus, so if there is a lot of savings and cheap housing one meets the other. Add to that $65,000 incentives and there will be further fuel to the fire, but as happened last time once the demand is fulfilled things will go back to the long term norm.
The first paragraph in your article said enough for me.
The latest housing loan figures show Australia’s housing market continues on its merry way. The market is still boosted by government policies designed to ensure prices keep rising, even in an environment where wages are unlikely to grow and interest rates look unlikely to rise significantly for many years.

Perth has been on rock bottom for 8 years, I don't know how the statement "continues on it merry way" applies.
But of course I'm not in that property island of Sydney/ Melbourne, which is the only one that is talked about and matters.

The next paragraph:
I must admit at the start of the pandemic to being a bit concerned that house prices might fall. I should apologise for my naivety in thinking the government would ever let such a thing happen. If there is one thing you can count on in politics it is that a Coalition government (and to be honest an ALP one as well) will look after homeowners.

Perth's house prices couldn't have fallen any further, they were already rock bottom. ?
So I'm supposed to be all cut up, because people are still bidding up Sydney/ Melbourne house prices, well I'm actually not.?
More fool them IMO.

 

[moXJO]

Not to mention uni fees are in a similar bubble as re prices, very discouraging to local kids

Not to mention pricing many overseas students into sex slavery.

 

[againsthegrain]

Not to mention pricing many overseas students into sex slavery.

Im sure it happens on a lower scale but most international students have to prepay and their rich parents do that for them, anyway I put priority worrying about local kids first. International students chose to come and study here, local kids are local kids. International students wil come and go, while education should be given priority to local talent that will stick around and shape Aus in the future.

 

[basilio]

Not to mention pricing many overseas students into sex slavery.

Che ? That's pretty gratuitous. Don't want to go too far down that rabbit hole but...

1) I suggest many (not necessarily all) OS students are well supported by families
2) Are you suggesting that local uni students don't do sex work "or even up as sex slaves" despite also facing expensive fees and living expenses?
3) Perhaps there is another route for young girls from O/S ending up as sex slaves. Say hospitality visa spread like confetti amongst the industry? Or people brought in as farm workers and ending up as virtual bonded labour ?

Just saying..

 

[over9k]

Che ? That's pretty gratuitous. Don't want to go too far down that rabbit hole but...

1) I suggest many (not necessarily all) OS students are well supported by families
2) Are you suggesting that local uni students don't do sex work "or even up as sex slaves" despite also facing expensive fees and living expenses?
3) Perhaps there is another route for young girls from O/S ending up as sex slaves. Say hospitality visa spread like confetti amongst the industry? Or people brought in as farm workers and ending up as virtual bonded labour ?

Just saying..

Nobody's said that all the dodgy stuff is unique to foreign students. Again, they're just one piece of the puzzle.

The one thing all of this has in common is immigration because it is the migrants which are the supply of it. Close the borders and it all goes away.

 

[moXJO]

Che ? That's pretty gratuitous. Don't want to go too far down that rabbit hole but...

1) I suggest many (not necessarily all) OS students are well supported by families
2) Are you suggesting that local uni students don't do sex work "or even up as sex slaves" despite also facing expensive fees and living expenses?
3) Perhaps there is another route for young girls from O/S ending up as sex slaves. Say hospitality visa spread like confetti amongst the industry? Or people brought in as farm workers and ending up as virtual bonded labour ?

Just saying..

I know for a fact it is happening. Uni course is touted as a visa pathway. But ends up a pathway to ridiculous fees that end up in abused and drug addicted girls.

One of the rorts third parties play is to pay for all the girls fees up front, then she has to pay them back at triple the price.

It happens and is happening. A lot of women get ruined by it and end up destitute and pregnant.

 

[gartley]

Nobody's said that all the dodgy stuff is unique to foreign students. Again, they're just one piece of the puzzle.

The one thing all of this has in common is immigration because it is the migrants which are the supply of it. Close the borders and it all goes away.

Also don't forget some students ( don't know what %) end up being permanent residents. It all adds up and now that probabaly won't be the case for quite a long time. I understand the migration intake has obviously dropped significantly but "skilled" migrants still being bought in..
However there has also been quite an exodus from the cites during the pandemic and even before, of residents choosing to move to the country, and that probably explains the demand in the regional areas. Can see myself doing the same in the years ahead.

 

[Smurf1976]

2) Are you suggesting that local uni students don't do sex work "or even up as sex slaves" despite also facing expensive fees and living expenses?

I don't want to take the thread off topic, the subject is property prices, but for the record I'm friends with someone who's done that sort of work in the past.

As she puts it, it's a unique industry.

Only job where you're almost certain to be hired if you apply and where resignations really are outright refused and don't for a minute think you can simply not turn up. Getting out of the industry is far harder than getting in.

On the plus side - for those who've got some smarts, take it seriously and remain strictly focused on business it's one way to meet people in positions of power and get rich.

 

[basilio]

I know for a fact it is happening. Uni course is touted as a visa pathway. But ends up a pathway to ridiculous fees that end up in abused and drug addicted girls.

One of the rorts third parties play is to pay for all the girls fees up front, then she has to pay them back at triple the price.

It happens and is happening. A lot of women get ruined by it and end up destitute and pregnant.

I have heard of such activities but they were overwhelmingly associated with Vocational colleges and hospitality visas for the industry. Basically just far cheaper to finance these situations (fees wern't 35k plus a year) and the girls didn't need to jump the academic hoops to get into a Uni course so they had more vulnerable clients.

Very ugly stuff. Probably comes under the heading of modern day slavery and trafficking.

How International Students Benefit from Vocational Education Training in Australia - Barrington College Australia

Business, Hospitality and International training courses for people who dream big, and want to reach a vision of a great future career.

www.barringtoncollege.edu.au

Why international students to turn sex

THEY are lured by the dream of a new life, a chance to build a better future while also providing for loved ones still stuck back home.

www.news.com.au

 

[basilio]

This research highlights Moxjos, mine and others observations about the manipulation of OS students/workers into the sex industry.

Asian international students coaxed into sex work

International students from Asia are increasingly being lured into prostitution on the promises of "easy money" and permanent residency.

www.macrobusiness.com.au

 

[jbocker]

Last few posts have been off topic (really off) but thanks for the info. I have learned something. I recall an earlier post, a student accommodation plan layout that intrigued and appalled me, as it was exceptionally tight but still accommodated a double bed. (post 14202 page 711 by @basilio ) I thought to myself well that might be handy if you 'get lucky'. Maybe the layout it is much more sinister in its overall plan. It would interesting to see if these were collectively owned and run by criminals.

 

[basilio]

I think the really relevant aspect of OS students and Australian Universities is their financial contribution to housing demand and economic demand in the big cities. The loss of hundreds of thousands of these students will punch a hole in Uni budgets and staffing and undermine economic activity in the cities and regional cities that host these students.

Just for a start the huge purpose built O/S student housing flats will stay empty for at least another 6 months.