The future of Australian property prices

[gartley]

With regard to the housing market the EW chart I posted some days ago suggests this drive up is a 5th and last wave and the move down in IR is and an ending diagonal. These patterns are not set in stone, 5th waves can extend. But it's a warning sign that we are in the tail end of this trend that began 40 years ago based on the cycles approach of Elliot wave. Exact timing is very hard in fact impossible and to be left for the gamblers.
But this 5 wave structure is not just in Australia, it's across the world. Look at the chart below of UK house prices, London house prices in the pink 5 wave structure and UK as whole as well as Scotland, Wales likewise and Ireland showing a truncation. Once again property prices are mirrors of IR in reverse. The IR is largely dependant on the movement of the global bond market specifically in the US.
The only difgference is the magnitude of the rises. Australias market has been much more parabolic in nature and our curve has gone vertical. As you know markets don't stay vertical for very long.
But as I say the key takeaway here is not that the market must turn here, but rather that this current juncture is a 5th wave

 

[over9k]

I know what you are saying, but on the flip side what I am trying to get at is when I buy a stock I can look at live data, market depth, recent announcements, see if any substantial changes to holdings took place etc.

Googling around and getting secondary or worse info from news portals which usually lag with stats and info isn't exactly keeping tabs and following what the pollies are holding.

If I was balls deep say $1m in property and sweating trying to mirror politician's moves im not sure those sources would do for me.

Just saying you don't know who's doing what until the party is over, right now music is playing still.

p.s as we all agree on 1 thing, politicians only care about their own interests, so once they exit at a good time screw the rest

Here's a hot tip for you:

Join a political party (you know which one), and go to the meetings. You wouldn't believe the whispers you'll hear

Reminds me of a discussion I had with someone I worked with circa 2002-03. Remember it extremely well due to their furious response to my comment that Holden and Ford were both doomed at least in Australia and it was just a question of the detail of when they'd close.

That was the point I grasped the concept that religious-like beliefs have a far wider application than actual religion as such. Holden was a religion of sorts, so was Ford, so is "house prices always go up", so are a few other things. Challenge someone's religion at your peril.

The writing was however well and truly on the wall at that time which is my point. It just took the next 15 years to play out which is an important point - you can be right about something but it can take so long to actually occur that the prediction isn't of any real use in practice.

Same could be said about housing. There's an abundance of reasons why it "should" crash and that's been the case for years but never underestimate the inventiveness of those who seek to kick the can down the road. However long logic says it ought to take, it'll take far longer in practice.

My point exactly.

And housing isn't even in structural (forgive the pun) decline yet.

 

[againsthegrain]

Here's a hot tip for you:

Join a political party (you know which one), and go to the meetings. You wouldn't believe the whispers you'll hear

This is actually not a bad idea

 

[over9k]

This is actually not a bad idea

It is an excellent idea

 

[againsthegrain]

It is an excellent idea

ha ha yeah well if I was at least knees deep in re id prob do it at any chance of some inside trading kind of info

 

[over9k]

Well, I think my thoughts on this matter I've made more than clear. I think them for a reason. You can probably fill in the blanks from there.

 

[againsthegrain]

Well, I think my thoughts on this matter I've made more than clear. I think them for a reason. You can probably fill in the blanks from there.

I still think you are spruiking it, but its the right thread so no objections here

 

[over9k]

I don't think I'm exactly going to influence the market on an internet forum dude...

If I actually was a spruiker, I wouldn't be a very good one.

 

[dyna]

I've "been there, done that" with working 7 days a week and so on in the past.

It's very doable for a while but nobody in their right mind would plan on doing it for a lifetime.

Incidentally that's a common element among everyone I know who's reasonably comfortable financially. They've all gone through a few years where life's a blur amidst the chaos of work, work and more work. Most seem to try and bring it to a halt once the house is paid off.

There might be a way for the ordinary person to get ahead without that, but it's the common element from what I've seen.

Me too.back in the high interest 1980's and negatively geared to the hilt.Looking back,just madness.Would never recommend it.Still,I've kept the properties,mainly because ....dunno,don't need any more money,I guess.Real estate! A mad game,for sure.

 

[sptrawler]

Me too.back in the high interest 1980's and negatively geared to the hilt.Looking back,just madness.Would never recommend it.Still,I've kept the properties,mainly because ....dunno,don't need any more money,I guess.Real estate! A mad game,for sure.

I went through the same period of time, anyone who thinks renting out investment properties is fun, had better make sure they have a strong marriage before they start on the path.
I sold out years ago, just way too many bad tenants for me, the good tenants bought their own place the bad tenants stayed. ?
I think you have to have the right sort of personality for renting out properties, I certainly didn't, way too soft.

 

[gartley]

I went through the same period of time, anyone who thinks renting out investment properties is fun, had better make sure they have a strong marriage before they start on the path.
I sold out years ago, just way too many bad tenants for me, the good tenants bought their own place the bad tenants stayed. ?
I think you have to have the right sort of personality for renting out properties, I certainly didn't, way too soft.

Likewise, been there done that and not a good outcome at all for me either. I'll stick to the markets!!

 

[over9k]

Foreign students are generally good tenants

 

[gartley]

Foreign students are generally good tenants

What students? I worked at a university in Melbourne the last 6 years. From the day I started the uni borrowed hand over first to build student apartments and dormatories all over the place. Now most are empty...

 

[over9k]

Yeah, that's now. But once the borders are opened and we need the money even more than we did before, you just watch...

 

[gartley]

Yeah, that's now. But once the borders are opened and we need the money even more than we did before, you just watch...

Who knows, Uni's hit really hard with the average international student bringing in $44K a year just for tuition. Most from China

 

[gartley]

So houses only go up? Not when measured against real money they don't. In fact forget about doubling every 10 years. Try more than halving in the last 10 to 15 years!! Keep stacking those bars...

 

[sptrawler]

So houses only go up? Not when measured against real money they don't. In fact forget about doubling every 10 years. Try more than halving in the last 10 to 15 years!! Keep stacking those bars...
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Could you throw up the Perth graph? Lol

 

[frugal.rock]

Yeah, that's now. But once the borders are opened and we need the money even more than we did before, you just watch...

Who knows, Uni's hit really hard with the average international student bringing in $44K a year just for tuition. Most from China

If you haven't got the picture, Australians are rascist.
Disinformation campaigns inside China are discouraging students from attempting to come to Aus.

My thoughts are, NZ uni's will have em flocking there as soon as their able.... that and France.
?

 

[joeno]

So houses only go up? Not when measured against real money they don't. In fact forget about doubling every 10 years. Try more than halving in the last 10 to 15 years!! Keep stacking those bars...
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You can't rent out gold.

 

[over9k]

Nor will a bank let you borrow squillions to lever into it either.