The future of Australian property prices

[over9k]

I think you and I are looking at housing differently, I see it as a basic requirement for building and maintaining a productive and safe society, and left in the hands of greedy pollies and banks will not meet its primary need, shelter, I did not see it as an asset class to trade for profit as a general rule. That is for the building and development of businesses which in turn can help provide for need one shelter through employment and wage growth.

But each to their own.

This is an investment forum. We're discussing how to make money. My personal opinions on how the country should be run etc are irrelevant and I haven't mentioned them for that very reason.

 

[gartley]

You know full well the crash in the market was caused by the virus.

One republican senator sold about 60 million worth of stock just a couple of days before trump closed the U.S border. Nancy pelosi just bought a whole mountain of tesla calls literally the day before biden executive ordered federal vehicles to be electric. This kind of stuff is absolutely endless.

Are you seriously going to sit here and genuinely argue that politicians don't insider trade basically constantly?


Again, why does this logic apply with chief exec's buying/selling what they control but not politicians buying/selling whatever they control?

Our economy has been in a gradual decline for te last 8 years and long before the virus came along. In so far as the markets go, the virus was just a trigger. Besides market continued to trend strongly for months whilst even while the virus was in news.The correction was well overdue and if it wasn't the virus then something else would have triggered a correction albeit not with the same speed and depth because time was up for the trend for that leg up.
Everyday people look to justify what the market has done after it has already moved.
For example many attribute the crash during 9/11 to a terrorist attack, but the markets where in decline well before that, and it was just a trigger for the final capitualtion.
Back in 1929 when the stockmarket crashed the government of the day had no idea why it happened as fundamentals where shown to be strong shortly before( which is usually the case before a crash, everything seems normal). They appointed economist Edward Dewey to to find the reasons for the crash. His findings? Simple: It was cyclical, when time is up and the market has reached an extreme, the trend must change. The same in 1987

 

[over9k]

Our economy has been in a gradual decline for te last 8 years and long before the virus came along. In so far as the markets go, the virus was just a trigger. The correction was well overdue and if it wasn't the virus then something else would have triggered a correction albeit not with the same speed and depth because time was up for the trend for that leg up.
Everyday people look to justify what the market has done after it has already moved.
For example many attribute the crash during 9/11 to a terrorist attack, but the markets where in decline well before that, and it was just a trigger for the final capitualtion.
Back in 1929 when the stockmarket crashed the government of the day had no idea why it happened as fundamentals where shown to be strong shortly before( which is usually the case before a crash, everything seems normal). They appointed economist Edward Dewey to to find the reasons for the crash. His findings? Simple: It was cyclical, when time is up and the market has reached an extreme, the trend must change. The same in 1987

The economy has been in decline for a hell of a lot longer than 8 years.

Take a look at the debt graphs (both public and private) and that'll tell you everything you need to know. Much of the western world has been running on little more than credit expansion for an entire generation.

The question is when everyone are going to be tapped out and what are the politicians going to do about it. As I keep saying, internal demand from credit is only one piece of the puzzle. There's a lot of external demand that can be tapped yet.

 

[gartley]

The economy has been in decline for a hell of a lot longer than 8 years.

Take a look at the debt graphs (both public and private) and that'll tell you everything you need to know. Much of the western world has been running on little more than credit expansion for an entire generation.

The question is when everyone are going to be tapped out and what are the politicians going to do about it. As I keep saying, internal demand from credit is only one piece of the puzzle. There's a lot of external demand that can be tapped yet.

Agreed. But most of the damage and the loss of the industries that built this country has been recent, although they where in decline before that little has been done by the government of the day to support and save them.

 

[joeno]

I have a property in Sydney. While i'm not bullish on property and have not gained much from the investment, it's still better than Aussie trash cash. Which in turn is better than the joke that is US dollars.

I put it roughly around Gold. Defensive investment. Too bad it ran up quite a lot after the GFC so it's likely we're going to get mediocre returns ranging around 0-5% for the next 5-10 years. Before we have another property bull run.

 

[over9k]

Agreed. But most of the damage and the loss of the industries that built this country has been recent, although they where in decline before that little has been done by the government of the day to support and save them.

But again, it doesn't matter. We're only here to discuss what will happen with housing and why and how to make money.

There's plenty of bullets the powers that be can still fire at housing, this is a fact.

 

[againsthegrain]

But again, it doesn't matter. We're only here to discuss what will happen with housing and why and how to make money.

There's plenty of bullets the powers that be can still fire at housing, this is a fact.

So where and how do you keep tabs on what the politicians currently hold buy or sell? How do you know when a sell off is happening if it is not in the media?

 

[sptrawler]

Agreed. But most of the damage and the loss of the industries that built this country has been recent, although they where in decline before that little has been done by the government of the day to support and save them.

The history of the decline in manufacturing in Australia started in the 1970's, accelerated through the 1980-90's and has basically been a lost cause since the early 2000's.
We have discussed it endlessly on the forum, once tariffs were dismantled and globalistation (build it in the cheapest place) started, Australia's manufacturing didn't stand a chance.

Research

Research

www.aph.gov.au

 

[jbocker]

Like I've said before, there's two politicians in the country that don't own an investment property. Two. Fill in the blanks from there.

Wow. that is a precise number.

So where and how do you keep tabs on what the politicians currently hold buy or sell? How do you know when a sell off is happening if it is not in the media?

Do politicians have to disclose their investment info (in the case of IPs)? I thought that most would be hidden inside alternative names, eg spouse, trusts, companies and other? holdings). I appreciate that they probably do need to disclose the information somewhere and it could be discoverable using things like IP data although not sure this links back to the person when its held in a company.
Yes if all the pollies were to dump their IPs, it would be a sure sign of doom.

 

[againsthegrain]

Wow. that is a precise number.

Do politicians have to disclose their investment info (in the case of IPs)? I thought that most would be hidden inside alternative names, eg spouse, trusts, companies and other? holdings). I appreciate that they probably do need to disclose the information somewhere and it could be discoverable using things like IP data although not sure this links back to the person when its held in a company.
Yes if all the pollies were to dump their IPs, it would be a sure sign of doom.

Thats right however it would be well too late for the average aussie or mum and dad investor, it could be happening right now and we wouldn't know until the dust settled - just a example

Just referencing this

Took the words right out of my mouth.

So in the meantime, if the politicians hold - we hold.

 

[over9k]

Ok so you guys are obviously looking for my sources on a lot of this stuff, so what I'll say is that macrobusiness is your bible with this



With that being said - there's a lot of people that keep their fingers on this particular pulse. Follow the right news services/people and you'll get the information pretty quickly. e.g https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...icians-own-a-staggering-524-properties-2017-4

All you need to do with most of this kind of stuff is just follow the handful of services that are actually worth following and just check in on them each day. It takes a few minutes a day at most. That's it. And this is true for almost everything.

 

[againsthegrain]

Ok so you guys are obviously looking for my sources on a lot of this stuff, so what I'll say is that macrobusiness is your bible with this

Last time I checked the stats it was about 96% of politicians owned a property however around 50%, some sources say 2/3 own a investment property, and yes just a brief google search as I really have no stakes here

 

[againsthegrain]

Ok so you guys are obviously looking for my sources on a lot of this stuff, so what I'll say is that macrobusiness is your bible with this



With that being said - there's a lot of people that keep their fingers on this particular pulse. Follow the right news services/people and you'll get the information pretty quickly. e.g https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...icians-own-a-staggering-524-properties-2017-4

All you need to do with most of this kind of stuff is just follow the handful of services that are actually worth following and just check in on them each day. It takes a few minutes a day at most. That's it. And this is true for almost everything.

Yeah but that article is APR 20, 2017, 5:26 PM

 

[over9k]

Yeah that post was a 30 second google search. But you can see how easy it was to get a precise number (though that particular article is obviously out of date now). You can see how it was a goldmine at the date of publication though.

Again, this is not hard stuff to find if you're willing to spend a bit of time looking. It's even easier if you just follow the kind of services that you pay a subscription fee to do it for you

 

[againsthegrain]

Yeah that post was a 30 second google search. But you can see how easy it was to get a precise number (though that particular article is obviously out of date now). You can see how it was a goldmine at the date of publication though.

Again, this is not hard stuff to find if you're willing to spend a bit of time looking. It's even easier if you just follow the kind of services that you pay a subscription fee to do it for you

I know what you are saying, but on the flip side what I am trying to get at is when I buy a stock I can look at live data, market depth, recent announcements, see if any substantial changes to holdings took place etc.

Googling around and getting secondary or worse info from news portals which usually lag with stats and info isn't exactly keeping tabs and following what the pollies are holding.

If I was balls deep say $1m in property and sweating trying to mirror politician's moves im not sure those sources would do for me.

Just saying you don't know who's doing what until the party is over, right now music is playing still.

p.s as we all agree on 1 thing, politicians only care about their own interests, so once they exit at a good time screw the rest

 

[sptrawler]

Here is something from 2014 and 2017, I'm sure there are newer reports, but they are interesting.

Aussie politicians and their $300 million property portfolio

Are politicians' own vested interests driving flawed reforms that actually increase house prices? Research and commentary compiled by David Lindsay, Philip Soos and Paul Egan.

independentaustralia.net

How many properties does your local politician own?

Search our list of politicians' real estate holdings and find out how much your local member owns.

www.abc.net.au

 

[gartley]

The history of the decline in manufacturing in Australia started in the 1970's, accelerated through the 1980-90's and has basically been a lost cause since the early 2000's.
We have discussed it endlessly on the forum, once tariffs were dismantled and globalistation (build it in the cheapest place) started, Australia's manufacturing didn't stand a chance.

Research

Research

www.aph.gov.au

Agreed, and having worked in the auto industry for 35 years I saw this happening first hand. But it's the predecessors of the current government Abbott/Hockey that accelerated the process and put the final nails in the coffin. Toyota had made a commitment to continue manufacturing in Australia until 2023. Now Scummo says we made a mistake and need to revive it. Too late, once those skills are gone it will take a long time to bring them back.

 

[Smurf1976]

For example many attribute the crash during 9/11 to a terrorist attack, but the markets where in decline well before that, and it was just a trigger for the final capitualtion.

If someone looked purely at the sequence of events, they'd conclude that stock market declines cause planes to crash into buildings not the reverse. It was as you say well underway before anyone heard of 11 September as being anything other than simply a date or for those watching more closely a protest group.

 

[Smurf1976]

The economy has been in decline for a hell of a lot longer than 8 years.

Reminds me of a discussion I had with someone I worked with circa 2002-03. Remember it extremely well due to their furious response to my comment that Holden and Ford were both doomed at least in Australia and it was just a question of the detail of when they'd close.

That was the point I grasped the concept that religious-like beliefs have a far wider application than actual religion as such. Holden was a religion of sorts, so was Ford, so is "house prices always go up", so are a few other things. Challenge someone's religion at your peril.

The writing was however well and truly on the wall at that time which is my point. It just took the next 15 years to play out which is an important point - you can be right about something but it can take so long to actually occur that the prediction isn't of any real use in practice.

Same could be said about housing. There's an abundance of reasons why it "should" crash and that's been the case for years but never underestimate the inventiveness of those who seek to kick the can down the road. However long logic says it ought to take, it'll take far longer in practice.

 

[gartley]

Same could be said about housing. There's an abundance of reasons why it "should" crash and that's been the case for years but never underestimate the inventiveness of those who seek to kick the can down the road. However long logic says it ought to take, it'll take far longer in practice.

When I first started trading about 25 years ago I remember going to a seminar and the speaker was presenting his thoughts about investor psychology/behavoiur. One key element of his presentation has stuck with me to this day, It takes no skill to find yourself in a winning trade, but very few know when to get out. The market will do what it wants, it can be a short trend or a long trend no one knows, and what we need to decide is 1/ Is it a good time to jump on board and how much will it cost me to see if this trend continues or not, 2/ If we are on board is the trend at risk?