I think you and I are looking at housing differently, I see it as a basic requirement for building and maintaining a productive and safe society, and left in the hands of greedy pollies and banks will not meet its primary need, shelter, I did not see it as an asset class to trade for profit as a general rule. That is for the building and development of businesses which in turn can help provide for need one shelter through employment and wage growth.
But each to their own.
Our economy has been in a gradual decline for te last 8 years and long before the virus came along. In so far as the markets go, the virus was just a trigger. Besides market continued to trend strongly for months whilst even while the virus was in news.The correction was well overdue and if it wasn't the virus then something else would have triggered a correction albeit not with the same speed and depth because time was up for the trend for that leg up.You know full well the crash in the market was caused by the virus.
One republican senator sold about 60 million worth of stock just a couple of days before trump closed the U.S border. Nancy pelosi just bought a whole mountain of tesla calls literally the day before biden executive ordered federal vehicles to be electric. This kind of stuff is absolutely endless.
Are you seriously going to sit here and genuinely argue that politicians don't insider trade basically constantly?
Again, why does this logic apply with chief exec's buying/selling what they control but not politicians buying/selling whatever they control?
The economy has been in decline for a hell of a lot longer than 8 years.Our economy has been in a gradual decline for te last 8 years and long before the virus came along. In so far as the markets go, the virus was just a trigger. The correction was well overdue and if it wasn't the virus then something else would have triggered a correction albeit not with the same speed and depth because time was up for the trend for that leg up.
Everyday people look to justify what the market has done after it has already moved.
For example many attribute the crash during 9/11 to a terrorist attack, but the markets where in decline well before that, and it was just a trigger for the final capitualtion.
Back in 1929 when the stockmarket crashed the government of the day had no idea why it happened as fundamentals where shown to be strong shortly before( which is usually the case before a crash, everything seems normal). They appointed economist Edward Dewey to to find the reasons for the crash. His findings? Simple: It was cyclical, when time is up and the market has reached an extreme, the trend must change. The same in 1987
Agreed. But most of the damage and the loss of the industries that built this country has been recent, although they where in decline before that little has been done by the government of the day to support and save them.The economy has been in decline for a hell of a lot longer than 8 years.
Take a look at the debt graphs (both public and private) and that'll tell you everything you need to know. Much of the western world has been running on little more than credit expansion for an entire generation.
The question is when everyone are going to be tapped out and what are the politicians going to do about it. As I keep saying, internal demand from credit is only one piece of the puzzle. There's a lot of external demand that can be tapped yet.
But again, it doesn't matter. We're only here to discuss what will happen with housing and why and how to make money.Agreed. But most of the damage and the loss of the industries that built this country has been recent, although they where in decline before that little has been done by the government of the day to support and save them.
But again, it doesn't matter. We're only here to discuss what will happen with housing and why and how to make money.
There's plenty of bullets the powers that be can still fire at housing, this is a fact.
The history of the decline in manufacturing in Australia started in the 1970's, accelerated through the 1980-90's and has basically been a lost cause since the early 2000's.Agreed. But most of the damage and the loss of the industries that built this country has been recent, although they where in decline before that little has been done by the government of the day to support and save them.
Wow. that is a precise number.Like I've said before, there's two politicians in the country that don't own an investment property. Two. Fill in the blanks from there.
Do politicians have to disclose their investment info (in the case of IPs)? I thought that most would be hidden inside alternative names, eg spouse, trusts, companies and other? holdings). I appreciate that they probably do need to disclose the information somewhere and it could be discoverable using things like IP data although not sure this links back to the person when its held in a company.So where and how do you keep tabs on what the politicians currently hold buy or sell? How do you know when a sell off is happening if it is not in the media?
Wow. that is a precise number.
Do politicians have to disclose their investment info (in the case of IPs)? I thought that most would be hidden inside alternative names, eg spouse, trusts, companies and other? holdings). I appreciate that they probably do need to disclose the information somewhere and it could be discoverable using things like IP data although not sure this links back to the person when its held in a company.
Yes if all the pollies were to dump their IPs, it would be a sure sign of doom.
Took the words right out of my mouth.
So in the meantime, if the politicians hold - we hold.
Ok so you guys are obviously looking for my sources on a lot of this stuff, so what I'll say is that macrobusiness is your bible with this
Ok so you guys are obviously looking for my sources on a lot of this stuff, so what I'll say is that macrobusiness is your bible with this
With that being said - there's a lot of people that keep their fingers on this particular pulse. Follow the right news services/people and you'll get the information pretty quickly. e.g https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...icians-own-a-staggering-524-properties-2017-4
All you need to do with most of this kind of stuff is just follow the handful of services that are actually worth following and just check in on them each day. It takes a few minutes a day at most. That's it. And this is true for almost everything.
Yeah that post was a 30 second google search. But you can see how easy it was to get a precise number (though that particular article is obviously out of date now). You can see how it was a goldmine at the date of publication though.
Again, this is not hard stuff to find if you're willing to spend a bit of time looking. It's even easier if you just follow the kind of services that you pay a subscription fee to do it for you
Agreed, and having worked in the auto industry for 35 years I saw this happening first hand. But it's the predecessors of the current government Abbott/Hockey that accelerated the process and put the final nails in the coffin. Toyota had made a commitment to continue manufacturing in Australia until 2023. Now Scummo says we made a mistake and need to revive it. Too late, once those skills are gone it will take a long time to bring them back.The history of the decline in manufacturing in Australia started in the 1970's, accelerated through the 1980-90's and has basically been a lost cause since the early 2000's.
We have discussed it endlessly on the forum, once tariffs were dismantled and globalistation (build it in the cheapest place) started, Australia's manufacturing didn't stand a chance.
If someone looked purely at the sequence of events, they'd conclude that stock market declines cause planes to crash into buildings not the reverse. It was as you say well underway before anyone heard of 11 September as being anything other than simply a date or for those watching more closely a protest group.For example many attribute the crash during 9/11 to a terrorist attack, but the markets where in decline well before that, and it was just a trigger for the final capitualtion.
Reminds me of a discussion I had with someone I worked with circa 2002-03. Remember it extremely well due to their furious response to my comment that Holden and Ford were both doomed at least in Australia and it was just a question of the detail of when they'd close.The economy has been in decline for a hell of a lot longer than 8 years.
When I first started trading about 25 years ago I remember going to a seminar and the speaker was presenting his thoughts about investor psychology/behavoiur. One key element of his presentation has stuck with me to this day, It takes no skill to find yourself in a winning trade, but very few know when to get out. The market will do what it wants, it can be a short trend or a long trend no one knows, and what we need to decide is 1/ Is it a good time to jump on board and how much will it cost me to see if this trend continues or not, 2/ If we are on board is the trend at risk?Same could be said about housing. There's an abundance of reasons why it "should" crash and that's been the case for years but never underestimate the inventiveness of those who seek to kick the can down the road. However long logic says it ought to take, it'll take far longer in practice.
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