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In reality the only reason we have negative gearing, is because the Government is bribing people to supply rentals, because they wanted to get out of supplying State Housing.
They know how much hard work it is with delinquent tenants, damage and maintenance.
 
Great read, some proper input Mr Borre. That woulda been preferable to your verbal vomit previously.
 
Just a though coming from an exchange on another thread
10y ago 1 aud was getting 1.1 USD.
Now 1 AUD get 0.6 USD
For an international buyer in 2020, isn't Australian RE cheaper now than it was 10y ago in usd term,?
At worse similar
And could RE price not be symptomatic of our currency decline, an inflation stability process wo name?
 
Yes you are right. At that time some Aussies were going over to the USA buying distressed residential units and they did alright out of it, except for a couple that were murdered by disgruntled tenants. Yep, so now those USA citizens can buy our real estate at a discount all these years later. Definitely has something to do with our currency going down.
 
On the bigger picture this analysis is unsettling. I think all the points are quite valid. Bringing them together on one list is daunting.
If correct collapsing property values will be just one outcome.

Ten reasons why a 'Greater Depression' for the 2020s is inevitable
Nouriel Roubini
Ominous and risky trends were around long before Covid-19, making an L-shaped depression very likely

After the 2007-09 financial crisis, the imbalances and risks pervading the global economy were exacerbated by policy mistakes. So, rather than address the structural problems that the financial collapse and ensuing recession revealed, governments mostly kicked the can down the road, creating major downside risks that made another crisis inevitable. And now that it has arrived, the risks are growing even more acute. Unfortunately, even if the Greater Recession leads to a lacklustre U-shaped recovery this year, an L-shaped “Greater Depression” will follow later in this decade, owing to 10 ominous and risky trends.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-depression-for-the-2020s-is-inevitable-covid
 

So we all as Australian citizens need to answer the following questions:
  • Is shelter a basic need?
  • Should shelter be for Australians and not an investment vehicle for foreigners?
  • Does having some of the highest property prices in the world benefit Australians?
  • Having high property prices (with a large debts associated with) make for a better society?
  • Do our politicians or better, our political parties produce policies that will provide the same or better standard of living for Australians.
So as I type, I reflect on one word that I have used, Australians.

Did our for fathers fights for being Australian, is it acceptable to be national.

I don't know. But everyone in this great country should be able to access one of the 4 basic needs to survive, shelter

Should we as a nation be more focused on innovation, productivity and well being (f--k we has some of the best beaches in the world, some of the most incredible landscapes in the world, we should appreciate them)?

If we as Australians want to be like the US, China and the rest of the world. I am moving to Tasmania.
 
Firstly I agree with your sentiments, however you have to remember the only place where prices are stupid are Melbourne, Sydney area.

Something has to be done about that, I think it needs more of a surgical approach, rather than a sledge hammer approach that hits areas that have been struggling for years.
The land tax rather than stamp duty may help, as the holding costs will be higher, also land banking by wealthy developers will be hammered.

There was a suggestion at the last election to remove negative gearing from established homes and only allow it on new builds, as this apparently would encourage new builds for rentals.
IMO I think that would hammer the rental market, as it would encourage the rich to buy cheap property and land bank until the vacancy rates fell to the point that building the rental would be attractive.

Why not remove negative gearing from new builds and allow first home buyers to claim a tax deduction on their mortgage interest? Then the first home buyers are getting the help, instead of the rich landlords, who can afford to build new properties to rent?
 
The quickest way to ease pressure in the Capitals is to stop the flood of people into Oz

After CV19 that may well happen, surely we will close the borders until we work our way out of this mess
 
however you have to remember the only place where prices are stupid are Melbourne, Sydney area.

I agree Syd and Mel are stupid prices, but can you elaborate on other areas in Australia that are not?

Before you do, I ask you to look at the region and its ability to provide an income and not just comapre a one bedroom apartment in Sydney to a 3 bedroom house 3 hours drive away for the center.
 
The quickest way to ease pressure in the Capitals is to stop the flood of people into Oz

After CV19 that may well happen, surely we will close the borders until we work our way out of this mess
IMO it may well happen in the short term, but alas I think in the long term the immigration will continue.
Australia without immigration has a falling birth rate, everyone screams about immigration, but the fact is we enjoy our lifestyle and don't want it ruined by paying for kids.
The other fact is, in reality to support business and manufacturing growth and with it our lifestyle, we need a bigger market place at home.
So there is two options:
Option 1. Immigration.

Option 2. Encourage people in Australia to have more children. The problem with that is married couples lose a lot of money, when the wife stops work to have children, so they only have one or two kids.
The Government tried to overcome that to some degree by introducing child support, which encourages Australians to have children and lessens the financial impact.

The problem is the general public don't like it, as it is seen as middle class welfare, so the outcome is the only people who have extra children, are those on welfare who get extra for having them and the public like that.

So immigration is here to stay, until we have a self supporting population, at the moment the only 'Australians' with an increasing population is the aboriginals and migrants from memory.
 
If you bought property 3 years ago, it was clearly a dumb choice. Now i'd say it's reasonable considering how worthless the AUD is. A decent house in Sydney is $800,000AUD. This would've been $1mm+ in '17. $800k is about $500k USD. Not exactly expensive for a capital city.

It's obvious the govt has gone the route of saving housing (as well as boosting export industry) by devaluing the AUD to make it one of the WORST performing currencies in the developed world. I foresee an even greater rate of inflation in the next few years.
 
Well in W.A prices are down a long way from the peak, I can give you an honest example close to home.
My son had two properties that he sold about 6 months ago, so that he could purchase a new PPR.
The first house was a duplex 10klm from Perth CBD he bought it 25years ago for $65k sold $200k, that isn't a lot of gain in 25 years. The second property was in the goldfields bought 15 years ago for $250k, sold $165k.
Most of W.A is in the doldrums and has been since the mining boom finished, I can't comment on Eastern States, but whatever Federal changes are made affect W.A as well.
I just quickly googled new appartments close to Perth, the Precinct starts at $478k in a very upmarket suburb and area.
http://saltproperty.com.au/project/precinct-mount-pleasant/

Here is a better link.
https://www.norupwilson.com/projects/current-projects/the-precinct-mount-pleasant

So you can imagine how much an older style apartment in the same area is valued at, imagine trying to sell it if investors can't negative gear yours, but can negative gear one of those new apartments?
 
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That will get you on the river in Perth, about 10klm out, I would guess the same applies in Tassie and S.A.

The Government hasn't devalued the dollar, our currency is floated and it is valued by the international money markets.
The RBA has been trying to drop the value of our currency for quite some time, by dropping interest rates, but it remained stubbornly high until very recently.
The reason ours is one of the worst performing currencies, is because it is one of the worst performing economies, we are basically a one trick pony 'mining'.
We are just lucky, we don't have a large population, so we can have a first World lifestyle with a third World economy.
It wont last IMO.
 
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Here is another example from Perth, in a cheaper area but just as close, $378k.
http://www.vantageperth.com.au/

https://offtheplan.com.au/properties/vantage-riversedge-apartment/

Again, like I said, you can imagine what prices out in the suburbs are like.
 

well Australia has a better case than many other "first world" countries. I'm in the UK now. it's propped up by some fragile financial services businesses that can be outsourced to India. it's Australia minus the land and resources.

US is even worse. He's the druggie thatowes everyone money to fuel his addiction. Home of propaganda, political espionage, and irony to call itself a "open market capitalist" society with all of the market manipulation lately.

Anyways Australia will likely not meet the same fate as Japan. we'll sacrifice savers and force people to spend their steadily worthless currency while assets like property keep rising (in terms of AUD that is).
 
rental dynamics are changing
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04...rge-prices-drop-airbnb-holiday-homes/12199262
 

Id hate to have a empty rental on the market now, or moving from short stay to long stay rental, going to be sitting empty for a good 6 months.

Can't rent, nobody will buy

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...s/news-story/7b39053d950388d5acc73cf15c64d7fa
 
? Nice summary of history but seems an incomplete view of rental housing.

Obviously a redux to a few hundred words 'incomplete'...
What gives more BIG picture detail is Picketty's 'Capital in The 21st Century'... see within these pg's the importance of the capital/income ratio... there is a limited elastisity to this ratio... And a $hit load of things that might help some contributers here...(from making fools of themselves)
DYOR
 
Not much reduction in price round my area. Even the shitty areas seem to be higher priced.
Personally even if I saw a 30% reduction I'd be thinking the prices were a tad high. Perhaps my thinking is just stuck in the past.

Imo immigration is the reason for ever higher prices. Jamming millions more people into the country will keep the prices high. Be interesting to see the aftermath of COVID.
 
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