The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

Another question is what will be the immigration intake while there is no vaccine. That would be a source of buyers and also renters which will be negligible if immigration is zero or close to zero.

So, good buying opportunities for those who have the money, another case of the rich getting richer.

Or those who have time and a deposit on their side.
Genuine first home buyers should be fine, interest rates at 0 and a 30 year loan magic, if you have saved a deposit and are employed.
So in reality a great opportunity may present in the near future for the not so rich.

 

[qldfrog]

So, good buying opportunities for those who have the money, another case of the rich getting richer.

ahh ideology...Too ingrained
Most of the losses will be with the so called rich
It is actually a great opportunity for the not so rich, unless anyone with a job is rich....bloody bastards
Seriously SirRumpole who is losing money so far?
tenants or landlords?

 

[sptrawler]

So, good buying opportunities for those who have the money, another case of the rich getting richer.

Another thing Rumpy, you can't have it all ways, when silly Billy was going to decimate established home prices you said it was great.
But the rich would have cleaned up, with that plan.
The rich will always get richer, because they have money to invest.

 

[satanoperca]

I believe it will be many months before we see the true fallout of the current situation on property price, but note :

• Interest rates can only go up now, well they can go down maybe 25 basis points and then that is it
• Unemployment to sky rocket and will take years to return to pre virus levels
• Many small businesses will close up shop, many small businesses have loans secured against their PPOR
• Airbnb will get hit hard
• Reduced immigration
• Tourism smashed
• Banks reluctant to lend
• A guess but LVR's will be dramatically reduced
• Heading into a recession

So guess would be a minimum 20% fall from peak, but could go further. If they don't I all in on property, if the current situation cannot return values to a reasonable level, nothing will apart from all out war, which is still a possibility with old Trump looking for escape goats.

 

[Humid]

Another thing Rumpy, you can't have it all ways, when silly Billy was going to decimate established home prices you said it was great.
But the rich would have cleaned up, with that plan.
The rich will always get richer, because they have money to invest.

You can but things need to be capped

 

[sptrawler]

You can but things need to be capped

Yes lift the top tax bracket back to 60cents as it used to be, that caps the rich, introduce it at $180k.

Personal income tax top marginal rate



Only joking, you are right everything requires a sliding scale applied to it, as no matter what it is if there is a line between getting something and not getting it, there will be inequity.

 

[SirRumpole]

Another thing Rumpy, you can't have it all ways, when silly Billy was going to decimate established home prices you said it was great.

That's your opinion of the effect of Labor's policy, but we'll never know will we ?

Unless the Libs are so strapped for cash that they'll have to swallow their pride and adopt Labor's policy.

 

[Junior]

Yes lift the top tax bracket back to 60cents as it used to be, that caps the rich, introduce it at $180k.

Personal income tax top marginal rate



Only joking, you are right everything requires a sliding scale applied to it, as no matter what it is if there is a line between getting something and not getting it, there will be inequity.

I don't mind a higher MTR, but $180k is waaay too low IMO. That's one area where Bill stuffed up. He talked about the 'top end of town' but his policies were set to smash the middle class more than anything.

 

[sptrawler]

I don't mind a higher MTR, but $180k is waaay too low IMO. That's one area where Bill stuffed up. He talked about the 'top end of town' but his policies were set to smash the middle class more than anything.

I was just highlighting, to someone on $250k, how they in years gone by would have been hammered lol.
From memory the 60% tax rate cut in at about $35k in 1986, that was what a foreman in the workshop was on, so any O/T was taxed at 60 cents in the dollar.

Also they were probably paying a mortgage at 18% interest, now those people are despised if they saved to self fund.
We have produced a weird society, that will implode on its own IMO, jeez I hope this recession is really bad a reality check is way overdue.

 

[qldfrog]

I hope this recession is really bad a reality check is way overdue

While i agree reality check overdue, i do not hope it is really bad, as really bad means everything will be seized from me, and i do not have time to rebuilt here or oversea.
No lesson learnt, push for increased taxation already
By the same people who opposed budget cut during the good times and slugged us with NDIS and cie
A proper economy is balanced and repay debt during the good years to smooth the effect during bad ones..well, that was valid till Howard, but now we start from the gutter.

 

[Humid]

I was just highlighting, to someone on $250k, how they in years gone by would have been hammered lol.
From memory the 60% tax rate cut in at about $35k in 1986, that was what a foreman in the workshop was on, so any O/T was taxed at 60 cents in the dollar.

Also they were probably paying a mortgage at 18% interest, now those people are despised if they saved to self fund.
We have produced a weird society, that will implode on its own IMO, jeez I hope this recession is really bad a reality check is way overdue.

I have a mixed group of friends most will be self funded some will need assistance
No one despises anyone
Find some new friends

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Also they were probably paying a mortgage at 18% interest, now those people are despised if they saved to self fund.

Oh come off it, the rate was less than 18%, for a couple of years, then it started to go down every year from then.



Meanwhile

• inflation in the 80s was running 8% average,
• wage price growth 3.5%
• house prices trading 3x the average annual wage, so you can save for a 20% deposit in

So you got to lever up into a real asset at cheap valuations with inflation running hot and a 30 year bear market in rates. And all the while banks are letting you buy more houses using bull market equity, unlike anywhere else in the world.

Not despised for saving to self fund. If anyone like that is despised it is because they were so lucky and yet usually take any opportunity to make such tone deaf and ridiculous comments to people who are in a completely different economic environment.

We have produced a weird society, that will implode on its own IMO, jeez I hope this recession is really bad a reality check is way overdue.

Ever stop to consider that it's your perception that is weird?

What a disgusting thing to say, that you hope a recession is going to be really bad.

 

[sptrawler]

What a disgusting thing to say, that you hope a recession is going to be really bad.

Why? people have done nothing but complain about over inflated asset prices for the last 10 years, now the time comes when there is a chance that asset prices can be reset to realistic levels and everyone gets out of shape about it.
There is every chance after a recession, that the young people will be able to get into the housing market again, usually it is only the geared that get hammered heavily in a recession.
Time some people took a spoon of cement, princess.

 

[Humid]

Lol boomer on roids

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Why? people have done nothing but complain about over inflated asset prices for the last 10 years, now the time comes when there is a chance that asset prices can be reset to realistic levels and everyone gets out of shape about it.

What kind of bull**** myopic thinking makes up your brain?

People die more in recessions. People can't get medical care as easily. Homelessness goes up. Domestic violence goes up.

What the ****.

 

[sptrawler]

What kind of bull**** myopic thinking makes up your brain?

People die more in recessions. People can't get medical care as easily. Homelessness goes up. Domestic violence goes up.

What the ****.

Don't talk nonsense, those on welfare stay on welfare, those who lose a job go on welfare, the rich get poorer. The poor stay poor.
Get a life mate. Not everyone works on the top floor of the stock exchange.
Believe it or not the real workers will still be working, someone has to pick up the rubbish.

 

[sptrawler]

The Mascot Towers saga continues.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw...-skyrocket-by-10-million-20200416-p54kb6.html
Mascot Towers owners will be asked to consider selling the complex which has been cracked since June last year following an escalation in remediation costs.

Remediation works were initially forecast to be between $12 million and $20 million, but have now skyrocketed by an additional $10 million.
The owners will be asked to consider selling or repurposing the building, possibly into affordable housing, at an extraordinary general meeting, most likely to be conducted via a video link. The date is yet to be set.

 

[PZ99]

Why? people have done nothing but complain about over inflated asset prices for the last 10 years, now the time comes when there is a chance that asset prices can be reset to realistic levels and everyone gets out of shape about it.
There is every chance after a recession, that the young people will be able to get into the housing market again, usually it is only the geared that get hammered heavily in a recession.
Time some people took a spoon of cement, princess.

I seem to remember saying something similar before the election regarding the Neg gearing

But falling house prices in a recession combined with high debt leading to negative equity is bad news all round for everyone whether it's self inflicted or not. Just my view

 

[sptrawler]

I seem to remember saying something similar before the election regarding the Neg gearing

But falling house prices in a recession combined with high debt leading to negative equity is bad news all round for everyone whether it's self inflicted or not. Just my view

It has to happen, otherwise asset values just continue to rise unabated, then the gap between the have and have nots just gets bigger and bigger.
There really isn't a nice way of resetting, the elastic band gets streched and streched, then something comes along and twang it comes screaming back.
What would the price of a house in Sydney or Melbourne be, in 10 years, if they just continued on their merry way?
I agree with you regarding negative gearing, as usual it was the implementation method that was crazy.

 

[PZ99]

It has to happen, otherwise asset values just continue to rise unabated, then the gap between the have and have nots just gets bigger and bigger.
There really isn't a nice way of resetting, the elastic band gets streched and streched, then something comes along and twang it comes screaming back.
What would the price of a house in Sydney or Melbourne be, in 10 years, if they just continued on their merry way?

Without a readjusted Govt policy they would probably blow out of proportion. It's one of the reasons I think the fed Govt should revisit negative gearing and state Govts look at their stamp duty % for expensive highrises held together with elastic bands and gold cladding