The future of Australian property prices

[wayneL]

Smart Bs would've got the hell out of Dodge at some point.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Dodge may not be the worst place to be, but only for a combo of A and B.

It will be the last place to be hit by Coronavirus.

Owning your own house is most important thing, whether outright or mortgage. Government will bail out the latter.

The geared and speculators prior virus will be toast, and to paraphrase Paul Keating " they will be done slowly " as one after another prop by the government for the economy runs out of puff.

Water, Food, Roof, Sex are the four most important, not in any particular order at any particular time imo.

In the meantime I will continue to practise Omphaloskepsis.

gg

 

[lindsayf]

Omphaloskepsis...a worthy pursuit indeed..

 

[qldfrog]

Dodge may not be the worst place to be, but only for a combo of A and B.

It will be the last place to be hit by Coronavirus.

Owning your own house is most important thing, whether outright or mortgage. Government will bail out the latter.

The geared and speculators prior virus will be toast, and to paraphrase Paul Keating " they will be done slowly " as one after another prop by the government for the economy runs out of puff.

Water, Food, Roof, Sex are the four most important, not in any particular order at any particular time imo.

In the meantime I will continue to practise Omphaloskepsis.

gg

Thanks GG, you are improving my English in every post..i had to google

 

[wayneL]

I usually find a bit of lint and wonder why I didn't have the balls to buy a helluva lot more gold than I did last year.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I usually find a bit of lint and wonder why I didn't have the balls to buy a helluva lot more gold than I did last year.

Because you've got no process or framework to buy gold?

 

[moXJO]

Because you've got no process or framework to buy gold?

Could you expand on this?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Could you expand on this?

20+ years of media/financial pundits saying gold is dumb, dead asset, no yield, etc. Spend all your time looking at financial assets.

Now maybe you feel like you want to buy gold, sense something is wrong with the official narrative, whatever.

No process or framework to understand gold as an asset class, how much you can hold, impact on overall portfolio, possible scenarios, price drivers, asset class beta, etc, etc, etc == don't know how much you can buy, feel uncomfortable buying as soon as your allocation >2-3% of your total net worth, trying to time it because you don't believe in it/understand it, etc.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Also, even if you live in Australia, probably spend all the time you look at gold charts looking at USD priced COMEX futs. Wrong chart.

 

[wayneL]

Because you've got no process or framework to buy gold?

No, because like all of us, I'm a lot smarter in hindsight.

I went 25%. if my crystal ball had have been working I would have gone a hundred percent, dammit, maybe even leveraged to the max.

Would've bought 1,000 lots of WTI a coupla days ago too.

Give me 6 months and I'll tell you what I would have bought today too

 

[InsvestoBoy]

I went 25%.

25% is plenty. What would you have done if it had dropped by 50%? What will you do if it drops by 50% today?

 

[wayneL]

25% is plenty. What would you have done if it had dropped by 50%? What will you do if it drops by 50% today?

I'll tell you in 6 months. I will be smarter about today by then.

 

[Trendnomics]

In your mind (every time you hear it), replace "Ireland" with "Australia" - and add a dash of aussie accent.

Luckily I'm not relying on property in any shape or form to reach FIRE before 40. Good luck to everyone else.

A quote from this video: "........and then something happens........" *cough* *cough*

 

[sptrawler]

This is going to get very ugly, very soon.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...avirus-rent-strike-grows-20200407-p54hwo.html
From the article:
A letter to landlords in the Yarra City Council area sent on March 31 on behalf of 24 renters said they would "not be paying rent, starting in April".

"We believe that housing is a right. During this crisis, all landlords and agents should work hard to support people's basic needs," the letter said.

Among the demands made by the group are an indefinite amnesty on rent and mortgage payments, a continued ban on all evictions until everyone had recovered from the crisis, no debts, fines or retaliatory rent hikes for tenants, and no adverse rental histories for those who do not pay rent.

The rent and mortgage strike campaign is targeting particular areas in Melbourne, Sydney and Queensland. The suburb-based Facebook group is being run by the Industrial Workers of the World, known as ‘the Wobblies,’ an international socialist group not affiliated with the Australian Council of Trade Unions or particular workplaces.

I wonder who is going to pay the mortgage on the rental?

There could be some cheap rental properties on the market, when this event is over.
Just my opinion.

 

[againsthegrain]

This is going to get very ugly, very soon.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...avirus-rent-strike-grows-20200407-p54hwo.html
From the article:
A letter to landlords in the Yarra City Council area sent on March 31 on behalf of 24 renters said they would "not be paying rent, starting in April".

"We believe that housing is a right. During this crisis, all landlords and agents should work hard to support people's basic needs," the letter said.

Among the demands made by the group are an indefinite amnesty on rent and mortgage payments, a continued ban on all evictions until everyone had recovered from the crisis, no debts, fines or retaliatory rent hikes for tenants, and no adverse rental histories for those who do not pay rent.

The rent and mortgage strike campaign is targeting particular areas in Melbourne, Sydney and Queensland. The suburb-based Facebook group is being run by the Industrial Workers of the World, known as ‘the Wobblies,’ an international socialist group not affiliated with the Australian Council of Trade Unions or particular workplaces.

I wonder who is going to pay the mortgage on the rental?

There could be some cheap rental properties on the market, when this event is over.
Just my opinion.

After corona virus many things will change, with property not being a safe and cushy investment it looks like it

 

[sptrawler]

The apartment train wreck continues, sad for off the plan purchasers.
https://www.domain.com.au/news/off-...age&utm_medium=link&utm_content=pos5&ref=pos1

 

[qldfrog]

Could be a boost for acreage and big lot / semi rural properties. downsizing to live in a cube in the city sharing everything with the public, lift, pool, doors, ..you do not need a car, get a uber, reuse your plastic bags and coffee mugs..yeah right...
Why not be semi self sufficient by the sea or the trees, remotely working the same anyway, leave the cbd and inner cities to the new migrants refugees and students
Few want the NY lifestyle now...

 

[Humid]

Could be a boost for acreage and big lot / semi rural properties. downsizing to live in a cube in the city sharing everything with the public, lift, pool, doors, ..you do not need a car, get a uber, reuse your plastic bags and coffee mugs..yeah right...
Why not be semi self sufficient by the sea or the trees, remotely working the same anyway, leave the cbd and inner cities to the new migrants refugees and students
Few want the NY lifestyle now...

Ideally have both

 

[qldfrog]

Ideally have both

Got, but in case of lockdown you have to choose a main place of residence and having 2vplaces is a bit of a drain$ wise

 

[SirRumpole]

Some questions you need to ask yourself about property right now:

Will the population continue to grow over the next few years? I think no growth or negative growth is possible.

Will the Chinese continue to invest into the Australian Property Market? They have pretty much stopped now, they wont invest into a falling market, plus tighter restrictions may come in once the Government realize our reliance on China.

Will interest rates go up? Probably not anytime soon

Will unemployment go up? Pretty sure unemployment will increase over the next few years, the flow on effect is less people spending money, thats less people buying houses. We have not seen the effects of this yet.

Will the pass on of wealth from the elderly push the market along? I dont think so, people will want to pay down debt, so I can see people paying off home loans from inheritances.

Will rents rise over the next few years? I doubt it for the reasons above, less people, less money. People will stay at home longer, yields will continue to drop.

How will commercial property go over the next few years? Its going to be a wild wild ride, I think it will get smashed initially, but when this is all over could be a boom if countries like australia try to invest into into factories and producing stuff themselves.

I dont think we will see a property crash, but I think a declining market over the next 5 years will be the norm - see whats been happening in Perth the last few years and apply that to the rest of Australia and 30% drops..

Another question is what will be the immigration intake while there is no vaccine. That would be a source of buyers and also renters which will be negligible if immigration is zero or close to zero.

So, good buying opportunities for those who have the money, another case of the rich getting richer.