The future of Australian property prices

[moXJO]

I dont think its that hard to judge given the expected 7% plus unemployment rate to come I would expect it to be much higher.

If that happens last decent recession it took 14 years to get back any where close to the unemployment figures where it all started.

The unemployment this time around will likely be right thought all levels, that's a lot of mortgages to try and prop up or fall over.

Just cannot see it looking that good for demand or pricing.

We won't see those ridiculous highs again.

But last crash we saw:
record high interest rates.

I don't think they stimulated into the market.

We weren't China's supermarket.

In saying that we are probably in a worse position these days in all reality. Time will tell though.

 

[jbocker]

I dont think its that hard to judge given the expected 7% plus unemployment rate to come I would expect it to be much higher.

If that happens last decent recession it took 14 years to get back any where close to the unemployment figures where it all started.

The unemployment this time around will likely be right thought all levels, that's a lot of mortgages to try and prop up or fall over.

Just cannot see it looking that good for demand or pricing.

Next 14 years will see a lot of us boomers off to heaven, what will all the health care going to do for work? There will be a flush of ex boomer housing and investments out there too for all the grandkids.

 

[wayneL]

Next 14 years will see a lot of us boomers off to heaven, what will all the health care going to do for work? There will be a flush of ex boomer housing and investments out there too for all the grandkids.

Perhaps Harry Dent was correct about the boomer crash after all, just a decade or two late

 

[sptrawler]

Govt is addicted to the taxes and propping up of value. There are a huge number of rich overseas buyers. Many times our entire population. People forget the scale of overseas buyers.

If it was a choice of banks going underwater, along with everyone with an overpriced loan. Or prop up the industry so it doesn't collapse. Which one do people think the govt is going to do?
The days of letting things crash and let the market do it's thing seems to be over. Govt intervention and stimulus is the new normal.

You have to remember, both major parties want Australias population to increase a lot and we have a negative birthrate.
It isnt rocket science, what the outcome will be.

 

[satanoperca]

When unemployment shoots up, which it will who will be buying overpriced property?
IR's are as low as than can go.
Confidence is shot.
Pressure will mount on both sides of politics to reduce immigration while the economy recovers.
We haven't even started to recover from the bushfires.
Tourism will take 6-12months min to recover.
Can only see property prices going down.

Exception : govnuts allow any foreigner to park their money in Australian Property.

 

[moXJO]

Exception : govnuts allow any foreigner to park their money in Australian Property.

They also let them in if they have money. Our dollar is low and we are pretty stable otherwise. It won't go up but government intervention may stop it going down a lot as well.

 

[wayneL]

FWIW

 

[matty77]

Some questions you need to ask yourself about property right now:

Will the population continue to grow over the next few years? I think no growth or negative growth is possible.

Will the Chinese continue to invest into the Australian Property Market? They have pretty much stopped now, they wont invest into a falling market, plus tighter restrictions may come in once the Government realize our reliance on China.

Will interest rates go up? Probably not anytime soon

Will unemployment go up? Pretty sure unemployment will increase over the next few years, the flow on effect is less people spending money, thats less people buying houses. We have not seen the effects of this yet.

Will the pass on of wealth from the elderly push the market along? I dont think so, people will want to pay down debt, so I can see people paying off home loans from inheritances.

Will rents rise over the next few years? I doubt it for the reasons above, less people, less money. People will stay at home longer, yields will continue to drop.

How will commercial property go over the next few years? Its going to be a wild wild ride, I think it will get smashed initially, but when this is all over could be a boom if countries like australia try to invest into into factories and producing stuff themselves.

I dont think we will see a property crash, but I think a declining market over the next 5 years will be the norm - see whats been happening in Perth the last few years and apply that to the rest of Australia and 30% drops..

 

[banco]

Clearance rates in the 60s for melbourne and sydney and quite a few of them were sold more than a week before today.

 

[wayneL]

This guy is a PhD Economics Candidate

FWIW

 

[kid hustlr]

Of course property will slow but lololololol Martin North he's been calling it for years and years

 

[CBerg]

Of course property will slow but lololololol Martin North he's been calling it for years and years

Old saying about broken clock is never more true for Martin.

 

[orr]

I don't see the next season of 'the Block' happening...(small mercies)
The Value of Costa's Gardening Australia though ... it's on a 'rocket' ....

 

[wayneL]

Of course property will slow but lololololol Martin North he's been calling it for years and years

"It's different this time"

 

[IFocus]

Talking to a local real estate agency owner he said they just had the best three months for 11 years now.....dead and buried.

 

[sptrawler]

Talking to a local real estate agency owner he said they just had the best three months for 11 years now.....dead and buried.

That would be true, the last three months a lot of property that has been sitting for years around Mandurah, have been sold. The wife and I do a lot of cycling around and had definitely noticed it.
It is hard to see W.A property prices falling much, they have been pretty well bouncing along on the bottom for a few years, so to drop from here would be unusual IMO.
One would think Sydney would be hit by some panic selling, due to the employment problems caused by the virus, I suppose it might be delayed while these Bank honeymoon periods and stimulus money plays out.

 

[qldfrog]

Our ppor on the market still, very very niche so not surprising, will take months, but what is surprising is a lot of std house on 5 acres are being sold now..

 

[moXJO]

The new foreign buyers rules may make an impact. I know some sellers who are going to wait till all this is over.

You would think prices would reduce a lot.

 

[hja]

Our ppor on the market still, very very niche so not surprising, will take months, but what is surprising is a lot of std house on 5 acres are being sold now..

There are a lot of standard houses on a 5 acre property? Well ok, in woop woop I suppose.

There are a lot of new, useless, ugly high-rise apartments all over the place in the metro (or suburbs) areas that should be demolished and replaced with sprawled and lower density housing. That would have been more desirable in the first place!

 

[satanoperca]

Tic Tok, all going to plan.

https://www.realestate.com.au/news/...into-foreign-hands/?rsf=syn:news:nca:news:spa