The future of Australian property prices

[sptrawler]

Crash means a return to equilibrium by clearing out unsustainable excess.

Those who get hurt will be those who took extravagant risk at the expense of taxpayer subsidies like negative gearing, leveraging tax discounted superannuation and at the expense of affordability for other generations.

Don't worry, your generation will get a go, every generation does, then those who invest will make money and the next generation will complain about it...
Don't forget, there are plenty of poor baby boomers, as there will be in your generation, investment and risk is a fact of life in a capitalist system.
Put another way, would you buy a house to subsidies someone else's lifestyle, if the only hope you have of making a profit is a capital gain, if yes you shouldn't be investing.
Just my opinion.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Don't worry, your generation will get a go, every generation does, then those who invest will make money and the next generation will complain about it...
Don't forget, there are plenty of poor baby boomers, as there will be in your generation, investment and risk is a fact of life in a capitalist system.

How do you know what generation I'm in?

It's funny when people who had the Government subsidising their investments and cutting rates to protect from a healthy market for decades talk about risk in capitalism.

 

[sptrawler]

How do you know what generation I'm in?

It's funny when people who had the Government subsidising their investments and cutting rates to protect from a healthy market for decades talk about risk in capitalism.

I presume you aren't talking about me?

 

[moXJO]

A crash means most people won't have jobs or money anyway. Overseas buyers could probably outbid locals again if they haven't already changed the threshold. I already know a lot of Chinese landlords.
If drastic falls came:
Banks won't be lending (especially to young people).

Massive debt will be the last thing on most people's mind.

Investors would make hay once again.

 

[Trendnomics]

 

[wayneL]

In a laissez faire economy, I have no doubt property would tank, but let's face it, Australia has used property speculation to prop up it's economy for quite some time now.

If property tanks, we are royally screwed, hence I reckon every effort will be made to keep it (over)inflated.

 

[banco]

In a laissez faire economy, I have no doubt property would tank, but let's face it, Australia has used property speculation to prop up it's economy for quite some time now.

If property tanks, we are royally screwed, hence I reckon every effort will be made to keep it (over)inflated.

The fundamentals will swamp whatever the Government tries to do.

 

[satanoperca]

If property tanks, we are royally screwed, hence I reckon every effort will be made to keep it (over)inflated.

Agreed we would be screwed, agree that the govnuts will bankrupt the country to keep it afloat.

Can hear the shrills from the PM already, "Who could have seen this coming?"

Blind Freddie and Deaf Dandy did. Having some of the highest property prices in the world, mass immigration and grossly indebted nation. What could possibly go wrong?

 

[moXJO]

Agreed we would be screwed, agree that the govnuts will bankrupt the country to keep it afloat.

Can hear the shrills from the PM already, "Who could have seen this coming?"

Blind Freddie and Deaf Dandy did. Having some of the highest property prices in the world, mass immigration and grossly indebted nation. What could possibly go wrong?

Given the laws to lock customers money into banks just recently, feels like they knew already.

 

[satanoperca]

GMA Gemworth good forward indicator of what is going to happen to property prices

 

[No Trust]

This heading into Great Depression 2 territory...

 

[No Trust]

Spot on

A crash also means a return to better efficiency, atm we are far from it.

 

[jbocker]

A crash means most people won't have jobs or money anyway. Overseas buyers could probably outbid locals again if they haven't already changed the threshold. I already know a lot of Chinese landlords.
If drastic falls came:
Banks won't be lending (especially to young people).

Massive debt will be the last thing on most people's mind.

Investors would make hay once again.

Halt overseas buyers buying up (another round) of our housing.
Our $ must have them drooling all over themselves.

 

[againsthegrain]

Halt overseas buyers buying up (another round) of our housing.
Our $ must have them drooling all over themselves.

All the ones from China with property here are seeing their values slashed but the number of them wanting to buy in probably outweights the ones who already bough it, we really need to block this or became a state of china

 

[moXJO]

Halt overseas buyers buying up (another round) of our housing.
Our $ must have them drooling all over themselves.

Govt is addicted to the taxes and propping up of value. There are a huge number of rich overseas buyers. Many times our entire population. People forget the scale of overseas buyers.

If it was a choice of banks going underwater, along with everyone with an overpriced loan. Or prop up the industry so it doesn't collapse. Which one do people think the govt is going to do?
The days of letting things crash and let the market do it's thing seems to be over. Govt intervention and stimulus is the new normal.

 

[againsthegrain]

Govt is addicted to the taxes and propping up of value. There are a huge number of rich overseas buyers. Many times our entire population. People forget the scale of overseas buyers.

If it was a choice of banks going underwater, along with everyone with an overpriced loan. Or prop up the industry so it doesn't collapse. Which one do people think the govt is going to do?
The days of letting things crash and let the market do it's thing seems to be over. Govt intervention and stimulus is the new normal.

Means a generation of rent payers sending it straight overseas and working all the bottom jobs to service our new masters

 

[moXJO]

Means a generation of rent payers sending it straight overseas and working all the bottom jobs to service our new masters

I'd like to see prices go down. Hopefully we get a drift down to something more sensible.
But we are selling farms off to overseas buyers. That should be warning enough that money talks.
Overseas investors are not bad. Too many is the problem.

 

[wayneL]

Halt overseas buyers buying up (another round) of our housing.
Our $ must have them drooling all over themselves.

I don't believe the government will do any such thing because it is really probably only the Chinese now who can keep our overinflated real estate market propped up to some degree.

It is the real estate market / credit bubble with, admittedly some help from the minerals super cycle, that has prevented this economy hitting the skids in a big way already.

It's serious property market correction will have us in an alpha right depression unless some other miracle comes along.

there are several opportunities for Australia to prosper going forward but nobody will have the vision or the cahoneys to pursue them.

 

[IFocus]

I dont think its that hard to judge given the expected 7% plus unemployment rate to come I would expect it to be much higher.

If that happens last decent recession it took 14 years to get back any where close to the unemployment figures where it all started.

The unemployment this time around will likely be right thought all levels, that's a lot of mortgages to try and prop up or fall over.

Just cannot see it looking that good for demand or pricing.

 

[againsthegrain]

I dont think its that hard to judge given the expected 7% plus unemployment rate to come I would expect it to be much higher.

If that happens last decent recession it took 14 years to get back any where close to the unemployment figures where it all started.

The unemployment this time around will likely be right thought all levels, that's a lot of mortgages to try and prop up or fall over.

Just cannot see it looking that good for demand or pricing.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...the-wall-in-coronavirus-recession-experts-say

Some economists, such as AMP’s Shane Oliver, estimate that prices could fall as much as 20% if the recession lasts more than six months