The future of Australian property prices

[waterbottle]

Fund managers point the finger at the likely cause of the "crash" ...



http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...t-legs-say-fund-managers-20150521-gh6vi0.html

Clever these hedge fund managers eh?

I wrote this on the 4th May 2012 in this thread.

I also remember you saying that property prices were linked to credit availability and that we should "watch what the banks do" to determine what direction property would take.

Given the recent LVR restrictions and the fact that many jobs are dependent on the availability of housing credit, do you think that Sydney now has an opportunity to experience a fall in prices?

 

[ftw129]

I have been travelling the world for the last few years and although we may not live in the most "glamourous" of countries we certainly do live in one of safest, cleanest, beautiful, well run and most importantly, under populated. Further more from all the people that I've met, most dream of or plan on seeing Australia.

We really do live in a country that is the envy of the world with many millions who would love to live here and are trying.

I would not be counting on seeing any (1) significant and (2) permanent falls in property prices in this country, especially in the major capital cities on the East Coast. Not in our lifetime anyway.

The Furure of Australian Property Prices is up. Stagnation or temporary pull backs will be inevitable for sure. But nothing disastrous or permanent.

(Just my own humble opinion)

 

[ftw129]

I have been travelling the world for the last few years and although we may not live in the most "glamorous" of countries, we certainly do live in one of safest, cleanest, beautiful, diverse, well run and most importantly, under populated. Furthermore, from all the people that I've met, most dream of or plan on seeing Australia.

We really do live in a country that is the envy of the world with many millions who would love to live here and are trying.

I would not be counting on seeing any (1) significant and (2) permanent falls in property prices in this country, especially in the major capital cities on the East Coast. Not in our lifetime anyway.

The Future of Australian Property Prices is up. Stagnation or temporary pull backs will be inevitable for sure. But nothing disastrous or permanent.

(Just my own humble opinion)

(Typo fix)

 

[waterbottle]

I have been travelling the world for the last few years and although we may not live in the most "glamourous" of countries we certainly do live in one of safest, cleanest, beautiful, well run and most importantly, under populated. Further more from all the people that I've met, most dream of or plan on seeing Australia.

We really do live in a country that is the envy of the world with many millions who would love to live here and are trying.

I would not be counting on seeing any (1) significant and (2) permanent falls in property prices in this country, especially in the major capital cities on the East Coast. Not in our lifetime anyway.

The Furure of Australian Property Prices is up. Stagnation or temporary pull backs will be inevitable for sure. But nothing disastrous or permanent.

(Just my own humble opinion)

This is a silly analysis.

The "Australian" lifestyle can be found in many Western nations. There is nothing inherently unique about Australia that justifies the overinflated prices being charged, save for the fact that we pulled out all stops to bolster house prices during the GFC and made housing credit more easily available.

 

[sptrawler]

I have been travelling the world for the last few years and although we may not live in the most "glamourous" of countries we certainly do live in one of safest, cleanest, beautiful, well run and most importantly, under populated. Further more from all the people that I've met, most dream of or plan on seeing Australia.

We really do live in a country that is the envy of the world with many millions who would love to live here and are trying.

I would not be counting on seeing any (1) significant and (2) permanent falls in property prices in this country, especially in the major capital cities on the East Coast. Not in our lifetime anyway.

The Furure of Australian Property Prices is up. Stagnation or temporary pull backs will be inevitable for sure. But nothing disastrous or permanent.

(Just my own humble opinion)

I think you are spot on, Australia is a relatively young Country and does have a growing population and economy.

Therefore there will be ebbs and flows, however the GDP, population and economy will continue to grow, over the longer term.
Unlike some of the Western Countries, which have a large population, and a mature economy.

 

[ftw129]

This is a silly analysis.

The "Australian" lifestyle can be found in many Western nations. There is nothing inherently unique about Australia that justifies the overinflated prices being charged, save for the fact that we pulled out all stops to bolster house prices during the GFC and made housing credit more easily available.

The lifestyle is one thing but the quality of it is another.

The "prices being charged" are set by us, (the market) and are relative.

As I stated at the end of my original post, this is just my own humble opinion, I am in no position to make any type of analysis, even a "silly" one, as you so put it.

I am merely just trying to inject a little bit of common sense in to this ongoing, emotionally charged and passionate debate.

Just like any other market, you can have an unlimited amount of "analysis" being done by the "best" people in the business but in the end, price action, driven by market sentiment are the reality.

My point here is, that the sentiment around the world regarding Australia, is extremely positive. "Envious" even.

Over the long term, there is only one way for property prices to go. Trying to argue about why they can't or shouldn't is "interesting" but expecting them not to, is only going to cause heart ache, when those who look back 30 years from now didn't buy as much as they possibly could. I suspect, that's where a lot of the "bitterness " from some of the posters in this thread comes from.

I just wouldn't bet the house (pun intended), on prices going down. Not significantly or permanently.
Well, not in this great country, anyway 

 

[trainspotter]

I also remember you saying that property prices were linked to credit availability and that we should "watch what the banks do" to determine what direction property would take.

Given the recent LVR restrictions and the fact that many jobs are dependent on the availability of housing credit, do you think that Sydney now has an opportunity to experience a fall in prices?

Too late waterbottle.

Palm Beach houses, 2005: $2.28 million, 2015: $2.25 million
Clareville houses, 2005: $1.45 million, 2015: $1.27 million
Terrigal units, 2005: $575,000, 2015: $575,000
Gosford houses, 2005: 430,000, 2015: $465,000
Gosford units, 2005: $303,455, 2015: $325,000
Avoca Beach units, 2005: $665,000, 2015: $547,500
Pearl Beach houses, 2005: $920,000, 2015: $825,000
Katoomba units, 2005: $231,250, 2015: $270,000
The Entrance houses, 2005: $525,000, 2015: $432,500

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...lling-conditions/story-fncq3era-1227365747081

Go talk to this guy about WHERE to buy http://www.wheregroup.com.au/

(I am not affiliated in any way nor do I recommend his services)

 

[trainspotter]

I have been travelling the world for the last few years and although we may not live in the most "glamourous" of countries we certainly do live in one of safest, cleanest, beautiful, well run and most importantly, under populated. Further more from all the people that I've met, most dream of or plan on seeing Australia.

We really do live in a country that is the envy of the world with many millions who would love to live here and are trying.

I would not be counting on seeing any (1) significant and (2) permanent falls in property prices in this country, especially in the major capital cities on the East Coast. Not in our lifetime anyway.

The Furure of Australian Property Prices is up. Stagnation or temporary pull backs will be inevitable for sure. But nothing disastrous or permanent.

(Just my own humble opinion)

2 thumbs up for this one.

At last .. somebody who has ACTUALLY left the country and realised how good we have it here.

 

[banco]

I have been travelling the world for the last few years and although we may not live in the most "glamourous" of countries we certainly do live in one of safest, cleanest, beautiful, well run and most importantly, under populated. Further more from all the people that I've met, most dream of or plan on seeing Australia.

We really do live in a country that is the envy of the world with many millions who would love to live here and are trying.

I would not be counting on seeing any (1) significant and (2) permanent falls in property prices in this country, especially in the major capital cities on the East Coast. Not in our lifetime anyway.

The Furure of Australian Property Prices is up. Stagnation or temporary pull backs will be inevitable for sure. But nothing disastrous or permanent.

(Just my own humble opinion)

This is the kind of pablum I'd expect from a poor politician.

 

[Tyler Durden]

The narrowest house on the market in Sydney has sold for $965,000


When the hammer fell on $965,000, making the land worth more than $25,000 per square metre, agents, bidders and onlookers were all left in shock.

With an internal area of 48sq m and a land area of 38sq m, the two-storey Victorian terrace at 29 Terry St, Surry Hills, is roughly the same size as a one-bedroom unit.

Bought by an investor who was bidding over the phone from overseas, the 2.85m wide home now has a new owner.

The bidding opened at a modest $650,000 and quickly whizzed past the $700,000 price guide to land at the final result.


Real estate agent Raymond Hung was bidding on behalf of the successful buyer and said there was no doubt that the market was hot, however this didn’t deter his client.

“It’s not expensive,” Mr Hung said.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/re...-sold-for-965000/story-fni0cly6-1227366582131

I'm assuming the buyer has seen photos of the property, or maybe even seen it in person when he/she was in Australia previously. But doesn't it reek of speculation that someone overseas bidding over the telephone is willing to over pay so much for such a small property? Or maybe desperation to get money out of China?

 

[banco]

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/re...-sold-for-965000/story-fni0cly6-1227366582131

I'm assuming the buyer has seen photos of the property, or maybe even seen it in person when he/she was in Australia previously. But doesn't it reek of speculation that someone overseas bidding over the telephone is willing to over pay so much for such a small property? Or maybe desperation to get money out of China?

Probably the latter.

 

[Mrmagoo]

Hard workers and savers such as myself are getting screwed in favor of lazy speculators who do not want to work !

 

[waterbottle]

Too late waterbottle.



http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...lling-conditions/story-fncq3era-1227365747081

Go talk to this guy about WHERE to buy http://www.wheregroup.com.au/

(I am not affiliated in any way nor do I recommend his services)

Thanks TS! I find it hilarious that a unit in Avoca beach is now similarly priced to units in Canterbury! Apples to oranges I guess.

Yes, I am broadening my search. I don't think it'd be a good idea to purchase a PPOR in Sydney within the next 10 years - this place seems to be changing too fast

 

[Mrmagoo]

2 thumbs up for this one.

At last .. somebody who has ACTUALLY left the country and realised how good we have it here.

There are those societies which are barbaric, which will never evolve, which add nothing to the beauty of humanity and bring only suffering to their own people. We don't compare ourselves to those people.

If you're a born member of the middle class and the dominant ethnic group in almost any western European and when economic conditions are not heavily in our favor you're almost always better off overseas. That is why before the recent boom we had stupid numbers of Australians suddenly remember their grandparent was english and take off to the UK.

Lets drop Aussie wages by 20%, and drop the AUD/EUR to .4 where it used to be and then lets see how wonderful Australia is. We go back to being that poor country full of white people in the middle of Asia that has kangaroos.

 

[waterbottle]

The lifestyle is one thing but the quality of it is another.

The "prices being charged" are set by us, (the market) and are relative.

As I stated at the end of my original post, this is just my own humble opinion, I am in no position to make any type of analysis, even a "silly" one, as you so put it.

I am merely just trying to inject a little bit of common sense in to this ongoing, emotionally charged and passionate debate.

Just like any other market, you can have an unlimited amount of "analysis" being done by the "best" people in the business but in the end, price action, driven by market sentiment are the reality.

My point here is, that the sentiment around the world regarding Australia, is extremely positive. "Envious" even.

Over the long term, there is only one way for property prices to go. Trying to argue about why they can't or shouldn't is "interesting" but expecting them not to, is only going to cause heart ache, when those who look back 30 years from now didn't buy as much as they possibly could. I suspect, that's where a lot of the "bitterness " from some of the posters in this thread comes from.

I just wouldn't bet the house (pun intended), on prices going down. Not significantly or permanently.
Well, not in this great country, anyway 

I appreciate the fact that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but when you attribute the past few decades of house price rises to Australia essentially being heaven, then I think you are just doing yourself and the readers a disservice.
There is nothing about or within Australia that cannot be found elsewhere in the Western world. Vancouver and Toronto have experienced similar rises in house prices - I don't recall them being a part of Australia. A similar phenomenon, albeit now being moderated, is also being experienced in Auckland - another city outside of Australia.

The issue here is credit and asset price inflation. Money has been made more easily accessible ever since central banks began their race to ZIRP. This excess money has found its way into commodities, stock markets and housing.
How this will end up is anyone's guess. I hoped that the bubble would burst post-GFC, but I never expected the Government to pull out all stops to keep prices high.

For me it is not so much bitterness, but disappointment in having watched people and our Government plunge ridiculous amounts of money into unproductive speculation at immense societal and economic cost.

 

[satanoperca]

For me it is not so much bitterness, but disappointment in having watched people and our Government plunge ridiculous amounts of money into unproductive speculation at immense societal and economic cost.

This is the reality and the question must be then asked, will Australia be the heaven that the rest of the world wants in the coming decades?

I have traveled to many countries, lived in a few. I feel Australians are living on luck, rather than hard work, innovation and creativity that made this country great.

Where have our innovators and creators gone, or has our culture become one of complacency.

High property prices bring as much happiness to society in the long term as a good hit of meth brings in the short term.

Cheers

 

[qldfrog]

I have traveled to many countries, lived in a few. I feel Australians are living on luck, rather than hard work, innovation and creativity that made this country great.

+1
And the bubble in RE price has cost so much to this economy, paralysing politics and destroying the root of our own previous successes.
Prettu scary as well how this supposed wealth with high AUD and RE price is so local; most of australians would see their wealth halves should RE halves, and a hige number would be even worse than that due to IP pyramidal schemes.
and no, not bitter 1M$+ home, just sold my residential property.
But caring for Australia: i did not migrated here decades ago to live again the slide to doom experienced in Europe.

 

[trainspotter]

There are those societies which are barbaric, which will never evolve, which add nothing to the beauty of humanity and bring only suffering to their own people. We don't compare ourselves to those people.

If you're a born member of the middle class and the dominant ethnic group in almost any western European and when economic conditions are not heavily in our favor you're almost always better off overseas. That is why before the recent boom we had stupid numbers of Australians suddenly remember their grandparent was english and take off to the UK.

Lets drop Aussie wages by 20%, and drop the AUD/EUR to .4 where it used to be and then lets see how wonderful Australia is. We go back to being that poor country full of white people in the middle of Asia that has kangaroos.

Tell that to Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, France whose unemployment rate is what exactly? Also you might want to look at their property prices

 

[sptrawler]

There are those societies which are barbaric, which will never evolve, which add nothing to the beauty of humanity and bring only suffering to their own people. We don't compare ourselves to those people.

If you're a born member of the middle class and the dominant ethnic group in almost any western European and when economic conditions are not heavily in our favor you're almost always better off overseas. That is why before the recent boom we had stupid numbers of Australians suddenly remember their grandparent was english and take off to the UK.

Lets drop Aussie wages by 20%, and drop the AUD/EUR to .4 where it used to be and then lets see how wonderful Australia is. We go back to being that poor country full of white people in the middle of Asia that has kangaroos.

So with your obvious disenchantment with Australia, why do you stay here?

 

[Mrmagoo]

Tell that to Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, France whose unemployment rate is what exactly? Also you might want to look at their property prices

The lifestyle is better and you are kind of being a bit of a troll because I said when economy circumstances do not favor us heavily. I get tired of responding to these troll posts. I can only assume you're trolling because my post was very clear on this.