The future of Australian property prices

[Mrmagoo]

So with your obvious disenchantment with Australia, why do you stay here?

So your solution is to migrate rather than fix the very fixable problem at home ?


Firstly, the Schengen area has much stricter rules for skilled migrants, secondly I very clearly stated that if you're part of the dominant ethnic group in those countries and economic conditions do not favor us heavily, then you're better off over there.

example :

If I was a German born German with all of the middle class education and middle class contacts that come with being middle classed you would be better off in Germany.

You don't see boat loads of Germans trying to come to Australia. Australia is a good country, but it is not this wonderful paradise where birds **** happiness that some rich old men make it out to be. Growth in home prices has been because of easy credit, and China. We are one of few nations that allow them to invest with impunity.

 

[trainspotter]

The lifestyle is better and you are kind of being a bit of a troll because I said when economy circumstances do not favor us heavily. I get tired of responding to these troll posts. I can only assume you're trolling because my post was very clear on this.

The lifestyle is better ?? HOW??? Not what I saw when I was there. People selling veges out of foam boxes in their front window to make a few $$$. A couple of chickens in the back yard for eggs. Men sitting around idly at cafe's and bars with no work to be had. Houses boarded up and derelict. No sanitation in the way of garbage removal from the streets. Shopping centres with 50% empty shops. Yep .. the "lifestyle" is so much better.

I can only assume by the tone of your post you have not taken your meds in the last week.

And what the hell is "economy circumstances do not favor us heavily"

If the macro and micro economic circumstances are not good in Australia you can bet the sheep station that things are pretty SH!TE in Europe.

 

[Mrmagoo]

The lifestyle is better ?? HOW??? Not what I saw when I was there. People selling veges out of foam boxes in their front window to make a few $$$. A couple of chickens in the back yard for eggs. Men sitting around idly at cafe's and bars with no work to be had. Houses boarded up and derelict. No sanitation in the way of garbage removal from the streets. Shopping centres with 50% empty shops. Yep .. the "lifestyle" is so much better.

I can only assume by the tone of your post you have not taken your meds in the last week.

And what the hell is "economy circumstances do not favor us heavily"

If the macro and micro economic circumstances are not good in Australia you can bet the sheep station that things are pretty SH!TE in Europe.

I am not sure if you could be any more racist if you tried. Do you think all Europeans just sit around being unemployed ? Germany has an unemployment rate LOWER than Australia's. As do many other European nations, including the czech republic, norway, switzerland and the UK. Who also have lower house prices.

House prices AND unemployment rates are lower in Germany. They also have a vastly more developed country. Paradise my ass.

 

[waterbottle]

The lifestyle is better ?? HOW??? Not what I saw when I was there. People selling veges out of foam boxes in their front window to make a few $$$. A couple of chickens in the back yard for eggs. Men sitting around idly at cafe's and bars with no work to be had. Houses boarded up and derelict. No sanitation in the way of garbage removal from the streets. Shopping centres with 50% empty shops. Yep .. the "lifestyle" is so much better.

I can only assume by the tone of your post you have not taken your meds in the last week.

And what the hell is "economy circumstances do not favor us heavily"

If the macro and micro economic circumstances are not good in Australia you can bet the sheep station that things are pretty SH!TE in Europe.

To be fair, the countries that you listed had been hugely impacted by the GFC, entered recession or are on the border all whilst being members of an economic zone that seems be slowly spiraling downwards.
Meanwhile, Australia has been attached to China's bossom for the past 15+ years and has had massive, continuous growth with no severe recessions.

Nobody knows what Australia will look like when we finally enter a proper recession (i.e. no massive stimulus, no budget surplus, no stimulatory China). It could be worse or better than the countries you listed, but I doubt that many Australians will maintain their current standard of living except for the wealthy.

 

[Klogg]

Nobody knows what Australia will look like when we finally enter a proper recession (i.e. no massive stimulus, no budget surplus, no stimulatory China). It could be worse or better than the countries you listed, but I doubt that many Australians will maintain their current standard of living except for the wealthy.

Spot on. Nobody can be certain of the outcome either way, but they can avoid the risks where they see them.

And this is the problem with the majority of the discussions had around housing. It's either it will or won't crash, not identification and mitigation of risks. Obviously if everyone was out to mitigate risk, the level of leverage on residential property wouldn't be where it is today.

 

[trainspotter]

I am not sure if you could be any more racist if you tried. Do you think all Europeans just sit around being unemployed ? Germany has an unemployment rate LOWER than Australia's. As do many other European nations, including the czech republic, norway, switzerland and the UK. Who also have lower house prices.

House prices AND unemployment rates are lower in Germany. They also have a vastly more developed country. Paradise my ass.

So first of all you called me a troll and now I am a racist. I responded to your outlandish claim that:-

If you're a born member of the middle class and the dominant ethnic group in almost any western European and when economic conditions are not heavily in our favor you're almost always better off overseas.

I pointed out that you were blatantly WRONG in this statement. You are not BETTER OFF overseas. You ever been to Europe Magoo? Slip on down to Monte Estoril or Cascais and have a good look around. This where the "rich" are supposed to live. NOT WHAT I SAW !! You might learn something about "Europe". Not satisfied there? Go to Tarifa or Seville in Spain to broaden your outlook. The "lifestyle" is better? Pfffffffffffffffffffftttt !

I think you need to check the dosage of your medication there before you make more observations that do not have a ring of truth to them.

Then you wrote this:-

I am not sure if you could be any more racist if you tried. Do you think all Europeans just sit around being unemployed ?

This is what I observed in the countries that I visited ALL THROUGH Europe. So I am racist profiling because I am telling the truth? It is their "lifestyle" remember that you are after. Half of frickin Spain shuts down for "siesta" in the afternoon. Yeahhhh ... that's the "lifestyle" for me. As for the "other" European countries you mentioned having lower unemployment rates have a look at the population compared to Australia and then have a look at the "average" wage compared to Australia to support your ridiculous cherry picking claims.

Germany = 80,000,000 people
Australia = 23,000,000 people

In Germany the gap between rich and the poor is this ... the top 20% of the population earn more than four times as much as the bottom 20% Oh and you might want to check on the tax laws as well ...

Then you went on with this gem:-

As do many other European nations, including the czech republic, norway, switzerland and the UK. Who also have lower house prices.

Ermmmmmm you do realise that nearly all of the population of the countries you have listed live in either apartments, town houses or villas. They do not have "suburbs" similar to Australia whereby Mum & Dad buy a block of land close to the city and build a house of their own choice to live in. Green titles and white picket fences and fricking McMansions are the norm in Australia. You don't have that in Europe. It's either a HUGE apartment block or a villa behind a gated community. Compare Berlin prices to Sydney prices and see how you go champ.

Just like you I am tired of people like yourself making inane comments in this thread on a subject matter they clearly know nothing about. I bid you adieu as this will be the last time I respond to your nonsense.

 

[trainspotter]

To be fair, the countries that you listed had been hugely impacted by the GFC, entered recession or are on the border all whilst being members of an economic zone that seems be slowly spiraling downwards.
Meanwhile, Australia has been attached to China's bossom for the past 15+ years and has had massive, continuous growth with no severe recessions.

Nobody knows what Australia will look like when we finally enter a proper recession (i.e. no massive stimulus, no budget surplus, no stimulatory China). It could be worse or better than the countries you listed, but I doubt that many Australians will maintain their current standard of living except for the wealthy.

Completely agree waterbottle. Australia is MORE than just Sydney and Melbourne. In just about ALL the rest of Australia you will find it has already declined to the point of mortgage stress in MANY areas. That is a given. Some areas of regional Australia have declined in value by 30% from pre GFC values. Shops ARE shutting. The velocity of money through the economy is slowing. It has started already.

*GOSH* the little Aussie battler might have to stop driving the SS commodore and NOT have the latest 60 inch LCD curved 3 D TV stuck on the bedroom wall. A reality check is what is needed for the people who live in this great country. Go to Europe, go to America, go to a third world country and LOOK at how good we have it here before whinging "Oh woe is me I cant afford to buy a HOUSE right next door to where I work"

 

[sptrawler]

Completely agree waterbottle. Australia is MORE than just Sydney and Melbourne. In just about ALL the rest of Australia you will find it has already declined to the point of mortgage stress in MANY areas. That is a given. Some areas of regional Australia have declined in value by 30% from pre GFC values. Shops ARE shutting. The velocity of money through the economy is slowing. It has started already.

*GOSH* the little Aussie battler might have to stop driving the SS commodore and NOT have the latest 60 inch LCD curved 3 D TV stuck on the bedroom wall. A reality check is what is needed for the people who live in this great country. Go to Europe, go to America, go to a third world country and LOOK at how good we have it here before whinging "Oh woe is me I cant afford to buy a HOUSE right next door to where I work"

Spot on TS, not that you are allowed to say it.

There would have been smelling salts all round this morning, when the novice property investors were reading the paper, over weeties.

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/28239740/tax-clampdown-on-landlords/

"Mum what was that crash?" "Nothing dear, dad just fainted on the kitchen floor, choking on his weeties"

 

[banco]

*GOSH* the little Aussie battler might have to stop driving the SS commodore and NOT have the latest 60 inch LCD curved 3 D TV stuck on the bedroom wall. A reality check is what is needed for the people who live in this great country. Go to Europe, go to America, go to a third world country and LOOK at how good we have it here before whinging "Oh woe is me I cant afford to buy a HOUSE right next door to where I work"

You tell them Ted.

 

[trainspotter]

The Kingswood ... you're not taking the bloody Kingswood!

 

[Mrmagoo]

Completely agree waterbottle. Australia is MORE than just Sydney and Melbourne. In just about ALL the rest of Australia you will find it has already declined to the point of mortgage stress in MANY areas. That is a given. Some areas of regional Australia have declined in value by 30% from pre GFC values. Shops ARE shutting. The velocity of money through the economy is slowing. It has started already.

*GOSH* the little Aussie battler might have to stop driving the SS commodore and NOT have the latest 60 inch LCD curved 3 D TV stuck on the bedroom wall. A reality check is what is needed for the people who live in this great country. Go to Europe, go to America, go to a third world country and LOOK at how good we have it here before whinging "Oh woe is me I cant afford to buy a HOUSE right next door to where I work"

Retail figures show this is not what is happening. The only people buying big ticket items are asset rich baby boomers. You're completely out of touch. Just because YOU have lived a life of excess and largesse doesn't mean that is the standard for Australia. Most work hard and save over many years to have what little they do have. The same as in Europe. Some people take out big debts and appear to have a flashy life-style but they're just living on borrowed time.

To suggest that high house prices are because Australia is somehow a superior place to live compared to anywhere else is just ludicrous, it is not the best place in the world to live and high house prices have been caused by foreign investment, credit growth, government policy and SMSF.

I'll agree if you're a baby boomer or X'er who simply rode the asset booms and did almost no work* to accumulate their money other than buying houses then the picture looks a bit different that what it does if you're a hard worker.

*(although in their little minds making the minimal repayments on their 1.5X annual income home was a big sacrifice)

 

[Mrmagoo]

So first of all you called me a troll and now I am a racist. I responded to your outlandish claim that:-



I pointed out that you were blatantly WRONG in this statement. You are not BETTER OFF overseas. You ever been to Europe Magoo? Slip on down to Monte Estoril or Cascais and have a good look around. This where the "rich" are supposed to live. NOT WHAT I SAW !! You might learn something about "Europe". Not satisfied there? Go to Tarifa or Seville in Spain to broaden your outlook. The "lifestyle" is better? Pfffffffffffffffffffftttt !

I think you need to check the dosage of your medication there before you make more observations that do not have a ring of truth to them.

Then you wrote this:-

This is what I observed in the countries that I visited ALL THROUGH Europe. So I am racist profiling because I am telling the truth? It is their "lifestyle" remember that you are after. Half of frickin Spain shuts down for "siesta" in the afternoon. Yeahhhh ... that's the "lifestyle" for me. As for the "other" European countries you mentioned having lower unemployment rates have a look at the population compared to Australia and then have a look at the "average" wage compared to Australia to support your ridiculous cherry picking claims.

Germany = 80,000,000 people
Australia = 23,000,000 people

In Germany the gap between rich and the poor is this ... the top 20% of the population earn more than four times as much as the bottom 20% Oh and you might want to check on the tax laws as well ...

Then you went on with this gem:-



Ermmmmmm you do realise that nearly all of the population of the countries you have listed live in either apartments, town houses or villas. They do not have "suburbs" similar to Australia whereby Mum & Dad buy a block of land close to the city and build a house of their own choice to live in. Green titles and white picket fences and fricking McMansions are the norm in Australia. You don't have that in Europe. It's either a HUGE apartment block or a villa behind a gated community. Compare Berlin prices to Sydney prices and see how you go champ.

Just like you I am tired of people like yourself making inane comments in this thread on a subject matter they clearly know nothing about. I bid you adieu as this will be the last time I respond to your nonsense.

Australia is just as unequal if not more unequal than any European nation. The difference is that we do it through asset prices and locking our youth out of home ownership and by giving unfair tax breaks to the rich.

I have family who were born in Europe, their children (my cousins) have and continue to live and work in Europe. You need to understand we pay insane premiums for so many things in Australia that with our $20 an hour basic wage, you're probably realistically eating up $15 an hour of it in basic costs.

Sure, if you're a boomer on 100k a year with a partner on the same and you already own a home due to buying cheap then you're obviously very rich. Few non-boomers non-early-X'ers fall into that category.

The sustainability of it all is built on the assumption of future growth, which means it will only get worse for people the younger they are.

 

[Tyler Durden]

This will be interesting to see...

AFTER the shock sale price of Surry Hills’s skinny house on Saturday, it’s equally skinny neighbour has now hit the market.

With 29 Terry St selling under the hammer for $965,000, shocking agents and onlookers alike, 31 Terry St will be trying to match or better that result.

http://www.news.com.au/national/the...w-hit-the-market/story-e6frfkp9-1227372730703

 

[Mrmagoo]

lol... looking out that window... sydney paradise... haha what a joke.

 

[trainspotter]

Beware the Ides of March ... (or how to lose 200k without trying)

MEDIAN house prices in the Pilbara town of Karratha have plunged almost 34 per cent as the mining downturn prompts residents to leave.
Real Estate Institute of Western Australia data for the year to March shows the average price in Karratha has fallen to $450,000. That compares to $650,000 in the March quarter last year.

http://www.news.com.au/finance/real...e-in-was-pilbara/story-fndbaln9-1227370424077

Sooner or later Godwins Law will come into play ....



First the Northwest of Australia then Sydney's turn is next

And now to inject some intelligence back into this thread ...

"House prices and housing investment are now rising in over half of the OECD economies. In Europe, strong house price growth is continuing in Germany (based on data from the big cities) and Switzerland, and has also resumed in the United Kingdom, even though UK prices are already above longer-term norms relative to rents and incomes. Markets remain softer in other parts of the euro area, reflecting weak income growth and tighter financing conditions.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...pest-and-most-expensive-property-markets.html

Notice how they quantified their bold statement thusly (based on data from the big cities) ... much like Australia really now isn't it. Take out the ridiculously overheated markets in the "big cities" (read Sydney & Melbourne] Except for the "lifestyle" is much better over there in Europe. As long as you are employed that is.

Aaaaaaah the sheer bliss of living in a country where house prices NEVER go down eh?

 

[wayneL]

How are things going in Gero TS?

 

[sptrawler]

How are things going in Gero TS?

As with all places in W.A, softening.

 

[trainspotter]

How are things going in Gero TS?

Softer than a Mr Whippy ice cream cone wayneL. Anything above 500k is taking 6 to 8 months to sell and generally below replacement value or vendor taking a haircut. In general I would say a 15 to 20 percent drop across the board from 2007 prices. In other words it has corrected to where it should have been all along. Commercial values are still strong but rental income is down to around 90/m2 for shed space and about 150m2 for cbd shop front.

Something must be going to happen in the next 5 years that I don't know about as a BIG food retail chain has purchased 18 acres to develop in a Northern suburb that is yet to be developed. There are 2000 blocks to be placed on the ground. Earthworks had started already. Hong Kong hedge fund is behind the sub division. They are talking about a 2019 start date for the complex ?? 89 specialty shops as well as the junk food outlets given a corner each.

 

[rryall]

Went to check out this Auction in Preston VIC today..

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-preston-119688615

Advertised between $470k-$520k. Watch a young Australian couple with a baby go head to head with about 5 to 10 foreigners investors. They were priced out almost immediately and it ended up selling to a what one can only assume was a Chinese foreigner for $727k which was almost $200k over reserve. I understand this is on a large block 492m2 but think these examples are a national disgrace. As I watched them bid it was like money was no object..

My take on cases such as these are the following in no particular order:

1) When I purchase my first home in next 12m I'll be steering well clear of properties that are favourable with foreigners (i.e. eastern suburbs and large inner city blocks where the property will be domolished and are simply paying for the land)

2) How come there are NO checking mechanisms in place on foreign purchases? How difficult it is to have a registrar in place to make sure any purchase of existing property is solely for Australian residents and companies/trusts etc. When a foreign student purchases an exisiting property (which they shouldn't even be allowed to do) what checks are done to make sure they are sold on departure? When the point piper mansion which was sold for $39 million earlier this year was found to be an illegal purchase the agents said they thought it was an Australian company making the purchase. What a complete joke. There appears to more identity checks for welfare (after my recent visit to centrelink to get carers allowance for my mum) than there is for property purchases.

The Australian economy appears to be heading towards the toilet yet Australian property continually bucks the trend. Real wages growth is currently negative and although our public debt is low compared globally our (government guaranteed) private debt is ludicrous. When is Australia going to wake up and look at increasing productivity (NOT via population growth) instead of going down the path of astronomically high house prices which is non-productive and simply creates additional debt.

Apologies for the rant but as a young professional I'm becoming less patriotic by the day...

 

[MrBurns]

Went to check out this Auction in Preston VIC today..

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-preston-119688615

Advertised between $470k-$520k. Watch a young Australian couple with a baby go head to head with about 5 to 10 foreigners investors. They were priced out almost immediately and it ended up selling to a what one can only assume was a Chinese foreigner for $727k which was almost $200k over reserve. I understand this is on a large block 492m2 but think these examples are a national disgrace. As I watched them bid it was like money was no object..

...

It is a disgrace...

Why is nothing done ? because Govt is useless at anything except milking the public dry.

Property is in a bubble and all bubbles eventually burst, I hope China goes bad and these foreigners have to sell in a hurry......wishful thinking.